969 resultados para Probabilidade de default


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Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

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Good management, supported by accurate, timely and reliable health information, is vital for increasing the effectiveness of Health Information Systems (HIS). When it comes to managing the under resourced health systems of developing countries, information-based decision making is particularly important. This paper reports findings of a self-report survey that investigated perceptions of local health managers (HMs) of their own regional HIS in Sri Lanka. Data were collected through a validated, pre-tested postal questionnaire, and distributed among a selected group of HMs to elicit their perceptions of the current HIS in relation to information generation, acquisition and use, required reforms to the information system and application of information and communication technology (ICT). Results based on descriptive statistics indicated that the regional HIS was poorly organised and in need of reform; that management support for the system was unsatisfactory in terms of relevance, accuracy, timeliness and accessibility; that political pressure and community and donor requests took precedence over vital health information when management decisions were made; and use of ICT was unsatisfactory. HIS strengths included user-friendly paper formats, a centralised planning system and an efficient disease notification system; weaknesses were lack of comprehensiveness, inaccuracy, and lack of a feedback system. Responses of participants indicated that HIS would be improved by adopting an internationally accepted framework and introducing ICT applications. Perceived barriers to such improvements were high initial cost of educating staff to improve computer literacy, introduction of ICTs, and HIS restructure. We concluded that the regional HIS of Central Province, Sri Lanka had failed to provide much needed information support to HMs. These findings are consistent with similar research in other developing countries and reinforce the need for further research to verify causes of poor performance and to design strategic reforms to improve HIS in regional Sri Lanka.

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The higher education sector is undergoing a number of significant changes, the implications of which have yet to emerge. One such change is the increasing reliance by higher education providers on the revenue generated by full fee paying international students to fund their operating expenses. The report by the Victorian Ombudsman, Investigation into how Universities Deal with International Students ('Victorian Ombudsman's Report') tabled in the Victorian Parliament on 27 October 2011, provides evidence that Australian higher education providers may be failing to meet their legal obligations to international students. The Victorian Ombudsman's Report is the result of an investigation into four Victorian universities teaching international students with a focus on accounting and nursing schools. The report contains evidence that the universities were admitting students with scores below, or at the lower end of, the International English Language Testing System ('IELTS') score considered acceptable. Alternatively, they were relying upon their own language testing admission standards and not on an independent test like the IELTS test. While the universities provided English language support services for their international students after they had been admitted, the Ombudsman was concerned that the universities 'have not dedicated sufficient resources to meet the level of need amongst international students'.

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Following on from the 2nd edition published in 2005, this new edition updates its predecessor and adds considerable new material as a result of changes in the law generally and commercial approaches to financing joint ventures in particular. Of special note, Financing of Joint Ventures has been completely re-written with considerable additions to take account of the new legislative regimes such as the Personal Property Securities. The impact of climate change legislation has been covered, specifically carbon pricing with additional material on structuring generally and particularly in relation to large joint ventures with governments through Public Private Partnerships. A new Chapter has been added called Resources Joint Ventures and undertakes a thorough analysis of a typical resources joint venture and is heavily cross referenced into the chapter on Default which has also been updated. In addition, International Joint Ventures now includes additional material on structuring and dispute resolution and Joint Ventures and the Competition and Consumer Act has been substantially re-written to take account of 2009 legislative amendments on cartel conduct, and the impact of changes wrought by the Competition and Consumer Act 2010. All other chapters and material has been updated to accommodate other legislative changes and new case law over the seven years since the last edition.

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Following upon the success of the 2nd edition published in 2005, this new edition not only updates its predecessor but also adds considerable new material in consequences of changes in the law generally and commercial approaches to financing joint ventures in particular. Of special note are the following: Financing of Joint Ventures has been completely re-written with considerable additions to take account of the new legislative regimes such as the Personal Property Securities, the impact of climate change legislation, specifically carbon pricing with additional material on structuring generally and particularly in relation to large joint ventures with governments through Public Private Partnerships. A new Chapter called Resources Joint Ventures undertakes a thorough analysis of a typical resources joint venture and is heavily cross referenced into the chapter on Default which has also been updated. International Joint Ventures now includes additional material on structuring and dispute resolution. Joint Ventures and the Competition and Consumer Act has been substantially re-written to take account of 2009 legislative amendments on cartel conduct, and the impact of changes wrought by the Competition and Consumer Act 2010. All other chapters and material has been updated to accommodate other legislative changes and new case law over the seven years since the last edition.

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between mid 2010 and early 2011, Queensland road related infrastructures were devastated by flood and cyclone related natural disasters. Responding to these recent events and in preparing for more regular and intense climate-change induced events in future, the Queensland Government is now reviewing how post-disaster road infrastructure recovery projects are planned and delivered. In particular, there is awareness that rebuilding such infrastructure need sustainable strategies across economic, environmental and social dimensions. A comprehensive sustainability assessment framework for pre and post disaster situations can minimize negative impact on our communities, economy and environment. This research is underway to develop a comprehensive sustainability element frame work for post disaster management in road infrastructures in Queensland, Australia. Analyzing the implications of disruption to transport network and associated services is an important part of preparing local and regional responses to the impacts of natural disasters. This research can contribute to strategic planning, management leading to safe, efficient and integrated transport system that supports sustainable economic, social and environmental outcomes in Queensland. Within this context, this paper provides an overview of the qualitative mixed-method research approach involving literature reviews and case studies to explore and evaluate a number of sustainability elements with a view to develop operational strategies for disaster recovery road projects.

