Future development of gastrointestinal cancer incidence and mortality rates in Switzerland: a tumour registry- and population-based projection up to 2030.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: Since tumour burden consumes substantial healthcare resources, precise cancer incidence estimations are pivotal to define future needs of national healthcare. This study aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates of oesophageal, gastric, pancreatic, hepatic and colorectal cancers up to 2030 in Switzerland. METHODS: Swiss Statistics provides national incidences and mortality rates of various cancers, and models of future developments of the Swiss population. Cancer incidences and mortality rates from 1985 to 2009 were analysed to estimate trends and to predict incidence and mortality rates up to 2029. Linear regressions and Joinpoint analyses were performed to estimate the future trends of incidences and mortality rates. RESULTS: Crude incidences of oesophageal, pancreas, liver and colorectal cancers have steadily increased since 1985, and will continue to increase. Gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates reveal an ongoing decrease. Pancreatic and liver cancer crude mortality rates will keep increasing, whereas colorectal cancer mortality on the contrary will fall. Mortality from oesophageal cancer will plateau or minimally increase. If we consider European population-standardised incidence rates, oesophageal, pancreatic and colorectal cancer incidences are steady. Gastric cancers are diminishing and liver cancers will follow an increasing trend. Standardised mortality rates show a diminution for all but liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The oncological burden of gastrointestinal cancer will significantly increase in Switzerland during the next two decades. The crude mortality rates globally show an ongoing increase except for gastric and colorectal cancers. Enlarged healthcare resources to take care of these complex patient groups properly will be needed.

Distribution and population genetic variation of cryptic species of the Alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in the Central Alps.

BACKGROUND: Many species contain evolutionarily distinct groups that are genetically highly differentiated but morphologically difficult to distinguish (i.e., cryptic species). The presence of cryptic species poses significant challenges for the accurate assessment of biodiversity and, if unrecognized, may lead to erroneous inferences in many fields of biological research and conservation. RESULTS: We tested for cryptic genetic variation within the broadly distributed alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus across several major European drainages in the central Alps. Bayesian clustering and multivariate analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci, combined with phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA, were used to assess population genetic structure and diversity. We identified two genetically highly differentiated lineages (A and B) that had no obvious differences in regional distribution patterns, and occurred in local sympatry. Furthermore, the two lineages differed in relative abundance, overall levels of genetic diversity as well as patterns of population structure: lineage A was abundant, widely distributed and had a higher level of genetic variation, whereas lineage B was less abundant, more prevalent in spring-fed tributaries than glacier-fed streams and restricted to high elevations. Subsequent morphological analyses revealed that traits previously acknowledged as intraspecific variation of B. alpinus in fact segregated these two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings indicate that even common and apparently ecologically well-studied species may consist of reproductively isolated units, with distinct evolutionary histories and likely different ecology and evolutionary potential. These findings emphasize the need to investigate hidden diversity even in well-known species to allow for appropriate assessment of biological diversity and conservation measures.

Characterization of clinical and electrocardiographic findings in a youth population

Resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been employed in the evaluation of young asymptomatic subjects to detect pre-existing heart diseases. Although the incorporation of routine ECG remains controversial, there is increasing evidence that cardiomyopathies and ion channelopathies show ECG changes as the initial manifestation. The causes of sudden cardiac death in young people show a significant geographical variation. We aim to determine the prevalence and spectrum of ECG findings in a youth population. Methodology: From May 2010 to April 2013, a total of 976 young secondary school students (mean age, 14 years; range, 13-15) underwent voluntary medical screening that included a resting 12-lead ECG and structured clinical survey. Subjects with abnormal ECG findings were classified into two groups: major ECG findings group, which fulfilled a pre-specified checklist to screen for principal structural and electrical cardiopathies, and minor ECG findings group showing other ECG changes. The major ECG findings group was referred for secondary diagnostic tests at a tertiary institution. Results: Of the 976 subjects screened, 252 (25.82%; CI95%, 23.17-28.66) had ECG findings. Of note, 17 (1.74%) had major findings and 235 (24.08%) had minor findings on ECG. The prevalence of cardiovascular pathology within the major ECG findings group was 35.29%. The prevalence of ECG abnormalities was significantly higher in males than in females (29% vs 20.9%, P<0.01). Conclusions: The prevalence of ECG findings in a youth population was 25.82%. There were significant gender differences. The inclusion of universal ECG screening, in addition to medical history, may increase the sensitivity of a cardiovascular screening program. Knowledge of the spectrum and prevalence of ECG findings and disease conditions would be pivotal in designing customized screening programs

