The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

A transport protocol for real-time applications in wireless networked control systems

A Networked Control System (NCS) is a feedback-driven control system wherein the control loops are closed through a real-time network. Control and feedback signals in an NCS are exchanged among the system’s components in the form of information packets via the network. Nowadays, wireless technologies such as IEEE802.11 are being introduced to modern NCSs as they offer better scalability, larger bandwidth and lower costs. However, this type of network is not designed for NCSs because it introduces a large amount of dropped data, and unpredictable and long transmission latencies due to the characteristics of wireless channels, which are not acceptable for real-time control systems. Real-time control is a class of time-critical application which requires lossless data transmission, small and deterministic delays and jitter. For a real-time control system, network-introduced problems may degrade the system’s performance significantly or even cause system instability. It is therefore important to develop solutions to satisfy real-time requirements in terms of delays, jitter and data losses, and guarantee high levels of performance for time-critical communications in Wireless Networked Control Systems (WNCSs). To improve or even guarantee real-time performance in wireless control systems, this thesis presents several network layout strategies and a new transport layer protocol. Firstly, real-time performances in regard to data transmission delays and reliability of IEEE 802.11b-based UDP/IP NCSs are evaluated through simulations. After analysis of the simulation results, some network layout strategies are presented to achieve relatively small and deterministic network-introduced latencies and reduce data loss rates. These are effective in providing better network performance without performance degradation of other services. After the investigation into the layout strategies, the thesis presents a new transport protocol which is more effcient than UDP and TCP for guaranteeing reliable and time-critical communications in WNCSs. From the networking perspective, introducing appropriate communication schemes, modifying existing network protocols and devising new protocols, have been the most effective and popular ways to improve or even guarantee real-time performance to a certain extent. Most previously proposed schemes and protocols were designed for real-time multimedia communication and they are not suitable for real-time control systems. Therefore, devising a new network protocol that is able to satisfy real-time requirements in WNCSs is the main objective of this research project. The Conditional Retransmission Enabled Transport Protocol (CRETP) is a new network protocol presented in this thesis. Retransmitting unacknowledged data packets is effective in compensating for data losses. However, every data packet in realtime control systems has a deadline and data is assumed invalid or even harmful when its deadline expires. CRETP performs data retransmission only in the case that data is still valid, which guarantees data timeliness and saves memory and network resources. A trade-off between delivery reliability, transmission latency and network resources can be achieved by the conditional retransmission mechanism. Evaluation of protocol performance was conducted through extensive simulations. Comparative studies between CRETP, UDP and TCP were also performed. These results showed that CRETP significantly: 1). improved reliability of communication, 2). guaranteed validity of received data, 3). reduced transmission latency to an acceptable value, and 4). made delays relatively deterministic and predictable. Furthermore, CRETP achieved the best overall performance in comparative studies which makes it the most suitable transport protocol among the three for real-time communications in a WNCS.

Time-dependent fractional advection–diffusion equations by an implicit MLS meshless method

Recently, many new applications in engineering and science are governed by a series of fractional partial differential equations (FPDEs). Unlike the normal partial differential equations (PDEs), the differential order in a FPDE is with a fractional order, which will lead to new challenges for numerical simulation, because most existing numerical simulation techniques are developed for the PDE with an integer differential order. The current dominant numerical method for FPDEs is Finite Difference Method (FDM), which is usually difficult to handle a complex problem domain, and also hard to use irregular nodal distribution. This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless approach based on the moving least squares (MLS) approximation for numerical simulation of fractional advection-diffusion equations (FADE), which is a typical FPDE. The discrete system of equations is obtained by using the MLS meshless shape functions and the meshless strong-forms. The stability and convergence related to the time discretization of this approach are then discussed and theoretically proven. Several numerical examples with different problem domains and different nodal distributions are used to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless formulation. It is concluded that the present meshless formulation is very effective for the modeling and simulation of the FADE.

