Simultaneous estimation of indirect and interaction effects using structural equation models

Interaction effects are usually modeled by means of moderated regression analysis. Structural equation models with non-linear constraints make it possible to estimate interaction effects while correcting for measurement error. From the various specifications, Jöreskog and Yang's (1996, 1998), likely the most parsimonious, has been chosen and further simplified. Up to now, only direct effects have been specified, thus wasting much of the capability of the structural equation approach. This paper presents and discusses an extension of Jöreskog and Yang's specification that can handle direct, indirect and interaction effects simultaneously. The model is illustrated by a study of the effects of an interactive style of use of budgets on both company innovation and performance

Nonlinear system identification using particle swarm optimisation tuned radial basis function models

A novel particle swarm optimisation (PSO) tuned radial basis function (RBF) network model is proposed for identification of non-linear systems. At each stage of orthogonal forward regression (OFR) model construction process, PSO is adopted to tune one RBF unit's centre vector and diagonal covariance matrix by minimising the leave-one-out (LOO) mean square error (MSE). This PSO aided OFR automatically determines how many tunable RBF nodes are sufficient for modelling. Compared with the-state-of-the-art local regularisation assisted orthogonal least squares algorithm based on the LOO MSE criterion for constructing fixed-node RBF network models, the PSO tuned RBF model construction produces more parsimonious RBF models with better generalisation performance and is often more efficient in model construction. The effectiveness of the proposed PSO aided OFR algorithm for constructing tunable node RBF models is demonstrated using three real data sets.

Linear-wavelet models applied to the identification of a two-link manipulator

This paper shows that a wavelet network and a linear term can be advantageously combined for the purpose of non linear system identification. The theoretical foundation of this approach is laid by proving that radial wavelets are orthogonal to linear functions. A constructive procedure for building such nonlinear regression structures, termed linear-wavelet models, is described. For illustration, sim ulation data are used to identify a model for a two-link robotic manipulator. The results show that the introduction of wavelets does improve the prediction ability of a linear model.

THE ALGEBRA OF NONLOCAL CHARGES IN NONLINEAR SIGMA-MODELS

We obtain the exact classical algebra obeyed by the conserved non-local charges in bosonic non-linear sigma models. Part of the computation is specialized for a symmetry group O(N). As it turns out the algebra corresponds to a cubic deformation of the Kac-Moody algebra. We generalize the results for the presence of a Wess-Zumino term. The algebra is very similar to the previous one, now containing a calculable correction of order one unit lower. The relation with Yangians and the role of the results in the context of Lie-Poisson algebras are also discussed.

Comparação entre os estimadores de mínimos quadrados ordinários e mínimos desvios absolutos em modelos de regressão linear simples -: uma aplicação na energia na agricultura

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Modelagem da produção acumulada de biogás em biodigestores tipo batelada segundo a porcentagem de inóculo adicionada utilizando os modelos de regressão não-linear de Gompertz e expoencial

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC): A New Concept to Improve the Dynamic Response of DC/DC Converters with Additional Energy Path

