Constructing internationally comparable real income aggregates by combining sparse benchmark data with annual national accounts data: A state-space approach

The importance of availability of comparable real income aggregates and their components to applied economic research is highlighted by the popularity of the Penn World Tables. Any methodology designed to achieve such a task requires the combination of data from several sources. The first is purchasing power parities (PPP) data available from the International Comparisons Project roughly every five years since the 1970s. The second is national level data on a range of variables that explain the behaviour of the ratio of PPP to market exchange rates. The final source of data is the national accounts publications of different countries which include estimates of gross domestic product and various price deflators. In this paper we present a method to construct a consistent panel of comparable real incomes by specifying the problem in state-space form. We present our completed work as well as briefly indicate our work in progress.

Dissecting query performance in logical data models: Parsimony vs. greater ontological clarity

Even when data repositories exhibit near perfect data quality, users may formulate queries that do not correspond to the information requested. Users’ poor information retrieval performance may arise from either problems understanding of the data models that represent the real world systems, or their query skills. This research focuses on users’ understanding of the data structures, i.e., their ability to map the information request and the data model. The Bunge-Wand-Weber ontology was used to formulate three sets of hypotheses. Two laboratory experiments (one using a small data model and one using a larger data model) tested the effect of ontological clarity on users’ performance when undertaking component, record, and aggregate level tasks. The results indicate for the hypotheses associated with different representations but equivalent semantics that parsimonious data model participants performed better for component level tasks but that ontologically clearer data model participants performed better for record and aggregate level tasks.

O DESEMPENHO DAS EMPRESAS DO GRANDE ABC DE 2001 A 2008

Essa pesquisa investiga empiricamente o desempenho das empresas do Grande ABC, região industrializada e cada vez mais representativa economicamente para o país. As sete cidades que representam a região, Santo André, São Bernardo do Campo, São Caetano do Sul, Diadema, Mauá, Ribeirão Pires e Rio Grande da Serra, tiverem nos últimos anos um crescimento econômico consideravelmente acima do crescimento do país e seu desenvolvimento tem impulsionado o crescimento do país. A análise empírica utiliza dados em painel e investiga o desempenho das firmas das sete cidades que compõe o Grande ABC durante os anos de 2001 a 2008 utilizando a metodologia multinível e três medidas de desempenho: ROA, OROA e ROE. A metodologia multinível possibilitou a identificação dos principais efeitos que estão associados ou não ao desempenho das empresas, entre esses efeitos estão o ano, a própria empresa, o subsetor, o setor e a cidade que a empresa se localiza. Entre as três medidas de desempenho utilizadas houve significativa convergência e, além disso, o estudo identificou que há um significativo efeito no desempenho das empresas associado ao ano e à própria empresa, além de mostrar que os setores, os subsetores e a cidade que a empresa se localiza não apresentam um efeito significativo associado ao desempenho dessas firmas.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

The determinants of firms' performance:can finance constraints improve technical efficiency?

This paper analyses the mechanisms through which binding finance constraints can induce debt-constrained firms to improve technical efficiency to guarantee positive profits. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of firms belonging to the Italian manufacturing. Technical efficiency scores are computed by estimating parametric production frontiers using the one stage approach as in Battese and Coelli [Battese, G., Coelli, T., 1995. A model for technical efficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics 20, 325-332]. The results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively efficiency. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

Technological diversification and new innovators in European regions:evidence from patent data

This paper assesses the impact of regional technological diversification on the emergence of new innovators across EU regions. Integrating analyses from regional economics, economic geography and technological change literatures, we explore the role that the regional embeddedness of actors characterised by diverse technological competencies may have in fostering novel and sustained interactions leading to new technological combinations. In particular, we test whether greater technological diversification improve regional ‘combinatorial’ opportunities leading to the emergence of new innovators. The analysis is based on panel data obtained merging regional economic data from Eurostat and patent data from the CRIOS-PATSTAT database over the period 1997–2006, covering 178 regions across 10 EU Countries. Accounting for different measures of economic and innovative activity at the NUTS2 level, our findings suggest that the regional co-location of diverse technological competencies contributes to the entry of new innovators, thereby shaping technological change and industry dynamics. Thus, this paper brings to the fore a better understanding of the relationship between regional diversity and technological change.

Inequality, fiscal capacity and the political regime: lessons from the post-communist transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.

