(Fig. 9) Pollen analysis of sediment core GIK16017-2

The improved understanding of the pollen signal in the marine sediments offshore of northwest Africa is applied to deep-sea core M 16017-2 at 21°N. Downcore fluctuations in the percentage, concentration and influx diagrams record latitudinal shifts of the main northwest African vegetation zones and characteristics of the trade winds and the African Easterly Jet. Time control is provided by 14C ages and 180 records. During the period 19,000-14,000 yr B.P. a compressed savanna belt extended between about 12 ° and 14-15°N. The Sahara had maximally expanded northward and southward under hyperarid climatic conditions. The belt with trade winds and dominant African Easterly Jet transport had not shifted latitudinally. The trade winds were strong as compared to the modern situation but around 13,000 yr B.P. the trade winds weakened. After 14,000 yr B.P. the climate became less arid south of the Sahara and a first spike of fluvial runoff is registered around 13,000 yr B.P. Fluvial runoff increased strongly around 11,000 yr B.P. and maximum runoff is recorded from about 9000-7800 yr B.P. Around 12,500 yr B.P. the savanna belt started to shift northward and became richer in woody species: it shifted about 6° of latitude, reached its northernmost position during the period of 9200-7800 yr B.P. and extended between about 16° and 24°N at that time. Tropical forest had reached its maximum expansion and the Guinea zone reached as far north as about 15°N, reflecting very humid climatic conditions south of the Sahara. North of the Sahara the climate also became more humid and Mediterranean vegetation developed rapidly. The Sahara had maximally contracted and the trade winds were weak and comparable with the present day intensity. After about 7800 yr B.P. the southern fringe of the Sahara and accordingly the savanna belt, shifted rapidly southward again.

Ornamental plants as climatic indicators of arthropod vectors

The importance and risk of vector-borne diseases (eg. leishmaniasis, West Nile Virus, Lyme borreliosis) is going to increase in the European temperate areas due to climate change. Our previous studies have shown that the potential distribution of Leishmania infantum and some Phlebotomus (sand fly) species – a parasite of leishmaniasis, and its vectors – may be expanded even to the southern coastline of the Baltic Sea by the end of the 21st century. The lowland areas of the Carpathian Basin and the main part of Hungary are projected to be suitable for the studied sand fly vectors in the near future. It is important to find some indicator plants to examine whether the sand flies are able to live in a certain climate at a certain time. We studied several Mediterranean and Sub-Mediterranean plant species, and we found that the aggregated distribution of three ligneous species (Juniperus oxycedrus L., Quercus ilex L. and Pinus brutia Ten.) shows high correlation with the union distribution of five sand flies (Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., Ph. neglectus Tonn., Ph. perfiliewi Parrot, Ph. perniciosus Newst. and Ph. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie). Since these Mediterranean species are highly tolerant of the edaphic characteristics of the planting site, they may prove to be good indicators. The present and upcoming climate of Hungary is seen to be suitable for the selected indicator plant species, and it draws attention to and verifies the potential of the expansion of sand flies, which has been proved by some recent observations of the vectors in Southern Hungary.