Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Validity and use of the UV index : Report from the UVI working group, Schloss Hohenkammer, Germany, 5-7 December 2011

The adequacy of the UV Index (UVI), a simple measure of ambient solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, has been questioned on the basis of recent scientific data on the importance of vitamin D for human health, the mutagenic capacity of radiation in the UVA wavelength, and limitations in the behavioral impact of the UVI as a public awareness tool. A working group convened by ICNIRP and WHO met to assess whether modifications of the UVI were warranted and to discuss ways of improving its effectiveness as a guide to healthy sun-protective behavior. A UV Index greater than 3 was confirmed as indicating ambient UV levels at which harmful sun exposure and sunburns could occur and hence as the threshold for promoting preventive messages. There is currently insufficient evidence about the quantitative relationship of sun exposure, vitamin D, and human health to include vitamin D considerations in sun protection recommendations. The role of UVA in sunlight-induced dermal immunosuppression and DNA damage was acknowledged, but the contribution of UVA to skin carcinogenesis could not be quantified precisely. As ambient UVA and UVB levels mostly vary in parallel in real life situations, any minor modification of the UVI weighting function with respect to UVA-induced skin cancer would not be expected to have a significant impact on the UV Index. Though it has been shown that the UV Index can raise awareness of the risk of UV radiation to some extent, the UVI does not appear to change attitudes to sun protection or behavior in the way it is presently used. Changes in the UVI itself were not warranted based on these findings, but rather research testing health behavior models, including the roles of self-efficacy and self-affirmation in relation to intention to use sun protection among different susceptible groups, should be carried out to develop more successful strategies toward improving sun protection behavior. Health Phys. 103(3):301-306; 2012

Nutrient removal from wastewaters using high performance materials

Return side streams from anaerobic digesters and dewatering facilities at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) contribute a significant proportion of the total nitrogen load on a mainstream process. Similarly, significant phosphate loads are also recirculated in biological nutrient removal (BNR) wastewater treatment plants. Ion exchange using a new material, known by the name MesoLite, shows strong potential for the removal of ammonia from these side streams and an opportunity to concurrently reduce phosphate levels. A pilot plant was designed and operated for several months on an ammonia rich centrate from a dewatering centrifuge at the Oxley Creek WWTP, Brisbane, Australia. The system operated with a detention time in the order of one hour and was operated for between 12 and 24 hours prior to regeneration with a sodium rich solution. The same pilot plant was used to demonstrate removal of phosphate from an abattoir wastewater stream at similar flow rates. Using MesoLite materials, >90% reduction of ammonia was achieved in the centrate side stream. A full-scale process would reduce the total nitrogen load at the Oxley Creek WWTP by at least 18%. This reduction in nitrogen load consequently improves the TKN/COD ratio of the influent and enhances the nitrogen removal performance of the biological nutrient removal process.

Disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous students in New South Wales government special schools

A significant gap exists in the Australian research literature on the disproportionate over-representation of minority groups in special education. The aim of this paper is to make a contribution to the research evidence-base by sketching an outline of the issue as it presents in Australia’s largest education system in the state of New South Wales. Findings from this research show that Indigenous students are equally represented in special schools enrolling students with autism, physical, sensory, and intellectual disabilities, but significantly over-represented in special schools enrolling students under the categories of emotional disturbance, behaviour disorder and juvenile detention. Factors that might influence the disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous children and young people are discussed, and based on these observations, some practical implications for policy and practice are provided.

Bewegungsförderung : evidenzen und perspektiven

Angesichts der gut dokumentierten gesundheitlichen Konsequenzen körperlicher Inaktivität besteht ein wachsendes Interesse an der Förderung regelmäßiger körperlicher Aktivität und an entsprechenden Interventionen. Die wissenschaftliche Evidenz hinsichtlich der Effektivität von Interventionen zur Änderung des körperlichen Aktivitätsverhaltens Erwachsener lässt sich anhand der Ergebnisse randomisierter Kontrolluntersuchungen einschätzen. Interventionsansätze zur Förderung der körperlichen Aktivität lassen sich dabei voneinander unterschieden in: • Individuumsbezogene Interventionen • Bevölkerungsbezogene Interventionen Die nachfolgende Zusammenfassung bietet einen ersten Überblick über die Evidenzlage zu beiden Ansätzen. Vorliegende Forschungsergebnisse werden miteinander verglichen und die forschungsbezogenen sowie praktischen Stärken, aber auch Schwächen der entsprechenden Interventionsansätze werden aufgezeigt.

