Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Morphological changes of the jejunal mucosa in protracted diarrhea and their correlation with disease duration, weight loss and serum albumin levels

The pathogenesis of protracted diarrhea is multifactorial. In developing countries, intestinal infectious processes seem to play an important role in triggering the syndrome. Thirty-four children aged 1 to 14 months, mean 6.5 months, with protracted diarrhea were studied clinically and in terms of small intestinal mucosal morphology. Mild, moderate or severe hypotrophy of the jejunal mucosa was detected in 82% of cases, and mucosal atrophy was observed in 12%. The intensity of the morphological changes of the jejunal mucosa correlated negatively with serum albumin levels. No correlation was detected between mucosal grading and duration of diarrhea or between mucosal grading and weight reported as percentile. After nutritional support was instituted, serial jejunal biopsies were obtained from 12 patients: five patients submitted to parenteral nutrition for 7 to 38 days, mean 17 days, and 7 patients receiving a hypoallergenic oral diet (semi-elemental formula, 3; chicken formula, 3; human milk, 1). In seven cases (58%) a progressive increase in villus height and a decrease in the number of inflammatory cells were noted. Recovery of the morphologic pattern was accompanied by clinical improvement in all patients

Short duration of neutralizing antibody titers after pre-exposure rabies vaccination with suckling mouse brain vaccine

The human anti-rabies pre-exposure treatment currently used in Brazil, employing a 1-ml dose of suckling mouse brain vaccine (SMBV) administered on days 0, 2, 4 and 28, was compared to an alternative treatment with two 1 ml-doses on day 0, and one 1 ml-dose injected on days 7 and 21. The latter induced higher virus-neutralizing antibody (VNA) titers on day 21. Both Brazilian rabies vaccines produced with PV or CVS rabies virus strains were tested. Two additional volunteer vaccinee groups, receiving the pre-exposure and the abbreviated post-exposure schedules recommended by the WHO using cell-culture vaccine (CCV) produced with PM rabies virus strain, were included as reference. The VNA were measured against both PV and CVS strains on days 21, 42 and 180 by the cell-culture neutralization microtest. The PV-SMBV elicited higher seroconversion rates and VNA by day 21 than the CVS-SMBV. Both, however, failed to induce a long-term immunity, since VNA titers were <0.5 IU/ml on day 180, regardless of the schedule used. Cell-culture vaccine always elicited very high VNA on all days of collection. When serum samples from people receiving mouse brain tissue were titrated against the PV and CVS strains, the VNA obtained were similar, regardless of the vaccinal strain and the virus used in the neutralization test. These results contrast with those obtained with sera from people receiving PM-CCV, whose VNA were significantly higher when tested against the CVS strain.

Duration-controlled swimming exercise training induces cardiac hypertrophy in mice

Exercise training associated with robust conditioning can be useful for the study of molecular mechanisms underlying exercise-induced cardiac hypertrophy. A swimming apparatus is described to control training regimens in terms of duration, load, and frequency of exercise. Mice were submitted to 60- vs 90-min session/day, once vs twice a day, with 2 or 4% of the weight of the mouse or no workload attached to the tail, for 4 vs 6 weeks of exercise training. Blood pressure was unchanged in all groups while resting heart rate decreased in the trained groups (8-18%). Skeletal muscle citrate synthase activity, measured spectrophotometrically, increased (45-58%) only as a result of duration and frequency-controlled exercise training, indicating that endurance conditioning was obtained. In groups which received duration and endurance conditioning, cardiac weight (14-25%) and myocyte dimension (13-20%) increased. The best conditioning protocol to promote physiological hypertrophy, our primary goal in the present study, was 90 min, twice a day, 5 days a week for 4 weeks with no overload attached to the body. Thus, duration- and frequency-controlled exercise training in mice induces a significant conditioning response qualitatively similar to that observed in humans.

