Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Babesia bovis: Genome size, number of chromosomes and telomeric probe hybridisation

Pulsed field gel electrophoresis of intact chromosomes of Babesia bovis revealed four chromosomes in the haploid genome. A telomere probe, derived from Plasmodium berghei, hybridised to eight SfiI restriction fragments of genomic B. bovis DNA digests indicating the presence of four chromosomes. A small subunit (18S) ribosomal RNA gene probe hybridised to the third chromosome only. The genome size of B. bovis is estimated to be 9.4 million base pairs. The sizes of chromosomes 1, 2, 3 and 4 are estimated to be 1.4, 2.0, 2.8 and 3.2 million base pairs, respectively. (C) 1997 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Capillary network models for transport in packed beds: Considerations of pore aspect ratio

The conventional analysis for the estimation of the tortuosity factor for transport in porous media is modified here to account for the effect of pore aspect ratio. Structural models of the porous medium are also constructed for calculating the aspect ratio as a function of porosity. Comparison of the model predictions with the extensive data of Currie (1960) for the effective diffusivity of hydrogen in packed beds shows good agreement with a network model of randomly oriented intersecting pores for porosities upto about 50 percent, which is the region of practical interest. The predictions based on this network model are also found to be in better agreement with the data of Currie than earlier expressions developed for unconsolidated and grainy media.

Electrical impedance particle size method (Coulter Counter) detects the large fat globules in poorly homogenised UHT processed milk

The large fat globules that can be present in UHT milk due to inadequate homogenisation cause a cream layer to form that limits the shelf life of UHT milk. Four different particle size measurement techniques were used to measure the size of fat globules in poorly homogenised UHT milk processed in a UHT pilot plant. The thickness of the cream layer that formed during storage was negatively correlated with homogenisation pressure. It was positively correlated with the mass mean diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by laser light scattering using the Malvern Mastersizer. Also, the thickness of the cream layer was positively correlated with the volume mode diameter and the percentage volume of particles between 1.5 and 2 mu m diameter, as determined by electrical impedance using the Coulter Counter. The cream layer thickness did not correlate significantly with the Coulter Counter measurements of volume mean diameter, or volume percentages of particles between 2 and 5 mu m or 5 and 10 mu m diameter. Spectroturbidimetry (Emulsion Quality Analyser) and light microscopy analyses were found to be unsuitable for assessing the size of the fat particles. This study suggests that the fat globule size distribution as determined by the electrical impedance method (Coulter Counter) is the most useful for determining the efficiency of homogenisation and therefore for predicting the stability of the fat emulsion in UHT milk during storage.

Effect of self-monitoring and national culture on follower perceptions of personal charisma and charismatic message

In this paper, a theory of charismatic relationships is examined with reference to the follower's personal characteristics. It is argued that a leader's charismatic message and personal charisma occupy different roles for individuals who vary in national culture and level of self-monitoring. In an empirical test of the theory, 387 undergraduates of Chinese and Australian cultural backgrounds completed self-monitoring and charismatic leadership instruments. High self-monitors placed more importance on personal charisma than the charismatic message. Chinese participants relied more than the Australians on the charismatic message, although this preference depended on self-monitoring orientation. These results indicate the influence of both individual-and cultural-level variables on leader-member relationships, and the need to consider these effects in future developments of a theory of charismatic leadership.

Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Determination of pore size distributions by regularization and finite element collocation

The problem of extracting pore size distributions from characterization data is solved here with particular reference to adsorption. The technique developed is based on a finite element collocation discretization of the adsorption integral, with fitting of the isotherm data by least squares using regularization. A rapid and simple technique for ensuring non-negativity of the solutions is also developed which modifies the original solution having some negativity. The technique yields stable and converged solutions, and is implemented in a package RIDFEC. The package is demonstrated to be robust, yielding results which are less sensitive to experimental error than conventional methods, with fitting errors matching the known data error. It is shown that the choice of relative or absolute error norm in the least-squares analysis is best based on the kind of error in the data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Insufficiently active Australian college students: Perceived personal, social, and environmental influences

