RP94-217 No. 18 Use of Crop Futures and Options by the Nontrader

Crop producers make a number of decisions that are market related. They may be categorized as financial decisions, production decisions, or marketing decisions. All three decisions depend on what prices are likely to be at some specific time in the future. The marketing decisions is complex. This research publication discusses the number of alternatives that are available even for the producer who does not directly buy or sell futures or options contracts.

Cancer-related deaths among different treatment options in chronic coronary artery disease: results of a 6-year follow-up of the MASS II study

Introduction The primary end points of randomized clinical trials evaluating the outcome of therapeutic strategies for coronary artery disease (CAD) have included nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, the need for further revascularization, and overall mortality. Noncardiac causes of death may distort the interpretation of the long-term effects of coronary revascularization. Materials and methods This post-hoc analysis of the second Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study evaluates the cause of mortality of patients with multivessel CAD undergoing medical treatment, percutaneous coronary intervention, or surgical myocardial revascularization [coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG)] after a 6-year follow-up. Mortality was classified as cardiac and noncardiac death, and the causes of noncardiac death were reported. Results Patients were randomized into CABG and non-CABG groups (percutaneous coronary intervention plus medical treatment). No statistical differences were observed in overall mortality (P = 0.824). A significant difference in the distribution of causes of mortality was observed among the CABG and non-CABG groups (P = 0.003). In the CABG group, of the 203 randomized patients, the overall number of deaths was 34. Sixteen patients (47.1%) died of cardiac causes and 18 patients (52.9%) died of noncardiac causes. Of these, seven deaths (20.6%) were due to neoplasia. In the non-CABG group, comprising 408 patients, the overall number of deaths was 69. Fifty-three patients (77%) died of cardiac causes and 16 patients (23%) died of noncardiac causes. Only five deaths (7.2%) were due to neoplasia. Conclusion Different treatment options for multivessel coronary artery disease have similar overall mortality: CABG patients had the lowest incidence of cardiac death, but the highest incidence of noncardiac causes of death, and specifically a higher tendency toward cancer-related deaths. Coron Artery Dis 23:79-84 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Le scelte di investimento delle aziende agricole e la PAC post-2013: valutazione di scenari mediante un modello real options

Negli ultimi decenni la Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) è stata sottoposta a diverse revisioni, più o meno programmate, che ne hanno modificato gli obiettivi operativi e gli strumenti per perseguirli. In letteratura economica agraria sono state eseguite diverse ricerche che affrontano analisi ex-ante sui possibili impatti delle riforme politiche, in particolare al disaccoppiamento, riguardo all’allocazione dei terreni alle diverse colture e all’adozione di tecniche di coltivazione più efficienti. Ma tale argomento, nonostante sia di grande importanza, non è stato finora affrontato come altri temi del mondo agricolo. Le principali lacune si riscontrano infatti nella carenza di analisi ex-ante, di modelli che includano le preferenze e le aspettative degli agricoltori. Questo studio valuta le scelte di investimento in terreno di un’azienda agricola di fronte a possibili scenari PAC post-2013, in condizioni di incertezza circa le specifiche condizioni in cui ciascuno scenario verrebbe a verificarsi. L’obiettivo è di ottenere indicazioni utili in termini di comprensione delle scelte di investimento dell’agricoltore in presenza di incertezza sul futuro. L’elemento maggiormente innovativo della ricerca consiste nell’applicazione di un approccio real options e nell’interazione tra la presenza di diversi scenari sul futuro del settore agricolo post-2013, e la componente di incertezza che incide e gravita su di essi. La metodologia adottata nel seguente lavoro si basa sulla modellizzazione di un’azienda agricola, in cui viene simulato il comportamento dell’azienda agricola in reazione alle riforme della PAC e alla variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti in presenza di incertezza. Mediante un modello di Real Option viene valutata la scelta della tempistica ottimale per investire nell’acquisto di terreno (caratterizzato da incertezza e irreversibilità). Dai risultati emerge come in presenza di incertezza all’agricoltore convenga rimandare la decisione a dopo il 2013 e in base alle maggiori informazioni disponibili eseguire l’investimento solo in presenza di condizioni favorevoli. La variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti influenza le scelte più dell’incertezza dei contributi PAC. Il Real Option sembra interpretare meglio il comportamento dell’agricoltore rispetto all’approccio classico del Net Present Value.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.

