953 resultados para Probability of detection


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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of combined spinal-epidural and traditional epidural analgesia on uterine basal tone and its association with the occurrence of fetal heart rate (FHR) abnormalities. METHODS: Seventy-seven laboring patients who requested pain relief during labor were randomly assigned to combined spinal-epidural (n=41) or epidural analgesia (n=36). Uterine contractions and FHR were recorded 15 minutes before and after analgesia. Uterine tone was evaluated with intrauterine pressure catheter. Primary outcomes were the elevation of baseline uterine tone and occurrence of FHR prolonged decelerations or bradycardia after analgesia. The influence of other variables such as oxytocin use, hypotension, and speed of pain relief were estimated using a logistic regression model. RESULTS: The incidence of all outcomes was significantly greater in the combined spinal-epidural group compared with epidural: uterine hypertonus (17 compared with 6; P=.018), FHR abnormalities (13 compared with 2; P<.01), and both events simultaneously (11 compared with 1; P<.01). Logistic regression analysis showed the type of analgesia as the only independent predictor of uterine hypertonus (odds ratio 3.526, 95% confidence interval 1.21-10.36; P=.022). For the occurrence of FHR abnormalities, elevation of uterine tone was the independent predictor (odds ratio 18.624, 95% confidence interval 4.46-77.72; P<.001). Regression analysis also found a correlation between decrease on pain scores immediately after analgesia and the estimated probability of occurrence of hypertonus and FHR abnormalities. CONCLUSION: Combined spinal-epidural analgesia is associated with a significantly greater incidence of FHR abnormalities related to uterine hypertonus compared with epidural analgesia. The faster the pain relief after analgesia, the higher the probability of uterine hypertonus and FHR changes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Umin Clinical Trials Registry, http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/index.htm, UMIN000001186

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Introduction Different modalities of palliation for obstructive symptoms in patients with unresectable esophageal cancer (EC) exist. However, these therapeutic alternatives have significant differences in costs and effectiveness. Methods A Markov model was designed to compare the cost-effectiveness (CE) of self-expandable stent (SES), brachytherapy and laser in the palliation of unresectable EC. Patients were assigned to one of the strategies, and the improvement in swallowing function was compared given the treatment efficacy, probability of survival, and risks of complications associated to each strategy. Probabilities and parameters for distribution were based on a 9-month time frame. Results Under the base-case scenario, laser has the lowest CE ratio, followed by brachytherapy at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,400.00, and SES is a dominated strategy. In the probabilistic analysis, laser is the strategy with the highest probability of cost-effectiveness for willingness to pay (WTP) values lower than $3,201 and brachytherapy for all WTP yielding a positive net health benefit (NHB) (threshold $4,440). The highest probability of cost-effectiveness for brachytherapy is 96%, and consequently, selection of suboptimal strategies can lead to opportunity losses for the US health system, ranging from US$ 4.32 to US$ 38.09 million dollars over the next 5-20 years. Conclusion Conditional to the WTP and current US Medicare costs, palliation of unresectable esophageal cancers with brachytherapy provides the largest amount of NHB and is the strategy with the highest probability of CE. However, some level of uncertainly remains, and wrong decisions will be made until further knowledge is acquired.

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Aims: To evaluate sociodemographic correlates associated with transitions from alcohol use to disorders and remission in a Brazilian population. Methods: Data are from a probabilistic, multi-stage clustered sample of adult household residents in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. Alcohol use, regular use (at least 12 drinks/year), DSM-IV abuse and dependence and remission from alcohol use disorders (AUDs) were assessed with the World Mental Health version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Age of onset (AOO) distributions of the cumulative lifetime probability of each alcohol use stage were prepared with data obtained from 5037 subjects. Correlates of transitions were obtained from a subsample of 2942 respondents, whose time-dependent sociodemographic data were available. Results: Lifetime prevalences were 85.8% for alcohol use, 56.2% for regular use, 10.6% for abuse and 3.6% for dependence; 73.4 and 58.8% of respondents with lifetime abuse and dependence, respectively, had remitted. The number of sociodemographic correlates decreased from alcohol use to disorders. All transitions across alcohol use stages up to abuse were consistently associated with male gender, younger cohorts and lower education. Importantly, low education was a correlate for developing AUD and not remitting from dependence. Early AOO of first alcohol use was associated with the transition of regular use to abuse. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that specific correlates differently contribute throughout alcohol use trajectory in a Brazilian population. It also reinforces the need of preventive programs focused on early initiation of alcohol use and high-risk individuals, in order to minimize the progression to dependence and improve remission from AUD.