A qualitative analysis of immigrant population health practices in the Girona Healthcare Region

The research we present here forms part of a two-phase project - one quantitative and the other qualitative - assessing the use of primary health care services. This paper presents the qualitative phase of said research, which is aimed at ascertaining the needs, beliefs, barriers to access and health practices of the immigrant population in comparison with the native population, as well as the perceptions of healthcare professionals. Moroccan and sub-Saharan were the immigrants to who the qualitative phase was specifically addressed. The aims of this paper are as follows: to analyse any possible implications of family organisation in the health practices of the immigrant population; to ascertain social practices relating to illness; to understand the significances of sexual and reproductive health practices; and to ascertain the ideas and perceptions of immigrants, local people and professionals regarding health and the health system. Methods: qualitative research based on discursive analysis. Data gathering techniques consisted of discussion groups with health system users and semi-structured individual interviews with healthcare professionals. The sample was taken from the Basic Healthcare Areas of Salt and Banyoles (belonging to the Girona Healthcare Region), the discussion groups being comprised of (a) 6 immigrant Moroccan women, (b) 7 immigrant sub-Saharan African women and (c) 6 immigrant and native population men (2 native men, 2 Moroccan men and 2 sub-Saharan men); and the semi-structured interviews being conducted with the following healthcare professionals: (a) 3 gynaecologists, (b) 3 nurses and 1 administrative staff. Results: use of the healthcare system is linked to the perception of not being well, knowledge of the healthcare system, length of time resident in Spain and interiorization of traditional Western medicine as a cure mechanism. The divergences found among the groups of immigrants, local people and healthcare professionals with regard to healthcare education, use of the healthcare service, sexual and reproductive healthcare and reticence with regard to being attended by healthcare personnel of the opposite sex demonstrate a need to work with the immigrant population as a heterogeneous group. Conclusions: the results we have obtained support the idea that feeling unwell is a psycho-social process, as it takes place within a specific socio-cultural situation and spans a range of beliefs, perceptions and ideas regarding symptomology and how to treat it

The adequacy of different robust statistical tests in comparing two independent groups

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each condition, 5000 replications per group were generated. The results obtained by this study show an adequate type error I rate but not a high power for the confidence intervals. In general, for the two scenarios studied (mean population differences and not mean population differences) in the different conditions analysed, the Mann-Whitney U-test demonstrated strong performance, and a little worse the t-test of Yuen-Welch.

Validation of an instrument to evaluate quality of life in the aging population: WHOQOL-AGE.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for short, specific instruments that assess quality of life (QOL) adequately in the older adult population. The aims of the present study were to obtain evidence on the validity of the inferences that could be drawn from an instrument to measure QOL in the aging population (people 50+ years old), and to test its psychometric properties. METHODS: The instrument, WHOQOL-AGE, comprised 13 positive items, assessed on a five-point rating scale, and was administered to nationally representative samples (n = 9987) from Finland, Poland, and Spain. Cronbach's alpha was employed to assess internal consistency reliability, whereas the validity of the questionnaire was assessed by means of factor analysis, graded response model, Pearson's correlation coefficient and unpaired t-test. Normative values were calculated across countries and for different age groups. RESULTS: The satisfactory goodness-of-fit indices confirmed that the factorial structure of WHOQOL-AGE comprises two first-order factors. Cronbach's alpha was 0.88 for factor 1, and 0.84 for factor 2. Evidence supporting a global score was found with a second-order factor model, according to the goodness-of-fit indices: CFI = 0.93, TLI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.073. Convergent validity was estimated at r = 0.75 and adequate discriminant validity was also found. Significant differences were found between healthy individuals (74.19 ± 13.21) and individuals with at least one chronic condition (64.29 ± 16.29), supporting adequate known-groups validity. CONCLUSIONS: WHOQOL-AGE has shown good psychometric properties in Finland, Poland, and Spain. Therefore, considerable support is provided to using the WHOQOL-AGE to measure QOL in older adults in these countries, and to compare the QOL of older and younger adults.

