Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.

Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence

This paper tests the predictions of the Barro-Gordon model using US data on inflation and unemployment. To that end, it constructs a general game-theoretical model with asymmetric preferences that nests the Barro-Gordon model and a version of Cukierman’s model as special cases. Likelihood Ratio tests indicate that the restriction imposed by the Barro-Gordon model is rejected by the data but the one imposed by the version of Cukierman’s model is not. Reduced-form estimates are consistent with the view that the Federal Reserve weights more heavily positive than negative unemployment deviations from the expected natural rate.

Effet de la température sur les interactions trophiques et intraguildes au sein d’un système plante-herbivore-ennemis naturels : modélisation et approches expérimentales

Doctorat réalisé en cotutelle entre l'Université de Montréal et l'Université Paul Sabatier-Toulouse III

Effect of exercise training on preeclampsia superimposed on chronic hypertension in a mouse model

Preeclampsia is among the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity, affecting 2-7% of pregnancies. Its incidence increases to 10-25% in already hypertensive women. To date, no treatment, aside from delivery, is known. Interestingly, several studies have reported that exercise training (ExT) can reduce preeclampsia prevalence although the available studies are considered insufficient. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the impact of ExT when practiced before and during gestation on pregnancy outcome in a mouse model of preeclampsia superimposed on chronic hypertension (SPE). To do so, mice overexpressing both human angiotensinogen and renin (R+A+) were used because they are hypertensive at baseline and they develop many hallmark features of SPE. Mice were trained by placing them in a cage with access to a running wheel 4 weeks before and during gestation. ExT in this study prevented the rise in blood pressure at term observed in the sedentary transgenic mothers. This may be realized through an increased activity of the angiotensin-(1-7) axis in the aorta. In addition, ExT prevented the increase in albumin/creatinine ratio. Moreover, placental alterations were prevented with training in transgenic mice, leading to improvements in placental and fetal development. Placental mRNA and circulating levels of sFlt-1 were normalized with training. Additionally, the increase in angiotensin II type I receptor and the decrease in Mas receptor protein were reversed with training. ExT appears to prevent many SPE-like features that develop in this animal model and may be of use in the prevention of preeclampsia in women.

The effects of administration of a nuclear factor kappa-B inhibitor on pulmonary endothelial dysfunction after cardiopulmonary bypass: impact on oxygenation and hemodynamics and development of therapeutic and preventive modalities in a porcine model

Introduction: La circulation extracorporelle (CEC) peut entraîner une dysfonction endothéliale pulmonaire et l’hypertension pulmonaire. Le SN50 agit au niveau de la signalisation cellulaire pour prévenir ces réactions à la CEC et pourrait renverser la dysfonction endothéliale pulmonaire post-CEC sans effets néfastes sur l’hémodynamie. Méthodes: Quatre groups de porcs ont reçu un parmi quatre traîtements avant de subir 90 minutes de CEC et 60 minutes de reperfusion: (1) milrinone nébulisé; (2) sildenafil nébulisé; (3) placebo nébulisé; et (4) SN-50 intraveineux. Un monitoring hémodynamique invasif a été utilisé. La réactivité vasculaire des artères pulmonaires de deuxième ordre a été évaluée face à l’acétylcholine et la bradykinine. Résultats: Le sildénafil produit une augmentation significative de la pression de l’artère pulmonaire (PAP) moyenne à 60 minutes de reperfusion par rapport au début de la chirurgie. Les relaxations dépendantes de l’endothélium face à la bradykinine étaient meilleurs dans les groupes milrinone et SN-50 et surtout dans le groupe sildénafil par rapport au groupe placébo. Le SN-50 produisait de moins bonnes relaxations dépendantes de l’endothélium face à l’acétylcholine que les autres traitements incluant placébo. Conclusion: Le sildénafil prévient mieux la dysfonction endothéliale pulmonaire que les autres traitements. Les bénéfices du SN-50 sont possiblement sous-estimés vu que la dose n’a pas pu être ajustée à la durée de CEC. Le sildenafil inhalé mérite une étude plus importante chez l’humain et le SN-50 dans un model de CEC animal.

