Análisis de la política petrolera venezolana durante el gobierno de Hugo Chávez como factor determinante de la Revolución Bolivariana (período 1999-2012)

Desde 1999, la política petrolera se constituyó como base del proyecto político chavista conocido como la Revolución Bolivariana, e incluso se convirtió en el eje de la participación, polarización y de las relaciones entre los principales actores del oficialismo y de la oposición venezolana.

Política africana de China: una manifestación de la real economy de corte chino

Desde el año 2000 el idilio China-África está marcado principalmente por un foro de cooperación, mecanismo de diálogo y cooperación colectiva ideado por China. Sin embargo, destaca que esta relación ha evolucionado en función de los intereses estratégicos de los chinos. China se inserta en los circuitos económico-comerciales africanos de manera metódica y decidida. A diferencia de sus competidores (Estados Unidos, Unión Europea, Canadá, Japón, etc.), que actúan en África de manera preferencial, China invierte en todos los países africanos sin ninguna excepción, sin importar su régimen político, su situación económico-financiera o su ubicación geográfica. Sin embargo, la voracidad energética china se ha vuelto objeto de preocupación en el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas, sobre todo por su ofensiva por acaparar el mercado petrolero africano. Puede afirmarse que el actuar chino en África es una expresión de su pragmatismo económico-comercial, con efectos colaterales negativos para la integración y el desarrollo de África.-----Since 2000, the relationship between China and Africa is growing up because of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) which is a collective mechanism of dialogue and cooperation. Meanwhile, it’s important to mention that this relationship has increased regarding the Chinese strategic interests in Africa. China is getting inside the African economic and trade networks in a methodic and aggressive way. Differently from his competitors (USA, EU, Canada, Japan...) which only seem to use Africa, China invests in all the African countries without looking at their economical or financial situation, neither their geographical location. The energetical voracity of China has become a real issue at the United Nations Security Council, especially for the Chinese strike in the African petroleum market. For many reasons, we can affirm that the way China is acting in Africa is only the expression of its economical and trade pragmatism, which also has got negative results in the african development and integration process.

Cambios en la doctrina de seguridad del territorio estadounidense a partir de las nuevas tendencias del terrorismo internacional

Identificar las causas de los cambios en la doctrina de seguridad territorial de los Estados Unidos, se constituye en factor fundamental para generar políticas alternativas que permitan contrarrestar las nuevas tendencias del terrorismo internacional y resolver el problema planteado.

La relación entre los conceptos de relación estratégica comunitaria de las organizaciones con las comunidades y la responsabilidad social

Para maximizar los beneficios, una compañía fundamenta sus acciones en ciertas estrategias que ayudan a cumplir su objetivo de generar utilidades. Entre las diferentes acciones que una organización puede utilizar, están las de responsabilidad social y las de relaciones estratégicas con la comunidad. Partiendo de la definición de comunidad, pasando por una descripción de responsabilidad social y sus diferentes formas de aplicabilidad dentro de una empresa, hasta la definición de relación estratégica con la comunidad; esta investigación dirige sus esfuerzos a determinar el vínculo que existe entre los conceptos de responsabilidad social y relación estratégica comunitaria. Adicionalmente, se plantea que otras estrategias de relacionamiento con clientes, como el mercadeo relacional o el CRM, las cuales enfocan sus esfuerzos en conocer a cada uno de los clientes de una compañía para plantear una oferta acorde a sus necesidades, no son muy efectivas a la hora de crear un vínculo emocional con la comunidad.

La incidencia del Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán en el establecimiento de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en Asia Central 1991-2012

El interés del presente estudio de caso es analizar la estrategia de securitización implementada por el Presidente de la Republica de Uzbekistán Islam Karimov sobre el Movimiento Islámico de Uzbekistán. Se describe y se explica cómo desde las lógicas históricas y étnicas acontecidas en Asia Central, se pueden comprender los alcances internacionales de la confrontación antagónica ejercida entre uzbekos al apoyar ideas de corte secular e islamista. Así, siguiendo los parámetros establecidos por Barry Buzan con respecto a la securitización, se puede llegar a identificar la creación de una agenda de seguridad uzbeka en la región de Asia Central, cuyos logros permitieron disminuir el riesgo de la amenaza insurgente.

Intuición y matemáticas en el razonamiento y aprendizaje probabilístico.