Nutrimetabolomics fingerprinting to identify biomarkers of bread exposure in a free-living population from the PREDIMED study cohort

Bread is one of the most widely consumed foods. Its impact on human health is currently of special interest for researchers. We aimed to identify biomarkers of bread consumption by applying a nutrimetabolomic approach to a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC q-TOF-MS and multivariate analysis was applied to human urine from 155 subjects stratified by habitual bread consumption in three groups: non-consumers of bread (n = 56), white-bread consumers (n = 48) and whole-grain bread consumers (n = 51). The most differential metabolites (variable importance for projection ≥1.5) included compounds originating from cereal plant phytochemicals such as benzoxazinoids and alkylresorcinol metabolites, and compounds produced by gut microbiota (such as enterolactones, hydroxybenzoic and dihydroferulic acid metabolites). Pyrraline, riboflavin, 3-indolecarboxylic acid glucuronide, 2,8-dihydroxyquinoline glucuronide and N-α-acetylcitrulline were also tentatively identified. In order to combine multiple metabolites in a model to predict bread consumption, a stepwise logistic regression analysis was used. Receiver operating curves were constructed to evaluate the global performance of individual metabolites and their combination. The area under the curve values [AUC (95 % CI)] of combined models ranged from 77.8 % (69.1 86.4 %) to 93.7 % (89.4 98.1 %), whereas the AUC for the metabolites included in the models had weak values when they were evaluated individually: from 58.1 % (46.6 69.7 %) to 78.4 % (69.8 87.1 %). Our study showed that a daily bread intake significantly impacted on the urinary metabolome, despite being examined under uncontrolled free-living conditions. We further concluded that a combination of several biomarkers of exposure is better than a single biomarker for the predictive ability of discriminative analysis.

Nutrimetabolomics fingerprinting to identify biomarkers of bread exposure in a free-living population from the PREDIMED study cohort

Bread is one of the most widely consumed foods. Its impact on human health is currently of special interest for researchers. We aimed to identify biomarkers of bread consumption by applying a nutrimetabolomic approach to a free-living population. An untargeted HPLC q-TOF-MS and multivariate analysis was applied to human urine from 155 subjects stratified by habitual bread consumption in three groups: non-consumers of bread (n = 56), white-bread consumers (n = 48) and whole-grain bread consumers (n = 51). The most differential metabolites (variable importance for projection ≥1.5) included compounds originating from cereal plant phytochemicals such as benzoxazinoids and alkylresorcinol metabolites, and compounds produced by gut microbiota (such as enterolactones, hydroxybenzoic and dihydroferulic acid metabolites). Pyrraline, riboflavin, 3-indolecarboxylic acid glucuronide, 2,8-dihydroxyquinoline glucuronide and N-α-acetylcitrulline were also tentatively identified. In order to combine multiple metabolites in a model to predict bread consumption, a stepwise logistic regression analysis was used. Receiver operating curves were constructed to evaluate the global performance of individual metabolites and their combination. The area under the curve values [AUC (95 % CI)] of combined models ranged from 77.8 % (69.1 86.4 %) to 93.7 % (89.4 98.1 %), whereas the AUC for the metabolites included in the models had weak values when they were evaluated individually: from 58.1 % (46.6 69.7 %) to 78.4 % (69.8 87.1 %). Our study showed that a daily bread intake significantly impacted on the urinary metabolome, despite being examined under uncontrolled free-living conditions. We further concluded that a combination of several biomarkers of exposure is better than a single biomarker for the predictive ability of discriminative analysis.