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Introduction. Nowadays, lung transplantation (LTx) allocation in Brazil is based mainly oil waiting time. There is a need to evaluate the equity of the current lung allocation system. Objectives. We sought to (1) determine the characteristics of registered patients on the waiting list and (2) identify predictors of death on the list. Materials and Methods. We analyzed the medical records as well as clinical and laboratory data of 164 patients registered on the waiting list from 2001 to June 2008. Predictors of mortality were obtained using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results. Patients who were registered on the waiting list showed a mean age of 36.1 +/- 15.0 vs. 42.2 +/- 15.7 years, considering those who did versus did not, die on the list, respectively (P = .054). Emphysema was the most prevalent underlying disease among the patients who did not die on the list (28.8%); its prevalence was low among the patients who died on the list (6.5%; P = .009). The following variables correlated with the probability of death on the waiting list: emphysema or bronchiectasis diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.15; P = .002); activated partial thromboplastin time > 30 seconds (HR = 3.28; P = .002); serum albumin > 3.5 g/dL (HR = 0.41; P = .033); and hemoglobin saturation > 85% (HR = 0.44; P = .031). Conclusions. Some variables seemed to predict death on the LTx waiting list; these characteristics should be used to improve the LTx allocation criteria in Brazil.

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Background: Blood screening for hepatitis B virus (HBV) is not universally performed for donor selection in human milk banks. Objectives: To evaluate the frequency of detection of HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) and HBV-DNA in colostrum of HBV-infected nursing mothers before and after Holder pasteurization. Study design: Forty-two concentrated breast milk samples were obtained within two postnatal weeks from 24 HBsAg-positive women (4 HBeAg-positive and 20 HBeAg-negative, anti-HBe-positive) were tested for the presence of HBsAg and HBV-DNA before and after Holder pasteurization (30 min at 62.5 degrees C). Results: Before pasteurization, HBsAg and HBV-DNA were found in 14/24 (58%), and 20/24 (75%) first milk samples, respectively, obtained by 4 days after delivery. At least one marker was detected in 20/24 (83%) milk samples. Both markers were identified in milk of HBeAg-positive mothers, and most mothers with anti-HBe in blood had at least one HBV marker. Once detected, viral markers were frequently found in milk samples subsequently obtained from the same woman. Holder pasteurization did not affect the probability of detecting HBsAg (8/18, 44%), HBV-DNA (12/18, 67%). or at least one of them (15118, 83%). Conclusions: Although the biological implications of these findings remain to be determined, considering that HBV is highly contagious and most recipients of banked human milk are preterm infants, these findings should be taken into account when donors are enlisted for human milk banks without serological screening. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The fact that the diagnosis of infection with dengue virus is usually made by detecting IgM antibodies during the convalescent phase of the disease interferes with disease management and, consequently, with reducing mortality rates. This study evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of detection of NS1 in samples of patients suspected of acute dengue virus infection in Brazil. The results were used to institute treatment and the sensitivity and specificity of detection of NS1 were compared to the results of detection of IgM, virus isolation, and RT-PCR. Detection of NS1 yielded better results than RTPCR and virus isolation. When considering IgM detection and RT-PCR positive results as ""gold standards,"" the sensitivity and specificity of the NS1 assay were 95.9% and 81.1%, respectively. All patients enrolled in the study were treated promptly and had an uneventful course of the disease. The detection of NS1 provided better results than the diagnostic techniques used currently during the acute phase of disease (RT-PCR and virus isolation). Detection of NS1 is an important tool for the diagnosis of acute dengue infection, particularly in highly endemic areas, allowing for rapid treatment of patients and reduction of disease burden. J. Med. Virol. 82: 1400-1405, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Background: Shrimp is a frequent cause of food allergy. Tropomyosin is the major allergen in shrimp, and it shares homology to tropomyosins from other crustaceans, dust mites, cockroach, and parasites. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the value of detection of IgE to shrimp tropomyosin in the diagnosis of shrimp allergy. Methods: We have studied 35 patients with asthma, rhinitis, or both who were sensitized to Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus. All subjects underwent skin prick testing in addition to double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenges (DBPCFC); oral open challenges; or both with shrimp. Measurements of IgE to shrimp and shrimp tropomyosin were carried out by means of CAP and chimeric ELISA, respectively. Results: Oral challenges confirmed the diagnosis of shrimp allergy in 7 patients. IgE measurement to shrimp tropomyosin was positive in 71.4% of the patients with shrimp allergy. Of the 28 patients without shrimp allergy, only 7.1% (2/28) had IgE to shrimp tropomyosin compared with 25% (7/28) who had IgE to shrimp and 35.7% (10/28) who had positive skin prick test responses to shrimp. Sensitivity was similar for all 3 methods (71.4%); in contrast, specificity of IgE to shrimp tropomyosin (92.8%) was greater than that of IgE to shrimp (75%) and skin prick testing (64.2%). With regard to diagnostic efficiency, measurement of IgE to shrimp tropomyosin was superior to measurement of IgE to shrimp and skin prick testing (88.5%, 74.2%, and 65.7%, respectively). Conclusion: Use of measurements of IgE to shrimp tropomyosin provided added value to the diagnosis of shrimp allergy. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2010;125:872-8.)

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From a genomic library enriched for GA/CA repeats, 15 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers were developed for Cariniana estrellensis, a tropical forest tree. The microsatellite loci were screened in 49 mature trees found between Pardo river and Mogi-Gua double dagger u river basins, in the state of So Paulo, Brazil. A total of 140 alleles were detected with an average of 9.33 alleles per locus. The expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.37 to 0.88. These loci showed a high probability of paternity exclusion. Additionally, 12 loci were effectively transferred to Cariniana legalis. High levels of polymorphism make the present SSR markers useful for population genetic studies.