Wife abuse : are we detecting it?

Our objective was to measure the prevalence of wife abuse in an urban teaching hospital family practice unit and compare this to the frequency of documentation by family physicians. A modified Conflicts Tactics Scale Questionnaire was administered to all female patients either married or common-law older than 16 years during the study period. The respective patients' charts were reviewed for documentation of wife abuse. Three hundred eighty-three charts were reviewed, and 275 surveys were completed (72% response rate). Physical and mental abuse were reported in 8% and 23%, respectively, of the respondents. Four percent of respondents had considered suicide. One percent of the charts had wife assault documented (p = 0.0001). Wife abuse is reported in at least 8% of our patients. There appear to be significant health risks to these women, including homicide, suicide, and rape. Family physician documentation of wife abuse was poor.

Designing an information accountability framework for eHealth

Information privacy is a crucial aspect of eHealth. Appropriate privacy management measures are therefore essential for its success. However, traditional measures for privacy preservation such as rigid access controls (i.e., preventive measures) are not suitable to eHealth because of the specialised and information - intensive nature of healthcare itself, and the nature of the information. Healthcare professionals (HCP) require easy, unrestricted access to as much information as possible towards making well - informed decisions. On the other end of the scale however, consumers (i.e., patients) demand control over their health information and raise concerns for privacy arising from internal activities (i.e., information use by HCPs). A proper balance of these competing concerns is vital for the implementation of successful eHealth systems. Towards reaching this balance, we propose an information accountability framework (IAF) for eHealth systems.

Walk@Work : an automated intervention to increase walking in university employees not achieving 10,000 daily steps

This study assessed the workday step counts of lower active (<10,000 daily steps) university employees using an automated, web-based walking intervention (Walk@Work). METHODS: Academic and administrative staff (n=390; 45.6±10.8years; BMI 27.2±5.5kg/m2; 290 women) at five campuses (Australia [x2], Canada, Northern Ireland and the United States), were given a pedometer, access to the website program (2010-11) and tasked with increasing workday walking by 1000 daily steps above baseline, every two weeks, over a six week period. Step count changes at four weeks post intervention were evaluated relative to campus and baseline walking. RESULTS: Across the sample, step counts significantly increased from baseline to post-intervention (1477 daily steps; p=0.001). Variations in increases were evident between campuses (largest difference of 870 daily steps; p=0.04) and for baseline activity status. Those least active at baseline (<5000 daily steps; n=125) increased step counts the most (1837 daily steps; p=0.001), whereas those most active (7500-9999 daily steps; n=79) increased the least (929 daily steps; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Walk@Work increased workday walking by 25% in this sample overall. Increases occurred through an automated program, at campuses in different countries, and were most evident for those most in need of intervention.

Making more sustainable urban environments by responding to neurodiversity in later life

The ageing population is increasing worldwide, as are a range of chronic diseases, conditions, and physical and cognitive disabilities associated with later life. The older population is also neurologically diverse, with unique and specific challenges around mobility and engagement with the urban environment. Older people tend to interact less with cities and neighbourhoods, putting them at risk of further illnesses and co-morbidities associated with being less physically and socially active. Empirical evidence has shown that reduced access to healthcare services, health-related resources and social interaction opportunities is associated with increases in morbidity and premature mortality. While it is crucial to respond to the needs of this ageing population, there is insufficient evidence for interventions regarding their experiences of public space from the vantage point of neurodiversity. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework to investigate relationships between the sensory and cognitive abilities of older people, and their use and negotiation of the urban environment. The paper will refer to a case example of the city of Logan, an urban area in Queensland, Australia, where current urban development provides opportunities for the design of spaces that take experiences of neurodiversity into account. The framework will inform the development of principles for urban design for increasingly neurologically diverse populations.