Analysis of cumulative effects of multiple stressors on saltmarshes and consideration of management options

Natural systems face pressures exerted by natural physical-chemical forcings and a myriad of co-occurring human stressors that may interact to cause larger than expected effects, thereby presenting a challenge to ecosystem management. This thesis aimed to develop new information that can contribute to reduce the existing knowledge gaps hampering the holistic management of multiple stressors. I undertook a review of the state-of-the-art methods to detect, quantify and predict stressor interactions, identifying techniques that could be applied in this thesis research. Then, I conducted a systematic review of saltmarsh multiple stressor studies in conjunction with a multiple stressor mapping exercise for the study system in order to infer potential important synergistic stressor interactions. This analysis identified key stressors that are affecting the study system, but also pointed to data gaps in terms of driver and pressure data and raised issues for potentially overlooked stressors. Using field mesocosms, I explored how a local stressor (nutrient availability) affects the responses of saltmarsh vegetation to a global stressor (increased inundation) in different soil types. Results indicate that saltmarsh vegetation would be more drastically affected by increased inundation in low than in medium organic matter soils, and especially in estuaries already under high nutrient availability. In another field experiment, I examined the challenges of managing co-occurring and potentially interacting local stressors on saltmarsh vegetation: recreational trampling and smothering by deposition of excess macroalgal wrack due to high nutrient loads. Trampling and wrack prevention had interacting effects, causing non-linear responses of the vegetation to simulated management of these stressors, such that vegetation recovered only in those treatments simulating the combined prevention of both stressors. During this research I detected, using molecular genetic methods, a widespread presence of S. anglica (and to a lesser extent S. townsendii), two previously unrecorded non-native Spartinas in the study areas.

Nephrolithiasis-associated bone disease: pathogenesis and treatment options

Nephrolithiasis remains a formidable health problem in the United States and worldwide. A very important but underaddressed area in nephrolithiasis is the accompanying bone disease. Epidemiologic studies have shown that osteoporotic fractures occur more frequently in patients with nephrolithiasis than in the general population. Decreased bone mineral density and defects in bone remodeling are commonly encountered in patients with calcium nephrolithiasis. The pathophysiologic connection of bone defects to kidney stones is unknown. Hypercalciuria and hypocitraturia are two important risk factors for stone disease, and treatments with thiazide diuretics and alkali, respectively, have been shown to be useful in preventing stone recurrence in small prospective trials. However, no studies have examined the efficacy of these agents or other therapies in preventing continued bone loss in calcium stone formers. This manuscript reviews the epidemiology, pathophysiology, and potential treatments of bone disease in patients with nephrolithiasis.

[Prophylaxis and therapy of postdural puncture headache--a critical evaluation of treatment options]

Since the first description of spinal and epidural anaesthesia, postdural puncture headache (PDPH) is a well known complication. Its prophylaxis and treatment has been studied and discussed for more than 100 years, but the evidence is still limited. Due to relatively low prevalence of PDPH, prospective RCTs are often missing, and the frequently self-limiting character of PDPH impedes an adequate interpretation of results from studies without a control group. Taking side effects and complications into account, a prophylactic treatment of PDPH cannot be recommended. In case of PDPH, non-opioid analgesics are the first choice treatment. The epidural blood patch remains the mainstay of severe PDPH therapy. Noninvasive therapies like theophylline, sumatriptan and ACTH can be an alternative. However, an evidence-based recommendation is lacking. The development of standard operating procedures for accidental dural punctures and PDPH is recommended.

[Surgical treatment options in end-stage heart failure]

Despite significant improvements in pharmacological therapy heart failure is still one of the leading causes for death in the Western World. The gold standard treatment of end-stage heart failure remains cardiac transplantation, but there is a great excess of eligible candidates compared with the low number of suitable donor organs. The variety of surgical organ preserving treatment strategies has significantly increased during the last 20 years, intenting either to delay or even to prevent the need for cardiac transplantation. An individually tailored surgical concept should be considered as an alternative in any heart failure patient who has reached the limits of pharmacologic therapy. This article gives an overview about current and potential future therapeutic options in end-stage heart failure.

