Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Visual vertigo: an observational case series of eleven patients.

BACKGROUND: Dizziness is a common symptom which is frequently due to either peripheral or central vestibular dysfunction. However, some patients may lack typical signs suggesting a vestibular or cerebellar lesion and they mostly complain of vertigo or posture imbalance induced by visual stimulation. The symptoms immediately improve either on cessation of the visual input or upon closure of the eyes. Such a presentation is typical of visual vertigo. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 1993 to 2003, 242 patients were examined for either "vertigo" or "dizziness". The diagnosis of visual vertigo was based on both history and clinical examination and was present in 11 patients. RESULTS: Visual vertigo was diagnosed in 11/242 patients (4.5 %). Age range was 31 - 77 years (mean 47 years) with a sex ratio of 8 females for 3 males. Neuro-ophthalmological examination was normal in all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Visual vertigo is not a rare condition but the disease is underdiagnosed. The symptoms result from a mismatch between vestibular, proprioceptive and visual inputs. Neuro-ophthalmological, neurological and neuro-otological examination are often normal or not relevant and the diagnosis is largely based on history. It is important to recognize this entity because the symptoms might improve if the patients are treated with psycho-motor rehabilitation.

Metadifferentiation of iris nevi after iridectomy: a clinicopathological small case series

Abstract Purpose Iridectomy of suspicious pigmented tumors provides the presumed advantage of both a histopathological diagnosis and treatment of the lesion. We present 2 patients that developed an iris melanoma with extrascleral extension at the site of their iridectomy of a histopathologically proven nevus, 46 and 2.5 years later. Methods Retrospective, clinicopathological small case series of 2 patients. Results Two patients underwent iridectomy for a suspicious tumor, the first in 1963 and the second in 2006. Pathological diagnosis was a benign and a borderline nevus respectively. In 2009, both patients presented with a recurrent melanocytic iridociliary tumor with an extrascleral extension adjacent to the surgical scar. Pathological examination confirmed melanoma. Consequently, the two patients underwent proton beam therapy of the whole anterior segment, with limbus deposition and reposition. Conclusion Iridectomy of a histopathologically proven nevus doesn't exclude the possibility of a metadifferentiation of remaining nevus cells into melanoma, even after 46 years. Additionally, treatment in case of a recurrence is more complicated than a primary radiotherapy of the unbiopsied iris tumor, with clinical proof of growth, would have been.

Choroidal schwannoma: a case series of five patients.

AIM: To report a case series of five patients diagnosed with choroidal schwannoma at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre. METHODS: Patients with choroidal schwannoma were identified by searching the computerised database of the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre. RESULTS: The patients (3 males, 2 females) ranged in age from 15 years to 45 years. Three tumours were treated by enucleation, trans-scleral local resection, and combined bevacizumab and photodynamic therapy, respectively. Two were observed after confirmation of the diagnosis by biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: Choroidal schwannoma has a variety of clinical manifestations. Associated features include hard exudates, retinal feeder vessels and serous retinal detachment. Biopsy with immunohistochemistry is required for diagnosis. Tumours not amenable to resection may respond to photodynamic therapy.

Des "psychoses affectives" aux "caractéristiques psychotiques" : les symptômes psychotiques selon le DSM, discutés à la lumière d'une série de 16 cas de dépression psychotique = From "affective psychoses" to "psychotic features": DSM's psychoticsymptoms discussed in the light of a series of 16 cases of psychoticdepression.

Objectifs. - Le DSM-5 donne une définition du symptôme psychotique indépendante de tout concept depsychose. Chez les patients dépressifs, la présence d'hallucination ou d'idée délirante, quelle que soit leurforme clinique, conduit en principe à diagnostiquer une dépression psychotique et à prescrire des neurolep-tiques. Les symptômes psychotiques sont subdivisés par le DSM en « congruents » ou « non congruents » àl'humeur. Nous discutons de la pertinence d'une catégorie de symptômes psychotiques « atypiques », peuévocateurs d'une psychose au sens classique du terme. Méthode. - Discussion de la définition opérationnelle des symptômes psychotiques du DSM, étude d'unesérie de 16 patients chez qui un diagnostic de dépression psychotique a été posé. Résultats. - Sur les 16 patients, deux seulement présentaient des symptômes psychotiques classiques, évo-cateurs d'une psychose. Chez les autres, le diagnostic reposait sur la présence de symptômes très atypiques,comme des hallucinations visuelles par exemple.

