A new Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions

We present a novel approach for the reconstruction of spectra from Euclidean correlator data that makes close contact to modern Bayesian concepts. It is based upon an axiomatically justified dimensionless prior distribution, which in the case of constant prior function m(ω) only imprints smoothness on the reconstructed spectrum. In addition we are able to analytically integrate out the only relevant overall hyper-parameter α in the prior, removing the necessity for Gaussian approximations found e.g. in the Maximum Entropy Method. Using a quasi-Newton minimizer and high-precision arithmetic, we are then able to find the unique global extremum of P[ρ|D] in the full Nω » Nτ dimensional search space. The method actually yields gradually improving reconstruction results if the quality of the supplied input data increases, without introducing artificial peak structures, often encountered in the MEM. To support these statements we present mock data analyses for the case of zero width delta peaks and more realistic scenarios, based on the perturbative Euclidean Wilson Loop as well as the Wilson Line correlator in Coulomb gauge.

Capability of a space-based space surveillance system to detect and track objects in GEO, MEO and LEO orbits

In this paper we present the results from the coverage and the orbit determination accuracy simulations performed within the recently completed ESA study “Assessment Study for Space Based Space Surveillance (SBSS) Demonstration System” (Airbus Defence and Space consortium). This study consisted in investigating the capability of a space based optical sensor (SBSS) orbiting in low Earth orbit (LEO) to detect and track objects in GEO (geosynchronous orbit), MEO (medium Earth orbit) and LEO and to determinate and improve initial orbits from such observations. Space based systems may achieve better observation conditions than ground based sensors in terms of astrometric accuracy, detection coverage, and timeliness. The primary observation mode of the proposed SBSS demonstrator is GEO surveillance, i.e. the systematic search and detection of unknown and known objects. GEO orbits are specific and unique orbits from dynamical point of view. A space-based sensor may scan the whole GEO ring within one sidereal day if the orbit and pointing directions are chosen properly. For an efficient survey, our goal was to develop a leak-proof GEO fence strategy. Collaterally, we show that also MEO, LEO and other (GTO,Molniya, etc.) objects would be possible to observe by the system and for a considerable number of LEO objects to down to size of 1 cm we can obtain meaningful statistical data for improvement and validation of space debris environment models

Ultrasound evaluation of synovitis in RA: correlation with clinical disease activity and sensitivity to change in an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the correlation between clinical measures of disease activity and a ultrasound (US) scoring system for synovitis applied by many different ultrasonographers in a daily routine care setting within the Swiss registry for RA (SCQM) and further to determine the sensitivity to change of this US Score. METHODS One hundred and eight Swiss rheumatologists were trained in performing the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism (SONAR) score. US B-mode and Power Doppler (PwD) scores were correlated with DAS28 and compared between the clinical categories in a cross-sectional cohort of patients. In patients with a second US (longitudinal cohort), we investigated if change in US score correlated with change in DAS and evaluated the responsiveness of both methods. RESULTS In the cross-sectional cohort with 536 patients, correlation between the B-mode score and DAS28 was significant but modest (Pearson coefficient r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). The same was true for the PwD score (r = 0.41, P < 0.0001). In the longitudinal cohort with 183 patients we also found a significant correlation between change in B-mode and in PwD score with change in DAS28 (r = 0.54, P < 0.0001 and r = 0.46, P < 0.0001, respectively). Both methods of evaluation (DAS and US) showed similar responsiveness according to standardized response mean (SRM). CONCLUSIONS The SONAR Score is practicable and was applied by many rheumatologists in daily routine care after initial training. It demonstrates significant correlations with the degree of as well as change in disease activity as measured by DAS. On the level of the individual, the US score shows many discrepancies and overlapping results exist.

Articulated Statistical Shape Model-Based 2D-3D Reconstruction of a Hip Joint

In this paper, reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) patient-specific models of a hip joint from two-dimensional (2D) calibrated X-ray images is addressed. Existing 2D-3D reconstruction techniques usually reconstruct a patient-specific model of a single anatomical structure without considering the relationship to its neighboring structures. Thus, when those techniques would be applied to reconstruction of patient-specific models of a hip joint, the reconstructed models may penetrate each other due to narrowness of the hip joint space and hence do not represent a true hip joint of the patient. To address this problem we propose a novel 2D-3D reconstruction framework using an articulated statistical shape model (aSSM). Different from previous work on constructing an aSSM, where the joint posture is modeled as articulation in a training set via statistical analysis, here it is modeled as a parametrized rotation of the femur around the joint center. The exact rotation of the hip joint as well as the patient-specific models of the joint structures, i.e., the proximal femur and the pelvis, are then estimated by optimally fitting the aSSM to a limited number of calibrated X-ray images. Taking models segmented from CT data as the ground truth, we conducted validation experiments on both plastic and cadaveric bones. Qualitatively, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed 2D-3D reconstruction framework preserved the hip joint structure and no model penetration was found. Quantitatively, average reconstruction errors of 1.9 mm and 1.1 mm were found for the pelvis and the proximal femur, respectively.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