Relationship between the prevalence of anti-glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies and duration of type 1 diabetes mellitus in Brazilian patients

The objective of the present study was to determine whether the duration of disease has any influence on the prevalence of glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) in Brazilian patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and variable disease duration. We evaluated 83 patients with T1D. All participants were interviewed and blood was obtained for GADA measurement by a commercial radioimmunoassay (RSR Limited, Cardiff, UK). Four groups of patients were established according to disease duration: A) 1-5 years of disease (N = 24), B) 6-10 years of disease (N = 19), C) 11-15 years of disease (N = 25), and D) >15 years of disease (N = 15). GADA prevalence and its titers were determined in each group. GADA was positive in 38 patients (45.8%) and its frequency did not differ between the groups. The prevalence was 11/24 (45.8%), 8/19 (42.1%), 13/25 (52%), and 6/15 (40%) in groups A, B, C, and D, respectively (P = 0.874). Mean GADA titer was 12.54 ± 11.33 U/ml for the sample as a whole and 11.95 ± 11.8, 12.85 ± 12.07, 10.57 ± 8.35, and 17.45 ± 16.1 U/ml for groups A, B, C, and D, respectively (P = 0.686). Sex, age at diagnosis or ethnic background had no significant effect on GADA (+) frequency. In conclusion, in this transversal study, duration of disease did not affect significantly the prevalence of GADA or its titers in patients with T1D after one year of diagnosis. This was the first study to report this finding in the Brazilian population.

Use of the Wasserman equation in optimization of the duration of the power ramp in a cardiopulmonary exercise test: a study of Brazilian men

This study aimed to analyze the agreement between measurements of unloaded oxygen uptake and peak oxygen uptake based on equations proposed by Wasserman and on real measurements directly obtained with the ergospirometry system. We performed an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), which was applied to two groups of sedentary male subjects: one apparently healthy group (HG, n=12) and the other had stable coronary artery disease (n=16). The mean age in the HG was 47±4 years and that in the coronary artery disease group (CG) was 57±8 years. Both groups performed CPET on a cycle ergometer with a ramp-type protocol at an intensity that was calculated according to the Wasserman equation. In the HG, there was no significant difference between measurements predicted by the formula and real measurements obtained in CPET in the unloaded condition. However, at peak effort, a significant difference was observed between oxygen uptake (V˙O2)peak(predicted)and V˙O2peak(real)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). In the CG, there was a significant difference of 116.26 mL/min between the predicted values by the formula and the real values obtained in the unloaded condition. A significant difference in peak effort was found, where V˙O2peak(real)was 40% lower than V˙O2peak(predicted)(nonparametric Wilcoxon test). There was no agreement between the real and predicted measurements as analyzed by Lin’s coefficient or the Bland and Altman model. The Wasserman formula does not appear to be appropriate for prediction of functional capacity of volunteers. Therefore, this formula cannot precisely predict the increase in power in incremental CPET on a cycle ergometer.

The effect of feeding regime on larval black fly (Diptera: simuliidae) primary head fan ray number

Identification of larval simuliids has always been difficult due to the morphological similarity many species bear to one another. For this reason all characters available have been drawn upon to aid in species identification, including head fan ray number. Even in light of an increasing body of anecdotal reports that head fan ray number is not fixed, it has continued to be used to aid species identification. In the current experiment simuliid larvae were reared under controlled laboratory conditions to last instar in one of three feeding regimes. Out of nine trials, the results of six showed a significant inverse relationship between feeding regime and head fan ray number. In addition to the laboratory experiments, larvae were also collected from the field over the course of the spring and summer, 1994. From these samples significant interspecific and intraspecific variations in head fan ray number were found both spatially and temporally within Algonquin Park. From these data it is concluded that head fan ray number for the species analysed is a developmentally plastic character, which varies in response to food availability. Furthermore, given the extreme variations in head fan ray number found in some species, I recommend that head fan ray number not be used as an aid to identification unless it can be shown to be a fixed character for the species in question.

