How many facets are needed to represent the surface energy balance of an urban area?

We investigate the question of how many facets are needed to represent the energy balance of an urban area by developing simplified 3-, 2- and 1-facet versions of a 4-facet energy balance model of two-dimensional streets and buildings. The 3-facet model simplifies the 4-facet model by averaging over the canyon orientation, which results in similar net shortwave and longwave balances for both wall facets, but maintains the asymmetry in the heat fluxes within the street canyon. For the 2-facet model, on the assumption that the wall and road temperatures are equal, the road and wall facets can be combined mathematically into a single street-canyon facet with effective values of the heat transfer coefficient, albedo, emissivity and thermodynamic properties, without further approximation. The 1-facet model requires the additional assumption that the roof temperature is also equal to the road and wall temperatures. Idealised simulations show that the geometry and material properties of the walls and road lead to a large heat capacity of the combined street canyon, whereas the roof behaves like a flat surface with low heat capacity. This means that the magnitude of the diurnal temperature variation of the street-canyon facets are broadly similar and much smaller than the diurnal temperature variation of the roof facets. Consequently, the approximation that the street-canyon facets have similar temperatures is sound, and the road and walls can be combined into a single facet. The roof behaves very differently and a separate roof facet is required. Consequently, the 2-facet model performs similarly to the 4-facet model, while the 1-facet model does not. The models are compared with previously published observations collected in Mexico City. Although the 3- and 2-facet models perform better than the 1-facet model, the present models are unable to represent the phase of the sensible heat flux. This result is consistent with previous model comparisons, and we argue that this feature of the data cannot be produced by a single column model. We conclude that a 2-facet model is necessary, and for numerical weather prediction sufficient, to model an urban surface, and that this conclusion is robust and therefore applicable to more general geometries.

Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation

We describe a new methodology for comparing satellite radiation budget data with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This is applied to data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on Meteosat-8. The methodology brings together, in near-real time, GERB broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes with simulations based on analyses produced by the Met Office global NWP model. Results for the period May 2003 to February 2005 illustrate the progressive improvements in the data products as various initial problems were resolved. In most areas the comparisons reveal systematic errors in the model's representation of surface properties and clouds, which are discussed elsewhere. However, for clear-sky regions over the oceans the model simulations are believed to be sufficiently accurate to allow the quality of the GERB fluxes themselves to be assessed and any changes in time of the performance of the instrument to be identified. Using model and radiosonde profiles of temperature and humidity as input to a single-column version of the model's radiation code, we conduct sensitivity experiments which provide estimates of the expected model errors over the ocean of about ±5–10 W m−2 in clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ±0.01 in clear-sky albedo. For the more recent data the differences between the observed and modeled OLR and albedo are well within these error estimates. The close agreement between the observed and modeled values, particularly for the most recent period, illustrates the value of the methodology. It also contributes to the validation of the GERB products and increases confidence in the quality of the data, prior to their release.

The role of nonhydrostatic dynamics in controlling development of a surface ocean front

Numerical studies of surface ocean fronts forced by inhomogeneous buoyancy loss show nonhydrostatic convective plumes coexisting with baroclinic eddies. The character of the vertical overturning depends sensitively on the treatment of the vertical momentum equation in the model. It is less well known how the frontal evolution over scales of O(10 km) is affected by these dynamics. Here, we compare highly resolved numerical experiments using nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic models and the convective-adjustment parametrization. The impact of nonhydrostatic processes on average cross-frontal transfer is weak compared to the effect of the O(1 km) scale baroclinic motions. For water-mass distribution and formation rate nonhydrostatic dynamics have similar influence to the baroclinic eddies although adequate resolution of the gradients in forcing fluxes is more important. The overall implication is that including nonhydrostatic surface frontal dynamics in ocean general circulation models will have only a minor effect on scales of O(1 km) and greater.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments

[1] We present a new, process-based model of soil and stream water dissolved organic carbon (DOC): the Integrated Catchments Model for Carbon (INCA-C). INCA-C is the first model of DOC cycling to explicitly include effects of different land cover types, hydrological flow paths, in-soil carbon biogeochemistry, and surface water processes on in-stream DOC concentrations. It can be calibrated using only routinely available monitoring data. INCA-C simulates daily DOC concentrations over a period of years to decades. Sources, sinks, and transformation of solid and dissolved organic carbon in peat and forest soils, wetlands, and streams as well as organic carbon mineralization in stream waters are modeled. INCA-C is designed to be applied to natural and seminatural forested and peat-dominated catchments in boreal and temperate regions. Simulations at two forested catchments showed that seasonal and interannual patterns of DOC concentration could be modeled using climate-related parameters alone. A sensitivity analysis showed that model predictions were dependent on the mass of organic carbon in the soil and that in-soil process rates were dependent on soil moisture status. Sensitive rate coefficients in the model included those for organic carbon sorption and desorption and DOC mineralization in the soil. The model was also sensitive to the amount of litter fall. Our results show the importance of climate variability in controlling surface water DOC concentrations and suggest the need for further research on the mechanisms controlling production and consumption of DOC in soils.

Perturbed Rankine vortices in surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics

An analytical dispersion relation is derived for linear perturbations to a Rankine vortex governed by surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics. Such a Rankine vortex is a circular region of uniform anomalous surface temperature evolving under quasi-geostrophic dynamics with uniform interior potential vorticity. The dispersion relation is analysed in detail and compared to the more familiar dispersion relation for a perturbed Rankine vortex governed by the Euler equations. The results are successfully verified against numerical simulations of the full equations. The dispersion relation is relevant to problems including wave propagation on surface temperature fronts and the stability of vortices in quasi-geostrophic turbulence.

Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.

Observations and modeling of banded orographic convection

Radar images and numerical simulations of three shallow convective precipitation events over the Coastal Range in western Oregon are presented. In one of these events, unusually well-defined quasi-stationary banded formations produced large precipitation enhancements in favored locations, while varying degrees of band organization and lighter precipitation accumulations occurred in the other two cases. The difference between the more banded and cellular cases appeared to depend on the vertical shear within the orographic cap cloud and the susceptibility of the flow to convection upstream of the mountain. Numerical simulations showed that the rainbands, which appeared to be shear-parallel convective roll circulations that formed within the unstable orographic cap cloud, developed even over smooth mountains. However, these banded structures were better organized, more stationary, and produced greater precipitation enhancement over mountains with small-scale topographic obstacles. Low-amplitude random topographic roughness elements were found to be just as effective as more prominent subrange-scale peaks at organizing and fixing the location of the orographic rainbands.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

Investigation of the prototype silylene reaction, SiH2+H2O(and D2O): time-resolved gas-phase kinetic studies, isotope effects, RRKM calculations, and quantum chemical calculations of the reaction energy surface

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, with H2O and with D2O have been carried out in the gas phase at 296 and at 339 K, using laser flash photolysis to generate and monitor SiH2. The reaction was studied over the pressure range 10-200 Torr with SF6 as bath gas. The second-order rate constants obtained were pressure dependent, indicating that the reaction is a third-body assisted association process. Rate constants at 339 K were about half those at 296 K. Isotope effects, k(H)/k(D), were small averaging 1.076 0.080, suggesting no involvement of H- (or D-) atom transfer in the rate determining step. RRKM modeling was undertaken based on a transition state appropriate to formation of the expected zwitterionic donoracceptor complex, H2Si...OH2. Because the reaction is close to the low pressure (third order) region, it is difficult to be definitive about the activated complex structure. Various structures were tried, both with and without the incorporation of rotational modes, leading to values for the high-pressure limiting (i.e., true secondorder) rate constant in the range 9.5 x 10(-11) to 5 x 10(-10) cm(3) molecule' s(-1). The RRKM modeling and mechanistic interpretation is supported by ab initio quantum calculations carried out at the G2 and G3 levels. The results are compared and contrasted with the previous studies.

Hydrogen spillover on carbon-supported metal catalysts studied by inelastic neutron scattering. Surface vibrational states and hydrogen riding modes

Hydrogen spillover on carbon-supported precious metal catalysts has been investigated with inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectroscopy. The aim, which was fully realized, was to identify spillover hydrogen on the carbon support. The inelastic neutron scattering spectra of Pt/C, Ru/C, and PtRu/C fuel cell catalysts dosed with hydrogen were determined in two sets of experiments: with the catalyst in the neutron beam and, using an annular cell, with carbon in the beam and catalyst pellets at the edge of the cell excluded from the beam. The vibrational modes observed in the INS spectra were assigned with reference to the INS of a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, coronene, taken as a molecular model of a graphite layer, and with the aid of computational modeling. Two forms of spillover hydrogen were identified: H at edge sites of a graphite layer (formed after ambient dissociative chemisorption of H-2), and a weakly bound layer of mobile H atoms (formed by surface diffusion of H atoms after dissociative chernisorption of H-2 at 500 K). The INS spectra exhibited characteristic riding modes of H on carbon and on Pt or Ru. In these riding modes H atoms move in phase with vibrations of the carbon and metal lattices. The lattice modes are amplified by neutron scattering from the H atoms attached to lattice atoms. Uptake of hydrogen, and spillover, was greater for the Ru containing catalysts than for the Pt/C catalyst. The INS experiments have thus directly demonstrated H spillover to the carbon support of these metal catalysts.

A shock capturing scheme for steady, supercritical, free-surface flow

Abstract A finite difference scheme is presented for the solution of the two-dimensional shallow water equations in steady, supercritical flow. The scheme incorporates numerical characteristic decomposition, is shock capturing by design and incorporates space-marching as a result of the assumption that the flow is wholly supercritical in at least one space dimension. Results are shown for problems involving oblique hydraulic jumps and reflection from a wall.

Ocean acoustic models for low frequency propagation in 2D and 3D environments

In this paper we are mainly concerned with the development of efficient computer models capable of accurately predicting the propagation of low-to-middle frequency sound in the sea, in axially symmetric (2D) and in fully 3D environments. The major physical features of the problem, i.e. a variable bottom topography, elastic properties of the subbottom structure, volume attenuation and other range inhomogeneities are efficiently treated. The computer models presented are based on normal mode solutions of the Helmholtz equation on the one hand, and on various types of numerical schemes for parabolic approximations of the Helmholtz equation on the other. A new coupled mode code is introduced to model sound propagation in range-dependent ocean environments with variable bottom topography, where the effects of an elastic bottom, of volume attenuation, surface and bottom roughness are taken into account. New computer models based on finite difference and finite element techniques for the numerical solution of parabolic approximations are also presented. They include an efficient modeling of the bottom influence via impedance boundary conditions, they cover wide angle propagation, elastic bottom effects, variable bottom topography and reverberation effects. All the models are validated on several benchmark problems and versus experimental data. Results thus obtained were compared with analogous results from standard codes in the literature.

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.