Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

Hormonal factors and insulin-like growth factor-1 in North American postmenopausal women

Background: Mechanisms underlying the effect of estrogen exposure on breast cancer risk remain unclear. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels have been positively associated with breast cancer and are a potential mechanism. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) to explore whether the reproductive risk factors and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles (LCMC), as measures for long-term estrogen exposure, are associated with IGF-1 levels, and 2) to examine the effect of an aromatase inhibitor (AI) on IGF-1 levels, and the potential interaction with BMI. Methods: A cross sectional study and a randomized controlled trial nested with the MAP.3 chemoprevention trial were used to address objective 1 and 2, respectively. 567 postmenopausal women were selected. Anthropometric measurements, lifestyle factors, reproductive characteristics and serum IGF-1 concentrations were collected at baseline and one year. Objective 1. The LCMC was computed as a composite measure of the reproductive characteristics. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between IGF-1 levels and LCMC and the hormonal risk factors, while adjusting for potential covariates. Objective 2. Changes in IGF-1 were compared between the exemestane and placebo, and effect modification by BMI was tested with an interaction term. Results: Objective 1. Women aged 55 years or older at menopause had 16.26 ng/mL (95% CI: 1.76, 30.75) higher IGF-1 compared to women aged less than 50 years at menopause. Women in the highest category of menstrual cycles (≥500 cycles) had an average 19.00 ng/mL (95%CI: 5.86, 32.14) higher concentration of IGF-1 compared to women in the lowest category (<350). Exogenous hormones had no effect on postmenopausal IGF-1 levels. Objective 2. Exemestane significantly increased IGF-1 levels by 18% (95% CI: 14%-22%); while, placebo had no effect on IGF-1. The changes in IGF-1 were significantly different between the treatment arms (P<0.0001) and no significant interaction was observed between treatment and BMI on IGF-1 changes (P=0.1327). Conclusion: Objective 1. Larger number of menstrual cycles and a later age at menopause are positively associated with IGF-1. IGF-1 may be one mechanism by which prolonged estrogen exposure increases cancer risk. Objective 2. We conclude that the reduced cancer risk observed with AI therapy likely occurs in an IGF-1 independent mechanism. Further studies exploring the clinical consequences of increased IGF-1 on AI therapy are needed.

North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013

Ten GPS-Met stations were installed in northwest Mexico from June - September 2013. Each station included a Trimble NetR9 GPS receiver for PWV and a Vaisala WXT520 surface meteorological package measuring wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, pressure and precipitation. The geographic location, elevation and data period for each station are provided in Serra et al. (2016). The GPS receiver at Rayon failed on July 16, 21 days after installation, thus these data are not included in the archive but are available upon request (yserra@uw.edu). Data include 1-min surface meteorological variables, while the GPS PWV is calculated at 5-min intervals. A full description of the experiment can be found in Serra et al., 2016: Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00250.1.

Burned Area Mapping in the North American Boreal Forest Using Terra-MODIS LTDR (2001–2011): A Comparison with the MCD45A1, MCD64A1 and BA GEOLAND-2 Products

An algorithm based on a Bayesian network classifier was adapted to produce 10-day burned area (BA) maps from the Long Term Data Record Version 3 (LTDR) at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (~5 km) for the North American boreal region from 2001 to 2011. The modified algorithm used the Brightness Temperature channel from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) band 31 T31 (11.03 μm) instead of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) band T3 (3.75 μm). The accuracy of the BA-LTDR, the Collection 5.1 MODIS Burned Area (MCD45A1), the MODIS Collection 5.1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area (MCD64A1) and the Burned Area GEOLAND-2 (BA GEOLAND-2) products was assessed using reference data from the Alaska Fire Service (AFS) and the Canadian Forest Service National Fire Database (CFSNFD). The linear regression analysis of the burned area percentages of the MCD64A1 product using 40 km × 40 km grids versus the reference data for the years from 2001 to 2011 showed an agreement of R2 = 0.84 and a slope = 0.76, while the BA-LTDR showed an agreement of R2 = 0.75 and a slope = 0.69. These results represent an improvement over the MCD45A1 product, which showed an agreement of R2 = 0.67 and a slope = 0.42. The MCD64A1, BA-LTDR and MCD45A1 products underestimated the total burned area in the study region, whereas the BA GEOLAND-2 product overestimated it by approximately five-fold, with an agreement of R2 = 0.05. Despite MCD64A1 showing the best overall results, the BA-LTDR product proved to be an alternative for mapping burned areas in the North American boreal forest region compared with the other global BA products, even those with higher spatial/spectral resolution

Acuerdo de libre comercio entre Colombia y la NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area)

La Iniciativa de las Américas (Enterprise for the Americas) propone la creación de un área de libre comercio para el continente americano, partiendo de la base del acuerdo NAFTA (North American Free Trade Área) próximo a concretarse y del cual formarían parte los Estados Unidos, Canadá y México.