Background. A sustainable pattern of participation in physical activity is important in the maintenance of health and prevention of disease, College students are in transition from an active youth to a more sedentary adult behavior pattern. Methods. We assessed self-reported physical activity and other characteristics in a sample of 2,729 male and female students (median age was 20 years) recruited from representative courses and year levels at four Australian College campuses. They were categorized as sufficiently or insufficiently active, using estimates of energy expenditure (kcal/week) derived from self-reported physical activity, Personal factors (self-efficacy, job status, enjoyment), social factors (social support from family/friends), and environmental factors (awareness of facilities, gym membership) were also assessed. Results. Forty-seven percent of females and 32% of males were insufficiently active. For females, the significant independent predictors of being insufficiently active were lower social support from family and friends, lower enjoyment of activity, and not working. For males, predictors were lower social support from family and friends, lower enjoyment of activity, and being older. Conclusions. Factors associated with physical activity participation (particularly social support from family and friends) can inform physical activity strategies directed at young adults in the college setting. (C) 1999 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Modeling the fluid-flow-induced stress and collapse in a dendritic network

An analytical approach to the stress development in the coherent dendritic network during solidification is proposed. Under the assumption that stresses are developed in the network as a result of the friction resisting shrinkage-induced interdendritic fluid flow, the model predicts the stresses in the solid. The calculations reflect the expected effects of postponed dendrite coherency, slower solidification conditions, and variations of eutectic volume fraction and shrinkage. Comparing the calculated stresses to the measured shear strength of equiaxed mushy zones shows that it is possible for the stresses to exceed the strength, thereby resulting in reorientation or collapse of the dendritic network.

Size of the first spring generation of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) and winter rain in central Australia

Serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera are experienced yearly in the eastern cropping regions of Australia. Regression analysis was used to determine whether the size of the first generation in spring (G(1)), which is comprised mostly of immigrants from inland Australia, was related to monthly rainfall in inland winter breeding areas. Data from two long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri in New South Wales (NSW) and Turretfield in South Australia (SA) were used in the analyses. The size of G1 at Narrabri in each year was significantly regressed on the amount of rainfall in western Queensland and NSW in May and June. The size of G1 at Turretfield each year was significantly regressed on the amount of rain in May, June and July in western Queensland and NSW and also in the desert of central Western Australia. Low r(2) values of the regressions suggest that rainfall data for more sites, as well as biological and other physical factors, such as temperature, evaporation, and prevailing wind systems, may need to be included to improve forecasts of the potential magnitude of the infestations in coastal cropping regions.

A pore-size-dependent equation of state for multilayer adsorption in cylindrical mesopores

The chemical potential of adsorbed film inside cylindrical mesopores is dependent on the attractive interactions between the adsorbed molecules and adsorbent, the curvature of gas/adsorbed phase interface, and surface tension. A state equation of the adsorbed film is proposed to take into account the above factors. Nitrogen adsorption on model adsorbents, MCM-41, which exhibit uniform cylindrical channels, are used to verify the theoretical analysis. The proposed theory is capable of describing the important features of adsorption processes in cylindrical mesopores. According to this theory, at a given relative pressure, the smaller the pore radius is, the thicker the adsorbed film will be. The thickening of adsorbed films in the pores as the vapor pressure increases inevitably causes an increase in the interface curvature, which consequently leads to capillary condensation. Besides, this study confirmed that the interface tension depends substantially on the interface curvature in small mesopores. A quantitative relationship between the condensation pressure and the pore radius can be derived from the state equation and used to predict the pore radius from a condensation pressure, or vice versa.

A novel method for tailoring the pore-opening size of MCM-41 materials

A novel pore tailoring method is proposed by which the pore-opening sizes of MCM-41 materials can be finely tuned without significant loss in pore volume and surface area.