El desarrollo da las nuevas tecnologías permite a los ingenieros llevar al límite el funcionamiento de los circuitos integrados (Integrated Circuits, IC). Las nuevas generaciones de procesadores, DSPs o FPGAs son capaces de procesar la información a una alta velocidad, con un alto consumo de energía, o esperar en modo de baja potencia con el mínimo consumo posible. Esta gran variación en el consumo de potencia y el corto tiempo necesario para cambiar de un nivel al otro, afecta a las especificaciones del Módulo de Regulador de Tensión (Voltage Regulated Module, VRM) que alimenta al IC. Además, las características adicionales obligatorias, tales como adaptación del nivel de tensión (Adaptive Voltage Positioning, AVP) y escalado dinámico de la tensión (Dynamic Voltage Scaling, DVS), imponen requisitos opuestas en el diseño de la etapa de potencia del VRM. Para poder soportar las altas variaciones de los escalones de carga, el condensador de filtro de salida del VRM se ha de sobredimensionar, penalizando la densidad de energía y el rendimiento durante la operación de DVS. Por tanto, las actuales tendencias de investigación se centran en mejorar la respuesta dinámica del VRM, mientras se reduce el tamaño del condensador de salida. La reducción del condensador de salida lleva a menor coste y una prolongación de la vida del sistema ya que se podría evitar el uso de condensadores voluminosos, normalmente implementados con condensadores OSCON. Una ventaja adicional es que reduciendo el condensador de salida, el DVS se puede realizar más rápido y con menor estrés de la etapa de potencia, ya que la cantidad de carga necesaria para cambiar la tensión de salida es menor. El comportamiento dinámico del sistema con un control lineal (Control Modo Tensión, VMC, o Control Corriente de Pico, Peak Current Mode Control, PCMC,…) está limitado por la frecuencia de conmutación del convertidor y por el tamaño del filtro de salida. La reducción del condensador de salida se puede lograr incrementando la frecuencia de conmutación, así como incrementando el ancho de banda del sistema, y/o aplicando controles avanzados no-lineales. Usando esos controles, las variables del estado se saturan para conseguir el nuevo régimen permanente en un tiempo mínimo, así como el filtro de salida, más específicamente la pendiente de la corriente de la bobina, define la respuesta de la tensión de salida. Por tanto, reduciendo la inductancia de la bobina de salida, la corriente de bobina llega más rápido al nuevo régimen permanente, por lo que una menor cantidad de carga es tomada del condensador de salida durante el tránsito. El inconveniente de esa propuesta es que el rendimiento del sistema es penalizado debido al incremento de pérdidas de conmutación y las corrientes RMS. Para conseguir tanto la reducción del condensador de salida como el alto rendimiento del sistema, mientras se satisfacen las estrictas especificaciones dinámicas, un convertidor multifase es adoptado como estándar para aplicaciones VRM. Para asegurar el reparto de las corrientes entre fases, el convertidor multifase se suele implementar con control de modo de corriente. Para superar la limitación impuesta por el filtro de salida, la segunda posibilidad para reducir el condensador de salida es aplicar alguna modificación topológica (Topologic modifications) de la etapa básica de potencia para incrementar la pendiente de la corriente de bobina y así reducir la duración de tránsito. Como el transitorio se ha reducido, una menor cantidad de carga es tomada del condensador de salida bajo el mismo escalón de la corriente de salida, con lo cual, el condensador de salida se puede reducir para lograr la misma desviación de la tensión de salida. La tercera posibilidad para reducir el condensador de salida del convertidor es introducir un camino auxiliar de energía (additional energy path, AEP) para compensar el desequilibrio de la carga del condensador de salida reduciendo consecuentemente la duración del transitorio y la desviación de la tensión de salida. De esta manera, durante el régimen permanente, el sistema tiene un alto rendimiento debido a que el convertidor principal con bajo ancho de banda es diseñado para trabajar con una frecuencia de conmutación moderada para conseguir requisitos estáticos. Por otro lado, el comportamiento dinámico durante los transitorios es determinado por el AEP con un alto ancho de banda. El AEP puede ser implementado como un camino resistivo, como regulador lineal (Linear regulator, LR) o como un convertidor conmutado. Las dos primeras implementaciones proveen un mayor ancho de banda, acosta del incremento de pérdidas durante el transitorio. Por otro lado, la implementación del convertidor computado presenta menor ancho de banda, limitado por la frecuencia de conmutación, aunque produce menores pérdidas comparado con las dos anteriores implementaciones. Dependiendo de la aplicación, la implementación y la estrategia de control del sistema, hay una variedad de soluciones propuestas en el Estado del Arte (State-of-the-Art, SoA), teniendo diferentes propiedades donde una solución ofrece más ventajas que las otras, pero también unas desventajas. En general, un sistema con AEP ideal debería tener las siguientes propiedades: 1. El impacto del AEP a las pérdidas del sistema debería ser mínimo. A lo largo de la operación, el AEP genera pérdidas adicionales, con lo cual, en el caso ideal, el AEP debería trabajar por un pequeño intervalo de tiempo, solo durante los tránsitos; la otra opción es tener el AEP constantemente activo pero, por la compensación del rizado de la corriente de bobina, se generan pérdidas innecesarias. 2. El AEP debería ser activado inmediatamente para minimizar la desviación de la tensión de salida. Para conseguir una activación casi instantánea, el sistema puede ser informado por la carga antes del escalón o el sistema puede observar la corriente del condensador de salida, debido a que es la primera variable del estado que actúa a la perturbación de la corriente de salida. De esa manera, el AEP es activado con casi cero error de la tensión de salida, logrando una menor desviación de la tensión de salida. 