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BACKGROUND: A long length of stay (LOS) in the emergency department (ED) associated with overcrowding has been found to adversely affect the quality of ED care. The objective of this study is to determine whether patients who speak a language other than English at home have a longer LOS in EDs compared to those whose speak only English at home. METHODS: A secondary data analysis of a Queensland state-wide hospital EDs dataset (Emergency Department Information System) was conducted for the period, 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. RESULTS: The interpreter requirement was the highest among Vietnamese speakers (23.1%) followed by Chinese (19.8%) and Arabic speakers (18.7%). There were significant differences in the distributions of the departure statuses among the language groups (Chi-squared=3236.88, P<0.001). Compared with English speakers, the Beta coeffi cient for the LOS in the EDs measured in minutes was among Vietnamese, 26.3 (95%CI: 22.1–30.5); Arabic, 10.3 (95%CI: 7.3–13.2); Spanish, 9.4 (95%CI: 7.1–11.7); Chinese, 8.6 (95%CI: 2.6–14.6); Hindi, 4.0 (95%CI: 2.2–5.7); Italian, 3.5 (95%CI: 1.6–5.4); and German, 2.7 (95%CI: 1.0–4.4). The fi nal regression model explained 17% of the variability in LOS. CONCLUSION: There is a close relationship between the language spoken at home and the LOS at EDs, indicating that language could be an important predictor of prolonged LOS in EDs and improving language services might reduce LOS and ease overcrowding in EDs in Queensland's public hospitals.

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The book documents new findings on the contribution of migrant young people to Australia’s urban life. The essays collected traces teenagers within a world of city suburbs and P plates, shopping malls and chat rooms and text messages. Proud of their migrant backgrounds, they are moving away from explicit ethnically defined cultural groups to focus on their place in contemporary Australian society. These young people through their every day activities are redefining what it means to be an Australian The book is edited by widely published cultural researchers Melissa Butcher from the University of Sydney and Mandy Thomas from the Australian National University who together worked on the GENERATE project. It is far too common for our youth to be portrayed as not belonging to our dominant or mainstream culture. In Ingenious, the editors study the kaleidoscope of influences and environments our youth move within - online networks, dance parties and more - to paint a flexible, innovative generation.

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Explores the experiences of Vietnamese immigrants in Australia. Description What is it like to be a refugee in a country that has a completely different culture from your own, where you feel very different from those around you? With a fine eye for detail and keen empathy for her interviewees, Mandy Thomas explores the experiences of Vietnamese living in Australia. She examines displacement and loss, the ongoing effects of war trauma, and international and community politics. While reflecting on many of the contemporary debates on identity and communality, she explores the concrete realities of Vietnamese lives through their daily experiences. She discusses how Vietnamese families have adapted Western domestic architecture to create a more comfortable home environment, how traditional festivals now serve new purposes, and the changing nature of status and gender relations. She describes the reception of the Vietnamese by the wider Australian society and in the media, and she explores the ongoing ties that overseas Vietnamese have with their homeland. Dreams in the Shadows is a valuable resource for anyone working with immigrant communities, for readers interested in Vietnamese immigration to Western countries, and for researchers of migration and multiculturalism. 'Dreams in the Shadows is a wonderfully sensitive account of Vietnamese in Australia that provides insight into the worlds of Vietnamese immigrants and the often marginalizing orders of the host society.' Bruce Kapferer, Professor of Anthropology, James Cook University and University College London 'A perceptive, sensitive and culturally nuanced account of one of the most recently formed diasporas - that of Vietnamese in Sydney. Deserves to be widely read.' Pnina Werbner, Reader in Social Anthropology, Keele University

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In this chapter, the picture of Australian small business is supplemented by using data from the Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) . This data tracks large numbers of on-going business start-ups over time. The Australian Centre of Entrepreneurship Research at Queensland University of Technology collected data in four annual waves. (Wave 1 to Wave 4) from 2007 to 2011. CAUSEE allows the analysis of entrepreneurial entrants at two stages of development, i.e. nascent and young firms. Nascent firms are defined as firms in the process of being created, but not yet established in the market, and young firms are defined as having been operational for up to four years. An analysis of nascent firms provides unique insights, as no other known Australian database captures and follows the development of business start-ups at the pre-operational stage. In addition, the project captured judgment over samples of high-potential start-ups.