A tephra lattice for Greenland and a reconstruction of volcanic events spanning 25–45 ka b2k

Tephra layers preserved within the Greenland ice-cores are crucial for the independent synchronisation of these high-resolution records to other palaeoclimatic archives. Here we present a new and detailed tephrochronological framework for the time period 25,000 e 45,000 a b2k that brings together results from 4 deep Greenland ice-cores. In total, 99 tephra deposits, the majority of which are preserved as cryptotephra, are described from the NGRIP, NEEM, GRIP and DYE-3 records. The major element signatures of single glass shards within these deposits indicate that 93 are basaltic in composition all originating from Iceland. Specifically, 43 originate from Grimsv € otn, 20 are thought to be sourced from the Katla volcanic system and 17 show affinity to the Kverkfj € oll system. Robust geochemical characterisations, independent ages derived from the GICC05 ice-core chronology, and the stratigraphic positions of these deposits relative to the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate events represent a key framework that provides new information on the frequency and nature of volcanic events in the North Atlantic region between GS-3 and GI-12. Of particular importance are 19 tephra deposits that lie on the rapid climatic transitions that punctuate the last glacial period. This framework of well-constrained, time-synchronous tie-lines represents an important step towards the independent synchronisation of marine, terrestrial and ice-core records from the North Atlantic region, in order to assess the phasing of rapid climatic changes during the last glacial period.

Interpretation of fluid inclusions in quartz deformed by weak ductile shearing: reconstruction of differential stress magnitudes and pre-deformation fluid properties

A well developed theoretical framework is available in which paleofluid properties, such as chemical composition and density, can be reconstructed from fluid inclusions in minerals that have undergone no ductile deformation. The present study extends this framework to encompass fluid inclusions hosted by quartz that has undergone weak ductile deformation following fluid entrapment. Recent experiments have shown that such deformation causes inclusions to become dismembered into clusters of irregularly shaped relict inclusions surrounded by planar arrays of tiny, new-formed (neonate) inclusions. Comparison of the experimental samples with a naturally sheared quartz vein from Grimsel Pass, Aar Massif, Central Alps, Switzerland, reveals striking similarities. This strong concordance justifies applying the experimentally derived rules of fluid inclusion behaviour to nature. Thus, planar arrays of dismembered inclusions defining cleavage planes in quartz may be taken as diagnostic of small amounts of intracrystalline strain. Deformed inclusions preserve their pre-deformation concentration ratios of gases to electrolytes, but their H2O contents typically have changed. Morphologically intact inclusions, in contrast, preserve the pre-deformation composition and density of their originally trapped fluid. The orientation of the maximum principal compressive stress (σ1σ1) at the time of shear deformation can be derived from the pole to the cleavage plane within which the dismembered inclusions are aligned. Finally, the density of neonate inclusions is commensurate with the pressure value of σ1σ1 at the temperature and time of deformation. This last rule offers a means to estimate magnitudes of shear stresses from fluid inclusion studies. Application of this new paleopiezometer approach to the Grimsel vein yields a differential stress (σ1–σ3σ1–σ3) of ∼300 MPa∼300 MPa at View the MathML source390±30°C during late Miocene NNW–SSE orogenic shortening and regional uplift of the Aar Massif. This differential stress resulted in strain-hardening of the quartz at very low total strain (<5%<5%) while nearby shear zones were accommodating significant displacements. Further implementation of these experimentally derived rules should provide new insight into processes of fluid–rock interaction in the ductile regime within the Earth's crust.

Efficiency of frost-cracking processes through space and time: An example from the eastern Italian Alps

It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published 10Be-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas.

Petrov classification and holographic reconstruction of spacetime

Using the asymptotic form of the bulk Weyl tensor, we present an explicit approach that allows us to reconstruct exact four-dimensional Einstein spacetimes which are algebraically special with respect to Petrov’s classification. If the boundary metric supports a traceless, symmetric and conserved complex rank-two tensor, which is related to the boundary Cotton and energy-momentum tensors, and if the hydrodynamic congruence is shearless, then the bulk metric is exactly resummed and captures modes that stand beyond the hydrodynamic derivative expansion. We illustrate the method when the congruence has zero vorticity, leading to the Robinson-Trautman spacetimes of arbitrary Petrov class, and quote the case of non-vanishing vorticity, which captures the Plebański-Demiański Petrov D family.