988 resultados para Progression Risk
Resumo:
Background: Vascular calcification is common and constitutes a prognostic marker of mortality in the hemodialysis population. Derangements of mineral metabolism may influence its development. The aim of this study is to prospectively evaluate the association between bone remodeling disorders and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in hemodialysis patients. Study Design: Cohort study nested within a randomized controlled trial. Setting & Participants: 64 stable hemodialysis patients. Predictor: Bone-related laboratory parameters and bone histomorphometric characteristics at baseline and after 1 year of follow-up. Outcomes: Progression of CAC assessed by means of coronary multislice tomography at baseline and after 1 year of follow-up. Baseline calcification score of 30 Agatston units or greater was defined as calcification. Change in calcification score of 15% or greater was defined as progression. Results: Of 64 patients, 26 (40%) had CAC at baseline and 38 (60%) did not. Participants without CAC at baseline were younger (P < 0.001), mainly men (P = 0.03) and nonwhite (P = 0.003), and had lower serum osteoprotegerin levels (P = 0.003) and higher trabecular bone volume (P = 0.001). Age (P 0.003; beta coefficient = 1.107; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.036 to 1.183) and trabecular bone volume (P = 0.006; beta coefficient = 0.828; 95% Cl, 0.723 to 0.948) were predictors for CAC development. Of 38 participants who had calcification at baseline, 26 (68%) had CAC progression in 1 year. Progressors had lower bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (P = 0.03) and deoxypyridinoline levels (P = 0.02) on follow-up, and low turnover was mainly diagnosed at the 12-month bone biopsy (P = 0.04). Low-turnover bone status at the 12-month bone biopsy was the only independent predictor for CAC progression (P = 0.04; beta coefficient = 4.5; 95% Cl, 1.04 to 19.39). According to bone histological examination, nonprogressors with initially high turnover (n = 5) subsequently had decreased bone formation rate (P = 0.03), and those initially with low turnover (n = 7) subsequently had increased bone formation rate (P = 0.003) and osteoid volume (P = 0.001). Limitations: Relatively small population, absence of patients with severe hyperparathyroidism, short observational period. Conclusions: Lower trabecular bone volume was associated with CAC development, whereas improvement in bone turnover was associated with lower CAC progression in patients with high- and low-turnover bone disorders. Because CAC is implicated in cardiovascular mortality, bone derangements may constitute a modifiable mortality risk factor in hemodialysis patients.
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Few prospective data from the Asia Pacific region are available relating body mass index to the risk of diabetes. Our objective was to provide reliable age, sex and region specific estimates of the associations between body mass index and diabetes. Twenty-seven cohort studies from Asia, New Zealand and Australia, including 154,989 participants, contributed 1,244,793 person-years of follow-up. Outcome data included a combination of incidence of diabetes (based on blood glucose measurements) and fatal diabetes events. Hazard ratios were calculated from Cox models, stratified by sex and cohort, and adjusted for age at risk and smoking. During follow-up (mean = 8 years), 75 fatal diabetes events and 242 new cases of diabetes were documented. There were continuous positive associations between baseline body mass index and risk of diabetes with each 2 kg/m(2) lower body mass index associated with a 27% (23-30%) lower risk of diabetes. The associations were stronger in younger age groups, and regional comparisons demonstrated slightly stronger associations in Asian than in Australasian cohorts (P = 0.04). This overview provides evidence of a strong continuous association between body mass index and diabetes in the Asia Pacific region. The results indicate considerable potential for reduction in incidence of diabetes with population-wide lowering of body mass index in this region.
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The importance of overweight as a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) remains unsettled. We estimated the relative risk (RR) for CHD associated with underweight (body mass index, BMI < 20 kg/m2), overweight (25 – 30 kg/m2) and obesity (= 30 kg/m2), compared with normal weight (20 – 25 kg/m2) in a random effects meta-analysis of 30 prospective studies, including 389,239 healthy, predominantly Caucasian persons. We also explored sources of heterogeneity between studies and examined effects of systematic adjustment for confounding and intermediary variables. Pooled age-, sex- and smoking-adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for overweight, obesity and underweight compared with normal weight were 1.33 (1.24 – 1.43), 1.69 (1.44 – 1.99) and 1.01 (0.85 – 1.20), respectively. Stratified analyses showed that pooled RRs for BMI were higher for studies with longer follow-up (= vs. < 15 years) and younger populations (< vs. = 60 years). Additional adjustment for blood pressure, cholesterol levels and physical activity decreased the RR per 5 BMI units from 1.28 (1.21 – 1.34) to 1.16 (1.11 – 1.21). We conclude that overweight and obesity are associated with a substantially increased CHD risk in Caucasians, whereas underweight is not. Prevention and reduction of overweight and obesity, therefore, remain of importance for preventing CHD.
