ECOLOGICAL CONTROL OF BIRD HAZARD TO AIRCRAFT

The Canadian Wildlife Service has had twenty-five years experience with the problem caused by bird contacts with aircraft. I experienced my first bird strike, while flying as an observer on a waterfowl survey in August, 1940. Officers of the Service investigated bird problems at airports at Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, and Cartierville, Quebec, in the late 1940's. Those incidents involving gulls and low speed piston-engined aircraft caused minor damage to the aircraft but considerable disturbance to the operators. As aircraft speeds increased and airports became more numerous and busier the problem increased in extent and complexity. By 1960 it was apparent that the problem would grow worse and that work should be directed toward reducing the number of incidents. In 1960 an electra aircraft crashed at Boston, Massachusetts, killing 61 passengers. Starlings were involved in the engine malfunction which preceded the crash. In November, 1962 a viscount aircraft was damaged by collision with two swans between Baltimore and Washington and crashed with a loss of 17 lives. Those incidents focused attention on the bird hazard problem in the United States.

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

New systematic assignments in Gonyleptoidea (Arachnida, Opiliones, Laniatores)

As part of an ongoing revision of the family Gonyleptidac, we have identified many species that are synonyms of previously described species or misplaced in this family. This article summarizes these findings, adding previously unavailable information or correcting imprecise observations to justify the presented taxonomic changes. The following new familial or subfamilial assignments are proposed: Nemastygnus Roewer, 1929 and Taulisa Roewer, 1956 are transferred to Agoristenidae, Agoristeninae; Napostygnus Roewer, 1929 to Cranaidae; Ceropachylinus peruvianus Roewer, 1956 and Pirunipygus Roewer, 1936 are transferred to Gonyleptidae, Ampycinae; Gyndesops Roewer, 1943, Haversia Roewer, 1913 and Oxapampeus Roewer, 1963 are transferred to Gonyleptidae, Pachylinae. The following generic synonymies are proposed for the family Gonyleptidae: Acanthogonyleptes Mello-Leitao, 1922 = Centroleptes Roewer, 1943; Acrographinotus Roewer, 1929 = Unduavius Roewer, 1929; Gonyleptes Kirby, 1819 = Collonychium Bertkau, 1880; Mischonyx Bertkau, 1880 = Eugonyleptes Roewer, 1913 and Gonazula Roewer, 1930; Parampheres Roewer, 1913 = Metapachyloides Roewer, 1917; Pseudopucrolia Roewer, 19 12 = Meteusarcus Roewer, 1913; Haversia Roewer, 19 13 = Hoggellula Roewer, 1930. The following specific synonymies are proposed for the family Gonyleptidae: Acanthogonyleptes singularis (Mello-Leitao, 1935) = Centroleptes flavus Roewer, 1943, syn. n.; Geraeocormobius sylvarum Holmberg, 1887 = Discocyrtus serrifemur Roewer, 1943, syn. n.; Gonyleptellus bimaculatus (Sorensen, 1884) = Gonyleptes cancellatus Roewer, 1917, syn. n.; Gonyleptes atrus Mello-Leitao, 1923 = Weyhia brieni Giltay, 1928, syn. n.; Gonyleptes fragilis Mello-Leitao, 1923 = Gonyleptes banana Kury, 2003, syn. n.; Gonyleptes horridus Kirby, 1819 = Collonychium bicuspidatum Bertkau, 1880, syn. n., Gonyleptes borgmeyeri Mello-Leitao, 1932, syn. n., Gonyleptes curvicornis Mello-Leitao, 1932, syn. n., Metagonyleptes hamatus Roewer, 1913, syn. n. and Paragonyleptes simoni Roewer, 1930, syn. n.; Gonyleptes pustulatus Sorensen, 1884 = Gonyleptes guttatus Roewer, 1917, syn. n.; Haversia defensa (Butler, 1876) = Sadocus vallentini Hogg, 1913, syn. n.; Liogonyleptoides minensis (Piza, 1946) = Currala bahiensis Soares, 1972, syn. n.; Megapachylus grandis Roewer, 1913 = Metapachyloides almeidai Soares & Soares, 1946, syn. n.; Mischonyx cuspidatus (Roewer, 1913) = Gonazula gibbosa Roewer, 1930 syn. n.; Mischonyx scaber (Kirby, 1819) = Xundarava holacantha Mello-Leitao, 1927, syn. n.; Parampheres tibialis Roewer, 1917 = Metapachyloides rugosus Roewer, 1917, syn. n.; Parapachyloides uncinatus (Sorensen, 1879) = Goyazella armata Mello-Leitao, 1931, syn. n.; Pseudopucrolia mutica (Perry, 1833) = Meteusarcus armatus Roewer, 1913, syn. n. The following new combinations are proposed: Acrographinotus ornatus (Roewer, 1929), comb. n. (ex Unduavius); Gonyleptellus bimaculatus (Sorensen, 1884), comb. n. (ex Gonyleptes); Gonyleptes perlatus (Mello-Leitao, 1935), comb. n. (ex Moojenia); Mischonyx scaber (Kirby, 1819), comb. n. (ex Gonyleptes); and Neopachyloides peruvianus (Roewer, 1956), comb. n. (ex Ceropachylus). The following species of Gonyleptidae, Gonyleptinae are revalidated: Gonyleptes atrus Mello-Leitao, 1923 and Gonyleptes curvicornis (Roewer, 1913).