3. El AEP debería ser desactivado una vez que el nuevo régimen permanente es detectado para evitar los transitorios adicionales de establecimiento. La mayoría de las soluciones de SoA estiman la duración del transitorio, que puede provocar un transitorio adicional si la estimación no se ha hecho correctamente (por ejemplo, si la corriente de bobina del convertidor principal tiene un nivel superior o inferior al necesitado, el regulador lento del convertidor principal tiene que compensar esa diferencia una vez que el AEP es desactivado). Otras soluciones de SoA observan las variables de estado, asegurando que el sistema llegue al nuevo régimen permanente, o pueden ser informadas por la carga. 4. Durante el transitorio, como mínimo un subsistema, o bien el convertidor principal o el AEP, debería operar en el lazo cerrado. Implementando un sistema en el lazo cerrado, preferiblemente el subsistema AEP por su ancho de banda elevado, se incrementa la robustez del sistema a los parásitos. Además, el AEP puede operar con cualquier tipo de corriente de carga. Las soluciones que funcionan en el lazo abierto suelen preformar el control de balance de carga con mínimo tiempo, así reducen la duración del transitorio y tienen un impacto menor a las pérdidas del sistema. Por otro lado, esas soluciones demuestran una alta sensibilidad a las tolerancias y parásitos de los componentes. 5. El AEP debería inyectar la corriente a la salida en una manera controlada, así se reduce el riesgo de unas corrientes elevadas y potencialmente peligrosas y se incrementa la robustez del sistema bajo las perturbaciones de la tensión de entrada. Ese problema suele ser relacionado con los sistemas donde el AEP es implementado como un convertidor auxiliar. El convertidor auxiliar es diseñado para una potencia baja, con lo cual, los dispositivos elegidos son de baja corriente/potencia. Si la corriente no es controlada, bajo un pico de tensión de entrada provocada por otro parte del sistema (por ejemplo, otro convertidor conectado al mismo bus), se puede llegar a un pico en la corriente auxiliar que puede causar la perturbación de tensión de salida e incluso el fallo de los dispositivos del convertidor auxiliar. Sin embargo, cuando la corriente es controlada, usando control del pico de corriente o control con histéresis, la corriente auxiliar tiene el control con prealimentación (feed-forward) de tensión de entrada y la corriente es definida y limitada. Por otro lado, si la solución utiliza el control de balance de carga, el sistema puede actuar de forma deficiente si la tensión de entrada tiene un valor diferente del nominal, provocando que el AEP inyecta/toma más/menos carga que necesitada. 6. Escalabilidad del sistema a convertidores multifase. Como ya ha sido comentado anteriormente, para las aplicaciones VRM por la corriente de carga elevada, el convertidor principal suele ser implementado como multifase para distribuir las perdidas entre las fases y bajar el estrés térmico de los dispositivos. Para asegurar el reparto de las corrientes, normalmente un control de modo corriente es usado. Las soluciones de SoA que usan VMC son limitadas a la implementación con solo una fase. Esta tesis propone un nuevo método de control del flujo de energía por el AEP y el convertidor principal. El concepto propuesto se basa en la inyección controlada de la corriente auxiliar al nodo de salida donde la amplitud de la corriente es n-1 veces mayor que la corriente del condensador de salida con las direcciones apropiadas. De esta manera, el AEP genera un condensador virtual cuya capacidad es n veces mayor que el condensador físico y reduce la impedancia de salida. Como el concepto propuesto reduce la impedancia de salida usando el AEP, el concepto es llamado Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept. El concepto se desarrolla para un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono multifase con control modo de corriente CMC (incluyendo e implementación con una fase) y puede operar con la tensión de salida constante o con AVP. Además, el concepto es extendido a un convertidor de una fase con control modo de tensión VMC. Durante la operación, el control de tensión de salida de convertidor principal y control de corriente del subsistema OICC están siempre cerrados, incrementando la robustez a las tolerancias de componentes y a los parásitos del cirquito y permitiendo que el sistema se pueda enfrentar a cualquier tipo de la corriente de carga. Según el método de control propuesto, el sistema se puede encontrar en dos estados: durante el régimen permanente, el sistema se encuentra en el estado Idle y el subsistema OICC esta desactivado. Por otro lado, durante el transitorio, el sistema se encuentra en estado Activo y el subsistema OICC está activado para reducir la impedancia de salida. El cambio entre los estados se hace de forma autónoma: el sistema entra en el estado Activo observando la corriente de condensador de salida y vuelve al estado Idle cunado el nuevo régimen permanente es detectado, observando las variables del estado. La validación del concepto OICC es hecha aplicándolo a un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono con dos fases y de 30W cuyo condensador de salida tiene capacidad de 140μF, mientras el factor de multiplicación n es 15, generando en el estado Activo el condensador virtual de 2.1mF. El subsistema OICC es implementado como un convertidor tipo reductor síncrono con PCMC. Comparando el funcionamiento del convertidor con y sin el OICC, los resultados demuestran que se ha logrado una reducción de la desviación de tensión de salida con factor 12, tanto con funcionamiento básico como con funcionamiento AVP. Además, los resultados son comparados con un prototipo de referencia que tiene la misma etapa de potencia y un condensador de salida físico de 2.1mF. Los resultados demuestran que los dos sistemas tienen el mismo comportamiento dinámico. Más aun, se ha cuantificado el impacto en las pérdidas del sistema operando bajo una corriente de carga pulsante y bajo DVS. Se demuestra que el sistema con OICC mejora el rendimiento del sistema, considerando las pérdidas cuando el sistema trabaja con la carga pulsante y con DVS. Por lo último, el condensador de