Pro-inflammatory and angiogenic activities of VEGF and angiopoietins in murine sponge/Matrigel model

La dérégulation de la formation et l'intégrité des vaisseaux sanguins peut conduire à un état pathologique tel qu’observé dans de nombreuses maladies ischémiques telles que: la croissance de tumeur solide, l’arthrite rhumatoïde, le psoriasis, les rétinopathies et l'athérosclérose. Par conséquent, la possibilité de moduler l'angiogenèse régionale chez les patients souffrant d'ischémie est cliniquement pertinente. Un élément clé dans l'induction de l'angiogenèse pathologique est une inflammation qui précède et accompagne la formation des nouveaux vaisseaux. Ce phénomène est démontré par l'augmentation de la perméabilité vasculaire et le recrutement de monocytes/ macrophages et cellules polynucléaires (neutrophiles). En collaboration avec d'autres groupes, nous avons montré que différents facteurs de croissance tels que le facteur de croissance endothélial vasculaire et les angiopoïétines peuvent non seulement promouvoir l'angiogenèse mais aussi induire diverses étapes connexes au processus de la réaction inflammatoire, y compris la synthèse et la libération des médiateurs inflammatoires et la migration des neutrophiles. Les objectifs de notre étude étaient d'adresser si le vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) et les angiopoïétines (Ang1 et Ang2) sont capables de promouvoir la formation des nouveaux vaisseaux sanguins au fil du temps et d'identifier la présence de différentes cellules inflammatoires dans ce processus. Des éponges d'alcool polyvinylique stérilisées et imbibées de Matrigel appauvri en facteur de croissance (contenant PBS, VEGF, Ang1 ou Ang2 (200 ng/200 μl)) ont été insérées sous la peau de souris C57/Bl6 anesthésiées. Les éponges ont ensuite été retirées aux jours 4, 7, 14 ou 21 après la procédure pour des analyses histologiques, immunohistologiques et cytométriques. La formation des nouveaux vaisseaux a été validée par la coloration au Trichrome de Masson et des analyses histologiques et immunohistologiques contre les cellules endothéliales (anti-CD31). De plus, la maturation des vaisseaux a été démontrée par la coloration séquentielle contre les cellules endothéliales (anti-CD31) et musculaires lisses (anti-alpha-actine). Nous avons effectué la même procédure pour caractériser le recrutement de neutrophiles (anti-MPO), et de macrophages (anti-F4/80). Afin de mieux délimiter la présence de différents sous-ensembles de leucocytes recrutés dans les éponges, nous avons utilisé une technique de cytométrie en flux sur des préparations de cellules isolées à partir de ces éponges. Nous avons observé que le VEGF et les angiopoïétines favorisent le recrutement de cellules endothéliales et la formation de nouveaux vaisseaux plus rapidement qu’en présence de PBS. Une fois formé au jour 7, ces nouveaux vaisseaux restent stables en nombre, et ne subissent pas une réorganisation importante de leur surface. Ces vaisseaux maturent grâce au recrutement et au recouvrement par les cellules musculaires lisses des néovaisseaux. En outre, le microenvironnement angiogénique est composé de cellules inflammatoires, principalement de neutrophiles, macrophages et quelques cellules de type B et T. Donc, le VEGF, l’Ang1 et l’Ang2 induisent séparément la formation et la stabilisation de nouveaux vaisseaux sanguins, ainsi que le recrutement de cellules inflammatoires avec des puissances différentes et une action temps-dépendante dans un modèle d’éponge/Matrigel.

Studies on food and feeding of marine demersal finfishes with special reference to trophic interactions

Food and feeding habits of fourteen demersal finfishes exploited off the Karnataka coast were studied to investigate trophic interactions within the marine food web. Index of Relative Importance (lRI),Ontogenetic, seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) variation in feeding and prey-predator relationship studies were conducted.The results of prey-predator trophic interaction studies identified four major trophic guilds based on the predators feeding similarity.Trophic guild I is 'copepod and detritus fceders'with an average group similarity of 61.4%. The second trophic guild, 'prawn and crab feeders'with an average similarity of 52.7%. 'Acetes feeders', the largest trophic guild with an average group similarity of 62.5%, composed of six demersal finfish species.The guild 'piscivores' is constituted by C. limba/us and P. arsius with an average similarity of 45%.For each predator, ontogenetic diet shift is common and is characterized by prey of low to high trophic level.Strong selection of certain prey types was observed in some predators while most of them avoided abundant prey.In addition to Acetes spp, strong predation impact was observed for penaeid prawns, epibenthic crabs and detritus.This information on trophic guilds and prey-predator interactions can be used to construct trophic model on the benthic ecosystem off Karnataka and to investigate fishery induced changes as well as predation impact of different animals on commercially important demersals

