Advancing impact prediction and hypothesis testing in invasion ecology using a comparative functional response approach

Invasion ecology urgently requires predictive methodologies that can forecast the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and potential invasive species. We argue that many ecologically damaging invaders are characterised by their more efficient use of resources. Consequently, comparison of the classical ‘functional response’ (relationship between resource use and availability) between invasive and trophically analogous native species may allow prediction of invader ecological impact. We review the utility of species trait comparisons and the history and context of the use of functional responses in invasion ecology, then present our framework for the use of comparative functional responses. We show that functional response analyses, by describing the resource use of species over a range of resource availabilities, avoids many pitfalls of ‘snapshot’ assessments of resource use. Our framework demonstrates how comparisons of invader and native functional responses, within and between Type II and III functional responses, allow testing of the likely population-level outcomes of invasions for affected species. Furthermore, we describe how recent studies support the predictive capacity of this method; for example, the invasive ‘bloody red shrimp’ Hemimysis anomala shows higher Type II functional responses than native mysids and this corroborates, and could have predicted, actual invader impacts in the field. The comparative functional response method can also be used to examine differences in the impact of two or more invaders, two or more populations of the same invader, and the abiotic (e.g. temperature) and biotic (e.g. parasitism) context-dependencies of invader impacts. Our framework may also address the previous lack of rigour in testing major hypotheses in invasion ecology, such as the ‘enemy release’ and ‘biotic resistance’ hypotheses, as our approach explicitly considers demographic consequences for impacted resources, such as native and invasive prey species. We also identify potential challenges in the application of comparative functional responses in invasion ecology. These include incorporation of numerical responses, multiple predator effects and trait-mediated indirect interactions, replacement versus non-replacement study designs and the inclusion of functional responses in risk assessment frameworks. In future, the generation of sufficient case studies for a meta-analysis could test the overall hypothesis that comparative functional responses can indeed predict invasive species impacts.

Neonatal Pain-Related Stress and NFKBIA Genotype Are Associated with Altered Cortisol Levels in Preterm Boys at School Age

Neonatal pain-related stress is associated with elevated salivary cortisol levels to age 18 months in children born very preterm, compared to full-term, suggesting early programming effects. Importantly, interactions between immune/inflammatory and neuroendocrine systems may underlie programming effects. We examined whether cortisol changes persist to school age, and if common genetic variants in the promoter region of the NFKBIA gene involved in regulation of immune and inflammatory responses, modify the association between early experience and later life stress as indexed by hair cortisol levels, which provide an integrated index of endogenous HPA axis activity. Cortisol was assayed in hair samples from 128 children (83 born preterm =32 weeks gestation and 45 born full-term) without major sensory, motor or cognitive impairments at age 7 years. We found that hair cortisol levels were lower in preterm compared to term-born children. Downregulation of the HPA axis in preterm children without major impairment, seen years after neonatal stress terminated, suggests persistent alteration of stress system programming. Importantly, the etiology was gender-specific such that in preterm boys but not girls, specifically those with the minor allele for NFKBIA rs2233409, lower hair cortisol was associated with greater neonatal pain (number of skin-breaking procedures from birth to term), independent of medical confounders. Moreover, the minor allele (CT or TT) of NFKBIA rs2233409 was associated with higher secretion of inflammatory cytokines, supporting the hypothesis that neonatal pain-related stress may act as a proinflammatory stimulus that induces long-term immune cell activation. These findings are the first evidence that a long-term association between early pain-related stress and cortisol may be mediated by a genetic variants that regulate the activity of NF-?B, suggesting possible involvement of stress/inflammatory mechanisms in HPA programming in boys born very preterm. © 2013 Grunau et al.

Who Feels Inferior? A Test of the Status Anxiety Hypothesis of Social Inequalities in Health

The empirical association between income inequality, population health and other social problems is now well established and the research literature suggests that the relationship is not artefactual. Debate is still ongoing as to the cause of this association. Wilkinson, Marmot and colleagues have argued for some time that the relationship stems from the psycho-social effects of status comparisons. Here, income inequality is a marker of a wider status hierarchy that provokes an emotional stress response in individuals that is harmful to health and well-being. We label this the ‘status anxiety hypothesis’. If true, this would imply a structured relationship between income inequality at the societal level, individual income rank and anxiety relating to social status. This paper sets out strong and weak forms of the hypothesis and then presents three predictions concerning the structuring of ‘status anxiety’ at the individual level given different levels of national income inequality and varying individual income. We then test these predictions using data from a cross-national survey of over 34,000 individuals carried out in 2007 in 31 European countries. Respondents from low inequality countries reported less status anxiety than those in higher inequality countries at all points on the income rank curve. This is an important precondition of support for the status anxiety hypothesis and may be seen as providing support for the weaker version of the hypothesis. However, we do not find evidence to support the stronger version of the hypothesis which requires the negative effect of income rank on status anxiety to be exacerbated by increasing income inequality.

Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Consensus and Confusion in Molluscan Trees: Evaluating Morphological and Molecular Phylogenies

Mollusks are the most morphologically disparate living animal phylum, they have diversified into all habitats, and have a deep fossil record. Monophyly and identity of their eight living classes is undisputed, but relationships between these groups and patterns of their early radiation have remained elusive. Arguments about traditional morphological phylogeny focus on a small number of topological concepts but often without regard to proximity of the individual classes. In contrast, molecular studies have proposed a number of radically different, inherently contradictory, and controversial sister relationships. Here, we assembled a dataset of 42 unique published trees describing molluscan interrelationships. We used these data to ask several questions about the state of resolution of molluscan phylogeny compared to a null model of the variation possible in random trees constructed from a monophyletic assemblage of eight terminals. Although 27 different unique trees have been proposed from morphological inference, the majority of these are not statistically different from each other. Within the available molecular topologies, only four studies to date have included the deep-sea class Monoplacophora; but 36.4% of all trees are not significantly different. We also present supertrees derived from 2 data partitions and 3 methods, including all available molecular molluscan phylogenies, which will form the basis for future hypothesis testing. The supertrees presented here were not constructed to provide yet another hypothesis of molluscan relationships, but rather to algorithmically evaluate the relationships present in the disparate published topologies. Based on the totality of available evidence, certain patterns of relatedness among constituent taxa become clear. The internodal distance is consistently short between a few taxon pairs, particularly supporting the relatedness of Monoplacophora and the chitons, Polyplacophora. Other taxon pairs are rarely or never found in close proximity, such as the vermiform Caudofoveata and Bivalvia. Our results have specific utility for guiding constructive research planning in order to better test relationships in Mollusca as well as other problematic groups. Taxa with consistently proximate relationships should be the focus of a combined approach in a concerted assessment of potential genetic and anatomical homology, while unequivocally distant taxa will make the most constructive choices for exemplar selection in higher-level phylogenomic analyses.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

The Imagined Contact Hypothesis

Imagined intergroup contact (Crisp & Turner, 2009) is a new indirect contact strategy for promoting tolerance and more positive intergroup relations. Research has shown that mentally simulating a positive interaction with an outgroup member can elicit more favorable explicit and implicit outgroup attitudes, less stereotyping, and enhance intentions to engage in future contact. This review documents the range of benefits that accrue from imagined contact, the processes through which it operates, and the conditions that limit or enhance its effectiveness. Studies have shown when, how, and why imagining contact reduces prejudice against a range of different target groups, and how it can be integrated with existing contact-based approaches to provide maximally effective strategies for improving intergroup relations. The approach is not without its critics, and this review addresses the controversies and debates stimulated by imagined contact theory and research. The review concludes with a discussion of the value that imagery techniques can bring to implementations of contact theory, and how the approach offers a new, flexible, and effective tool for practitioners and policy makers in their efforts to promote, encourage, and enhance more harmonious intergroup relations.

Exome sequencing of prostate cancer supports the hypothesis of independent tumour origins

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PCa) is a clinically and pathologically heterogeneous disease. The rapid development of sequencing technology has the potential to deliver new biomarkers with emphasis on aggressive disease and to revolutionise personalised cancer treatment. However, a prostate harbouring cancer commonly contains multiple separate tumour foci, with the potential to aggravate tumour sampling. The level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity through genome-wide, high-resolution profiling of multiple tumour samples from the same individual.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multiple tumour samples were obtained from four individuals following radical prostatectomy. One individual (SWE-1) contained >70% cancer cells in all tumour samples, whereas the other three (SWE-2 to SWE-4) required the use of laser capture microdissection for tumour cell enrichment. Subsequently, DNA was extracted from all tissue samples, and exome sequencing was performed. All tumour foci of SWE-1 were also profiled using a high-resolution array for the identification of copy number alterations (CNA).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Shared somatic high-frequency single nucleotide variants (SNV) and CNAs were used to infer the level of intraprostatic tumour heterogeneity.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: No high-frequency mutations, common for the three tumour samples of SWE-1, were identified. Ten randomly chosen positions were validated with Sanger sequencing in all foci, which verified the exome data. The high level of intraprostatic heterogeneity was consistent in all individuals. In total, three out of four individuals harboured tumours without an apparent common somatic denominator. Although we cannot exclude the presence of common structural rearrangements, a high-density array was used for the detection of deletions and amplifications in SWE-1, which agreed with the exome data.

CONCLUSIONS: We present evidence for the presence of somatically independent tumours within the same prostate. This finding will have implications for personalised cancer treatment and biomarker discovery.

A historical approach to the new secular stagnation hypothesis

In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.