Privatisation, corporate control and employment growth:evidence from a panel of large Polish firms, 1996-2002

Using panel data on large Polish firms this paper examines the relationship between corporate control structures, sales growth and the determinants of employment change during the period 1996-2002. We find that privatised and de novo firms are the main drivers of employment growth and that, in the case of de novo firms, it is foreign ownership which underpins the result. Interestingly, we find that being privatised has a positive impact on employment growth but that this impact is concentrated within a range of three to six years after privatisation. In contrast with the findings of earlier literature, we find evidence that there are no systematic differences in employment response to negative sales growth across the ownership categories. On the other hand, employment in state firms is less responsive to positive sales growth. From these combined results we infer that the behaviour of state firms is constrained by both insider rent sharing and binding budget constraints. Consistent with this, we find that privatised companies, three to six years post-privatisation, are the firms for whom employment is most responsive to positive sales growth and as such, offer the best hope for rapid labour market expansion.

Analysis and Data Mining of Lead-Zinc Ore Data

This paper presents the results of our data mining study of Pb-Zn (lead-zinc) ore assay records from a mine enterprise in Bulgaria. We examined the dataset, cleaned outliers, visualized the data, and created dataset statistics. A Pb-Zn cluster data mining model was created for segmentation and prediction of Pb-Zn ore assay data. The Pb-Zn cluster data model consists of five clusters and DMX queries. We analyzed the Pb-Zn cluster content, size, structure, and characteristics. The set of the DMX queries allows for browsing and managing the clusters, as well as predicting ore assay records. A testing and validation of the Pb-Zn cluster data mining model was developed in order to show its reasonable accuracy before beingused in a production environment. The Pb-Zn cluster data mining model can be used for changes of the mine grinding and floatation processing parameters in almost real-time, which is important for the efficiency of the Pb-Zn ore beneficiation process. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8, H.3.3.

Representing supply chain events on the Web of data

The Electronic Product Code Information Service (EPCIS) is an EPCglobal standard, that aims to bridge the gap between the physical world of RFID1 tagged artifacts, and information systems that enable their tracking and tracing via the Electronic Product Code (EPC). Central to the EPCIS data model are "events" that describe specific occurrences in the supply chain. EPCIS events, recorded and registered against EPC tagged artifacts, encapsulate the "what", "when", "where" and "why" of these artifacts as they flow through the supply chain. In this paper we propose an ontological model for representing EPCIS events on the Web of data. Our model provides a scalable approach for the representation, integration and sharing of EPCIS events as linked data via RESTful interfaces, thereby facilitating interoperability, collaboration and exchange of EPC related data across enterprises on a Web scale.

Heterogenitás és technikai hatékonyság - a magyar specializált szántóföldi növénytermesztő üzemek esete = Heterogeneity and technical efficiency - the case of Hungary's specialized arable crop production units

A cikkben paneladatok segítségével a magyar gabonatermesztő üzemek 2001 és 2009 közötti technikai hatékonyságát vizsgáljuk. A technikai hatékonyság szintjének becslésére egy hagyományos sztochasztikus határok modell (SFA) mellett a látens csoportok modelljét (LCM) használjuk, amely figyelembe veszi a technológiai különbségeket is. Eredményeink arra utalnak, hogy a technológiai heterogenitás fontos lehet egy olyan ágazatban is, mint a szántóföldi növénytermesztés, ahol viszonylag homogén technológiát alkalmaznak. A hagyományos, azonos technológiát feltételező és a látens osztályok modelljeinek összehasonlítása azt mutatja, hogy a gabonatermesztő üzemek technikai hatékonyságát a hagyományos modellek alábecsülhetik. _____ The article sets out to analyse the technical efficiency of Hungarian crop farms between 2001 and 2009, using panel data and employing both standard stochastic frontier analysis and the latent class model (LCM) to estimate technical efficiency. The findings suggest that technological heterogeneity plays an important role in the crop sector, though it is traditionally assumed to employ homogenous technology. A comparison of standard SFA models that assumes the technology is common to all farms and LCM estimates highlights the way the efficiency of crop farms can be underestimated using traditional SFA models.