Proceedings from North American Symposium on Knowledge Organization, Vol. 3

In this volume are represented the proceedings of the Third North American Symposium on Knowledge Organization held at Ryerson University in Toronto Canada on June 16-17, 2011. It contains 21 papers and one abstract.

Revision of the North American and West Indian species of Cuscuta ...

Vita.

Catalogue of the "Davenport herbarium" of North American ferns, north of Mexico.

"Some comparative tables showing the distribution of ferns in the United States of North America. By George E. Davenport" (605-612p., extracted from Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, v.20) inserterted at end.

The North American Indian in the World War /

Relief shown by hachures.

Discrimination in the Private Sphere. A subjective Right or a Legal Abuse. An European North American Legal Comparative Study

En el presente trabajo se estudian los límites de la autonomía privada desde la perspectiva del derecho a la igualdad y del principio de no discriminación tanto en el derecho norteamericano como en el europeo, con especial incidencia a la doctrina española. Por un lado se plantea si la piedra angular a la hora de establecer límites a la autonomía privada debe ser el concepto de dignidad o el de igualdad, por otro superando dicho debate se propone un acercamiento al problema entendido como una colisión entre derechos fundamentales en la que en cada concreto supuesto ha de estudiarse cual debe prevalecer. Finalmente se estima conveniente seguir el modelo de la Constitución de Sudáfrica y entender que los derechos fundamentales afectan directamente tanto a las relaciones horizontales como verticales, es decir tanto al ámbito público como privado.

GENETIC VARIATION, LOCAL ADAPTATION AND POPULATION STRUCTURE IN NORTH AMERICAN RED OAK SPECIES, QUERCUS RUBRA L. AND Q. ELLIPSOIDALIS E. J. HILL

Forest trees, like oaks, rely on high levels of genetic variation to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Thus, genetic variation and its distribution are important for the long-term survival and adaptability of oak populations. Climate change is projected to lead to increased drought and fire events as well as a northward migration of tree species, including oaks. Additionally, decline in oak regeneration has become increasingly concerning since it may lead to decreased gene flow and increased inbreeding levels. This will in turn lead to lowered levels of genetic diversity, negatively affecting the growth and survival of populations. At the same time, populations at the species’ distribution edge, like those in this study, could possess important stores of genetic diversity and adaptive potential, while also being vulnerable to climatic or anthropogenic changes. A survey of the level and distribution of genetic variation and identification of potentially adaptive genes is needed since adaptive genetic variation is essential for their long-term survival. Oaks possess a remarkable characteristic in that they maintain their species identity and specific environmental adaptations despite their propensity to hybridize. Thus, in the face of interspecific gene flow, some areas of the genome remain differentiated due to selection. This characteristic allows the study of local environmental adaptation through genetic variation analyses. Furthermore, using genic markers with known putative functions makes it possible to link those differentiated markers to potential adaptive traits (e.g., flowering time, drought stress tolerance). Demographic processes like gene flow and genetic drift also play an important role in how genes (including adaptive genes) are maintained or spread. These processes are influenced by disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic. An examination of how genetic variation is geographically distributed can display how these genetic processes and geographical disturbances influence genetic variation patterns. For example, the spatial clustering of closely related trees could promote inbreeding with associated negative effects (inbreeding depression), if gene flow is limited. In turn this can have negative consequences for a species’ ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, interspecific hybridization may also allow the transfer of genes between species that increase their adaptive potential in a changing environment. I have studied the ecologically divergent, interfertile red oaks, Quercus rubra and Q. ellipsoidalis, to identify genes with potential roles in adaptation to abiotic stress through traits such as drought tolerance and flowering time, and to assess the level and distribution of genetic variation. I found evidence for moderate gene flow between the two species and low interspecific genetic differences at most genetic markers (Lind and Gailing 2013). However, the screening of genic markers with potential roles in phenology and drought tolerance led to the identification of a CONSTANS-like (COL) gene, a candidate gene for flowering time and growth. This marker, located in the coding region of the gene, was highly differentiated between the two species in multiple geographical areas, despite interspecific gene flow, and may play a role in reproductive isolation and adaptive divergence between the two species (Lind-Riehl et al. 2014). Since climate change could result in a northward migration of trees species like oaks, this gene could be important in maintaining species identity despite increased contact zones between species (e.g., increased gene flow). Finally I examined differences in spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic variation between species and populations subjected to different management strategies and natural disturbances. Diverse management activities combined with various natural disturbances as well as species specific life history traits influenced SGS patterns and inbreeding levels (Lind-Riehl and Gailing submitted).

