975 resultados para Predictive-value


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Anti-angiogenic therapies are currently in cancer clinical trials, but to date there are no established tests for evaluating the angiogenic status of a patient. We measured 11 circulating angiogenesis-associated molecules in cancer patients before and after local treatment. The purpose of our study was to screen for possible relationships among the different molecules and between individual molecules and tumor burden. We measured VEGF-A, PlGF, SCF, MMP-9, EDB+ -fibronectin, sVEGFR-2, sVEGFR-1, salphaVbeta3, sTie-2, IL-8 and CRP in the blood of 22 healthy volunteers, 17 early breast, 17 early colorectal, and 8 advanced sarcoma/melanoma cancer patients. Breast cancer patients had elevated levels of VEGF-A and sTie-2, colorectal cancer patients of VEGF-A, MMP-9, sTie-2, IL-8 and CRP, and melanoma/sarcoma patients of sVEGFR-1. salphaVbeta3 was decreased in colorectal cancer patients. A correlation between VEGF-A and MMP-9 was found. After tumor removal, MMP-9 and salphaVbeta3 significantly decreased in breast and CRP in colorectal cancer, whereas sVEGFR-1 increased in colorectal cancer patients. In sarcoma/melanoma patients treated regionally with TNF and chemotherapy we observed a rise in VEGF-A, SCF, VEGFR-2, MMP-9, Tie-2 and CRP, a correlation between CRP and IL-8, and a decreased in sVEGFR-1 levels. In conclusion, among all factors measured, only VEGF-A and MMP-9 consistently correlated to each other, elevated CRP levels were associated with tumor burden, whereas sVEGF-R1 increased after tumor removal in colorectal cancer. Treatment with chemotherapy and TNF induced changes consistent with an angiogenic switch. These results warrant a prospective study to compare the effect of surgical tumor removal vs. chemotherapy on some of these markers and to evaluate their prognostic/predictive value.

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OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.

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The McIsaac scoring system is a tool designed to predict the probability of streptococcal pharyngitis in children aged 3 to 17 years with a sore throat. Although it does not allow the physician to make the diagnosis of streptococcal pharyngitis, it enables to identify those children with a sore throat in whom rapid antigen detection tests have a good predictive value.

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Recent progresses in genetics have opened new avenues to further our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying cardiovascular disease, raising, new expectations in the field of personalized medicine. Genetic tests may have a high predictive value for rare monogenic diseases. The situation is very different for common polygenic diseases, such as myocardial infarction, type 2 diabetes or stroke. The results from recent genome-wide association studies have provided useful information for research, but have not yet been proven to be clinically useful. It is therefore currently not recommended to conducted genetic testing to guide cardiovascular prevention neither in clinical nor in public health settings.

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Commentaire de: Gaziano TA, Young CR, Fitzmaurice G, Atwood S, Gaziano JM. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort. Lancet. 2008;371(9616):923-31. PMID: 18342687

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BACKGROUND: Because ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is not available everywhere, the objective of the study was to determine whether nurse-measured blood pressure could be an acceptable substitute to ABPM. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 2385 consecutive patients referred to our hypertension clinic for the performance of ABPM. Before ambulatory monitoring was performed, a nurse-measured BP was obtained three times using a Y-tube connecting the sphygmomanometer and the recorder. We compared the mean value of the three nurse-measured blood pressures with that of the 12h daytime ambulatory monitoring, considered as the reference. RESULTS: The difference between the nurse-measured and the ambulatory blood pressure was small but statistically significant, indicating that nurse-measured blood pressure tends to overestimate both diastolic and systolic blood pressure. The difference between the nurse blood pressure and ABPM was greater among treated hypertensive patients than untreated patients. To diagnose hypertension, defined as a blood pressure of over 140/90mmHg by ABPM, the positive predictive value of the nurse blood pressure was 0.81 and the negative predictive value 0.63. However, these predictive values could be improved with less stringent cut-off values of blood pressure. Thus, for a diastolic blood pressure above 100mmHg, the positive predictive value of nurse blood pressure was 0.55 and the negative predictive value 0.91. These figures were relatively similar for previously treated and untreated patients. CONCLUSION: Nurse blood pressure is less accurate than ABPM in diagnosing hypertension, defined as a blood pressure of over 140/90mmHg. It could, however, be an acceptable substitute, especially to exclude people who do not need to be treated, in situations where lower resources require a less rigorous definition of hypertension.