salida de sistema con OICC es mucho más pequeño que el condensador de salida del convertidor de referencia, con lo cual, por usar el concepto OICC, la densidad de energía se incrementa. En resumen, las contribuciones principales de la tesis son: • El concepto propuesto de Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC), • El control a nivel de sistema basado en el método usado para cambiar los estados de operación, • La implementación del subsistema OICC en lazo cerrado conjunto con la implementación del convertidor principal, • La cuantificación de las perdidas dinámicas bajo la carga pulsante y bajo la operación DVS, y • La robustez del sistema bajo la variación del condensador de salida y bajo los escalones de carga consecutiva. ABSTRACT Development of new technologies allows engineers to push the performance of the integrated circuits to its limits. New generations of processors, DSPs or FPGAs are able to process information with high speed and high consumption or to wait in low power mode with minimum possible consumption. This huge variation in power consumption and the short time needed to change from one level to another, affect the specifications of the Voltage Regulated Module (VRM) that supplies the IC. Furthermore, additional mandatory features, such as Adaptive Voltage Positioning (AVP) and Dynamic Voltage Scaling (DVS), impose opposite trends on the design of the VRM power stage. In order to cope with high load-step amplitudes, the output capacitor of the VRM power stage output filter is drastically oversized, penalizing power density and the efficiency during the DVS operation. Therefore, the ongoing research trend is directed to improve the dynamic response of the VRM while reducing the size of the output capacitor. The output capacitor reduction leads to a smaller cost and longer life-time of the system since the big bulk capacitors, usually implemented with OSCON capacitors, may not be needed to achieve the desired dynamic behavior. An additional advantage is that, by reducing the output capacitance, dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) can be performed faster and with smaller stress on the power stage, since the needed amount of charge to change the output voltage is smaller. The dynamic behavior of the system with a linear control (Voltage mode control, VMC, Peak Current Mode Control, PCMC,…) is limited by the converter switching frequency and filter size. The reduction of the output capacitor can be achieved by increasing the switching frequency of the converter, thus increasing the bandwidth of the system, and/or by applying advanced non-linear controls. Applying nonlinear control, the system variables get saturated in order to reach the new steady-state in a minimum time, thus the output filter, more specifically the output inductor current slew-rate, determines the output voltage response. Therefore, by reducing the output inductor value, the inductor current reaches faster the new steady state, so a smaller amount of charge is taken from the output capacitor during the transient. The drawback of this approach is that the system efficiency is penalized due to increased switching losses and RMS currents. In order to achieve both the output capacitor reduction and high system efficiency, while satisfying strict dynamic specifications, a Multiphase converter system is adopted as a standard for VRM applications. In order to ensure the current sharing among the phases, the multiphase converter is usually implemented with current mode control. In order to overcome the limitation imposed by the output filter, the second possibility to reduce the output capacitor is to apply Topologic modifications of the basic power stage topology in order to increase the slew-rate of the inductor current and, therefore, reduce the transient duration. Since the transient is reduced, smaller amount of charge is taken from the output capacitor under the same load current, thus, the output capacitor can be reduced to achieve the same output voltage deviation. The third possibility to reduce the output capacitor of the converter is to introduce an additional energy path (AEP) to compensate the charge unbalance of the output capacitor, consequently reducing the transient time and output voltage deviation. Doing so, during the steady-state operation the system has high efficiency because the main low-bandwidth converter is designed to operate at moderate switching frequency, to meet the static requirements, whereas the dynamic behavior during the transients is determined by the high-bandwidth auxiliary energy path. The auxiliary energy path can be implemented as a resistive path, as a Linear regulator, LR, or as a switching converter. The first two implementations provide higher bandwidth, at the expense of increasing losses during the transient. On the other hand, the switching converter implementation presents lower bandwidth, limited by the auxiliary converter switching frequency, though it produces smaller losses compared to the two previous implementations. Depending on the application, the implementation and the control strategy of the system, there is a variety of proposed solutions in the State-of-the-Art (SoA), having different features where one solution offers some advantages over the others, but also some disadvantages. In general, an ideal additional energy path system should have the following features: 1. The impact on the system losses should be minimal. During its operation, the AEP generates additional losses, thus ideally, the AEP should operate for a short period of time, only when the transient is occurring; the other option is to have the AEP constantly on, but due to the inductor current ripple compensation at the output, unnecessary losses are generated. 2. The AEP should be activated nearly instantaneously to prevent bigger output voltage deviation. To achieve near instantaneous activation, the converter system can be informed by the load prior to the load-step or the system can observe the output capacitor current, which is the first system state variable that reacts on the load current perturbation. In this manner, the AEP is turned on with near zero output voltage error, providing smaller output voltage deviation. 