Systeemihinnan volatiliteetin mallinus Nord Pool -sähkömarkkinoilla

Työssä tarkastellaan, miten Nord Poolin spot-sähkömarkkinoiden systeemihinnan volatiliteetti on kehittynyt kyseisten markkinoiden kehittyessä ja onko volatiliteetin dynamiikkaa mahdollista mallintaa. Systeemihinta toimii referenssihintana sekä itse sähköpörssissä että pörssin ulkopuolella tapahtuvassa johdannaiskaupankäynnissä. Teoriaosassa luodaan katsaus Nord Pool -markkinoiden toimintaan ja systeemihinnan muodostumisen periaatteisiin. Lisäksi tutustutaan sähkön hinta-aikasarjoille tyypillisiin piirteisiin. Volatiliteetin mallinnus tapahtuu autoregressiivistä konditionaalista heteroskedastista (ARCH) mallia sekä sen laajennuksia hyödyntäen. Työn johtopäätöksinä todetaan, että sähkömarkkinoiden volatiliteettia mallinnettaessa tulisi ottaa huomioon hinnan muutosten asymmetrinen vaikutus volatiliteettiin ja volatiliteetin kausittainen vaihtelu. Lisäksi todettiin, etteivätparametrien kertoimet ole vakioita pitkällä aikavälillä tarkasteltaessa volatiliteetin ARCH-mallinnuksessa.

Microcystic Macular Edema in Optic Nerve Atrophy: A Case Series.

Background:Microcystic macular edema can occur after optic neuropathies of various etiologies, and is easily demonstrated by OCT. We report a cohort of patients with microcystic macular edema. Patients and Methods: All patients with optic neuropathy and microcystic macular edema were enrolled. Demographics, visual function, retinal angiographies and OCT parameters were studied. Results: Nineteen patients (23 eyes) exhibited microcystic macular edema: 10 men/9 women, aged 17-91 years. Etiologies of optic nerve atrophy were compressive (5), inflammatory (4), glaucoma (3), ischemic (3), trauma (2), degenerative (1), and hereditary (1). Median visual acuity was 4/10 (NLP-12/10). Fluorescein angiography showed no leakage. Topography of the microcystic macular edema correlated with near infrared images but with visual field defects in only 26 %. OCT parameters were all abnormal. Conclusions: Microcystic macular edema is a non-specific manifestation from an optic neuropathy of any etiology. The precise mechanism leading to microcystic macular edema remains unknown but trans-synaptic retrograde degeneration with Müller cells dysfunction is likely.

Variabilidad espacial del arroz como cultivo indicador de salinidad en regadíos del valle del Ebro a partir de series temporales en imágenes Landsat TM

El presente trabajo pretende la caracterización de la distribución espacial típica del cultivo de arroz en regadíos del valle del Ebro, donde la presencia del cultivo está ligada a la existencia de suelos salino-sódicos. Esta caracterización ha de permitir identificar las áreas donde es típica la presencia del cultivo año tras año y las áreas donde es frecuente su fluctuación debido tanto a condiciones variables de salinidad del suelo como a variabilidad en las condiciones de mercado. Para ello se ha recurrido al análisis de una serie temporal de mapas de cultivos (7 años) derivados de la clasificación supervisada de imágenes Landsat TM. La determinación de las áreas típicas y de fluctuación del cultivo de arroz se hace entonces a partir del análisis estadístico de clases, y mediante superposición espacial de coberturas en un entorno SIG-Raster.

Role of brachytherapy in the treatment of cancers of the anal canal. Long-term follow-up and multivariate analysis of a large monocentric retrospective series.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are few data on long-term clinical results and tolerance of brachytherapy in anal canal cancer. We present one of the largest retrospective analyses of anal canal cancers treated with external beam radiotherapy with/without (±) chemotherapy followed by a brachytherapy boost. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical results in terms of efficacy and toxicity. The impact of different clinical and therapeutic variables on these outcomes was studied. RESULTS: From May 1992 to December 2009, 209 patients received brachytherapy after external beam radiotherapy ± chemotherapy. Of these patients, 163 were stage II or stage IIIA (UICC 2002) and 58 were N1-3. According to age, ECOG performance status (PS), and comorbidities, patients received either radiotherapy alone (58/209) or radiochemotherapy (151/209). The median follow-up was 72.8 months. The 5- and 10-year local control rates were 78.6 and 73.9 %, respectively. Globally, severe acute and late G3-4 reactions (NCI-CTC scale v. 4.0) occurred in 11.2 and 6.3 % of patients, respectively. Univariate analysis showed the statistical impact of the pelvic treatment volume (p = 0.046) and of the total dose (p = 0.02) on the risk of severe acute and late toxicities, respectively. Only six patients required permanent colostomy because of severe late anorectal toxicities. CONCLUSION: After a long follow-up time, brachytherapy showed an acceptable toxicity profile and high local control rates in patients with anal canal cancer.

Genetic consequences of population expansions and contractions in the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) since the Late Pleistocene.

Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has substantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial-drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tremendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1-0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are genetically disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contemporary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.