Breeding parameters of great cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo carbo) at mixed species colonies on Prince Edward Island, Canada

Breeding parameters of Great Cormorants (PkaZac/iOCOfiCLX CCUibo dCUtbo) and Double-crested Cormorants (P. CLU/uXuA CMJhLtllb) were examined at two mixed species colonies at Cape Tryon and Durell Point, Prince Edward Island from 1976 to 1978. Differential access to nests at the two colony sites resulted in more complete demographic data for P. CCUibo than for P. CLUJiituA. In 1911j P. CCtfibo was present at both colonies by 21 March, whereas P. auAAJtuA did not return until 1 April and 16 April at Cape Tryon and Durell Point, respectively. Differences in the arrival chronology by individuals of each species and differences in the time of nest site occupation according to age, are suggested as factors influencing the nest site distribution of P. CXUtbo and P. aiVtituA at Cape Tryon. Forty-eight P. dOJtbo chicks banded at the Durell Point colony between 19 74 and 19 76 returned there to nest as two- to four-year olds in 19 77 and 19 78. Unmarked individuals with clutch-starts in April were likely greater than four years old as all marked two to four-year olds (with one possible exception) in 19 77 and 1978 had clutch-starts in May and June. Seasonal variation in the breeding success of P. dOJibo individuals was examined at Durell Point in 1977. Mean clutch-size, hatching success and fledging success exhibited a seasonal decline. Four- and 5-egg clutches represented the majority (75%) of all P. CCUibo clutches at Durell Point in 1977 and had the highest reproductive success (0.48 and 0.43 chicks fledged per egg laid respectively). Smaller clutches produced small broods with significantly higher chick mortality while larger clutches suffered high egg loss prior to clutch completion.

Feeding rates, parental investment, and brood reduction in Caspian terns (Sterna caspia)

Fresh egg-weights and feeding rates to chicks were related to chick survival as one means of quantifying apportionment of parental investment wi thin broods of Caspian Terns (SterDI casRla) at a colony in Georgian Bay. Lake Huron, during 1978 and 1979. Ftrst-laid eggs from 2-egg clutches were Significantly heavier and usually hatched one to three days earlier than second-laid eggs in both years of the study. In both years, first-hatched chicks were larger and generally better fed than second-hatched siblings. The disparity between feedIng rates of first- and second-hatched ehicks was greater in 1979. Brood feeding I rates correlated positively with the percentage of food fed to the least-fed sibUng through the period of B-chick ages zero to 10 days in 1978. I suggest that after this age period, parental control over whlcb cbick was fed diminished. In 1978, 10 of 16 secondhatched chicks were fed more than their older siblings during their first 5 days. 'lb.is is interpreted as a parental response to reduce the competitive advantage of the larger first-hatched chicks. Most chick losses were apparently caused by starvation or preda. tion. In 1979, seeorvl-hatched chick disappearance (due to predation) was -related to low feeding rates, whereas first-hatched chick disappearance was related to low fresh egg-weights.. First-hatched chicks survived better than second-hatched chicks both years, and more pairs fledged two chicks in 1978. Maximum estimated feeding rates at the nest and fledging ages suggested that food was more avatlable in 1978 than in 1979. In 1979, second eggs apparently functioned as "insurance" eggs. When the first-laid egg falled to hatch, or the first-hatched chick died, the second-hatched chick was often successfully fledged. When first-hatched chicks survived, the second-hatched chick usually starved or was preyed upon, reducing the brood to one chick. Parental investment patterns favored first-hatched chicks. Brood reduction, when employed, discouraged total nest failure, however, under appropriate conditions, brood reduction was avoided and full broods (or two chicks) were fledged.

Seasonal variation in the reproductive biology of the ring -billed gull (Larus delawarensis)

The reproductive biology of the Ring-billed Gull (Larus delawarensis) was studied on Gull Island, Presqu'ile Provincial Park, Ontario, in 1976 and 1977. Early started clutches (comprising the majority of clutches on Gull Island) in 1977 produced more chicks per nest (2.20 ± 0.09) than late started clutches (0.86 ± 0.13) as a result of reductions in mean clutch size, hatching success and fledging success with date of clutch initiation. Seasonal changes in mean clutch size, hatching success and fledging success also resulted in early clutches, initiated at the peak of clutch starts, producing more chicks per nest (2.34 ± 0.11) than either pre-peak (2.13 ± 0.20) or post-peak (1.82 ± 0.29) clutches. Possible reasons for these trends, including the observed predominance of immature plumaged, breeding gulls in late started areas, are discussed. Clutches were deserted at night for varying lengths of time from at least 15 April until 10 May, 1977. It is suggested that this nocturnal desertion behaviour resulted in the enhancement of inter- and intra-clutch hatching synchrony in early started areas and further, that this may in part explain the existence of the behaviour in terms of its adaptive significance.