“Assessment of Heavy Metals in the Environmental Compartments of the Central and Northern Coast of Kerala, India”

The nearshore marine ecosystem is a dynamic environment impacted by many activities, especially the coastal waters and sediments contiguous to major urban areas. Although heavy metals are natural constituents of the marine environment, inputs are considered to be conservative pollutants and are potentially toxic, accumulate in the sediment, are bioconcentrated by organisms and may cause health problems to humans via the food chain. A variety of metals in trace amounts are essential for biological processes in all organisms, but excessive levels can be detrimental by acting as enzyme inhibitors. Discharge of industrial wastewater, agriculture runoff and untreated sewage pose a particularly serious threat to the coastal environment of Kerala, but there is a dearth of studies in documenting the contaminant metals. This study aimed principally to assess such contamination by examining the results of heavy metal (Cu, Pb, Cr, Ni, Zn, Cd and Hg) analysis in seawater, sediment and benthic biota from a survey of five transects along the central and northern coast of Kerala in 2008 covering a 10.0 km stretch of near shore environment in each transect. Trophic transfer of metal contaminants from aquatic invertebrates to its predators was also assessed, by employing a suitable benthic food chain model in order to understand which all metals are undergoing biotransference (transfer of metals from a food source to consumer).The study of present contamination levels will be useful for potential environmental remediation and ecosystem restoration at contaminated sites and provides a scientific basis for standards and protective measures for the coastal waters and sediments. The usefulness of biomonitor proposed in this study would allow identification of different bioavailable metals as well as provide an assessment of the magnitude of metal contamination in the coastal marine milieu. The increments in concentration of certain metals between the predator and prey discerned through benthic food chain can be interpreted as evidence of biotransference.

Profile simulations of gas chopping etching processes : model development and comparison with experiments

The progress in microsystem technology or nano technology places extended requirements to the fabrication processes. The trend is moving towards structuring within the nanometer scale on the one hand, and towards fabrication of structures with high aspect ratio (ratio of vertical vs. lateral dimensions) and large depths in the 100 µm scale on the other hand. Current procedures for the microstructuring of silicon are wet chemical etching and dry or plasma etching. A modern plasma etching technique for the structuring of silicon is the so-called "gas chopping" etching technique (also called "time-multiplexed etching"). In this etching technique, passivation cycles, which prevent lateral underetching of sidewalls, and etching cycles, which etch preferably in the vertical direction because of the sidewall passivation, are constantly alternated during the complete etching process. To do this, a CHF3/CH4 plasma, which generates CF monomeres is employed during the passivation cycle, and a SF6/Ar, which generates fluorine radicals and ions plasma is employed during the etching cycle. Depending on the requirements on the etched profile, the durations of the individual passivation and etching cycles are in the range of a few seconds up to several minutes. The profiles achieved with this etching process crucially depend on the flow of reactants, i.e. CF monomeres during the passivation cycle, and ions and fluorine radicals during the etching cycle, to the bottom of the profile, especially for profiles with high aspect ratio. With regard to the predictability of the etching processes, knowledge of the fundamental effects taking place during a gas chopping etching process, and their impact onto the resulting profile is required. For this purpose in the context of this work, a model for the description of the profile evolution of such etching processes is proposed, which considers the reactions (etching or deposition) at the sample surface on a phenomenological basis. Furthermore, the reactant transport inside the etching trench is modelled, based on angular distribution functions and on absorption probabilities at the sidewalls and bottom of the trench. A comparison of the simulated profiles with corresponding experimental profiles reveals that the proposed model reproduces the experimental profiles, if the angular distribution functions and absorption probabilities employed in the model is in agreement with data found in the literature. Therefor the model developed in the context of this work is an adequate description of the effects taking place during a gas chopping plasma etching process.

A Two-level Prediction Model for Deep Reactive Ion Etch (DRIE)

We contribute a quantitative and systematic model to capture etch non-uniformity in deep reactive ion etch of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices. Deep reactive ion etch is commonly used in MEMS fabrication where high-aspect ratio features are to be produced in silicon. It is typical for many supposedly identical devices, perhaps of diameter 10 mm, to be etched simultaneously into one silicon wafer of diameter 150 mm. Etch non-uniformity depends on uneven distributions of ion and neutral species at the wafer level, and on local consumption of those species at the device, or die, level. An ion–neutral synergism model is constructed from data obtained from etching several layouts of differing pattern opening densities. Such a model is used to predict wafer-level variation with an r.m.s. error below 3%. This model is combined with a die-level model, which we have reported previously, on a MEMS layout. The two-level model is shown to enable prediction of both within-die and wafer-scale etch rate variation for arbitrary wafer loadings.

