Work sampling.

Mode of access: Internet.

Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Consequences of incorrect sampling procedures in resonance-based radar target identification

Radar target identification based on complex natural resonances is sometimes achieved by convolving a linear time-domain filter with a received target signature. The filter is constructed from measured or pre-calculated target resonances. The performance of the target identification procedure is degraded if the difference between the sampling rates of the target signature and the filter is ignored. The problem is investigated for the natural extinction pulse technique (E-pulse) for the case of identifying stick models of aircraft.

Passive air sampling theory for semivolatile organic compounds

The mathematical modelling underlying passive air sampling theory can be based on mass transfer coefficients or rate constants. Generally, these models have not been inter-related. Starting with basic models, the exchange of chemicals between the gaseous phase and the sampler is developed using mass transfer coefficients and rate constants. Importantly, the inter-relationships between the approaches are demonstrated by relating uptake rate constants and loss rate constants to mass transfer coefficients when either sampler-side or air-side resistance is dominating chemical exchange. The influence of sampler area and sampler volume on chemical exchange is discussed in general terms and as they relate to frequently used parameters such as sampling rates and time to equilibrium. Where air-side or sampler-side resistance dominates, an increase in the surface area of the sampler will increase sampling rates. Sampling rates are not related to the sampler/air partition coefficient (K-SV) when air-side resistance dominates and increase with K-SV when sampler-side resistance dominates.

Aquatic passive sampling of herbicides on naked particle loaded membranes: Accelerated measurement and empirical estimation of kinetic parameters

Water-sampler equilibrium partitioning coefficients and aqueous boundary layer mass transfer coefficients for atrazine, diuron, hexazionone and fluometuron onto C18 and SDB-RPS Empore disk-based aquatic passive samplers have been determined experimentally under a laminar flow regime (Re = 5400). The method involved accelerating the time to equilibrium of the samplers by exposing them to three water concentrations, decreasing stepwise to 50% and then 25% of the original concentration. Assuming first-order Fickian kinetics across a rate-limiting aqueous boundary layer, both parameters are determined computationally by unconstrained nonlinear optimization. In addition, a method of estimation of mass transfer coefficients-therefore sampling rates-using the dimensionless Sherwood correlation developed for laminar flow over a flat plate is applied. For each of the herbicides, this correlation is validated to within 40% of the experimental data. The study demonstrates that for trace concentrations (sub 0.1 mu g/L) and these flow conditions, a naked Empore disk performs well as an integrative sampler over short deployments (up to 7 days) for the range of polar herbicides investigated. The SDB-RPS disk allows a longer integrative period than the C18 disk due to its higher sorbent mass and/or its more polar sorbent chemistry. This work also suggests that for certain passive sampler designs, empirical estimation of sampling rates may be possible using correlations that have been available in the chemical engineering literature for some time.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: the case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

Lessons learned from INTAMAP, an interoperable web service for the real-time interpolation of environmental variables

Interpolated data are an important part of the environmental information exchange as many variables can only be measured at situate discrete sampling locations. Spatial interpolation is a complex operation that has traditionally required expert treatment, making automation a serious challenge. This paper presents a few lessons learnt from INTAMAP, a project that is developing an interoperable web processing service (WPS) for the automatic interpolation of environmental data using advanced geostatistics, adopting a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The “rainbow box” approach we followed provides access to the functionality at a whole range of different levels. We show here how the integration of open standards, open source and powerful statistical processing capabilities allows us to automate a complex process while offering users a level of access and control that best suits their requirements. This facilitates benchmarking exercises as well as the regular reporting of environmental information without requiring remote users to have specialized skills in geostatistics.

Hybrid sampling on mutual information entropy-based clustering ensembles for optimizations

In this paper, we focus on the design of bivariate EDAs for discrete optimization problems and propose a new approach named HSMIEC. While the current EDAs require much time in the statistical learning process as the relationships among the variables are too complicated, we employ the Selfish gene theory (SG) in this approach, as well as a Mutual Information and Entropy based Cluster (MIEC) model is also set to optimize the probability distribution of the virtual population. This model uses a hybrid sampling method by considering both the clustering accuracy and clustering diversity and an incremental learning and resample scheme is also set to optimize the parameters of the correlations of the variables. Compared with several benchmark problems, our experimental results demonstrate that HSMIEC often performs better than some other EDAs, such as BMDA, COMIT, MIMIC and ECGA. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating the origin of PM2.5 in Baltimore using highly time-resolved organic molecular markers measured during the Baltimore PM-supersite