INFERENCES FOR THE CHANGE-POINT OF THE EXPONENTIATED WEIBULL HAZARD FUNCTION

In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the change-point of the hazard function. The change-point could be a maximum for unimodal hazard functions or a minimum for bathtub forms of hazard functions and is usually of great interest in medical or industrial applications. For lifetime distributions where this change-point of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can also be obtained. Considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution for the lifetime data, we have different forms for the hazard function: constant, increasing, unimodal, decreasing or bathtub forms. This model gives great flexibility of fit, but we do not have analytic expressions for the change-point of the hazard function. In this way, we consider the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to get posterior summaries for the change-point of the hazard function considering the exponentiated Weibull distribution.

Rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART): Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high in-hospital mortality. Alveolar recruitment followed by ventilation at optimal titrated PEEP may reduce ventilator-induced lung injury and improve oxygenation in patients with ARDS, but the effects on mortality and other clinical outcomes remain unknown. This article reports the rationale, study design, and analysis plan of the Alveolar Recruitment for ARDS Trial (ART). Methods/Design: ART is a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized (concealed), controlled trial, which aims to determine if maximum stepwise alveolar recruitment associated with PEEP titration is able to increase 28-day survival in patients with ARDS compared to conventional treatment (ARDSNet strategy). We will enroll adult patients with ARDS of less than 72 h duration. The intervention group will receive an alveolar recruitment maneuver, with stepwise increases of PEEP achieving 45 cmH(2)O and peak pressure of 60 cmH2O, followed by ventilation with optimal PEEP titrated according to the static compliance of the respiratory system. In the control group, mechanical ventilation will follow a conventional protocol (ARDSNet). In both groups, we will use controlled volume mode with low tidal volumes (4 to 6 mL/kg of predicted body weight) and targeting plateau pressure <= 30 cmH2O. The primary outcome is 28-day survival, and the secondary outcomes are: length of ICU stay; length of hospital stay; pneumothorax requiring chest tube during first 7 days; barotrauma during first 7 days; mechanical ventilation-free days from days 1 to 28; ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month survival. ART is an event-guided trial planned to last until 520 events (deaths within 28 days) are observed. These events allow detection of a hazard ratio of 0.75, with 90% power and two-tailed type I error of 5%. All analysis will follow the intention-to-treat principle. Discussion: If the ART strategy with maximum recruitment and PEEP titration improves 28-day survival, this will represent a notable advance to the care of ARDS patients. Conversely, if the ART strategy is similar or inferior to the current evidence-based strategy (ARDSNet), this should also change current practice as many institutions routinely employ recruitment maneuvers and set PEEP levels according to some titration method.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Simultaneous bilateral hip replacement reveals superior outcome and fewer complications than two-stage procedures: a prospective study including 1819 patients and 5801 follow-ups from a total joint replacement registry

Background Total joint replacements represent a considerable part of day-to-day orthopaedic routine and a substantial proportion of patients undergoing unilateral total hip arthroplasty require a contralateral treatment after the first operation. This report compares complications and functional outcome of simultaneous versus early and delayed two-stage bilateral THA over a five-year follow-up period. Methods The study is a post hoc analysis of prospectively collected data in the framework of the European IDES hip registry. The database query resulted in 1819 patients with 5801 follow-ups treated with bilateral THA between 1965 and 2002. According to the timing of the two operations the sample was divided into three groups: I) 247 patients with simultaneous bilateral THA, II) 737 patients with two-stage bilateral THA within six months, III) 835 patients with two-stage bilateral THA between six months and five years. Results Whereas postoperative hip pain and flexion did not differ between the groups, the best walking capacity was observed in group I and the worst in group III. The rate of intraoperative complications in the first group was comparable to that of the second. The frequency of postoperative local and systemic complication in group I was the lowest of the three groups. The highest rate of complications was observed in group III. Conclusions From the point of view of possible intra- and postoperative complications, one-stage bilateral THA is equally safe or safer than two-stage interventions. Additionally, from an outcome perspective the one-stage procedure can be considered to be advantageous.