[Surgical options in the treatment of chronic venous ulcers]

Surgery offers several options in prevention of chronic venous insufficiency and its sequelae. Both the operation on veins with valve dysfunction to reduce reflux and the elimination of obstruction in thrombosed veins aim for the reduction of venous hypertension. Elevated venous pressure, impairment of cutaneous capillaries and a chronic inflammatory process result in sclerosis of skin and subcutaneous tissue and might proceed to the fascia resulting in a chronic compartment syndrome. Non- healing chronic venous ulcers under conservative therapy for more than three months may be treated by vein-surgery, local wound care therapy like shaving and negative pressure treatment and if necessary by lowering of elevated intracompartimental pressure by fasciotomy or even fasciectomy.

Communication about standard treatment options and clinical trials: can we teach doctors new skills to improve patient outcomes?

BACKGROUND: The International Breast Cancer Study Group conducted a phase III trial in Australian/New Zealand (ANZ) and Swiss/German/Austrian (SGA) centres on training doctors in clear and ethical information delivery about treatment options and strategies to encourage shared decision making. METHODS: Medical, surgical, gynaecological and radiation oncologists, and their patients for whom adjuvant breast cancer therapy was indicated, were eligible. Doctors were randomised to participate in a workshop with standardised teaching material and role playing. Patients were recruited in the experimental and control groups before and after the workshop. RESULTS: In ANZ centres, 21 eligible doctors recruited a total of 304 assessable patients. In SGA centres, 41 doctors recruited 390 patients. The training was well accepted. There was no overall effect on patient decisional conflict (primary endpoint) 2 weeks after the consultation. Overall, patients were satisfied with their treatment decision, their consultation and their doctors' consultation skills. Considerable variation was observed in patient outcomes between SGA and ANZ centres; the effect sizes of the intervention were marginal (<0.2). CONCLUSIONS: Shared decision making remains a challenge. A sustained training effect may require more intensive training tailored to the local setting. Cross-cultural differences need attention in conducting trials on communication interventions.

Advanced heart failure - treatment options beyond medical management

Improvement of heart failure therapy has led to a far better survival and quality of life of patients. Treatment of the underlying disease, patient education and improvement of compliance and consequent upgrading of medical heart failure therapy often delays further progression to an advanced stage of heart failure. Nevertheless heart failure remains a chronic progressive disease and it is up to the treating clinician to identify the signs of advanced heart failure in a timely manner in order to evaluate patients for further treatment strategies such as heart transplantation. This article should help define advanced heart failure and illustrate how patients are evaluated for further therapy. Outcome of heart transplantation or mechanically assisted circulatory support is strongly associated to proper patient selection and timing.

Current state of evidence on 'off-label' therapeutic options for systemic lupus erythematosus, including biological immunosuppressive agents, in Germany, Austria and Switzerland--a consensus report

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) can be a severe and potentially life-threatening disease that often represents a therapeutic challenge because of its heterogeneous organ manifestations. Only glucocorticoids, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, azathioprine, cyclophosphamide and very recently belimumab have been approved for SLE therapy in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Dependence on glucocorticoids and resistance to the approved therapeutic agents, as well as substantial toxicity, are frequent. Therefore, treatment considerations will include 'off-label' use of medication approved for other indications. In this consensus approach, an effort has been undertaken to delineate the limits of the current evidence on therapeutic options for SLE organ disease, and to agree on common practice. This has been based on the best available evidence obtained by a rigorous literature review and the authors' own experience with available drugs derived under very similar health care conditions. Preparation of this consensus document included an initial meeting to agree upon the core agenda, a systematic literature review with subsequent formulation of a consensus and determination of the evidence level followed by collecting the level of agreement from the panel members. In addition to overarching principles, the panel have focused on the treatment of major SLE organ manifestations (lupus nephritis, arthritis, lung disease, neuropsychiatric and haematological manifestations, antiphospholipid syndrome and serositis). This consensus report is intended to support clinicians involved in the care of patients with difficult courses of SLE not responding to standard therapies by providing up-to-date information on the best available evidence.