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

Declines of Aerial Insectivores in North America Follow a Geographic Gradient

North American birds that feed on aerial insects are experiencing widespread population declines. An analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey trend estimates for 1966 to 2006 suggests that declines in this guild are significantly stronger than in passerines in general. The pattern of decline also shows a striking geographical gradient, with aerial insectivore declines becoming more prevalent towards the northeast of North America. Declines are also more acute in species that migrate long distances compared to those that migrate short distances. The declines become manifest, almost without exception, in the mid 1980s. The taxonomic breadth of these downward trends suggests that declines in aerial insectivore populations are linked to changes in populations of flying insects, and these changes might be indicative of underlying ecosystem changes.

The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: land-sea contrast and orography

Understanding and predicting changes in storm tracks over longer time scales is a challenging problem, particularly in the North Atlantic. This is due in part to the complex range of forcings (land–sea contrast, orography, sea surface temperatures, etc.) that combine to produce the structure of the storm track. The impact of land–sea contrast and midlatitude orography on the North Atlantic storm track is investigated through a hierarchy of GCM simulations using idealized and “semirealistic” boundary conditions in a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3). This framework captures the large-scale essence of features such as the North and South American continents, Eurasia, and the Rocky Mountains, enabling the results to be applied more directly to realistic modeling situations than was possible with previous idealized studies. The physical processes by which the forcing mechanisms impact the large-scale flow and the midlatitude storm tracks are discussed. The characteristics of the North American continent are found to be very important in generating the structure of the North Atlantic storm track. In particular, the southwest–northeast tilt in the upper tropospheric jet produced by southward deflection of the westerly flow incident on the Rocky Mountains leads to enhanced storm development along an axis close to that of the continent’s eastern coastline. The approximately triangular shape of North America also enables a cold pool of air to develop in the northeast, intensifying the surface temperature contrast across the eastern coastline, consistent with further enhancements of baroclinicity and storm growth along the same axis.

Pb isotopes in individual sand-sized (>150 µm) ice-rafted feldspars deposited at subpolar North Atlantic Ocean Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 611 during the late Pliocene (Marine Isotope Stages, MIS, G6 through 100)

The onset of abundant ice-rafted debris (IRD) deposition in the Nordic Seas and subpolar North Atlantic Ocean 2.72 millions of years ago (Ma) is thought to record the Pliocene onset of major northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) due to a synchronous advance of North American Laurentide, Scandinavian and Greenland ice-sheets to their marine calving margins during marine isotope stage (MIS) G6. Numerous marine and terrestrial records from the Nordic Seas region indicate that extensive ice sheets on Greenland and Scandinavia increased IRD inputs to these seas from 2.72 Ma. The timing of ice-sheet expansion on North America as tracked by IRD deposition in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, however, is less clear because both Europe and North America are potential sources for icebergs in this region. Moreover, cosmogenic-dating of terrestrial tills on North America indicate that the Laurentide Ice Sheet did not extend to ~39°N until 2.4 ±0.14 Ma, at least 180 ka after the onset of major IRD deposition at 2.72 Ma. To address this problem,we present the first detailed analysis of the geochemical provenance of individual sand-sized IRD deposited in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean between MIS G6 and 100 (~2.72-2.52 Ma). IRD provenance is assessed using laser ablation lead (Pb) isotope analyses of single ice-rafted (>150 mm) feldspar grains. To track when an ice-rafting setting consistent with major NHG first occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean during the Pliocene intensification of NHG (iNHG), we investigate when the Pb-isotope composition (206Pb/204Pb, 207Pb/204Pb, 208Pb/204Pb) of feldspars deposited at DSDP Site 611 first resembles that determined for IRD deposited at this site during MIS 100, the oldest glacial for which there exists convincing evidence for widespread glaciation of North America. Whilst Quaternary-magnitude IRD fluxes exist at Site 611 during glacials from 2.72 Ma, we find that the provenance of this IRD is not constant. Instead, we find that the Pb isotope composition of IRD at our study site is not consistent with major NHG until MIS G2 (2.64 Ma). We hypothesise that IRD deposition in the North Atlantic Ocean prior to MIS G2 was dominated by iceberg calving from Greenland and Scandinavia. We further suggest that the grounding line of continental ice on Northeast America may not have extended onto the continental shelf and calved significant numbers of icebergs to the North Atlantic Ocean during glacials until 2.64 Ma.