The detailed organic composition of atmospheric fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is an integral part of the knowledge needed in order to fully characterize its sources and transformation in the environment. For the study presented here, samples were collected at 3-hour intervals. This high time resolution allows gaining unique insights on the influence of short- and long-range transport phenomena, and dynamic atmospheric processes. A specially designed sequential sampler was deployed at the 2002-2003 Baltimore PM-Supersite to collect PM2.5 samples at a 3-hourly resolution for extended periods of consecutive days, during both summer and winter seasons. Established solvent-extraction and GC-MS techniques were used to extract and analyze the organic compounds in 119 samples from each season. Over 100 individual compounds were quantified in each sample. For primary organics, averaging the diurnal ambient concentrations over the sampled periods revealed ambient patterns that relate to diurnal emission patterns of major source classes. Several short-term releases of pollutants from local sources were detected, and local meteorological data was used to pinpoint possible source regions. Biogenic secondary organic compounds were detected as well, and possible mechanisms of formation were evaluated. The relationships between the observed continuous variations of the concentrations of selected organic markers and both the on-site meteorological measurements conducted parallel to the PM2.5 sampling, and the synoptic patterns of weather and wind conditions were also examined. Several one-to-two days episodes were identified from the sequential variation of the concentration observed for specific marker compounds and markers ratios. The influence of the meteorological events on the concentrations of the organic compounds during selected episodes was discussed. It was observed that during the summer, under conditions of pervasive influence of air masses originated from the west/northwest, some organic species displayed characteristics consistent with the measured PM2.5 being strongly influenced by the aged nature of these long-traveling background parcels. During the winter, intrusions from more regional air masses originating from the south and the southwest were more important.

Improved sampling, pre-concentration, and detection of hidden explosives and illicit drugs by a novel solid phase microextraction geometry coupled to ion mobility spectrometry

The 9/11 Act mandates the inspection of 100% of cargo shipments entering the U.S. by 2012 and 100% inspection of air cargo by March 2010. So far, only 5% of inbound shipping containers are inspected thoroughly while air cargo inspections have fared better at 50%. Government officials have admitted that these milestones cannot be met since the appropriate technology does not exist. This research presents a novel planar solid phase microextraction (PSPME) device with enhanced surface area and capacity for collection of the volatile chemical signatures in air that are emitted from illicit compounds for direct introduction into ion mobility spectrometers (IMS) for detection. These IMS detectors are widely used to detect particles of illicit substances and do not have to be adapted specifically to this technology. For static extractions, PDMS and sol-gel PDMS PSPME devices provide significant increases in sensitivity over conventional fiber SPME. Results show a 50–400 times increase in mass detected of piperonal and a 2–4 times increase for TNT. In a blind study of 6 cases suspected to contain varying amounts of MDMA, PSPME-IMS correctly detected 5 positive cases with no false positives or negatives. One of these cases had minimal amounts of MDMA resulting in a false negative response for fiber SPME-IMS. A La (dihed) phase chemistry has shown an increase in the extraction efficiency of TNT and 2,4-DNT and enhanced retention over time. An alternative PSPME device was also developed for the rapid (seconds) dynamic sampling and preconcentration of large volumes of air for direct thermal desorption into an IMS. This device affords high extraction efficiencies due to strong retention properties under ambient conditions resulting in ppt detection limits when 3.5 L of air are sampled over the course of 10 seconds. Dynamic PSPME was used to sample the headspace over the following: MDMA tablets (12–40 ng detected of piperonal), high explosives (Pentolite) (0.6 ng detected of TNT), and several smokeless powders (26–35 ng of 2,4-DNT and 11–74 ng DPA detected). PSPME-IMS technology is flexible to end-user needs, is low-cost, rapid, sensitive, easy to use, easy to implement, and effective. ^

Investigating the origin of PM2.5 in Baltimore using highly time-resolved organic molecular markers measured during the Baltimore PM-supersite

The detailed organic composition of atmospheric fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5) is an integral part of the knowledge needed in order to fully characterize its sources and transformation in the environment. For the study presented here, samples were collected at 3-hour intervals. This high time resolution allows gaining unique insights on the influence of short- and long-range transport phenomena, and dynamic atmospheric processes. A specially designed sequential sampler was deployed at the 2002-2003 Baltimore PM Supersite to collect PM2.5 samples at a 3-hourly resolution for extended periods of consecutive days, during both summer and winter seasons. Established solvent-extraction and GC-MS techniques were used to extract and analyze the organic compounds in 119 samples from each season. Over 100 individual compounds were quantified in each sample. For primary organics, averaging the diurnal ambient concentrations over the sampled periods revealed ambient patterns that relate to diurnal emission patterns of major source classes. Several short-term releases of pollutants from local sources were detected, and local meteorological data was used to pinpoint possible source regions. Biogenic secondary organic compounds were detected as well, and possible mechanisms of formation were evaluated. The relationships between the observed continuous variations of the concentrations of selected organic markers and both the on-site meteorological measurements conducted parallel to the PM2.5 sampling, and the synoptic patterns of weather and wind conditions were also examined. Several one-to-two days episodes were identified from the sequential variation of the concentration observed for specific marker compounds and markers ratios. The influence of the meteorological events on the concentrations of the organic compounds during selected episodes was discussed. It was observed that during the summer, under conditions of pervasive influence of air masses originated from the west/northwest, some organic species displayed characteristics consistent with the measured PM2.5 being strongly influenced by the aged nature of these long-traveling background parcels. During the winter, intrusions from more regional air masses originating from the south and the southwest were more important.