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BACKGROUND: The hospital readmission rate has been proposed as an important outcome indicator computable from routine statistics. However, most commonly used measures raise conceptual issues. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the usefulness of the computerized algorithm for identifying avoidable readmissions on the basis of minimum bias, criterion validity, and measurement precision. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: A total of 131,809 hospitalizations of patients discharged alive from 49 hospitals were used to compare the predictive performance of risk adjustment methods. A subset of a random sample of 570 medical records of discharge/readmission pairs in 12 hospitals were reviewed to estimate the predictive value of the screening of potentially avoidable readmissions. MEASURES: Potentially avoidable readmissions, defined as readmissions related to a condition of the previous hospitalization and not expected as part of a program of care and occurring within 30 days after the previous discharge, were identified by a computerized algorithm. Unavoidable readmissions were considered as censored events. RESULTS: A total of 5.2% of hospitalizations were followed by a potentially avoidable readmission, 17% of them in a different hospital. The predictive value of the screen was 78%; 27% of screened readmissions were judged clearly avoidable. The correlation between the hospital rate of clearly avoidable readmission and all readmissions rate, potentially avoidable readmissions rate or the ratio of observed to expected readmissions were respectively 0.42, 0.56 and 0.66. Adjustment models using clinical information performed better. CONCLUSION: Adjusted rates of potentially avoidable readmissions are scientifically sound enough to warrant their inclusion in hospital quality surveillance.

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PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review and perform a meta-analysis on the diagnostic performances of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET) for giant cell arteritis (GCA), with or without polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR). METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched for articles in English that evaluated FDG PET in GCA or PMR. All complete studies were reviewed and qualitatively analysed. Studies that fulfilled the three following criteria were included in a meta-analysis: (1) FDG PET used as a diagnostic tool for GCA and PMR; (2) American College of Rheumatology and Healey criteria used as the reference standard for the diagnosis of GCA and PMR, respectively; and (3) the use of a control group. RESULTS: We found 14 complete articles. A smooth linear or long segmental pattern of FDG uptake in the aorta and its main branches seems to be a characteristic pattern of GCA. Vessel uptake that was superior to liver uptake was considered an efficient marker for vasculitis. The meta-analysis of six selected studies (101 vasculitis and 182 controls) provided the following results: sensitivity 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.91], specificity 0.89 (95% CI 0.78-0.94), positive predictive value 0.85 (95% CI 0.62-0.95), negative predictive value 0.88 (95% CI 0.72-0.95), positive likelihood ratio 6.73 (95% CI 3.55-12.77), negative likelihood ratio 0.25 (95% CI 0.13-0.46) and accuracy 0.84 (95% CI 0.76-0.90). CONCLUSION: We found overall valuable diagnostic performances for FDG PET against reference criteria. Standardized FDG uptake criteria are needed to optimize these diagnostic performances.

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OBJECTIVE: To discuss, on the basis of the experience of two clinical cases and extensive literature review, the significance of extremely low levels of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), also known as Müllerian-inhibiting substance, in infertile women. DESIGN: Case report. SETTING: University-based infertility clinic at a medical center in Switzerland. PATIENT(S): Two women, 29 and 41 years of age and with a 2- and 4-year history of secondary infertility, respectively. INTERVENTION(S): Clinical, radiological, and biological investigation of infertility, including repeated measurements of the serum AMH with serial ELISA assays. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Levels of AMH and development of ongoing pregnancy. RESULT(S): Both women had a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy despite undetectable AMH levels. CONCLUSION(S): Although it is helpful for day-to-day management of infertile patients, the predictive value of AMH for the occurrence of a spontaneous ongoing pregnancy has limits.

