Bronchial Asthma in Children: Clinical and Epidemiologic Approach in Different Portuguese Speaking Countries

BACKGROUND: Geographical differences in asthma prevalence are currently accepted, but evidence is sparse due to the lack of multicentre studies using the same protocol. OBJECTIVES: To compare the prevalence of asthma and atopy among schoolchildren from Portuguese speaking countries (ISAAC and Portuguese Study) and evaluate some environmental variables, such as house dust mite exposure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Significant random samples of schoolchildren studied with standard validated methods--questionnaires, skin prick tests, methacholine bronchial challenge tests; dust bed sampling for analysis of mite antigens. RESULTS: In the ISAAC study, in the 13-14 year-old age group, statistical significant differences were found, with higher wheezing prevalence in Brazil than in Portugal (two-fold). In the Portuguese Study, atopy prevalence ranged between 6.0 and 11.9% in Sal and S. Vicente (Cape Verde), up to 48.6 and 54.1% in Macau and Madeira. Active asthma had the higher values in Madeira (14.6%), and the lower in Macau (1.3%). Cape Verde had intermediate asthma prevalence (10.6 and 7.0%). The bronchial challenge test was positive in 25, 66 and 70% of asthmatic children from Sal, S. Vicente and Madeira respectively. Significant HDM antigen concentrations (Der p1) were found in Cape Verde and Madeira. CONCLUSIONS: There are significant variations in asthma and atopy prevalence between these pediatric populations. The reasons remain under discussion, but genetics linked to race, seem to play a central role, modulated by environmental and lifestyle variables.

Hospital costs and random demand

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A random access MAC protocol for MPR satellite networks

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Three essays on the term structure of interest rates

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Cost efficiency in the Portuguese water sector: The case of multimunicipal systems operating at the bulk level

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

CSR practices and labor retention: How can these variables be related?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

Identification and differentiation of Candida species from pediatric patients by random amplified polymorphic DNA

Thirty-four Candida isolates were analyzed by random amplified polymorphic DNA using the primer OPG-10:24 Candida albicans; 4 Candida tropicalis; 2 Candida parapsilosis; 2 Candida dubliniensis; 1 Candida glabrata and 1 Candida krusei. The UPGMA-Pearson correlation coefficient was used to calculate the genetic distance between the different Candida groupings. Samples were classified as identical (correlation of 100%); highly related samples (90%); moderately related samples (80%) and unrelated samples (< 70%). The results showed that the RAPD proposed was capable of classifying the isolates coherently (such that same species were in the same dendrogram), except for two isolates of Candida parapsilosis and the positive control (Netherlands, 1973), probably because they are now recognized as three different species. Concerning the only fluconazole-resistant Candida tropicalis isolate with a genotype that was different to the others, the data were insufficient to affirm that the only difference was the sensitivity to fluconazole. We concluded that the Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA proposed might be used to confirm Candida species identified by microbiological methods.

Human papillomavirus genotypes in asymptomatic young women from public schools in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this work was to survey HPV information from a random population of young women from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included cervical samples from 241 female students. To determine human papillomavirus status, polymerase chain reaction amplification was performed. HPV typing was determined by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Demographic data, life style, sexual and gynecological history were obtained through use of a structured questionnaire. RESULTS: The average age of the women was 19.6 years-old (SD=3.4 years). HPV prevalence was 27.4%. Nineteen different HPV genotypes were detected, including 13 high risk types. HPV 16 was the most prevalent type (6.2%), followed by 31 (4.1 %) and 66 (3.7%). Most of the oncogenic types belonged to the A9 species (28/48). The frequency of women infected by at least one oncogenic type was significantly higher than those only infected by low risk types (18.7% versus 7.5%). Cervical changes were detected in 12.5% of the sample and were significantly linked to infection with HPV types of the A9 species. Demographic variables, sexual initiation, or number of sexual partners were not associated with HPV prevalence, variety of HPV genotypes or oncogenic types. CONCLUSIONS: The relative frequency of HPV genotypes other than vaccine types in young females should be taken into account when evaluating vaccination strategies. Due to the high prevalence of HPV infection among the population studied, implementation of sex education in schools, promotion of condom use and an organized screening program to prevent cervical cancer must be encouraged for this age group.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Compensating variation and the young Portuguese emigrants: A study on how to keep our own

Emigration has been a very present word in Portugal. Due to the effects of the Economic Crisis and the Memorandum of Understanding policies, we have witnessed a significant yearly migration outflow of people searching for better conditions. This study aims to measure the factors affecting this flow as well as how much the probability of emigrating has evolved during the years bridging 2006 to 2012. I shall consider the decision of emigrating as Discrete Choice Random Utility maximization use a conditional Logit framework to model the probability choice for 31 OECD countries of destination. Moreover I will ascertain the compensating variation required such that the probability of choice in 2012 is adjusted back to 2007 values, keeping all other variables constant. I replicate this exercise using the unemployment rate instead of income. The most likely country of destination is Luxembourg throughout the years analyzed and the values obtained for the CV is of circa 1.700€ in terms of Income per capita and -11% in terms of the unemployment rate adjustment.