Evaluating the effectiveness of heat warning systems : a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Objectives To review the existing research on the effectiveness of heat warning systems (HWSs) in saving lives and reducing harm. Methods A systematic search of major databases was conducted, using “heat, heatwave, high temperature, hot temperature, OR hot climate” AND “warning system”. Results Fifteen articles were retrieved. Six studies asserted that fewer people died of excessive heat after HWS implementation. HWS was associated with reduction in ambulance use. One study estimated the benefits of HWS to be 468millionforsaving117livescomparedto210,000 costs of running the system. Eight studies showed that mere availability of HWS did not lead to behavioral changes. Perceived threat of heat dangers to self/others was the main factor related to heeding warnings and taking proper actions. However, costs and barriers associated with taking protective actions, such as costs of running air conditioners, were of significant concern particularly to the poor. Conclusions Research in this area is limited. Prospective designs applying health behavior theories should establish whether HWS can produce the health benefits they are purported to achieve by identifying the target vulnerable groups.

‘The health-location connection’: using GIS and social media on smartphones to track engagement with the Local urban environment for work, recreation, and physical activity

A technologically innovative study was undertaken across two suburbs in Brisbane, Australia, to assess socioeconomic differences in women's use of the local environment for work, recreation, and physical activity. Mothers from high and low socioeconomic suburbs were instructed to continue with usual daily routines, and to use mobile phone applications (Facebook Places, Twitter, and Foursquare) on their mobile phones to ‘check-in’ at each location and destination they reached during a one-week period. These smartphone applications are able to track travel logistics via built-in geographical information systems (GIS), which record participants’ points of latitude and longitude at each destination they reach. Location data were downloaded to Google Earth and excel for analysis. Women provided additional qualitative data via text regarding the reasons and social contexts of their travel. We analysed 2183 ‘check-ins’ for 54 women in this pilot study to gain quantitative, qualitative, and spatial data on human-environment interactions. Data was gathered on distances travelled, mode of transport, reason for travel, social context of travel, and categorised in terms of physical activity type – walking, running, sports, gym, cycling, or playing in the park. We found that the women in both suburbs had similar daily routines with the exception of physical activity. We identified 15% of ‘check-ins’ in the lower socioeconomic group as qualifying for the physical activity category, compared with 23% in the higher socioeconomic group. This was explained by more daily walking for transport (1.7kms to 0.2kms) and less car travel each week (28.km to 48.4kms) in the higher socioeconomic suburb. We ascertained insights regarding the socio-cultural influences on these differences via additional qualitative data. We discuss the benefits and limitations of using new technologies and Google Earth with implications for informing future physical and social aspects of urban design, and health promotion in socioeconomically diverse cities.

Injuries leading to hospitalisation in the first year of life : analysis by trimester of age using coded data and textual description

Objective: To describe unintentional injuries to children aged less than one year, using coded and textual information, in three-month age bands to reflect their development over the year. Methods: Data from the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit was used. The Unit collects demographic, clinical and circumstantial details about injured persons presenting to selected emergency departments across the State. Only injuries coded as unintentional in children admitted to hospital were included for this analysis. Results: After editing, 1,082 children remained for analysis, 24 with transport-related injuries. Falls were the most common injury, but becoming proportionately less over the year, whereas burns and scalds and foreign body injuries increased. The proportion of injuries due to contact with persons or objects varied little, but poisonings were relatively more common in the first and fourth three-month periods. Descriptions indicated that family members were somehow causally involved in 16% of injuries. Our findings are in qualitative agreement with comparable previous studies. Conclusion: The pattern of injuries varies over the first year of life and is clearly linked to the child's increasing mobility. Implications: Injury patterns in the first year of life should be reported over shorter intervals. Preventive measures for young children need to be designed with their rapidly changing developmental stage in mind, using a variety of strategies, one of which could be opportunistic developmentally specific education of parents. Injuries in young children are of abiding concern given their immediate health and emotional effects, and potential for long-term adverse sequelae. In Australia, in the financial year 2006/07, 2,869 children less than 12 months of age were admitted to hospital for an unintentional injury, a rate of 10.6 per 1,000, representing a considerable economic and social burden. Given that many of these injuries are preventable, this is particularly concerning. Most epidemiologic studies analyse data in five-year age bands, so children less than five years of age are examined as a group. This study includes only those children younger than one year of age to identify injury detail lost in analyses of the larger group, as we hypothesised that the injury pattern varied with the developmental stage of the child. The authors of several North American studies have commented that in dealing with injuries in pre-school children, broad age groupings are inadequate to do justice to the rapid developmental changes in infancy and early childhood, and have in consequence analysed injuries in shorter intervals. To our knowledge, no similar analysis of Australian infant injuries has been published to date. This paper describes injury in children less than 12 months of age using data from the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU).

