Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Resigned but satisfied: The negative impact of public service motivation and red tape on work satisfaction

This article examines the relationship between red tape, Public Service Motivation (PSM) and a particular work outcome labelled 'resigned satisfaction'. Using data from a national survey of over 3754 public servants working at the municipal level in Switzerland, this study shows the importance of looking more closely at the concept of work satisfaction and, furthermore, of thoroughly investigating the impact of the different PSM dimensions on work outcomes. Unsurprisingly, research findings show that red tape is the most important predictor of resignation. Nevertheless, when PSM dimensions are analysed separately, results demonstrate that 'commitment to public interest/civic duty' and, to a lesser extent, 'attraction to policy-making' decrease resignation, whereas 'compassion' and 'self-sacrifice' increase it. This study thus highlights some of the negative (or undesirable) effects of PSM that have not been previously addressed in PSM literature.

Objective evaluation of shoulder function using body-fixed sensors: a new way to detect early treatment failures?

Background: Variable definitions of outcome (Constant score, Simple Shoulder Test [SST]) have been used to assess outcome after shoulder treatment, although none has been accepted as the universal standard. Physicians lack an objective method to reliably assess the activity of their patients in dynamic conditions. Our purpose was to clinically validate the shoulder kinematic scores given by a portable movement analysis device, using the activities of daily living described in the SST as a reference. The secondary objective was to determine whether this device could be used to document the effectiveness of shoulder treatments (for glenohumeral osteoarthritis and rotator cuff disease) and detect early failures.Methods: A clinical trial including 34 patients and a control group of 31 subjects over an observation period of 1 year was set up. Evaluations were made at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery by 2 independent observers. Miniature sensors (3-dimensional gyroscopes and accelerometers) allowed kinematic scores to be computed. They were compared with the regular outcome scores: SST; Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand; American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons; and Constant.Results: Good to excellent correlations (0.61-0.80) were found between kinematics and clinical scores. Significant differences were found at each follow-up in comparison with the baseline status for all the kinematic scores (P < .015). The kinematic scores were able to point out abnormal patient outcomes at the first postoperative follow-up.Conclusion: Kinematic scores add information to the regular outcome tools. They offer an effective way to measure the functional performance of patients with shoulder pathology and have the potential to detect early treatment failures.Level of evidence: Level II, Development of Diagnostic Criteria, Diagnostic Study. (C) 2011 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees.

Policy Environment and Public Service Motivation

This article analyzes whether and to what extent the policy environment of civil servants has an impact on their level of Public Service Motivation (PSM). It hypothesizes that public employees working in different policy domains and stages of the policy cycle are diversely motivated by four PSM orientations (Compassion, Commitment to the public interest, Self-sacrifice and Attraction to politics). The empirical results are based on a survey of 6885 Swiss civil servants. They show that those in charge of Welfare State policies are inclined to have higher levels of 'Compassion', whereas those performing core state functions report lower levels. Furthermore, employees whose main tasks are related to policy formulation display high levels of the 'Attraction to politics' dimension of PSM. This study questions the generalization of previous findings on PSM that are based on heterogeneous survey populations.

Independent contribution of parental migrant status and educational level to adiposity and eating habits in preschool children.

Background/Objective:Little is known about the precise role of parental migrant status (MS) and educational level (EL) on adiposity and various eating habits in young children. Therefore, we assessed their independent contribution in preschoolers.Subjects/Methods:Of 655 randomly selected preschoolers, 542 (5.1±0.6 years; 71% of parental MS and 37% of low parental EL) were analysed. Body composition was measured by bioelectrical impedance. Eating habits were assessed using a semiqualitative food frequency questionnaire and analysed according to five messages developed by the Swiss Society for Nutrition, based on factors implicated in childhood obesity: (1) 'Drinking water and decreasing sweetened drinks', (2) 'Eating fruit and vegetables', (3) 'Decreasing breakfast skipping', (4) 'Reducing fatty and sweet foods' and (5) 'Reducing the intake of meals and snacks in front of television'.Results:Children of migrant and low EL parents had higher body fat, ate more meals and snacks while watching television and had more fruit and fatty foods compared with their respective counterparts (all P0.04). Children of low EL parents also consumed less water and vegetables compared with their counterparts (all P0.04). In most instances, we found an independent contribution of parental MS and EL to adiposity and eating habits. A more pronounced effect was found if both parents were migrants or of low EL. Differences in adiposity and eating habits were relatively similar to the joint parental data when assessed individually for maternal and paternal MS and EL.Conclusions:Parental MS and EL are independently related to adiposity and various eating habits in preschoolers.European Journal of Clinical Nutrition advance online publication, 3 November 2010; doi:10.1038/ejcn.2010.248.