An implicit RBF meshless approach for time fractional diffusion equations

This paper aims to develop an implicit meshless approach based on the radial basis function (RBF) for numerical simulation of time fractional diffusion equations. The meshless RBF interpolation is firstly briefed. The discrete equations for two-dimensional time fractional diffusion equation (FDE) are obtained by using the meshless RBF shape functions and the strong-forms of the time FDE. The stability and convergence of this meshless approach are discussed and theoretically proven. Numerical examples with different problem domains and different nodal distributions are studied to validate and investigate accuracy and efficiency of the newly developed meshless approach. It has proven that the present meshless formulation is very effective for modeling and simulation of fractional differential equations.

Analyzing real-time video microscopy : the dynamics and geometry of vesicles and tubules in endocytosis

With the advent of live cell imaging microscopy, new types of mathematical analyses and measurements are possible. Many of the real-time movies of cellular processes are visually very compelling, but elementary analysis of changes over time of quantities such as surface area and volume often show that there is more to the data than meets the eye. This unit outlines a geometric modeling methodology and applies it to tubulation of vesicles during endocytosis. Using these principles, it has been possible to build better qualitative and quantitative understandings of the systems observed, as well as to make predictions about quantities such as ligand or solute concentration, vesicle pH, and membrane trafficked. The purpose is to outline a methodology for analyzing real-time movies that has led to a greater appreciation of the changes that are occurring during the time frame of the real-time video microscopy and how additional quantitative measurements allow for further hypotheses to be generated and tested.

Surrogacy and IVF

While in the past surrogacy was illegal in Queensland, since June 2010 the Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) (“the Act”) has made altruistic surrogacy arrangements lawful in Queensland. In addition, it provides a mechanism for transfer of legal parentage from the surrogate to the person(s) wishing to have a child (the intended parent(s)). Commercial surrogacy – where a payment, reward or other material benefit of advantage (other than the reimbursement of the “birth mother’s surrogacy costs” (s11 of the Act) is made for entering into a surrogacy arrangement – remains unlawful. The paramount guiding principle underpinning the Act is that of the wellbeing and best interests of a child born as a result of surrogacy. The Surrogacy Act 2010 (Qld) allows a single person or a couple (heterosexual or same sex couples) to enter into an agreement with a woman, and her partner (if she has one), to become pregnant with the intention that the child will be relinquished to the intended parent(s). The Act also provides a mechanism for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised as the parent(s) of the child. In order for the intended parent(s) to be legally recognised (via a parentage order, discussed below) it must be shown that the surrogacy arrangement was entered into when all the parties were over 25 years of age and the intended parent(s) are male or, in a heterosexual or lesbian couple the female(s) are not likely to conceive or give birth to a healthy child due to medical reasons. The arrangement must be entered into before the surrogate becomes pregnant and all parties must have obtained independent legal advice and counselling about the proposed arrangement, and evidence of this is required at the time a parentage order is applied for. For the purposes of the Act it does not matter how the surrogate conceives the child or if the child is genetically related to the parties. During the period of the pregnancy, the surrogate has the right to manage her pregnancy in the way she wishes. Although she cannot profit from acting as a surrogate, section 11 states that she is entitled to surrogacy costs. These include, for example, reasonable medical costs related to pregnancy and the birth of the child; counselling and legal costs associated with the surrogacy arrangement; actual lost earnings because of leave taken during pregnancy or following birth and any reasonable travel expenses incurred. The surrogacy arrangement itself is not legally enforceable; however, obligations to pay a surrogate’s surrogacy costs are enforceable unless she chooses not to relinquish the child to the intending parents. While the Act does not specifically deal with the situation where the surrogate decides she is unprepared to relinquish the child to the intended parents, there have been examples where parties have entered into these kinds of arrangements, and the arrangements have become difficult. For example, the Family Court case of Re Evelyn (1998) FLC 92–807 involved a child born to a surrogate mother who decided not to surrender her. The child was the genetic child of the surrogate mother and the husband of the couple who had contracted with the surrogate mother. Both sets of parents brought proceedings in the court, seeking that the child live with them. In hearing the application, the court applied the paramount principle of the ‘best interests of the child’. The court made clear that there is no presumption in favour of the birth mother, although in this case the court found that the child may be better placed with the surrogate mother’s family.