Intraspecific and interspecific social variation in the sweat bee Lasioglossum Malachurum and other members of the subgenus Evylaeus

Sweat bees exhibit a range of social behaviours, from solitary nesting, in which no workers are produced, to strong eusociality, in which workers exhibit a high degree of altruism, behaviour that is measured by the degree of personal reproductive sacrifice. Field studies were carried out for seven weeks during May-June 2000 in southern Greece in order to investigate intraspecific social variation, and test the hypothesis of a north-south cline of decreasing eusociality in the obligately eusocial sweat bee L. (E.) malachurum. A comparative study, using principal components analysis, was performed to determine if patterns of intraspecific social variation in L. malachurum reflect the patterns of social variation within the subgenus, Evylaeus, as a whole. The results of the field study reveal that, in Greece, two worker broods were produced followed by a third brood consisting of gynes, males and some workers, indicating that there was an overlap in worker and gyne production. There was strong caste distinction between queens and workers. Workers actively foraged and participated in nest construction as most workers (58%, n=303) had a high degree of mandibular wear. Workers did not participate in the oviposition of Brood 3 gynes since only 0.7% (n=278) of workers were mated. Furthermore, queen survival until the end of Brood 3 and a substantial size differential of 10.6% between queens and workers suggested that queen domination over worker behaviour during the early to mid-part of the colony cycle was plausible. Male production in Brood 3 by some workers was likely, since the timing of worker ovarian development corresponded with the timing of male production. These findings suggest that workers of the first two broods were primarily altruistic, but some (28%) Brood 1 (9%) and Brood 2 (19%) workers produced males, indicating that the degree of altruistic behaviour declined during the lifetime of the colony. In comparison with other L. malachurum populations in Europe, the Greek population of L. malachurum had a weaker social level as a result of the higher proportion of workers potentially involved in male production, thus 3 supporting the hypothesis of a southerly cline of decreasing eusociality. Furthermore, intraspecific variation in social level across Europe appears to be due to longer breeding seasons in more southerly locations that would promote the production of larger colonies and provide opportunities for workers to evade queen control. The comparative study using principal components analysis on 20 solitary (of the subgenera Evylaeus and Lasioglossum), eusocial and socially polymorphic Evylaeus species and populations reveals that six traits are closely associated with stronger eusociality in Evylaeus. These traits are: (1) a reduction in the proportion of males in the early brood(s); (2) a reduction in the proportion of females that mate; (3) an increase in the mean number of first brood workers; (4) a reduction in the proportion of females with developed ovaries; (5) an increase in size dimorphism between castes, and (6) nest guarding. These are traits that most significantly define principal component one and therefore distinguish social type as indicated by a clear separation of the eusocial and the solitary populations, with a socially polymorphic species falling in between. Furthermore, most of these traits are under foundress control and may suggest that the evolutionary loss or gain of eusociality is based on selection pressures on a founding female. Colony size and female ovarian development are common factors distinguishing social variation in L. malachurum and within the subgenus as a whole. The principal components analysis excluding the solitary species and the socially aberrant L. marginatum populations show the L. malachurum populations separated based on an increasing proportion of workers with developed ovaries as populations are found more south, lending further support to the hypothesis of a north-south cline of decreasing eusociality.