Se estudia el proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje (E-A) de la toría de probabilidades en el nivel de bachillerato. El grupo experimental se compone de 75 estudiantes de primero de BUP y el de control de 61. Tiene una doble inspiración teórica: asume el planteamiento epistemológico de Lakatos (1981) sobre la naturaleza cuasi-empírica de las matemáticas; asume el enfoque del cambio conceptual para el proceso de E-A tal como lo formulan Posner, Strike, Hewson y Gertzog (1982). Primero se analizan y categorizan las ideas que tienen los-as estudiantes de enseñanza secundaria sobre el azar y la probabilidad y después se diseña y experimenta una metodología de E-A de la teoría de probabilidades eficaz que tenga en cuenta las ideas y alternativas de los-as estudiantes. Test de Lougeot y cuestionarios. Diseño pretest-postest. Entre las variables independientes hay una manipulada que es el método de enseñanza con dos niveles: cambio conceptual y expositivo tradicional, y dos no manipuladas: el desrrollo cognitivo de los sujetos y el rendimiento en matemáticas. Las variables dependientes son: rendimiento en cálculo probabilístico, rendimiento en razonamiento probabilístico, actitud hacia las matemáticas y nivel de cambio conceptual. Se observa que esta estrategia didáctica supera significativamente a una estrategia tradicional de enseñanza en realción a tres variables: elrazonamiento sobre el azar, las destrezas de cálculo probabilístico y el nivel de cambio conceptual conseguido. No se encuentran diferencias significativas en el nivel de cambio actitudinal conseguido por ambas estrategias didácticas.

A Participação da Marinha Grande no 18 de Janeiro de 1934

Portugal viveu um dos períodos mais sombrios da sua História no Século XX, com o regime autoritário liderado por António de Oliveira Salazar, que governou o país com «mão de ferro» durante mais de três décadas, concretamente entre 1933 e 1968, uma vez que se considera que há alteração de regime sempre que muda o referencial e a Constituição do Estado Novo é de 1933. Para além da ausência de democracia e liberdade, o povo português conviveu com a fome e a ignorância durante décadas, foi perseguido e torturado nas prisões continentais e ultramarinas, nomeadamente no Tarrafal, que se localiza no arquipélago de Cabo Verde. Em 18 de janeiro de 1934, o movimento operário português saiu à rua em várias cidades e vilas de Portugal, entre as quais a Marinha Grande. Na origem do movimento revolucionário esteve a decisão do Presidente do Conselho, através da Constituição de 1933, de impedir o funcionamento de sindicatos livres. Contudo, aquela que se previa ser unicamente uma greve geral contra a decisão do regime acabou por ir mais além, sobretudo na cidade vidreira, onde o quartel da GNR foi tomado, tal como a estação dos Correios, existindo ainda hoje dúvidas sobre a constituição de um soviete. Mais de sete décadas após o ato insurrecional continua muito por esclarecer. Esta Dissertação visa, precisamente, obter respostas a questões tão diversas como quem esteve realmente por detrás do 18 de janeiro de 1934 na Marinha Grande, que consequências teve para a política do Estado Novo e, finalmente, que importância teve na conjuntura. Importa ainda esclarecer por que razão esta derrota do movimento operário português é hoje recordada, com pompa e circunstância, na Marinha Grande, como se tivesse sido uma vitória. De facto, na atualidade, fala-se de uma jornada heroica, mas o Partido Comunista Português praticamente ignorou esse movimento até abril de 1974 e o seu líder à época, Bento Gonçalves (1971, p. 138), apelidou-o de “anarqueirada”.

Ecuador y Colombia. Caso de estudio “Conflicto Angostura 2008-2011” y la ruptura de la paz democrática ante la amenaza a la seguridad

La relación entre Ecuador y Colombia se ha visto afectada por su frontera conjunta, donde la inseguridad nacional y la desconfianza mutua han creado un ambiente de tensión política y diplomática entre ambos Estados. Entre el 2008 y el 2011 se experimentaron diversas crisis fronterizas producto de las políticas de seguridad implementadas por Colombia para el combate a la narcoguerrilla. Así, las constantes intervenciones militares y los episodios de transgresión fronteriza, producto de la política de seguridad preventiva de mano dura, llegaron a su punto más álgido con el bombardeo colombiano a un campamento de las FARC en Angostura-Ecuador. Así, el incidente de Angostura, como resultado del uso de una “preemptive strike doctrine”, marcó la historia de ambas naciones al provocar el más duro quiebre de las relaciones bilaterales, que se tradujo en la alerta máxima de seguridad nacional para el Ecuador y un llamado de atención a la región sobre sus mecanismos de seguridad y lógicas de la geopolítica reinante. Este trabajo pretende analizar los factores que caracterizaron las relaciones bilaterales entre Ecuador y Colombia de 2008 al 2011 en el marco de las tensiones binacionales fronterizas y el ataque armado colombiano en la zona de Angostura (Ecuador), bajo el enfoque teórico del realismo y el uso de la metodología de estudio de caso. Se pretende evidenciar la manera en como la respuesta ecuatoriana a la crisis se orienta por lógicas realistas de las relaciones internacionales. Para ello, se han destacado tres momentos que marcan la secuencia de la investigación empírica de esta tesis: primero se inicia con una retrospectiva de las relaciones bilaterales colombo-ecuatorianas con un enfoque histórico de carácter general; segundo, una exposición de los antecedentes del bombardeo que demuestran los altibajos bilaterales que fueron marcando distancias. Finalmente, una descripción del ataque y sus alcances en el campo diplomático, militar y geopolítico, que introdujeron una nueva visión sobre la política de seguridad regional.