3. The AEP should be deactivated once the new steady state is reached to avoid additional settling transients. Most of the SoA solutions estimate duration of the transient which may cause additional transient if the estimation is not performed correctly (e.g. if the main converter inductor current has higher or lower value than needed, the slow regulator of the main converter needs to compensate the difference after the AEP is deactivated). Other SoA solutions are observing state variables, ensuring that the system reaches the new steady state or they are informed by the load. 4. During the transient, at least one subsystem, either the main converter or the AEP, should be in closed-loop. Implementing a closed loop system, preferably the AEP subsystem, due its higher bandwidth, increases the robustness under system tolerances and circuit parasitic. In addition, the AEP can operate with any type of load. The solutions that operate in open loop usually perform minimum time charge balance control, thus reducing the transient length and minimizing the impact on the losses, however they are very sensitive to tolerances and parasitics. 5. The AEP should inject current at the output in a controlled manner, thus reducing the risk of high and potentially damaging currents and increasing robustness on the input voltage deviation. This issue is mainly related to the systems where AEP is implemented as auxiliary converter. The auxiliary converter is designed for small power and, as such, the MOSFETs are rated for small power/currents. If the current is not controlled, due to the some unpredicted spike in input voltage caused by some other part of the system (e.g. different converter), it may lead to a current spike in auxiliary current which will cause the perturbation of the output voltage and even failure of the switching components of auxiliary converter. In the case when the current is controlled, using peak CMC or Hysteretic Window CMC, the auxiliary converter has inherent feed-forwarding of the input voltage in current control and the current is defined and limited. Furthermore, if the solution employs charge balance control, the system may perform poorly if the input voltage has different value than the nominal, causing that AEP injects/extracts more/less charge than needed. 6. Scalability of the system to multiphase converters. As commented previously, in VRM applications, due to the high load currents, the main converters are implemented as multiphase to redistribute losses among the modules, lowering temperature stress of the components. To ensure the current sharing, usually a Current Mode Control (CMC) is employed. The SoA solutions that are implemented with VMC are limited to a single stage implementation. This thesis proposes a novel control method of the energy flow through the AEP and the main converter system. The proposed concept relays on a controlled injection of the auxiliary current at the output node where the instantaneous current value is n-1 times bigger than the output capacitor current with appropriate directions. Doing so, the AEP creates an equivalent n times bigger virtual capacitor at the output, thus reducing the output impedance. Due to the fact that the proposed concept reduces the output impedance using the AEP, it has been named the Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept. The concept is developed for a multiphase CMC synchronous buck converter (including a single phase implementation), operating with a constant output voltage and with AVP feature. Further, it is extended to a single phase VMC synchronous buck converter. During the operation, the main converter voltage loop and the OICC subsystem capacitor current loop is constantly closed, increasing the robustness under system tolerances and circuit parasitic and allowing the system to operate with any load-current shape or pattern. According to the proposed control method, the system operates in two states: during the steady-state the system is in the Idle state and the OICC subsystem is deactivated, while during the load-step transient the system is in the Active state and the OICC subsystem is activated in order to reduce the output impedance. The state changes are performed autonomously: the system enters in the Active state by observing the output capacitor current and it returns back to the Idle state when the steady-state operation is detected by observing the state variables. The validation of the OICC concept has been done by applying it to a 30W two phase synchronous buck converter with 140μF output capacitor and with the multiplication factor n equal to 15, generating during the Active state equivalent output capacitor of 2.1mF. The OICC subsystem is implemented as single phase PCMC synchronous buck converter. Comparing the converter operation with and without the OICC the results demonstrate that the 12 times reduction of the output voltage deviation is achieved, for both basic operation and for the AVP operation. Furthermore, the results have been compared to a reference prototype which has the same power stage and a fiscal output capacitor of 2.1mF. The results show that the two systems have the same dynamic behavior. Moreover, an impact on the system losses under the pulsating load and DVS operation has been quantified and it has been demonstrated that the OICC system has improved the system efficiency, considering the losses when the system operates with the pulsating load and the DVS operation. Lastly, the output capacitor of the OICC system is much smaller than the reference design output capacitor, therefore, by applying the OICC concept the power density can be increased. In summary, the main contributions of the thesis are: • The proposed Output Impedance Correction Circuit (OICC) concept, • The system level control based on the used approach to change the states of operation, • The OICC subsystem closed-loop implementation, together with the main converter implementation, • The dynamic losses under the pulsating load and the DVS operation quantification, and • The system robustness on the capacitor impedance variation and consecutive load-steps.

Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Global non-dynamic refinement of radial orbit error for altimetric earth satellites

The accuracy of altimetrically derived oceanographic and geophysical information is limited by the precision of the radial component of the satellite ephemeris. A non-dynamic technique is proposed as a method of reducing the global radial orbit error of altimetric satellites. This involves the recovery of each coefficient of an analytically derived radial error correction through a refinement of crossover difference residuals. The crossover data is supplemented by absolute height measurements to permit the retrieval of otherwise unobservable geographically correlated and linearly combined parameters. The feasibility of the radial reduction procedure is established upon application to the three day repeat orbit of SEASAT. The concept of arc aggregates is devised as a means of extending the method to incorporate longer durations, such as the 35 day repeat period of ERS-1. A continuous orbit is effectively created by including the radial misclosure between consecutive long arcs as an infallible observation. The arc aggregate procedure is validated using a combination of three successive SEASAT ephemerides. A complete simulation of the 501 revolution per 35 day repeat orbit of ERS-1 is derived and the recovery of the global radial orbit error over the full repeat period is successfully accomplished. The radial reduction is dependent upon the geographical locations of the supplementary direct height data. Investigations into the respective influences of various sites proposed for the tracking of ERS-1 by ground-based transponders are carried out. The potential effectiveness on the radial orbital accuracy of locating future tracking sites in regions of high latitudinal magnitude is demonstrated.