Stability of a Seabird Population in the Presence of an Introduced Predator

We hypothesized that although large populations may appear able to withstand predation and disturbance, added stochasticity in population growth rate (λ) increases the risk of dramatic population declines. Approximately half of the Aleutian Islands' population of Least Auklets (Aethia pusilla) breed at one large colony at Kiska Island in the presence of introduced Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) whose population erupts periodically. We evaluated two management plans, do nothing or eradicate rats, for this colony, and performed stochastic elasticity analysis to focus future research and management. Our results indicated that Least Auklets breeding at Kiska Island had the lowest absolute value of growth rate and more variable λ's (neither statistically significant) during 2001-2010, when compared with rat-free colonies at Buldir and Kasatochi islands. We found variability in the annual proportional change in population size among islands with Kiska Island having the fastest rate of decline, 78% over 20 years. Under the assumption that the eradication of rats would result in vital rates similar to those observed at rat-free Buldir and Kasatochi islands, we found the projected population decline decreased from 78% to 24% over 20 years. Overall, eradicating rats at Kiska Island is not likely to increase Least Auklet vital rates, but will decrease the amount of variation in λ, resulting in a significantly slower rate of population decline. We recommend the eradication of rats from Kiska Island to decrease the probability of dramatic population declines and ensure the future persistence of this important colony.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Very short delays prior to escape from potential predators may function efficiently as adaptive risk-assessment periods

Periods between predator detection and an escape response (escape delays) by prey upon attack by a predator often arise because animals trade-off the benefits such a delay gives for assessing risk accurately with the costs of not escaping as quickly as possible. We tested whether freezing behaviour (complete immobility in a previously foraging bird) observed in chaffinches before escaping from an approaching potential threat functions as a period of risk-assessment, and whether information on predator identity is gained even when time available is very short. We flew either a model of a sparrowhawk (predator) or a woodpigeon (no threat) at single chaffinches. Escape delays were significantly shorter with the hawk, except when a model first appeared close to the chaffinch. Chaffinches were significantly more vigilant when they resumed feeding after exposure to the sparrowhawk compared to the woodpigeon showing that they were able to distinguish between threats, and this applied even when time available for assessment was short (an average of 0.29 s). Our results show freezing in chaffinches functions as an effective economic risk assessment period, and that threat information is gained even when very short periods of time are available during an attack.

Shrinking the posterior: A note on the Nerlovian model

Diebold and Lamb (1997) argue that since the long-run elasticity of supply derived from the Nerlovian model entails a ratio of random variables, it is without moments. They propose minimum expected loss estimation to correct this problem but in so-doing ignore the fact that a non white-noise-error is implicit in the model. We show that, as a consequence the estimator is biased and demonstrate that Bayesian estimation which fully accounts for the error structure is preferable.

Investigating the effects of predator removal and habitat management on nest success and breeding population size of a farmland passerine: a case study

Passerines are especially vulnerable to predation at the pre-independence stage. Although the role of nest success in British farmland passerine declines is contentious, improvement in nest success through sympathetic management could play a role in their reversal. Because habitat is known to interact with predation, management options for mitigation will need to consider effects of nest predation. We present results from an observational study of a population of Common Blackbird Turdus merula on a farm which has experienced a range of agri-environment and game-management options, including a period with nest predator control, as a case study to address some of these issues. We used an information theoretic model comparison procedure to look for evidence of interactions between habitat and nest predation, and then asked whether habitat management and nest predator abundances could explain population trends at the site through their effects on nest success. Interactions were detected between measures of predator abundance and habitat variables, and these varied with nest stage - habitat within the vicinity of the nest appeared to be important at the egg stage, and nest-placement characteristics were important at the nestling stage. Although predator control appeared to have a positive influence on Blackbird breeding population size, the non-experimental set-up meant we could not eliminate other potential explanations. Variation in breeding population size did not appear to be influenced by variation in nest success alone. Our study demonstrates that observational data can only go so far in detection of such effects, and we discuss how it might be taken further. Agri-environment and game-management techniques are likely to influence nest predation pressure on farmland passerines, but the patterns, mechanisms and importance to population processes remain not wholly understood.