Evolutionary Origin and Maintenance of Sociality in the Small Carpenter Bees

Many arthropods exhibit behaviours precursory to social life, including adult longevity, parental care, nest loyalty and mutual tolerance, yet there are few examples of social behaviour in this phylum. The small carpenter bees, genus Ceratina, provide important insights into the early stages of sociality. I described the biology and social behaviour of five facultatively social species which exhibit all of the preadaptations for successful group living, yet present ecological and behavioural characteristics that seemingly disfavour frequent colony formation. These species are socially polymorphic with both / solitary and social nests collected in sympatry. Social colonies consist of two adult females, one contributing both foraging and reproductive effort and the second which remains at the nest as a passive guard. Cooperative nesting provides no overt reproductive benefits over solitary nesting, although brood survival tends to be greater in social colonies. Three main theories explain cooperation among conspecifics: mutual benefit, kin selection and manipulation. Lifetime reproductive success calculations revealed that mutual benefit does not explain social behaviour in this group as social colonies have lower per capita life time reproductive success than solitary nests. Genetic pedigrees constructed from allozyme data indicate that kin selection might contribute to the maintenance of social nesting -, as social colonies consist of full sisters and thus some indirect fitness benefits are inherently bestowed on subordinate females as a result of remaining to help their dominant sister. These data suggest that the origin of sociality in ceratinines has principal costs and the great ecological success of highly eusociallineages occurred well after social origins. Ecological constraints such as resource limitation, unfavourable weather conditions and parasite pressure have long been considered some of the most important selective pressures for the evolution of sociality. I assessed the fitness consequences of these three ecological factors for reproductive success of solitary and social colonies and found that nest sites were not limiting, and the frequency of social nesting was consistent across brood rearing seasons. Local weather varied between seasons but was not correlated with reproductive success. Severe parasitism resulted in low reproductive success and total nest failure in solitary nests. Social colonies had higher reproductive success and were never extirpated by parasites. I suggest that social nesting represents a form of bet-hedging. The high frequency of solitary nests suggests that this is the optimal strategy when parasite pressure is low. However, social colonies have a selective advantage over solitary nesting females during periods of extreme parasite pressure. Finally, the small carpenter bees are recorded from all continents except Antarctica. I constructed the first molecular phylogeny of ceratinine bees based on four gene regions of selected species covering representatives from all continents and ecological regions. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian Inference tree topology and fossil dating support an African origin followed by an Old World invasion and New World radiation. All known Old World ceratinines form social colonies while New World species are largely solitary; thus geography and phylogenetic inertia are likely predictors of social evolution in this genus. This integrative approach not only describes the behaviour of several previously unknown or little-known Ceratina species, bu~ highlights the fact that this is an important, though previously unrecognized, model for studying evolutionary transitions from solitary to social behaviour.

The Implications of Forager Behaviour for Social Organisation in a Socially Polymorphic Carpenter Bee (Xylocopa virginica)

In social Hymenoptera, the division of labour is a major step in the evolution of sociality. Bees, which express many different kinds of sociality, can be classified according to how individuals share or do not share foraging and reproductive activities (Michener, 1974). The large carpenter bee, Xylocopa virginica, lives in populations with both solitary and social nests. In social nests, reproduction is controlled by the dominant female, who does all of her own foraging and egg-laying, while the subordinates guard the nest only. This study examined foraging behaviour as a way to classify the social hierarchy. Individual females were marked, measured and intensely observed for the foraging season. It was found that a large number of subordinates forage and likely obtain more reproductive fitness than previously thought. The dominance hierarchy is very likely a social queue, in which bees take turns foraging and egg-laying.

Alloparental care in a solitary bee

Research into the evolutionary origins of sociality in insect colonies is changing emphasis from understanding how eusociality is maintained to how insects transition from solitary to social lifestyles. The pygmy carpenter bees (Ceratina spp.) offer an excellent model for investigating such factors as they have been historically thought of as solitary but have recently been shown to be socially polymorphic, which may indicate that they are currently in a transitive phase. By utilizing behavioural observation and experimental removal protocols, I show that extended parental care, as well as sibling care in Ceratina calcarata plays an important role in offspring development. I found, upon removal of the mother, that specifically produced ‘dwarf’ female offspring take over parental care roles in the nest. The existence of alloparental care and generational overlap suggests that although they are classified as solitary bees, C. calcarata possess the prerequisite behavioural repertoire for sociality.

Letter - E.C. Schmon to Arthur A. Schmon, 31 May 1918

The letter reads: " Darling Artie, I have just been reading the war news and Oh! how terribly discouraging it is. This mornings paper says the allies have yieldes on a forty-mile front, that Soissons had been taken by the Germans and Rheims is in grave peril and may fall at any moment. And think - only the third day of the new drive, too. I know that everything will end all right, but it surely has an awful affect on you, to read these reports. Of course no one knows, but it is the opinion of people in military circles here, that the war will last two years more at least; and in all probability five or six. Cheerful prospects. Yes? So you see, Artie dear, that you must come home on a leave, the very first opportunity you have. Understand? I am going down to Red Cross now, to do a little work. Tonight Mrs. Mizger, Doris and the two Braun girls are coming down. They want to see the rest of the pretty things that are in our sacred chest, and I just love to them, too. There are days when I have them out three or four times and I picture each thing in our little nest - after the war is over - - (Joy!!) Au revoir, honey-bunch boy. All the love, hugs and kisses that you desire. Always your, Wifie. P.S. And still no mail. Boo! Hoo! L."

Vertical R&D Sprillovers, Cooperation, Market Structure, and Innovation.