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Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.
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To describe incidence rates and risk factors associated with external ventricular drain (EVD)-related infections at a tertiary Brazilian teaching hospital. The patient cohort consisted of all patients at a major teaching hospital in Brazil with an EVD during the period 1 April 2007 to 30 June 2008 (15 months). Patients were followed up for 30 days after catheter removal. According to the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention criteria for meningitis/ventriculitis, all of the central nervous system (CNS) infections that occurred during this period could be considered to be meningitis or ventriculitis related to EVD placement. Infection rates were calculated using different denominators, such as (1) per patient (incidence), (2) per procedure, and (3) per 1,000 catheter-days (drain-associated infection rate). Patient demographic data, medical history of underlying diseases, antibiotic prophylaxis usage, American Society of Anesthesiologists Score classification, duration of surgery and hospitalization, length of time the EVD was in place, and overall mortality were evaluated during the study period. A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with infection. A total of 119 patients, 130 EVD procedures, and 839 catheter-days were evaluated. The incidence of infection was 18.3%, the infection rate was 16.9% per procedure, and the drain-associated infection rate was 22.4 per 1,000 catheter-days; 77% of the infections were caused by Gram-negative micro-organisms. Only 75% of patients received antibiotic prophylaxis. The infection rate increased with length of the hospital stay. The length of time the catheter was in place was the only independent risk factor associated with infection (p = 0.0369). The incidence of EVD-related infections is high in our hospital, Gram-negative micro-organisms were the most frequent causal agents identified and length of time that the catheter was in place contributed to the infection rate.
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Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2 is characterized by germline mutations in RET. For exon 10, comprehensive molecular and corresponding phenotypic data are scarce. The International RET Exon 10 Consortium, comprising 27 centers from 15 countries, analyzed patients with RET exon 10 mutations for clinical-risk profiles. Presentation, age-dependent penetrance, and stage at presentation of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), pheochromocytoma, and hyperparathyroidism were studied. A total of 340 subjects from 103 families, age 4-86, were registered. There were 21 distinct single nucleotide germline mutations located in codons 609 (45 subjects), 611 (50), 618 (94), and 620 (151). MTC was present in 263 registrants, pheochromocytoma in 54, and hyperparathyroidism in 8 subjects. Of the patients with MTC, 53% were detected when asymptomatic, and among those with pheochromocytoma, 54%. Penetrance for MTC was 4% by age 10, 25% by 25, and 80% by 50. Codon-associated penetrance by age 50 ranged from 60% (codon 611) to 86% (620). More advanced stage and increasing risk of metastases correlated with mutation in codon position (609-620) near the juxtamembrane domain. Our data provide rigorous bases for timing of premorbid diagnosis and personalized treatment/prophylactic procedure decisions depending on specific RET exon 10 codons affected. Hum Mutat 32:51-58, 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.
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Introduction. Hepatic steatosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with obesity, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) is a prognostic screening tool to detect people at risk for type 2 diabetes without the use of any blood test. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether FINDRISC can also be used to screen for the presence of hepatic steatosis. Patients and methods. Steatosis was determined by ultrasound. The study sample consisted of 821 non-diabetic subjects without previous hepatic disease; 81% were men (mean age 45 +/- 9 years) and 19% women (mean age 41 +/- 10 years). Results. Steatosis was present in 44% of men and 10% of women. The odds ratio for one unit increase in the FINDRISC associated with the risk of steatosis was 1.30 (95% CI 1.25-1.35), similar for men and women. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for steatosis was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83); 0.80 in men (95% CI 0.77-0.83) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.73-0.93) in women. Conclusions. Our data suggest that the FINDRISC could be a useful primary screening tool for the presence of steatosis.