Determinants of bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms

The present thesis examines the determinants of the bankruptcy protection duration for Canadian firms. Using a sample of Canadian firms that filed for bankruptcy protection between the calendar years 1992 and 2009, we fmd that the firm age, the industry adjusted operating margin, the default spread, the industrial production growth rate or the interest rate are influential factors on determining the length of the protection period. Older firms tend to stay longer under protection from creditors. As older firms have more complicated structures and issues to settle, the risk of exiting soon the protection (the hazard rate) is small. We also find that firms that perform better than their benchmark as measured by the industry they belong to, tend to leave quickly the bankruptcy protection state. We conclude that the fate of relatively successful companies is determined faster. Moreover, we report that it takes less time to achieve a final solution to firms under bankrupt~y when the default spread is low or when the appetite for risk is high. Conversely, during periods of high default spreads and flight for quality, it takes longer time to resolve the bankruptcy issue. This last finding may suggest that troubled firms should place themselves under protection when spreads are low. However, this ignores the endogeneity issue: high default spread may cause and incidentally reflect higher bankruptcy rates in the economy. Indeed, we find that bankruptcy protection is longer during economic downturns. We explain this relation by the natural increase in default rate among firms (and individuals) during economically troubled times. Default spreads are usually larger during these harsh periods as investors become more risk averse since their wealth shrinks. Using a Log-logistic hazard model, we also fmd that firms that file under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) protection spend longer time restructuring than firms that filed under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (BIA). As BIA is more statutory and less flexible, solutions can be reached faster by court orders.

Larval habitat associations with human land uses, roads, rivers, and land cover for Anopheles albimanus, A. pseudopunctipennis, and A. punctimacula (Diptera: Culicidae) in coastal and highland Ecuador

Larval habitat for three highland Anopheles species: Anopheles albimanus Wiedemann, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis Theobald, and Anopheles punctimacula Dyar and Knab was related to human land uses, rivers, roads, and remotely sensed land cover classifications in the western Ecuadorian Andes. Of the five commonly observed human land uses, cattle pasture (n = 30) provided potentially suitable habitat for A. punctimacula and A. albimanus in less than 14% of sites, and was related in a principal components analysis (PCA) to the presence of macrophyte vegetation, greater surface area, clarity, and algae cover. Empty lots (n = 30) were related in the PCA to incident sunlight and provided potential habitat for A. pseudopunctipennis and A. albimanus in less than 14% of sites. The other land uses surveyed (banana, sugarcane, and mixed tree plantations; n = 28, 21, 25, respectively) provided very little standing water that could potentially be used for larval habitat. River edges and eddies (n = 41) were associated with greater clarity, depth, temperature, and algae cover, which provide potentially suitable habitat for A. albimanus in 58% of sites and A. pseudopunctipennis in 29% of sites. Road-associated water bodies (n = 38) provided potential habitat for A. punctimacula in 44% of sites and A. albimanus in 26% of sites surveyed. Species collection localities were compared to land cover classifications using Geographic Information Systems software. All three mosquito species were associated more often with the category “closed/open broadleaved evergreen and/or semi-deciduous forests” than expected (P ≤ 0.01 in all cases), given such a habitat’s abundance. This study provides evidence that specific human land uses create habitat for potential malaria vectors in highland regions of the Andes.