This paper studies vertical R&D spillovers between upstream and downstream firms. The model incorporates two vertically related industries, with horizontal spillovers within each industry and vertical spillovers between the two industries. Four types of R&D cooperation are studied : no cooperation, horizontal cooperation, vertical cooperation, and simultaneous horizontal and vertical cooperation. Vertical spillovers always increase R&D and welfare, while horizontal spillovers may increase or decrease them. The comparison of cooperative settings in terms of R&D shows that no setting uniformly dominates the others. Which type of cooperation yields more R&D depends on horizontal and vertical spillovers, and market structure. The ranking of cooperative structures hinges on the signs and magnitudes of three competitive externalities (vertical, horizontal, and diagonal) which capture the effect of the R&D of a firm on the profits of other firms. One of the basic results of the strategic investment literature is that cooperation between competitors increases (decreases) R&D when horizontal spillovers are high (low); the model shows that this result does not necessarily hold when vertical spillovers and vertical cooperation are taken into account. The paper proposes a theory of innovation and market structure, showing that the relation between innovation and competition depends on horizontal spillovers, vertical spillovers, and cooperative settings. The private incentives for R&D cooperation are addressed. It is found that buyers and sellers have divergent interests regarding the choice of cooperative settings and that spillovers increase the likelihood of the emergence of cooperation in a decentralized equilibrium.

Rationalizability of Choice Functions on General Domains without Full Transitivity

The rationalizability of a choice function by means of a transitive relation has been analyzed thoroughly in the literature. However, not much seems to be known when transitivity is weakened to quasi-transitivity or acyclicity. We describe the logical relationships between the different notions of rationalizability involving, for example, the transitivity, quasi-transitivity, or acyclicity of the rationalizing relation. Furthermore, we discuss sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for rational choice on arbitrary domains. Transitive, quasi-transitive, and acyclical rationalizability are fully characterized for domains that contain all singletons and all two-element subsets of the universal set.

A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilies

In this paper, we provide both qualitative and quantitative measures of the cost of measuring the integrated volatility by the realized volatility when the frequency of observation is fixed. We start by characterizing for a general diffusion the difference between the realized and the integrated volatilities for a given frequency of observations. Then, we compute the mean and variance of this noise and the correlation between the noise and the integrated volatility in the Eigenfunction Stochastic Volatility model of Meddahi (2001a). This model has, as special examples, log-normal, affine, and GARCH diffusion models. Using some previous empirical works, we show that the standard deviation of the noise is not negligible with respect to the mean and the standard deviation of the integrated volatility, even if one considers returns at five minutes. We also propose a simple approach to capture the information about the integrated volatility contained in the returns through the leverage effect.

Statistical Inference for Computable General Equilibrium Models with Application to a Model of the Moroccan Economy

We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

Finite-Sample Inference Methods for Simultaneous Equations and Models with Unobserved and Generated Regressors

We propose finite sample tests and confidence sets for models with unobserved and generated regressors as well as various models estimated by instrumental variables methods. The validity of the procedures is unaffected by the presence of identification problems or \"weak instruments\", so no detection of such problems is required. We study two distinct approaches for various models considered by Pagan (1984). The first one is an instrument substitution method which generalizes an approach proposed by Anderson and Rubin (1949) and Fuller (1987) for different (although related) problems, while the second one is based on splitting the sample. The instrument substitution method uses the instruments directly, instead of generated regressors, in order to test hypotheses about the \"structural parameters\" of interest and build confidence sets. The second approach relies on \"generated regressors\", which allows a gain in degrees of freedom, and a sample split technique. For inference about general possibly nonlinear transformations of model parameters, projection techniques are proposed. A distributional theory is obtained under the assumptions of Gaussian errors and strictly exogenous regressors. We show that the various tests and confidence sets proposed are (locally) \"asymptotically valid\" under much weaker assumptions. The properties of the tests proposed are examined in simulation experiments. In general, they outperform the usual asymptotic inference methods in terms of both reliability and power. Finally, the techniques suggested are applied to a model of Tobin’s q and to a model of academic performance.

ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances

This paper derives the ARMA representation of integrated and realized variances when the spot variance depends linearly on two autoregressive factors, i.e., SR SARV(2) models. This class of processes includes affine, GARCH diffusion, CEV models, as well as the eigenfunction stochastic volatility and the positive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. We also study the leverage effect case, the relationship between weak GARCH representation of returns and the ARMA representation of realized variances. Finally, various empirical implications of these ARMA representations are considered. We find that it is possible that some parameters of the ARMA representation are negative. Hence, the positiveness of the expected values of integrated or realized variances is not guaranteed. We also find that for some frequencies of observations, the continuous time model parameters may be weakly or not identified through the ARMA representation of realized variances.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.