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Aim: To evaluate percutaneous cryotherapy as a primary treatment option for prostate cancer, comparing different risk groups. Patients and Methods: Forty-seven prostate cryoablation procedures were performed on 44 patients. Patients median age was 70.9, and average pretreatment PSA of 13.8 ng/dl. Patients were divided into low-risk (13 patients), high-risk (24 patients) and radiation failure patients (7 patients). The follow-up period ranged from 18 to 60 months (median 41 months). Results: In the low-risk group, we found after 12 and 24 months of follow-up, 92 and 86% of patients free of PSA relapse (PSA < 1 ng/ml), respectively. In the high-risk group, the PSA failure was 39 and 52.9%. For the radiation failure group, 86 and 71.4% of patients had PSA below 1 ng/dl. At 48 months of follow-up, 80% of the low-risk patients, 42.8% of the high-risk group and 71.4% of the radiation failure group were free of PSA relapse. The complication rates were low, with 13% of urinary incontinence and no cases of rectal injury. Conclusion: Prostate cryoablation is a viable and promising minimally invasive alternative for localized or locally advanced prostate cancer patients. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.
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Purpose: Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) continues to be employed as the most effective immunotherapy against superficial bladder cancer. We have developed an rBCG-S1PT strain that induces a stronger cellular immune response than BCG. This preclinical study was designed to test the potential of rBCG-S1PT as an immunotherapeutic agent for intravesical bladder cancer therapy. Materials and methods: A tumor was induced in C57BL/6 mice after chemical cauterization of the bladder and inoculation of the tumor cell line MB49. Next, mice were treated by intravesical instillation with BCG, rBCG-S1PT, or PBS once a week for 4 weeks. After 35 days, the bladders were removed and weighed, Th1 (IL-2, IL-12, INOS, INF-gamma, TNF-alpha), and Th2 (IL-5, IL-6, IL-10, TGF-beta) cytokine mRNA responses in individual mice bladders were measured by quantitative real time PCR, and the viability of MB49 cells in 18-hour coculture with splenocytes from treated mice was assessed. In an equivalent experiment, animals were observed for 60 days to quantify their survival. Results: Both BCG and rBCG-S1PT immunotherapy resulted in bladder weight reduction, and rBCG-S1PT increased survival time compared with the control group. There were increases in TNF-alpha in the BCG treated group, as well as increases in TNF-alpha and IL-10 mRNA in the rBCG-S1PT group. The viability of MB49 cells cocultured with splenocytes from rBCG-S1PT-treated mice was lower than in both the BCG and control groups. Conclusions: rBCG-S1PT therapy improved outcomes and lengthened survival times. These results indicate that rBCG could serve as a useful substitute for wild-type BCG. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.
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Background. Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. Among T. cruzi-infected individuals, only a subgroup develops severe chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC); the majority remain asymptomatic. T. cruzi displays numerous ligands for the Toll-like receptors (TLRs), which are an important component of innate immunity that lead to the transcription of proinflammatory cytokines by nuclear factor-kappa B. Because proinflammatory cytokines play an important role in CCC, we hypothesized that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes that encode proteins in the TLR pathway could explain differential susceptibility to CCC among T. cruzi-infected individuals. Methods. For 169 patients with CCC and 76 T. cruzi-infected, asymptomatic individuals, we analyzed SNPs by use of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for the genes TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR5, TLR9, and MAL/TIRAP, which encodes an adaptor protein. Results. Heterozygous carriers of the MAL/TIRAP variant S180L were more prevalent in the asymptomatic group (24 [32%] of 76 subjects) than in the CCC group (21 [12%] of 169) (chi(2) = 12.6; P = .0004 [adjusted P (P(c)) = .0084]; odds ratio [OR], 0.31 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.16-0.60]). Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had severe CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction <= 40%) (chi(2) = 11.3; P = .0008 [P(c) = .017]; OR, 0.22 [95% CI, 0.09-0.56]) than when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had mild CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction >40%) (chi(2) = 7.7; P = .005 [P(c) = .11]; OR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.15-0.73]). Conclusion. T. cruzi-infected individuals who are heterozygous for the MAL/TIRAP S180L variant that leads to a decrease in signal transduction upon ligation of TLR2 or TLR4 to their respective ligand may have a lower risk of developing CCC.