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Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and among the leading causes of stroke and heart failure in Western populations. Despite the increasing size of clinical trials assessing the efficacy and safety of AF therapies, achieved outcomes have not always matched expectations. Considering that AF is a symptom of many possible underlying diseases, clinical research for this arrhythmia should take into account their respective pathophysiology. Accordingly, the definition of the study populations to be included should rely on the established as well as on the new classifications of AF and take advantage from a differentiated look at the AF-electrocardiogram and from increasingly large spectrum of biomarkers. Such an integrated approach could bring researchers and treating physicians one step closer to the ultimate vision of personalized therapy, which, in this case, means an AF therapy based on refined diagnostic elements in accordance with scientific evidence gathered from clinical trials. By applying clear-cut patient inclusion criteria, future studies will be of smaller size and thus of lower cost. In addition, the findings from such studies will be of greater predictive value at the individual patient level, allowing for pinpointed therapeutic decisions in daily practice.

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OBJECTIVE: Prenatal diagnosis has been shown to decrease pre-operative acidosis and might prevent the occurrence of disturbed developmental outcome. The aim of this study is to evaluate parameters for acidosis and their predictive value on developmental outcome in newborns with congenital heart disease. METHODS: A total of 117 patients requiring surgery for structural heart disease in the first 31 days of life were included. Diagnosis was established either pre- or postnatally. Preoperative values of lactate, pH and base excess levels were compared to the occurrence of disturbed developmental outcome, i.e. an underperformance of more than 10% on the P90 of a standardized Dutch developmental scale. Patients were divided into groups according to blood levels of acidosis parameters, using receiver operating characteristics curves to determine cut-off values for pH, base excess and lactate. RESULTS: No significant difference in developmental outcome was found using values for pH or base excess as a cut-off level. Preoperative lactate values exceeding 6.1 mmol/l resulted in a significant increase in impaired development compared to infants with a pre-operative lactate lower than 6.1 mmol/l: 40.9% vs 15.1% in (p=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-operative lactate values might have a prognostic value on developmental outcome in newborns with congenital heart disease. The limited prognostic value of pH can be explained by the fact that pH can be easily corrected, while lactate better reflects the total oxygen debt experienced by these patients.

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Small daily positive energy imbalances of 200 to 800 kJ (about 50 to 200 kcal) due to reduced resting energy expenditure (REE), reduced diet-induced thermogenesis, or physical inactivity are believed to predispose to obesity. However, estimates of the magnitude of the weight gain often fail to account for concurrent changes in body composition and increases in maintenance energy requirements as weight increases and energy equilibrium is re-established. Using previously reported data on body composition and REE in women and the energy cost of tissue deposition, we used mathematical models to predict the theoretical effect of a persistent reduction in energy expenditure on long-term weight gain, assuming no adaptation in energy intake. The analyses indicate the following effects of a reduced level of energy expenditure in lean and obese women: (i) REE rises more slowly with increasing degrees of obesity due to a declining proportion of the more metabolically active fat-free mass; so, for the same positive energy balance, a significantly greater weight gain is expected for obese than for lean women before energy equilibrium is re-established; (ii) due to the greater energy density of adipose tissue, the time course of weight gain to achieve energy balance is longer for obese subjects: in general, this is approximately five years for lean and ten years for obese women; (iii) the magnitude of weight gain of lean women in response to a reduced energy expenditure of 200 to 800 kJ/day is only about 3 to 15 kg, amounts insufficient to explain severe obesity.

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CONTEXT: Type 2 diabetes is associated with increased fracture risk but paradoxically greater bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS) is derived from the texture of the spine dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image and is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk, providing information independent of BMD. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the ability of lumbar spine TBS to account for increased fracture risk in diabetes. DESIGN AND SETTING: We performed a retrospective cohort study using BMD results from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Patients: We included 29,407 women 50 years old and older with baseline DXA examinations, among whom 2356 had diagnosed diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Health service records were assessed for incident nontraumatic major osteoporotic fractures (mean follow-up 4.7 years). RESULTS: Diabetes was associated with higher BMD at all sites but lower lumbar spine TBS in unadjusted and adjusted models (all P < .001). The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for a measurement in the lowest vs the highest tertile was less than 1 for BMD (all P < .001) but was increased for lumbar spine TBS [aOR 2.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.30-2.97]. Major osteoporotic fractures were identified in 175 women (7.4%) with and 1493 (5.5%) without diabetes (P < .001). Lumbar spine TBS was a BMD-independent predictor of fracture and predicted fractures in those with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46) and without diabetes (hazard ratio 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.38). The effect of diabetes on fracture was reduced when lumbar spine TBS was added to a prediction model but was paradoxically increased from adding BMD measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS predicts osteoporotic fractures in those with diabetes, and captures a larger portion of the diabetes-associated fracture risk than BMD.