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Background: Twenty-three patients (median age 23 months) who underwent Fallot`s tetralogy repair were investigated prospectively to detect a possible association between histopathologic myocardial remodeling and echocardiographic findings of systolic or diastolic ventricular dysfunction. Methods: Intraoperatively resected infundibular bands and subendocardial biopsy samples from the right ventricle (RV) and left ventricle were obtained for histopathologic evaluation. Tissue Doppler echocardiographic interrogation of the ventricles was performed before surgery and in the postoperative period. Results: Histopathologic data revealed hypertrophy of the RV cardiomyocytes and increased interstitial collagen in both ventricles. Mean values of RV isovolumic acceleration decreased significantly at the third evaluation compared with the preoperative values (P = .006). RV myocardial fibrosis greater than 8.3% was associated with a probability of altered E` of at least 0.7 (odds ratio = 2.31). Conclusion: Preoperative histologic myocardial remodeling influenced the postoperative RV function in this group of patients with late repair. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the myocardium in younger patients and to define its influence in the long-term follow-up. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2010;23:912-8.)

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Quantitation of progesterone (P(4)) in biological fluids is often performed by radioimmunoassay (RIA), whereas liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) has been used much less often. Due to its autoconfirmatory nature, LC-MS/MS greatly minimizes false positives and interference. Herein we report and compare with RIA an optimized LC-MS/MS method for rapid, efficient, and cost-effective quantitation of P(4) in plasma of cattle with no sample derivatization. The quantitation of plasma P(4) released from three nonbiodegradable, commercial, intravaginal P(4)-releasing devices (IPRD) over 192 h in six ovariectomized cows was compared in a pairwise study as a test case. Both techniques showed similar P(4) kinetics (P > 0.05) whereas results of P(4) quantitation by RIA were consistently higher compared with LC-MS/MS (P < 0.05) due to interference and matrix effects. The LC-MS/MS method was validated according to the recommended analytical standards and displayed P(4) limits of detection (LOD) and quantitation (LOQ) of 0.08 and a 0.25 ng/mL, respectively. The high selective LC-MS/MS method proposed herein for P(4) quantitation eliminates the risks associated with radioactive handling; it also requires no sample derivatization, which is a common requirement for LC-MS/MS quantitation of steroid hormones. Its application to multisteroid assays is also viable, and it is envisaged that it may provide a gold standard technique for hormone quantitation in animal reproductive science studies. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the performances of observers in diagnosing proximal caries in digital images obtained from digital bitewing radiographs using two scanners and four digital cameras in Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) and tagged image file format (TIFF) files, and comparing them with the original conventional radiographs. Method: In total, 56 extracted teeth were radiographed with Kodak Insight film (Eastman Kodak, Rochester, NY) in a Kaycor Yoshida X-ray device (Kaycor X-707;Yoshida Dental Manufacturing Co., Tokyo, Japan) operating at 70 kV and 7 mA with an exposure time of 0.40 s. The radiographs were obtained and scanned by CanonScan D646U (Canon USA Inc., Newport News, VA) and Genius ColorPage HR7X (KYE Systems Corp. America, Doral, FL) scanners, and by Canon Powershot G2 (Canon USA Inc.), Canon RebelXT (Canon USA Inc.), Nikon Coolpix 8700 (Nikon Inc., Melville, NY), and Nikon D70s (Nikon Inc.) digital cameras in JPEG and TIFF formats. Three observers evaluated the images. The teeth were then observed under the microscope in polarized light for the verification of the presence and depth of the carious lesions. Results: The probability of no diagnosis ranged from 1.34% (Insight film) to 52.83% (CanonScan/JPEG). The sensitivity ranged from 0.24 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.53 (Insight film), the specificity ranged from 0.93 (Nikon Coolpix/JPEG, Canon Powershot/TIFF, Canon RebelXT/JPEG and TIFF) to 0.97 (CanonScan/TIFF and JPEG) and the accuracy ranged from 0.82 (Canon RebelXT/JPEG) to 0.91 (CanonScan/JPEG). Conclusion: The carious lesion diagnosis did not change in either of the file formats (JPEG and TIFF) in which the images were saved for any of the equipment used. Only the CanonScan scanner did not have adequate performance in radiography digitalization for caries diagnosis and it is not recommended for this purpose. Dentomaxillofacial Radiology (2011) 40, 338-343. doi: 10.1259/dmfr/67185962

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Consider a tandem system of machines separated by infinitely large buffers. The machines process a continuous flow of products, possibly at different speeds. The life and repair times of the machines are assumed to be exponential. We claim that the overflow probability of each buffer has an exponential decay, and provide an algorithm to determine the exact decay rates in terms of the speeds and the failure and repair rates of the machines. These decay rates provide useful qualitative insight into the behavior of the flow line. In the derivation of the algorithm we use the theory of Large Deviations.

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We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.