Feasibility Study on Proposed Amtrak service from Chicago, to Iowa City, Iowa via Quad Cities, December 5, 2007

Soon after the Illinois Department of Transportation (“Ill. DOT”) requested Amtrak to conduct a feasibility study on proposed Amtrak service between Chicago and the Illinois Quad Cities, the Iowa Department of Transportation (“Iowa DOT”) asked that the study be extended to Iowa City and later to Des Moines. This report examines the feasibility of extending service to Iowa City. The completed report for the proposed Chicago – Quad Cities’ service was delivered to Ill. DOT in early January 2008. It assumes a stand-alone train operation strictly within the State of Illinois and makes no reference to extending the service into the State of Iowa. Therefore, there is no discussion about potential cost sharing allocations for capital improvements or operating losses between the two states which will become a matter of future negotiations between the two jurisdictions. That being said, this report on extending the service to Iowa City is simply an addendum to the Quad Cities report and covers such topics as additional capital infrastructure improvements that would be required in Iowa, impacts on operating expenses, revised ridership and revenue projections, and the like. With one minor exception, the recommended level of capital improvements within Illinois will still be required if the service to Iowa City is initiated. It is thus important for the readers of this report to refer to the Illinois study for detailed information on that state’s portion of the route alternatives.

Pro-adrenomedullin usefulness in the management of children with community-acquired pneumonia, a preliminary prospective observational study

BackgroundIn adult population with community acquired pneumonia high levels of pro-adrenomedullin (pro-ADM) have been shown to be predictors of worse prognosis. The role of this biomarker in pediatric patients had not been analyzed to date. The objective of this study is to know the levels of pro-ADM in children with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) and analyze the relation between these levels and the patients¿ prognosis.FindingsProspective observational study including patients attended in the emergency service (January to October 2009) admitted to hospital with CAP and no complications at admission. The values for pro-ADM were analyzed in relation to: need for oxygen therapy, duration of oxygen therapy, fever and antibiotic therapy, complications, admission to the intensive care unit, and length of hospital stay. Fifty patients were included. Ten presented complications (7 pleural effusion). The median level of pro-ADM was 1.0065¿nmol/L (range 0.3715 to 7.2840¿nmol/L). The patients presenting complications had higher levels of pro-ADM (2.3190 vs. 1.1758¿nmol/L, p¿=¿0.013). Specifically, the presence of pleural effusion was associated with higher levels of pro-ADM (2.9440 vs. 1.1373¿nmol/L, p¿<¿0.001).ConclusionsIn our sample of patients admitted to hospital with CAP, pro-ADM levels are related to the development of complications during hospitalization.

Physical activity level and health-related quality of life in the general adult population: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known regarding health-related quality of life and its relation with physical activity level in the general population. Our primary objective was to systematically review data examining this relationship. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO for health-related quality of life and physical activity related keywords in titles, abstracts, or indexing fields. RESULTS: From 1426 retrieved references, 55 citations were judged to require further evaluation. Fourteen studies were retained for data extraction and analysis; seven were cross-sectional studies, two were cohort studies, four were randomized controlled trials and one used a combined cross sectional and longitudinal design. Thirteen different methods of physical activity assessment were used. Most health-related quality of life instruments related to the Medical Outcome Study SF-36 questionnaire. Cross-sectional studies showed a consistently positive association between self-reported physical activity and health-related quality of life. The largest cross-sectional study reported an adjusted odds ratio of "having 14 or more unhealthy days" during the previous month to be 0.40 (95% Confidence Interval 0.36-0.45) for those meeting recommended levels of physical activity compared to inactive subjects. Cohort studies and randomized controlled trials tended to show a positive effect of physical activity on health-related quality of life, but similar to the cross-sectional studies, had methodological limitations. CONCLUSION: Cross-sectional data showed a consistently positive association between physical activity level and health-related quality of life. Limited evidence from randomized controlled trials and cohort studies precludes a definitive statement about the nature of this association.