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OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular function and pulmonary circulation in chronic mountain sickness (CMS) patients with rest and stress echocardiography compared with healthy high-altitude (HA) dwellers. BACKGROUND: CMS or Monge's disease is defined by excessive erythrocytosis (hemoglobin >21 g/dl in males, 19 g/dl in females) and severe hypoxemia. In some cases, a moderate or severe increase in pulmonary pressure is present, suggesting a similar pathogenesis of pulmonary hypertension. METHODS: In La Paz (Bolivia, 3,600 m sea level), 46 CMS patients and 40 HA dwellers of similar age were evaluated at rest and during semisupine bicycle exercise. Pulmonary artery pressure (PAP), pulmonary vascular resistance, and cardiac function were estimated by Doppler echocardiography. RESULTS: Compared with HA dwellers, CMS patients showed RV dilation at rest (RV mid diameter: 36 ± 5 mm vs. 32 ± 4 mm, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.001) and reduced RV fractional area change both at rest (35 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 9%, p = 0.002) and during exercise (36 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 8%, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.005). The RV systolic longitudinal function (RV-S') decreased in CMS patients, whereas it increased in the control patients (p < 0.0001) at peak stress. The RV end-systolic pressure-area relationship, a load independent surrogate of RV contractility, was similar in CMS patients and HA dwellers with a significant increase in systolic PAP and pulmonary vascular resistance in CMS patients (systolic PAP: 50 ± 12 mm Hg vs. 38 ± 8 mm Hg, CMS vs. HA, p < 0.0001; pulmonary vascular resistance: 2.9 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l vs. 2.2 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l, p = 0.03). Both groups showed comparable systolic and diastolic left ventricular function both at rest and during stress. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable RV contractile reserve in CMS and HA suggests that the lower resting values of RV function in CMS may represent a physiological adaptation to chronic hypoxic conditions rather than impaired RV function. (Chronic Mountain Sickness, Systemic Vascular Function [CMS]; NCT01182792).

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BACKGROUND: Conventional x-ray angiography frequently underestimates the true burden of atherosclerosis. Although intravascular ultrasound allows for imaging of coronary plaque, this invasive technique is inappropriate for screening or serial examinations. We therefore sought to develop a noninvasive free-breathing MR technique for coronary vessel wall imaging. We hypothesized that such an approach would allow for in vivo imaging of coronary atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ten subjects, including 5 healthy adult volunteers (aged 35+/-17 years, range 19 to 56 years) and 5 patients (aged 60+/-4 years, range 56 to 66 years) with x-ray-confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD), were studied with a T2-weighted, dual-inversion, fast spin-echo MR sequence. Multiple adjacent 5-mm cross-sectional images of the proximal right coronary artery were obtained with an in-plane resolution of 0.5x1.0 mm. A right hemidiaphragmatic navigator was used to facilitate free-breathing MR acquisition. Coronary vessel wall images were readily acquired in all subjects. Both coronary vessel wall thickness (1.5+/-0.2 versus 1.0+/-0.2 mm) and wall area (21.2+/-3.1 versus 13.7+/-4.2 mm(2)) were greater in patients with CAD (both P:<0.02 versus healthy adults). CONCLUSIONS: In vivo free-breathing coronary vessel wall and plaque imaging with MR has been successfully implemented in humans. Coronary wall thickness and wall area were significantly greater in patients with angiographic CAD. The presented technique may have potential applications in patients with known or suspected atherosclerotic CAD or for serial evaluation after pharmacological intervention.