CHEMICAL COMPOSITION VARIABILITY IN THE Uncaria tomentosa (cat’s claw) WILD POPULATION

Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) is a vine widely distributed throughout the South-American rainforest. Many studies investigating the chemical composition of cat's claw have focused on the pentacyclic (POA) and tetracyclic oxindole alkaloids (TOA), quinovic acid glycosides (QAG), and polyphenols (PPH). Nevertheless, it is still uncertain how environmental factors affect chemical groups. The aim of this work was to better understand the influence of environmental factors (geographic origin, altitude, and season) on cat's claw chemical composition. Stem bark, branches and leaf samples were extracted and analyzed by HPLC-PDA. The data obtained were explored by multivariate analysis (HCA and PCA). Higher amounts of oxindole alkaloids and PPH were found in leaves, followed by stem bark and branches. No clear relationship was verified among geographic origin or altitude and chemical composition, which remained unchanged regardless of season (dry or rainy). However, three oxindole alkaloid chemotypes were clearly recognized: chemotype I (POA with cis D/E ring junction); chemotype II (POA with trans D/E ring junction); and chemotype III (TOA). Thus, environmental factors appear to have only a minor influence on the chemical heterogeneity of the cat's claw wild population. Nevertheless, the occurrence of different chemotypes based on alkaloid profiles seems to be clear.

Demographic Modelling of Human Population Growth

This work presents models and methods that have been used in producing forecasts of population growth. The work is intended to emphasize the reliability bounds of the model forecasts. Leslie model and various versions of logistic population models are presented. References to literature and several studies are given. A lot of relevant methodology has been developed in biological sciences. The Leslie modelling approach involves the use of current trends in mortality,fertility, migration and emigration. The model treats population divided in age groups and the model is given as a recursive system. Other group of models is based on straightforward extrapolation of census data. Trajectories of simple exponential growth function and logistic models are used to produce the forecast. The work presents the basics of Leslie type modelling and the logistic models, including multi- parameter logistic functions. The latter model is also analysed from model reliability point of view. Bayesian approach and MCMC method are used to create error bounds of the model predictions.

Nematode community, trophic structure and population fluctuation in soybean fields

Temporal (monthly in three fields for 12 months) and spatial (once in 23 fields during March-April) samplings were conducted in the major soybean (Glycine max)-growing region of the Brazilian Federal District. Fifty-three nematode genera were found in both samplings, but 13 were detected only by the temporal sampling, and one only by the spatial sampling. Fifty-three percent were plant-parasites, 35% were bacterivores, and about 12% were fungivores, predators and omnivores constituted the community that was dominated by the genera Helicotylenchus (40% of total abundance), Acrobeles (15%), Cephalobus (7.6%), Meloidogyne(5.6%) and Pratylenchus (4.9%). Heterodera glycines was not found in this study. There were no differences in ten ecological measurements [Ds, H', Es, T, FF/BF, (FF+BF)/PP, MI, PPI, mMI, and Dorylaimida (%)] between the two sampling types, but differences in indexes d and J'. Plant parasite populations dropped at the end of the crop cycle, remained at low levels during the dry season and the seedling period, then increased again in the crop-growing season. Fungivores maintained their low populations throughout the year, increasing only in June and July, the post-harvest period, when soil fungi decomposed root tissue. The population of bacterivores slightly declined during the dry season and the initial rainy season, but peaked in the middle of the rainy season, apparently associated with soil humidity. In the five most abundant nematodes, those of Acrobeles and Pratylenchus were more populous in wet soils, Cephalobus and Meloidogyne adapted well in dry soils, but Helicotylenchus survived abundantly in a wide range of soil moisture.