On the Error-Correcting Performance of some Binary and Ternary Linear Codes

In this work, we determine the coset weight spectra of all binary cyclic codes of lengths up to 33, ternary cyclic and negacyclic codes of lengths up to 20 and of some binary linear codes of lengths up to 33 which are distance-optimal, by using some of the algebraic properties of the codes and a computer assisted search. Having these weight spectra the monotony of the function of the undetected error probability after t-error correction P(t)ue (C,p) could be checked with any precision for a linear time. We have used a programm written in Maple to check the monotony of P(t)ue (C,p) for the investigated codes for a finite set of points of p € [0, p/(q-1)] and in this way to determine which of them are not proper.

Performance Analysis of Topological Quantum Error Correcting Codes

In the last few years there has been a great development of techniques like quantum computers and quantum communication systems, due to their huge potentialities and the growing number of applications. However, physical qubits experience a lot of nonidealities, like measurement errors and decoherence, that generate failures in the quantum computation. This work shows how it is possible to exploit concepts from classical information in order to realize quantum error-correcting codes, adding some redundancy qubits. In particular, the threshold theorem states that it is possible to lower the percentage of failures in the decoding at will, if the physical error rate is below a given accuracy threshold. The focus will be on codes belonging to the family of the topological codes, like toric, planar and XZZX surface codes. Firstly, they will be compared from a theoretical point of view, in order to show their advantages and disadvantages. The algorithms behind the minimum perfect matching decoder, the most popular for such codes, will be presented. The last section will be dedicated to the analysis of the performances of these topological codes with different error channel models, showing interesting results. In particular, while the error correction capability of surface codes decreases in presence of biased errors, XZZX codes own some intrinsic symmetries that allow them to improve their performances if one kind of error occurs more frequently than the others.

Comparison of some theoretical models for fittings of the temperature dependence of the fundamental energy gap in GaAs

In this work we report on a comparison of some theoretical models usually used to fit the dependence on temperature of the fundamental energy gap of semiconductor materials. We used in our investigations the theoretical models of Viña, Pässler-p and Pässler-ρ to fit several sets of experimental data, available in the literature for the energy gap of GaAs in the temperature range from 12 to 974 K. Performing several fittings for different values of the upper limit of the analyzed temperature range (Tmax), we were able to follow in a systematic way the evolution of the fitting parameters up to the limit of high temperatures and make a comparison between the zero-point values obtained from the different models by extrapolating the linear dependence of the gaps at high T to T = 0 K and that determined by the dependence of the gap on isotope mass. Using experimental data measured by absorption spectroscopy, we observed the non-linear behavior of Eg(T) of GaAs for T > ΘD.

A simple way to introduce fibers into FEM models

This communication proposes a simple way to introduce fibers into finite element modelling. This is a promising formulation to deal with fiber-reinforced composites by the finite element method (FEM), as it allows the consideration of short or long fibers placed arbitrarily inside a continuum domain (matrix). The most important feature of the formulation is that no additional degree of freedom is introduced into the pre-existent finite element numerical system to consider any distribution of fiber inclusions. In other words, the size of the system of equations used to solve a non-reinforced medium is the same as the one used to solve the reinforced counterpart. Another important characteristic is the reduced work required by the user to introduce fibers, avoiding `rebar` elements, node-by-node geometrical definitions or even complex mesh generation. An additional characteristic of the technique is the possibility of representing unbounded stresses at the end of fibers using a finite number of degrees of freedom. Further studies are required for non-linear applications in which localization may occur. Along the text the linear formulation is presented and the bounded connection between fibers and continuum is considered. Four examples are presented, including non-linear analysis, to validate and show the capabilities of the formulation. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.