Age over 40 years increases the failure rate of non-operative management of blunt splenic injuries

Objective: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries (BSI) is nowadays considered the standard treatment. The study aimed to determine the criteria applied for NOM and to identify risk factors for its failure. Methods: Review of all adult patients with BSI treated at the University Hospital Bern, Switzerland, between 2000 and 2008. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70·9%) with a mean age of 38·2 ± 19·1 years and an Injury Severity Score of 30·9 ± 11·6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n=43 (20·9%); grade II, n=52 (25·2%); grade III, n=60 (29·1%); grade IV, n=42 (20·4%) and grade V, n=9 (4·4%). 47 patients (22·8%) required immediate surgery. Five or more units of red cell transfusions (P<0·001), Glasgow Coma Scale<11 (P=0·009) and age ≥55 years (P=0·038) were associated with primary operative management (OM). 159 patients (77·2%) qualified for NOM, which was successful in 89·9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate was 69·4% (143/206). Multivariate analysis found age ≥40 years to be the only factor independently related to the failure of NOM (P=0·001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate ofNOM in patients with BSI.

The intra-generational redistributive effects of social security

This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the intra--cohortredistributive elements of the United States social security system in thecontext of a computable general equilibrium model. I determine how thewell--being of individuals that differ across {\sl gender, race} and {\sl education}is affected by government social security policy. I find that females, whitesand non--college graduates stand less to gain (lose) from reductions(increases) in the size of social security than males, non--whites andcollege graduates, respectively. Differences in mortality risk and laborproductivity translate into differences in the magnitudes of capitalaccumulation and labor supply distortions, that are responsible for theobserved welfare difference between types. Results imply that the currentprogram is lifetime progressive across gender and education, yet lifetimeregressive across race.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of emergency department frequent users in a universal health insurance system

Objectifs - Identifier les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux associés au recours multiple aux consultations des urgences. - Déterminer si les patients à recours multiple sont plus à même de combiner ces facteurs dans un système d'assurance universelle. Méthode Il s'agit d'une étude cas-contrôle rétrospective basée sur l'étude de dossiers médico-administratifs comparant des échantillons randomisés de patients à recours multiple à des patients n'appartenant pas à cette catégorie, au sein des urgences du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois et de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire de Lausanne. Les auteurs ont défini les patients à recours multiple comme comptabilisant au moins quatre consultations aux urgences durant les douze mois précédents. Les patients adultes (>18 ans) ayant consulté les urgences entre avril 2008 et mars 2009 (période d'étude) étaient inclus ; ceux quittant les urgences sans décharge médicale étaient exclus. Pour chaque patient, le premier dossier d'urgence informatisé inclus dans la période d'étude était sélectionné pour l'extraction des données. Outre les variables démographiques de base, les variables d'intérêt comprennent des caractéristiques sociales (emploi, type de résidence) et médicales (diagnostic principal aux urgences). Les facteurs sociaux et médicaux significatifs ont été utilisés dans la construction d'un modèle de régression logistique, afin de déterminer les facteurs associés avec le recours multiple aux urgences. De plus, la combinaison des facteurs sociaux et médicaux a été étudiée. Résultats Au total, 359/Γ591 patients à recours multiple et 360/34'263 contrôles ont été sélectionnés. Les patients à recours multiple représentaient moins d'un vingtième de tous les patients des urgences (4.4%), mais engendraient 12.1% de toutes les consultations (5'813/48'117), avec un record de 73 consultations. Aucune différence en termes d'âge ou de genre n'est apparue, mais davantage de patients à recours multiples étaient d'une nationalité autre que suisse ou européenne (n=117 [32.6%] vs n=83 [23.1%], p=0.003). L'analyse multivariée a montré que les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux les plus fortement associés au recours multiple aux urgences étaient : être sous tutelle (Odds ratio [OR] ajusté = 15.8; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95% = 1.7 à 147.3), habiter plus proche des urgences (OR ajusté = 4.6; IC95% = 2.8 à 7.6), être non assuré (OR ajusté = 2.5; IC95% = 1.1 à 5.8), être sans emploi ou dépendant de l'aide sociale (OR ajusté = 2.1; IC95% = 1.3 à 3.4), le nombre d'hospitalisations psychiatriques (OR ajusté = 4.6; IC95% = 1.5 à 14.1), ainsi que le recours à au moins cinq départements cliniques différents durant une période de douze mois (OR ajusté = 4.5; IC95% = 2.5 à 8.1). Le fait de comptabiliser deux sur quatre facteurs sociaux augmente la vraisemblance du recours multiple aux urgences (OR ajusté = 5.4; IC95% = 2.9 à 9.9) ; des résultats similaires ont été trouvés pour les facteurs médicaux (OR ajusté = 7.9; IC95% = 4.6 à 13.4). La combinaison de facteurs sociaux et médicaux est fortement associée au recours multiple aux urgences, puisque les patients à recours multiple étaient dix fois plus à même d'en comptabiliser trois d'entre eux (sur un total de huit facteurs, IC95% = 5.1 à 19.6). Conclusion Les patients à recours multiple aux urgences représentent une proportion modérée des consultations aux urgences du Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois et de la Policlinique Médicale Universitaire de Lausanne. Les facteurs de vulnérabilité sociaux et médicaux sont associés au recours multiple aux urgences. En outre, les patients à recours multiple sont plus à même de combiner les vulnérabilités sociale et médicale que les autres. Des stratégies basées sur le case management pourraient améliorer la prise en charge des patients à recours multiple avec leurs vulnérabilités afin de prévenir les inégalités dans le système de soins ainsi que les coûts relatifs.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Building a Social Accounting Matrix within the ESA95 Framework: Obtaining a Dataset for Applied General Equilibrium Modelling