How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances? CEPS Special Report No. 69, 23 November 2012

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the northern countries of the euro area towards the southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressure. At this point the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

The unpatriotism of the economic constitution? Rights to free movement and their impact on national and European identity

Abstract: Instead of the political reading of the EU Constitution adopted by advocates of constitutional patriotism, this article examines the European economic constitution. The four single market freedoms can be used by the Court of Justice to strike down Member State laws which represent deeply held aspects of national cultural identity. The article examines whether the court does in fact act in this way and proceeds to argue that the issue of identity protection does not stop with the court. In those policy areas where the court is more interventionist, and its case-law is perceived as an identity threat, one is likely to find binding Treaty-based derogations. Where, in contrast, the effect of the court's case-law poses less of a threat, one is more likely to see non-binding declarations. The article examines a number of policy areas in which specific cultural derogations and declarations are to be found, including abortion, property acquisition, football and alcohol control.

Resource allocation analysis of the stochastic diffusion search

The Stochastic Diffusion Search (SDS) was developed as a solution to the best-fit search problem. Thus, as a special case it is capable of solving the transform invariant pattern recognition problem. SDS is efficient and, although inherently probabilistic, produces very reliable solutions in widely ranging search conditions. However, to date a systematic formal investigation of its properties has not been carried out. This thesis addresses this problem. The thesis reports results pertaining to the global convergence of SDS as well as characterising its time complexity. However, the main emphasis of the work, reports on the resource allocation aspect of the Stochastic Diffusion Search operations. The thesis introduces a novel model of the algorithm, generalising an Ehrenfest Urn Model from statistical physics. This approach makes it possible to obtain a thorough characterisation of the response of the algorithm in terms of the parameters describing the search conditions in case of a unique best-fit pattern in the search space. This model is further generalised in order to account for different search conditions: two solutions in the search space and search for a unique solution in a noisy search space. Also an approximate solution in the case of two alternative solutions is proposed and compared with predictions of the extended Ehrenfest Urn model. The analysis performed enabled a quantitative characterisation of the Stochastic Diffusion Search in terms of exploration and exploitation of the search space. It appeared that SDS is biased towards the latter mode of operation. This novel perspective on the Stochastic Diffusion Search lead to an investigation of extensions of the standard SDS, which would strike a different balance between these two modes of search space processing. Thus, two novel algorithms were derived from the standard Stochastic Diffusion Search, ‘context-free’ and ‘context-sensitive’ SDS, and their properties were analysed with respect to resource allocation. It appeared that they shared some of the desired features of their predecessor but also possessed some properties not present in the classic SDS. The theory developed in the thesis was illustrated throughout with carefully chosen simulations of a best-fit search for a string pattern, a simple but representative domain, enabling careful control of search conditions.

Post War land reform and the impact on planning in Japan

One feature of Japanese urban areas in the 21st century that is bound to strike any Western visitor is the extensive spread of its suburbs with their varied mixing of land-uses. It is almost impossible to pinpoint precisely where the city begins and where it ends. During the post-War period, this characteristic pattern of land-use sprawled over the countryside, seemingly unimpeded by planning restrictions. The number of studies that highlight the problems of Japanese planning outweighs the research that explores its underlying causes. This paper aims to partly redress this imbalance by describing a case study of the failed implementation of the green belt around Tokyo and to link this with the Allied Occupation’s postwar land reforms and drafting of a new constitution in the period 1946-1951. Overall, we aim to highlight how the ostensible benefits and aims of a land reform programme can entail substantial disbenefits or unforeseen outcomes in terms of land-use planning..

On the relationship between decadal buoyancy anomalies and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales.DecadalAMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability.

Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

Predictability of frontal waves and cyclones

The statistical properties and skill in predictions of objectively identified and tracked cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) are examined in MOGREPS-15, the global 15-day version of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS). The number density of cyclonic features is found to decline with increasing lead-time, with analysis fields containing weak features which are not sustained past the first day of the forecast. This loss of cyclonic features is associated with a decline in area averaged enstrophy with increasing lead time. Both feature number density and area averaged enstrophy saturate by around 7 days into the forecast. It is found that the feature number density and area averaged enstrophy of forecasts produced using model versions that include stochastic energy backscatter saturate at higher values than forecasts produced without stochastic physics. The ability of MOGREPS-15 to predict the locations of cyclonic features of different strengths is evaluated at different spatial scales by examining the Brier Skill (relative to the analysis climatology) of strike probability forecasts: the probability that a cyclonic feature center is located within a specified radius. The radius at which skill is maximised increases with lead time from 650km at 12h to 950km at 7 days. The skill is greatest for the most intense features. Forecast skill remains above zero at these scales out to 14 days for the most intense cyclonic features, but only out to 8 days when all features are included irrespective of intensity.