Action of octopamine and tyramine on muscles of Drosophila melanogaster larvae

Octopamine (OA) and tyramine (TA) play important roles in homeostatic mechanisms, behavior, and modulation of neuromuscular junctions in arthropods. However, direct actions of these amines on muscle force production that are distinct from effects at the neuromuscular synapse have not been well studied. We utilize the technical benefits of the Drosophila larval preparation to distinguish the effects of OA and TA on the neuromuscular synapse from their effects on contractility of muscle cells. In contrast to the slight and often insignificant effects of TA, the action of OA was profound across all metrics assessed. We demonstrate that exogenous OA application decreases the input resistance of larval muscle fibers, increases the amplitude of excitatory junction potentials (EJPs), augments contraction force and duration, and at higher concentrations (10−5 and 10−4 M) affects muscle cells 12 and 13 more than muscle cells 6 and 7. Similarly, OA increases the force of synaptically driven contractions in a cell-specific manner. Moreover, such augmentation of contractile force persisted during direct muscle depolarization concurrent with synaptic block. OA elicited an even more profound effect on basal tonus. Application of 10−5 M OA increased synaptically driven contractions by ∼1.1 mN but gave rise to a 28-mN increase in basal tonus in the absence of synaptic activation. Augmentation of basal tonus exceeded any physiological stimulation paradigm and can potentially be explained by changes in intramuscular protein mechanics. Thus we provide evidence for independent but complementary effects of OA on chemical synapses and muscle contractility.

The action of octopamine on muscles of Drosophila melanogaster larvae

Octopamine (OA) and tyramine (TA) play important roles in homeostatic mechanisms, behavior, and modulation of neuromuscular junctions in arthropods. However, direct actions of these amines on muscle force production that are distinct from effects at the neuromuscular synapse have not been well studied. We utilize the technical benefits of the Drosophila larval preparation to distinguish the effects of OA and TA on the neuromuscular synapse from their effects on contractility of muscle cells. In contrast to the slight and often insignificant effects of TA, the action of OA was profound across all metrics assessed. We demonstrate that exogenous OA application decreases the input resistance of larval muscle fibers, increases the amplitude of excitatory junction potentials (EJPs), augments contraction force and duration, and at higher concentrations (10(-5) and 10(-4) M) affects muscle cells 12 and 13 more than muscle cells 6 and 7. Similarly, OA increases the force of synaptically driven contractions in a cell-specific manner. Moreover, such augmentation of contractile force persisted during direct muscle depolarization concurrent with synaptic block. OA elicited an even more profound effect on basal tonus. Application of 10(-5) M OA increased synaptically driven contractions by ≈ 1.1 mN but gave rise to a 28-mN increase in basal tonus in the absence of synaptic activation. Augmentation of basal tonus exceeded any physiological stimulation paradigm and can potentially be explained by changes in intramuscular protein mechanics. Thus we provide evidence for independent but complementary effects of OA on chemical synapses and muscle contractility.

Evaluación de dietas y sus efectos en el desarrollo larval de Anopheles pseudopunctipennis Theobald (Diptera: culicidae) en condiciones de laboratorio

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias con Especialidad en Entomología Médica) UANL

Evaluación en campo del depredador Mesocyclops longisetus (Thiebaud) (Copepoda: Cyclopoidea) para el control larval del vector del dengue Aedes aegypti (L.) en Monterrey, Nuevo León [por] Norma Gorrochotegui Escalante

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias con Especialidad en Entomología Médica) U.A.N.L.

Extraction of Glucan from Acremonium Diospyri and Its Application in Macrobrachium Rosenbergii Larval Rearing System Along With Bacterians as Microspheres

Present work is aimed at development of an appropriate microbial technology for protection of larvae of macrobrachium rosenbergii from disease and to increase survival rate in hatcheries. Application of immunostimulants to activate the immune system of cultured animals against pathogen is the widely accepted alternative to antibiotics in aquaculture. The most important immunostimulant is glucan. Therefore a research programme entitled as extraction of glucan from Acremonium diospyri and its application in macrobrachium rosenbergii larval rearing system along with bacterians as microspheres. The main objectives of the study are development of aquaculture grade glucan from acremonium diospyri, microencapsulated drug delivery system for the larvae of M. rosenbergii and microencapsulated glucan with bacterian preparation for the enhanced production of M. rosenbergii in larval rearing system. Based on the results of field trials microencapsulated glucan with bacterin preparation, it is concluded that the microencapsulated preparation at a concentration of 25g per million larvae once in seven days will enhance the production and quality seed of M. rosenbergii.