How can clusters help in the product type choice? The case of a specialized retail store

This work project (WP) is a study about a clustering strategy for Sport Zone. The general cluster study’s objective is to create groups such that within each group the individuals are similar to each other, but should be different among groups. The clusters creation is a mix of common sense, trial and error and some statistical supporting techniques. Our particular objective is to support category managers to better define the product type to be displayed in the stores’ shelves by doing store clusters. This research was carried out for Sport Zone, and comprises an objective definition, a literature review, the clustering activity itself, some factor analysis and a discriminant analysis to better frame our work. Together with this quantitative part, a survey addressed to category managers to better understand their key drivers, for choosing the type of product of each store, was carried out. Based in a non-random sample of 65 stores with data referring to 2013, the final result was the choice of 6 store clusters (Figure 1) which were individually characterized as the main outcome of this work. In what relates to our selected variables, all were important for the distinction between clusters, which proves the adequacy of their choice. The interpretation of the results gives category managers a tool to understand which products best fit the clustered stores. Furthermore, as a side finding thanks to the clusterization, a STP (Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning) was initiated, being this WP the first steps of a continuous process.

Analysis of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva, 1912)

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is an infectious and parasitic zoonotic, non-contagious, vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania. In Brazil, the major vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi (Cunha & Chagas, 1934) is Lutzomyia longipalpis. Barra do Garças, State of Mato Grosso, was designated as a priority area by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for american visceral leishmaniasis, and it is important to identify the vector species present in this municipality. Our objective was to raise sandflies and study the influence of environmental variables on the vector density of Lutzomyia longipalpis. METHODS: We performed entomological monitoring in 3 districts using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps and recorded human cases of american visceral leishmaniasis in the city. We calculated the relative frequency and richness of sandflies and applied a transfer function model to the vector density correlate with relative humidity. RESULTS: The sandfly population was composed of 2 genera and 27 species, totaling 8,097 individuals. Monitoring identified Lutzomyia longipalpis (44%), followed by Lutzomyia lenti (18.9%), Lutzomyia whitmani (13.9%), Lutzomyia carmelinoi (9.1%), Lutzomyia evandroi (5.1%), Lutzomyia termitophila (3.3%), Lutzomyia sordellii (1.9%), and 20 other species (<4%). The male:female ratio was 3.5:1. We observed high species diversity (Dα = 6.65). Lutzomyia longipalpis showed occurrence peaks during the rainy season; there was a temporal correlation with humidity, but not with frequency or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in the urban area of Barra do Garças underscores the changing disease profile, which was previously restricted to the wild environment.

Factors associated with Leishmania chagasi infection in domestic dogs from Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Many studies have evaluated risk factors for human visceral leishmaniasis, but few have focused on the infection among dogs. The objective of this study was to assess the association between peridomestic socioeconomic and environmental factors and the presence of dogs seropositive for Leishmania chagasi in the City of Teresina, Brazil. METHODS: This case-control study was based on the results of a routine seroepidemiological survey among domestic dogs carried out in 2007. Serological tests were performed by means of indirect immunofluorescence antibody test. All dwellings in which at least one seropositive dog was detected were considered cases, and controls were a random sample of dwellings in which only seronegative dogs were identified. Associations between variables were expressed as odds ratios (OR) and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) estimated using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Dwellings with a history of dogs removed by the visceral leishmaniasis control program in the last 12 months had five-fold higher odds of having at least one seropositive dog as compared with dwellings having no history of dog removal (OR = 5.19; 95%CI = 3.20-8.42). Dwellings with cats had 58% increased odds of dog infection as compared with those having no cats (OR = 1.58; 95%CI = 1.01-2.47). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of factors associated with canine visceral leishmaniasis might be used for the delimitation of areas of higher risk for human visceral leishmaniasis, since infection in dogs generally precedes the appearance of human cases.