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Knowledge Management (KM) is a process that focuses on knowledge-related activities to facilitate knowledge creation, capture, transformation and use, with the ultimate aim of leveraging organisations’ intellectual capital to achieve organisational objectives. Organisational culture and climate have been identified as major catalysts to knowledge creation and sharing, and hence are considered important dimensions of KM research. The fragmented and hierarchical nature of the construction industry illustrates its difficulties to operate in a co-ordinated and homogeneous way when dealing with knowledge-related issues such as research and development, training and innovation. The culture and climate of organisations operating within the construction industry are profoundly shaped by the long-established characteristics of the industry, whilst also being influenced by the changes within the sector. Meanwhile, the special project-based structure of construction organisations constitutes additional challenges in facing knowledge production. The study this paper reports on addresses the impact of organisational culture and climate on the intensity of KM activities within construction organisations, with specific focus on the managerial activities that help to manage these challenges and to facilitate KM. A series of semi-structured interviews were undertaken to investigate the KM activities of the contractors operating in Hong Kong. The analysis on the qualitative data revealed that leadership on KM, innovation management, communication management and IT development were key factors that impact positively on the KM activities within the organisations under investigation.

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Our review has demonstrated that small firm growth is a complex phenomenon. The concept ‘growth’ denotes both a change in amount and the process by which that change is attained. Further, the growth can be achieved in different ways and with varying degrees of regularity, and it manifests itself along several different dimensions such as sales, employment, and accumulation of assets. This complexity has naturally led researchers to adopt different approaches to studying growth and to use different measures to assess it. Further, although our review shows that it can fruitfully be regarded as a growth issue, the research on small firms' internationalization has largely developed as a separate stream. Similarly, other relatively separate literatures have evolved, which effectively focus on different modes of growth although mostly without regarding the studies first and foremost as growth studies. This goes for topics such as mergers and acquisitions, diversification, and integration - research streams which have largely ignored the particularities of small firms and which in turn have been largely ignored among researchers focusing on small firm growth.

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Top lists of and praise for the economy's fastest growing firms abound in business media around the world. Similarly, in academic research there has been a tendency to equate firm growth with business success. This tendency appears to be particularly pronounced in-but not confined to­ entrepreneurship research. In this study we critically examine this tendency to portray firm growth as more or less universally favorable. While several theories suggest that growth drives profitability we first show that the available empirical evidence does not support the existence of a general, positive relation­ ship between growth and profitability. Using the theoretical lens of the Resource-Based View (RBV) we then argue that sound growth usually starts with achieving sufficient levels of profitability. In summary, our theoretical argument is as follows: In a population of SMEs, superior profitability is likely to be indicative of having built a resource-based competitive advantage. Building such a valuable and hard to-copy advantage may at first constrain growth. However, the underlying advantage itself and the financial resources generated through high profitability make it possible for firms in this situation to now achieve sound and sustainable growth - which may require building a series of temporary advantages- without having to sacrifice profitability. By contrast, when firms strive for high growth starting from low profitability, the latter often indicates lack of competitive advantage. Therefore growth must be achieved in head-to-head competition with equally attractive alternatives, leading to profitability deterioration rather than improvement. In addition, these low profitability firms are unlikely to be able to finance strategies toward building valuable and difficult-to-imitate advantages while growing.

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The Theory of the Growth of The Firm by Edith Penrose, first published in 1959, is a seminal contribution to the field of management. Penrose's intention was to create a theory of firm growth which was logically consistent and empirically tractable (Buckley and Casson, 2007). Much attention, however, has been focused on her unintended contribution to the resource-based view (henceforth RBV) (e.g. Kor and Mahoney, 2004; Lockett and Thompson, 2004) rather than her firm growth theory. We feel that this is unfortunate because despite a rapidly growing body of empirical work, conceptual advancement in growth studies has been limited (Davidsson and Wiklund, 2000; Davidsson et ai., 2006; Delmar, 1997; Storey, 1994). The growth literature frequently references Penrose's work, but little explicit testing of her ideas has been undertaken. This is surprising given that Penrose's work remains the most comprehensive theory of growth to date. One explanation is that she did not formality present her arguments, favouring verbal exposition over formalized models (Lockett, 2005; Lockett and Thompson, 2004). However, the central propositions and conclusions of her theory can be operationalized and empirically tested.

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Entrepreneurship research and practice places emphasis on company growth as a measure of entrepreneurial success. In many cases, there has been a tendency to give growth a very central role, with some researchers even seeing growth as the very essence of entrepreneurship (Cole, 1949; Sexton, 1997; Stevenson & Gumpert, 1991). A large number of empirical studies of the performance of young and/or small firms use growth as the dependent variable (see reviews by Ardishvili, Cardozo, Harmon, & Vadakath, 1998; Delmar, 1997; Wiklund, 1998). By contrast, the two most prominent views of strategic management – strategic positioning (Porter, 1980) and the resource-based view (Barney, 1991; Wernerfelt, 1984) – are both concerned with achieving competitive advantage and regard achieving economic rents and profitability relative to other competitors as the central measures of firm performance. Strategic entrepreneurship integrates these two perspectives and is simultaneously concerned with opportunity seeking and advantage seeking (Hitt, Ireland, Camp, & Sexton, 2002; Ireland, Hitt, & Sirmon, 2003). Consequently, both company growth and relative profitability are together relevant measures of firm performance in the domain of strategic entrepreneurship.