RAPD analysis of genetic variability in a multiprovenance base population of Eucalyptus grandis hill ex maiden

This study aimed to evaluate the genetic variability among individuals of a base population of Eucalyptus grandis and to build a molecular marker database for the analyzed populations. The Eucalyptus grandis base population comprised 327 individuals from Coff's Harbour, Atherton and Rio Claro. A few plants came from other sites (Belthorpe MT. Pandanus, Kenilworth, Yabbra, etc.). Since this base population had a heterogeneous composition, the groups were divided according to geographic localization (latitude and longitude), and genetic breeding level. Thus, the influence of those two factors (geographic localization and genetic breeding level) on the genetic variability detected was discussed. The RAPD technique allowed the evaluation of 70 loci. The binary matrix was used to estimate the genetic similarity among individuals using Jaccard's Coefficient. Parametric statistical tests were used to compare within-group similarity of the means. The obtained results showed that the base population had wide genetic variability and a mean genetic similarity of 0.328. Sub-group 3 (wild materials from the Atherton region) showed mean genetic similarity of 0.318. S.P.A. (from Coff's Harbour region) had a mean genetic similarity of 0.322 and was found to be very important for maintenance of variation in the base population. This can be explained since the individuals from those groups accounted for most of the base population (48.3% for it). The base population plants with genetic similarity higher than 0.60 should be phenotypically analyzed again in order to clarify the tendency of genetic variability during breeding programs.

Coffea arabica (cv Catuaí) production and bean size under different population arrangements and soil water availability

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of drip irrigation under different population arrangements on the phytometric features, coffee productivity and bean size classification according to sieve retention. The experiment with Coffea arabica L. cv Catuaí was carried out in Mococa, São Paulo, Brazil. The experimental design was a 6 x 2 factorial scheme in randomized blocks, with four replications. The six densities of plantation were E1 (1.60 x 0.50 m); E2 (1.60 x 0.75 m); E3 (1.60 x 1.00 m); E4 (3.20 x 0.50 m); E5 (3.20 x 0.75 m) and E6 (3.20 x 1.00 m), which were divided according to the availability of water (irrigated - I - or non-irrigated - NI - groups). Data were submitted to analysis of variance and averages compared by Tukey test at 1 and 5% of probability. Descriptive analysis of coffee beans according to sieve classification was performed. Irrigation promoted an increase in plant height, crown diameter and production of processed coffee when compared with the NI group. Interaction between population arrangement and irrigation was observed, with an increase in production and crown diameter as the spacing was decreased. Therefore, irrigation provided significant increase in coffee bean size.

Microsatellite-dense genetic map: towards genome coverage in a tropical maize (Zea mays L.) population

Dense molecular genetic maps are used for an efficient quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping and in the marker-assisted selection programs. A dense genetic map was generated with 139 microsatellite markers using 256 F2 plants generated by the crossing of two tropical maize inbred lines (L-02-03D and L-20-01F). This map presented 1,858.61 cM in length, where 10 linkage groups were found spanned, with an average interval of 13.47 cM between adjacent markers. Seventy seven percent of the maize genetic mapping bins were covered, which means an increase of 14% coverage in relation to the previous tropical maize maps. The results provide a more detailed and informative genetic map in a tropical maize population representing the first step to make possible the studies of genetic architecture to identify and map QTL and estimate their effects on the variation of quantitative traits, thus allowing the manipulation and use in tropical maize breeding programs.

Chromosome damage in underground coal miners: detection by conventional cytogenetic techniques and by submitting lymphocytes of unexposed individuals to plasma from at-risk groups

Chromosome abnormalities and the mitotic index in lymphocyte cultures and micronuclei in buccal mucosa cells were investigated in a sample of underground mineral coal miners from Southern Brazil. A decreased mitotic index, an excess of micronuclei and a higher frequency of chromosome abnormalities (fragments, polyploidy and overall chromosome alterations) were observed in the miners when compared to age-paired normal controls from the same area. An alternative assay for clastogenesis in occupational exposition was tested by submitting lymphocytes from non-exposed individuals to a pool of plasmas from the exposed population. This assay proved to be very convenient, as the lymphocytes obtained from the same individuals can be used as target as well as control cells. Also, it yielded a larger number of metaphases and of successful cultures than with common lymphocyte cultures from miners. A significantly higher frequency of chromatid gaps, fragments and overall alterations were observed when lymphocytes from control subjects were exposed to miner plasma pools. Control plasma pools did not significantly induce any type of chromosome alterations in the cultures of normal subjects, thus indicating that the results are not due to the effect of the addition of plasma pools per se.