Using spatially distributed parameters and multi-response objective functions to solve parameterization of complex applications of semi-distributed hydrological models

Application of semi-distributed hydrological models to large, heterogeneous watersheds deals with several problems. On one hand, the spatial and temporal variability in catchment features should be adequately represented in the model parameterization, while maintaining the model complexity in an acceptable level to take advantage of state-of-the-art calibration techniques. On the other hand, model complexity enhances uncertainty in adjusted model parameter values, therefore increasing uncertainty in the water routing across the watershed. This is critical for water quality applications, where not only streamflow, but also a reliable estimation of the surface versus subsurface contributions to the runoff is needed. In this study, we show how a regularized inversion procedure combined with a multiobjective function calibration strategy successfully solves the parameterization of a complex application of a water quality-oriented hydrological model. The final value of several optimized parameters showed significant and consistentdifferences across geological and landscape features. Although the number of optimized parameters was significantly increased by the spatial and temporal discretization of adjustable parameters, the uncertainty in water routing results remained at reasonable values. In addition, a stepwise numerical analysis showed that the effects on calibration performance due to inclusion of different data types in the objective function could be inextricably linked. Thus caution should be taken when adding or removing data from an aggregated objective function.

La salut reproductiva de la dona immigrant: una anàlisi des de la influència cultural

El progressiu increment del flux migratori en els darrers anys a Catalunya genera un major percentatge de dones en estat fèrtil que requereixen d’una atenció vinculada a la seva salut reproductiva. D’aquesta manera, els professionals sanitaris es veuen sotmesos a treballar sota una diversitat cultural que moltes vegades genera un “xoc intercultural” dificultant la relació assistencial entre professional i usuari. Per aquest motiu, el següent estudi pretén donar una aproximació de la influència cultural de la dona immigrant (marroquina i subsahariana) en quatre àmbits: embaràs, part, post-part i maternitat.Hipòtesis: S’identifiquen necessitats bàsiques assistencials no resoltes satisfactòriament en el grup de dones immigrants (marroquines i subsaharianes) en el període del part, puerperi immediat i intermedi, a més d’un impacte intercultural associat.Objectiu principal: Conèixer les vivències, percepcions i conductes de les dones marroquines i subsaharianes en l’embaràs, el part, el post-part, la maternitat dins el seu marc cultural i com influeixen en l’atenció sanitària del nostre país.Material i mètodes: S’ha realitzat un estudi de disseny mixt. Per una banda s’ha disposat d’una metodologia qualitativa descriptiva que utilitza la teoria fonamentada “Grounded Theory” com a instrument metodològic, i per l’altra, s’ha optat per una metodologia quantitativa per analitzar les dades clíniques i epidemiològiques de gestants immigrants que havien donat a llum al Servei d’Obstetrícia-Sala de Parts de l’Hospital Sta. Caterina (Girona), durant el període comprès entre el mes de novembre de 2012 i gener de 2013.La recollida de dades s’ha realitzat sota una entrevista semiestructurada i una observació participant com a instruments qualitatius, i el suport del “carnet de l’embaràs” i la “història obstètrica” de cada dona per elaborar l’estudi quantitatiu. Pel que fa a l’anàlisi de les dades en l’estudi qualitatiu s’ha seguit el procés analític plantejat per la Teoria fonamentada i en el cas de l’estudi quantitatiu, s’ha comptatamb el suport d’una tesi doctoral per comparar els resultats amb els de les dones autòctones, dels quals fa referència la tesi.Resultats: En l’estudi qualitatiu, s’han trobat especificitats culturals en relació a la percepció del part, desenvolupament del part ( a nivell conductual), implicació en el post-part, valoració de l’atenció sanitària rebuda i el concepte de maternitat. Pel que fa a l’estudi quantitatiu comparatiu, s’han indentificat diferències entre el col·lectiu de la mostra estudiada i les dones autòctones referent als antecedents obstètrics i paritat, al control gestacional i al desenvolupament del part ( a nivell fisiològic)

Gene expression patterns unveil a new level of molecular heterogeneity in colorectal cancer.

