Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Estimating the Price of ROCs

The UK government introduced the Renewable Obligation (RO), a system of tradable quotas, to encourage the installation of renewable electricity capacity. Each unit of generation from renewables created a renewable obligation certificate (ROC). Electricity generators must either; earn ROCs through their own production, purchase ROCs in the market or pay the buy-out price to comply with the quota set by the RO. A unique aspect of this regulation is that all entities holding ROCs receive a share of the buy-out fund (the sum of all compliance purchases using the buy-out price). This set-up ensures that the difference between the market price for ROCs and the buy-out price should equal the expected share of the buy-out fund, as regulated entities arbitrage these two compliance options. The expected share of the buy-out fund depends on whether enough renewable generation is available to meet the quota. This analysis tests whether variables associated with renewable generation or electricity demand are correlated with, and thus can help predict, the price of ROCs.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

Penalizing Cartels: The Case for Basing Penalties on Price Overcharge

In this paper we set out the welfare economics based case for imposing cartel penalties on the cartel overcharge rather than on the more conventional bases of revenue or profits (illegal gains). To do this we undertake a systematic comparison of a penalty based on the cartel overcharge with three other penalty regimes: fixed penalties; penalties based on revenue, and penalties based on profits. Our analysis is the first to compare these regimes in terms of their impact on both (i) the prices charged by those cartels that do form; and (ii) the number of stable cartels that form (deterrence). We show that the class of penalties based on profits is identical to the class of fixed penalties in all welfare-relevant respects. For the other three types of penalty we show that, for those cartels that do form, penalties based on the overcharge produce lower prices than those based on profit) while penalties based on revenue produce the highest prices. Further, in conjunction with the above result, our analysis of cartel stability (and thus deterrence), shows that penalties based on the overcharge out-perform those based on profits, which in turn out-perform those based on revenue in terms of their impact on each of the following welfare criteria: (a) average overcharge; (b) average consumer surplus; (c) average total welfare.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Silicone moulding for pressure sore debridement.

The radicality of wound debridement is an important feature of the surgical treatment of pressure sores. Several methods such as injection of methylene blue or hydrogen peroxide have been proposed to facilitate and optimise the surgical debridement technique, but none of them proved to be sufficient. We present an innovative modification of the pseudo-tumour technique consisting in the injection of fluid silicone. Vulcanisation of the silicone leads to pressure-sore moulding, permitting a more radical and sterile excision. In a series of 10 paraplegic patients presenting with ischial pressure sores, silicone moulding was used to facilitate debridement. Radical en bloc debridement was achieved in all patients. After a minimal follow-up of 2 years, no complications and recurrences occurred. A three-dimensional (3D) analysis of the silicone prints objectified the pyramidal shape of ischial pressure sores. Our study showed that complete resection without capsular lesion can be easily achieved. Further, it allows the surgeon to analyse the shape and size of the resected defect, which might be helpful to select the appropriate defect coverage technique.

Cholestérol, pression artérielle et fumée de cigarette dans la population en Suisse: le projet MONICA. [Cholesterol, blood-pressure and cigarette-smoking in switzerland - the MONICA-project].

Elevated plasma cholesterol, high blood pressure and cigarette smoking are three major risk factors for coronary heart disease. Within the framework of Switzerland's participation in the multicenter study MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease), proposed by the WHO, a first risk factor survey was conducted in a representative sample of the population (25-74 years) of two reporting units (cantons of Vaud and Fribourg, canton of Tessin). A high blood cholesterol level (>6,7 mmol/l) is the most common risk factor for coronary heart disease among the studied population. Among men, about 13% have elevated blood pressure, the proportion being about one in ten among women; these proportions increase with age and are slightly above these values in Tessin. Cigarette smoking is still a common behavior; between 25 and 45 years one third of the population (male and female) regularly smoke cigarettes.

Blood pressure change and outcome in acute ischemic stroke: the impact of baseline values, previous hypertensive disease and previous antihypertensive treatment.

BACKGROUND: Management of blood pressure (BP) in acute ischemic stroke is controversial. The present study aims to explore the association between baseline BP levels and BP change and outcome in the overall stroke population and in specific subgroups with regard to the presence of arterial hypertensive disease and prior antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: All patients registered in the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between 2003 and 2009 were analyzed. Unfavorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin score more than 2. A local polynomial surface algorithm was used to assess the effect of BP values on outcome in the overall population and in predefined subgroups. RESULTS: Up to a certain point, as initial BP was increasing, optimal outcome was seen with a progressively more substantial BP decrease over the next 24-48 h. Patients without hypertensive disease and an initially low BP seemed to benefit from an increase of BP. In patients with hypertensive disease, initial BP and its subsequent changes seemed to have less influence on clinical outcome. Patients who were previously treated with antihypertensives did not tolerate initially low BPs well. CONCLUSION: Optimal outcome in acute ischemic stroke may be determined not only by initial BP levels but also by the direction and magnitude of associated BP change over the first 24-48 h.

Adiposity indicators and blood pressure in children: nothing beyond body mass index?

Obesity is a major risk factor for elevated blood pressure in children. For instance, in a school-based study of 5207 children aged 10-12 years, the prevalence of hypertension, which is sustained elevated blood pressure over several visits, was 1.5%, 3.9% and 17.5% in normal weight, overweight and obese children, respectively. High body mass index (BMI) is commonly used to define overweight and obesity. However, because BMI is merely a proxy for adiposity, there is a longstanding debate about its performance to predict elevated blood pressure (or any other health conditions associated with adiposity) and whether other adiposity indicators, such as waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio or hip circumference, should not be preferred... In this study, 7.4% of boys and 6.4% of girls had elevated blood pressure. The adiposity indicators were highly correlated to each other, apart from weight, waist-to-hip ratio and skinfold thickness z-scores. All indicators were associated with blood pressure. The ability to identify children with elevated blood pressure, assessed by the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistic, was superior for BMI, body adiposity index and waist-to-height ratio z-scores compared with other indicators. BMI z-scores had a slightly higher AUC than other indicators. The authors concluded that BMIz-scores could be a better predictor of elevated blood pressure in children than other adiposity indicators.

Online estimation of respiratory mechanics in non-invasive pressure support ventilation: a bench model study.

An online algorithm for determining respiratory mechanics in patients using non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in pressure support mode was developed and embedded in a ventilator system. Based on multiple linear regression (MLR) of respiratory data, the algorithm was tested on a patient bench model under conditions with and without leak and simulating a variety of mechanics. Bland-Altman analysis indicates reliable measures of compliance across the clinical range of interest (± 11-18% limits of agreement). Resistance measures showed large quantitative errors (30-50%), however, it was still possible to qualitatively distinguish between normal and obstructive resistances. This outcome provides clinically significant information for ventilator titration and patient management.