Rates of attendance at a smoking cessation clinic within a cardiac rehabilitation service

Objectives: Smoking cessation has been shown to be an important intervention for preventing cardiovascular events and improving the health of patients with heart disease. However, unaided quit attempts in these patients often leads to high rates of failure and a return to smoking. Outpatient smoking cessation clinics using face-to-face counseling, ongoing behavioral support, advice on smoking pharmacotherapy and objective monitoring, have been found to be one of the most effective interventions for improving quit smoking rates. An outpatient smoking cessation clinic was trialed within a cardiac rehabilitation service in order to explore its effects on smoking rates for patients with or at risk of heart disease. Attendance rates to the clinic were also monitored. Methods: A descriptive exploratory design was used for this newly developed clinic. Patients who currently smoked tobacco and who had a history of either coronary artery disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or those seen under a chest pain assessment service were invited to an outpatient ‘Cardiac Patients Smokers Clinic’. Initially patients were offered up to 10 clinic visits over a 3 month period. Follow-up clinic visits were conducted at 3, 6 and 12 months. A portable carbon monoxide meter was used to objectively measure levels of smoking and validate smoking abstinence. Primary outcomes included rates of attendance. Results: Preliminary findings showed 24 per cent of participants (N = 6) completed all their clinic visits and remained smoke free as measured by their ongoing expired carbon monoxide readings. Clinic attendance rates appeared lowest for those with significant mental health issues such as schizophrenia or substance abuse. However, rates of attendance were improved by having an administration officer make reminder telephone calls prior to clinic visits. Conclusions: Early findings indicate the feasibility of providing a specialist smoking cessation clinic within a cardiac rehabilitation service. Further, that reminder telephone calls prior to appointments improved attendance rates in patients with heart disease to this type of clinic. However, future investigations are warranted.

Sitting-time, physical activity and depressive symptoms in mid-aged women

Background: Associations between sitting-time and physical activity (PA) with depression are unclear. Purpose: To examine concurrent and prospective associations between both sitting-time and PA with prevalent depressive symptoms in mid-aged Australian women. Methods: Data were from 8,950 women, aged 50-55 years in 2001, who completed mail surveys in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression questionnaire. Associations between sitting-time (≤4, >4-7, >7 hrs/day) and PA (none, some, meeting guidelines) with depressive symptoms (symptoms/no symptoms) were examined in 2011 in concurrent and lagged mixed effect logistic modeling. Both main effects and interaction models were developed. Results: In main effects modeling, women who sat >7 hrs/day (OR 1.47, 95%CI 1.29-1.67) and women who did no PA (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.75-2.27) were more likely to have depressive symptoms than women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and who met PA guidelines, respectively. In interaction modeling, the likelihood of depressive symptoms in women who sat >7 hrs/day and did no PA was triple that of women who sat ≤4 hrs/day and met PA guidelines (OR 2.96, 95%CI 2.37-3.69). In prospective main effects and interaction modeling, sitting-time was not associated with depressive symptoms, but women who did no PA were more likely than those who met PA guidelines to have future depressive symptoms (OR 1.26, 95%CI 1.08-1.47). Conclusions: Increasing PA to a level commensurate with PA guidelines can alleviate current depression symptoms and prevent future symptoms in mid-aged women. Reducing sitting-time may ameliorate current symptoms.

A can of worms in a hornets' nest : controversial issues on alcohol and pregnancy

Since the identification of the Foetal Alcohol Syndrome in 1973, researchers have been attempting to discover how much alcohol is deleterious to the developing foetus. This article examines the research evidence of more than a decade suggesting that alcohol is teratogenic. The heated debate between experts in the field both in U.K and Australia is discussed. Implications and recommendations are included.