The recognition that colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogeneous disease in terms of clinical behaviour and response to therapy translates into an urgent need for robust molecular disease subclassifiers that can explain this heterogeneity beyond current parameters (MSI, KRAS, BRAF). Attempts to fill this gap are emerging. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TGCA) reported two main CRC groups, based on the incidence and spectrum of mutated genes, and another paper reported an EMT expression signature defined subgroup. We performed a prior free analysis of CRC heterogeneity on 1113 CRC gene expression profiles and confronted our findings to established molecular determinants and clinical, histopathological and survival data. Unsupervised clustering based on gene modules allowed us to distinguish at least five different gene expression CRC subtypes, which we call surface crypt-like, lower crypt-like, CIMP-H-like, mesenchymal and mixed. A gene set enrichment analysis combined with literature search of gene module members identified distinct biological motifs in different subtypes. The subtypes, which were not derived based on outcome, nonetheless showed differences in prognosis. Known gene copy number variations and mutations in key cancer-associated genes differed between subtypes, but the subtypes provided molecular information beyond that contained in these variables. Morphological features significantly differed between subtypes. The objective existence of the subtypes and their clinical and molecular characteristics were validated in an independent set of 720 CRC expression profiles. Our subtypes provide a novel perspective on the heterogeneity of CRC. The proposed subtypes should be further explored retrospectively on existing clinical trial datasets and, when sufficiently robust, be prospectively assessed for clinical relevance in terms of prognosis and treatment response predictive capacity. Original microarray data were uploaded to the ArrayExpress database (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/arrayexpress/) under Accession Nos E-MTAB-990 and E-MTAB-1026. © 2013 Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics. Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

Factors associated with 56-day non-return rate in dairy cattle

The objective of this work was to identify factors associated with the 56-day non-return rate (56-NRR) in dairy herds in the Galician region, Spain, and to estimate it for individual Holstein bulls. The experiment was carried out in herds originated from North-West Spain, from September 2008 to August 2009. Data of the 76,440 first inseminations performed during this period were gathered. Candidate factors were tested for their association with the 56-NRR by using a logistic model (binomial). Afterwards, 37 sires with a minimum of 150 first performed inseminations were individually evaluated. Logistic models were also estimated for each bull, and predicted individual 56-NRR rate values were calculated as a solution for the model parameters. Logistic regression found four major factors associated with 56-NRR in lactating cows: age at insemination, days from calving to insemination, milk production level at the time of insemination, and herd size. First-service conception rate, when a particular sire was used, was higher for heifers (0.71) than for lactating cows (0.52). Non-return rates were highly variable among bulls. Asignificant part of the herd-level variation of 56-NRR of Holstein cattle seems attributable to the service sire. High correlation level between observed and predicted 56-NRR was found.

Investigation of Rapid Thermal Analysis Procedures for Prediction of the Service Life of PCCP Carbonate Coarse Aggregate: Phase I, Progress Report, HR-337, 1992

The major objective of this research project is to utilize thermal analysis techniques in conjunction with x-ray analysis methods to identify and explain chemical reactions that promote aggregate related deterioration in Portland cement concrete. The first year of this project has been spent obtaining and analyzing limestone and dolomite samples that exhibit a wide range of field service performance. Most of the samples chosen for the study also had laboratory durability test information (ASTM C 666, method B) that was readily available. Preliminary test results indicate that a strong relationship exists between the average crystallite size of the limestone (calcite) specimens and their apparent decomposition temperatures as measured by thermogravimetric analysis. Also, premature weight loss in the thermogravimetric analysis tests appeared to be related to the apparent decomposition temperature of the various calcite test specimens.