Three essays on entrepreneurial entry, serial entrepreneurship, and labor turnover

This study explores two important aspects of entrepreneurship — liquidity constraints and serial entrepreneurs, with an additional analysis of occupational choice among wage workers. In the first essay, I revisit the question of whether entrepreneurs face liquidity constraints in business formation. The principle challenge is that wealth is correlated with unobserved ability, and adequate instruments are often difficult to identify. This paper uses the son's birth order as an instrument for household wealth. I exploit the data available in the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, and find evidence of liquidity constraints associated with self-employment in South Korea. The second essay develops and tests a model that explains entry into serial entrepreneurship and the performance of serial entrepreneurs as the result of selection on innate ability. The model supposes that agents establish businesses with imperfect information about their entrepreneurial ability and the profitability of business ideas. Agents continually observe signals with which they update their beliefs, and this process eventually determines their next business choice. Selection on ability induces a positive correlation between entrepreneurial experience (measured by previous business earnings and founding experience) and serial business formation, as well as its subsequent performance. The predictions in the model are tested using panel data from the NLSY79. The analysis permits a distinction to be made between selection on innate ability and learning by doing. Motivated by previous empirical findings that white-collar workers had higher turnover rates than blue-collar workers during firm expansion, the third essay further examines job turnover among workers with or without specific skills. I present a search-matching model, which predicts that when firm growth is driven by technological advance, workers whose skills are specific to the obsolete technology show a higher tendency to separate from their jobs. This hypothesis is tested with data from the PSID. I find supportive evidence that in the context of technological change, having an occupation requiring specific skills, such as computer specialists or engineers, increases the odds of job separation by nearly eight percent. ^

Integrated assessment of water conservation practices for sustainable management strategies

Miami-Dade County implemented a series of water conservation programs, which included rebate/exchange incentives to encourage the use of high efficiency aerators (AR), showerheads (SH), toilets (HET) and clothes washers (HEW), to respond to the environmental sustainability issue in urban areas. This study first used panel data analysis of water consumption to evaluate the performance and actual water savings of individual programs. Integrated water demand model has also been developed for incorporating property’s physical characteristics into the water consumption profiles. Life cycle assessment (with emphasis on end-use stage in water system) of water intense appliances was conducted to determine the environmental impacts brought by each practice. Approximately 6 to 10 % of water has been saved in the first and second year of implementation of high efficiency appliances, and with continuing savings in the third and fourth years. Water savings (gallons per household per day) for water efficiency appliances were observed at 28 (11.1%) for SH, 34.7 (13.3%) for HET, and 39.7 (14.5%) for HEW. Furthermore, the estimated contributions of high efficiency appliances for reducing water demand in the integrated water demand model were between 5 and 19% (highest in the AR program). Results indicated that adoption of more than one type of water efficiency appliance could significantly reduce residential water demand. For the sustainable water management strategies, the appropriate water conservation rate was projected to be 1 to 2 million gallons per day (MGD) through 2030. With 2 MGD of water savings, the estimated per capita water use (GPCD) could be reduced from approximately 140 to 122 GPCD. Additional efforts are needed to reduce the water demand to US EPA’s “Water Sense” conservation levels of 70 GPCD by 2030. Life cycle assessment results showed that environmental impacts (water and energy demands and greenhouse gas emissions) from end-use and demand phases are most significant within the water system, particularly due to water heating (73% for clothes washer and 93% for showerhead). Estimations of optimal lifespan for appliances (8 to 21 years) implied that earlier replacement with efficiency models is encouraged in order to minimize the environmental impacts brought by current practice.

Essays in economic growth, political economy and institutions

This dissertation analyzes the effects of political and economic institutions on economic development and growth.^ The first essay develops an overlapping-generations political economy model to analyze the incentives of various social groups to finance human capital accumulation through public education expenditures. The contribution of this study to the literature is that it helps explain the observed differences in the economic growth performance of natural resource-abundant countries. The results suggest that the preferred tax rates of the manufacturers on one hand and the political coalition of manufacturers and landowners, on the other hand, are equal to the socially optimal tax rate. However, we show that owners of natural resources prefer an excessively high tax rate, which suppresses aggregate output to a suboptimal level.^ The second essay examines the relationship between the political influence of different social classes and public education spending in panel data estimation. The novel contribution of this paper to the literature is that I proxy the political power and influence of the natural resource owners, manufacturers, and landowners with macroeconomic indicators. The motivation behind this modeling choice is to substantiate the definition of the political power of social classes with economic fundamentals. I use different governance indicators in the estimations to find out how different institutions mediate the overall impact of the political influence of various social classes on public education spending. The results suggest that political stability and absence of violence and rule of law are the important governance indicators.^ The third essay develops a counter argument to Acemoglu et al. (2010) where the thesis is that French institutions and economic reforms fostered economic progress in those German regions invaded by the Napoleonic armies. By providing historical data on urbanization rates used as proxies for economic growth, I demonstrate that similar different rates of economic growth were observed in the regions of France in the post-Napoleonic period as well. The existence of different economic growth rates makes it hard to argue that the differences in economic performance in the German regions that were invaded by the French and those that were spared a similar fate follow from regional differences in economic institutions.^