This research provides a description of the process followed in order to assemble a "Social Accounting Matrix" for Spain corresponding to the year 2000 (SAMSP00). As argued in the paper, this process attempts to reconcile ESA95 conventions with requirements of applied general equilibrium modelling. Particularly, problems related to the level of aggregation of net taxation data, and to the valuation system used for expressing the monetary value of input-output transactions have deserved special attention. Since the adoption of ESA95 conventions, input-output transactions have been preferably valued at basic prices, which impose additional difficulties on modellers interested in computing applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses these difficulties by developing a procedure that allows SAM-builders to change the valuation system of input-output transactions conveniently. In addition, this procedure produces new data related to net taxation information.

ESCMID* guideline for the diagnosis and management of Candida diseases 2012: non-neutropenic adult patients.

This part of the EFISG guidelines focuses on non-neutropenic adult patients. Only a few of the numerous recommendations can be summarized in the abstract. Prophylactic usage of fluconazole is supported in patients with recent abdominal surgery and recurrent gastrointestinal perforations or anastomotic leakages. Candida isolation from respiratory secretions alone should never prompt treatment. For the targeted initial treatment of candidaemia, echinocandins are strongly recommended while liposomal amphotericin B and voriconazole are supported with moderate, and fluconazole with marginal strength. Treatment duration for candidaemia should be a minimum of 14 days after the end of candidaemia, which can be determined by one blood culture per day until negativity. Switching to oral treatment after 10 days of intravenous therapy has been safe in stable patients with susceptible Candida species. In candidaemia, removal of indwelling catheters is strongly recommended. If catheters cannot be removed, lipid-based amphotericin B or echinocandins should be preferred over azoles. Transoesophageal echocardiography and fundoscopy should be performed to detect organ involvement. Native valve endocarditis requires surgery within a week, while in prosthetic valve endocarditis, earlier surgery may be beneficial. The antifungal regimen of choice is liposomal amphotericin B +/- flucytosine. In ocular candidiasis, liposomal amphotericin B +/- flucytosine is recommended when the susceptibility of the isolate is unknown, and in susceptible isolates, fluconazole and voriconazole are alternatives. Amphotericin B deoxycholate is not recommended for any indication due to severe side effects.

Carbon balance and crop residue management in dynamic equilibrium under a no-till system in Campos Gerais

The adoption of no-tillage systems (NT) and the maintenance of crop residues on the soil surface result in the long-term increase of carbon (C) in the system, promoting C sequestration and reducing C-CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the C sequestration rate and the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain the dynamic C equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) of two soils (Typic Hapludox) with different textural classes. The experiment was arranged in a 2 x 2 x 2 randomized block factorial design. The following factors were analyzed: (a) two soil types: Typic Hapludox (Oxisol) with medium texture (LVTM) and Oxisol with clay texture (LVTA), (b) two sampling layers (0-5 and 5-20 cm), and (c) two sampling periods (P1 - October 2007; P2 - September 2008). Samples were collected from fields under a long-term (20 years) NT system with the following crop rotations: wheat/soybean/black oat + vetch/maize (LVTM) and wheat/maize/black oat + vetch/soybean (LVTA). The annual C sequestration rates were 0.83 and 0.76 Mg ha-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The estimates of the minimum amount of crop residues required to maintain a dynamic equilibrium (dC/dt = 0) were 7.13 and 6.53 Mg ha-1 year-1 for LVTM and LVTA, respectively. The C conversion rate in both studied soils was lower than that reported in other studies in the region, resulting in a greater amount of crop residues left on the soil surface.

Advanced age increases the failure rate of non-operative management of blunt splenic injuries

Introduction: Non-operative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injuries in hemodynamically stable patients is nowadays considered the standard treatment. Material and Methods: The aim was to clarify the criteria used for primary operative management (OM) and planned NOM. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify risk factors for failure of NOM. All adult patients with blunt splenic injuries treated from 2000-2008 were reviewed and a logistic regression analysis employed. Results: There were 206 patients (146 men, 70.9%). Mean age was 38.2 ± 19.1 years. The mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 30.9 ± 11.6. The American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) classification of the splenic injury was: grade I, n = 43 (20.9%); grade II, n = 52 (25.2%); grade III, n = 60 (29.1%), grade IV, n = 42 (20.4%) and grade V, n = 9 (4.4%). 47 patients (22.8%) required immediate surgery (OM). More than 5 units of red cell transfusions (odds ratio [OR] 13.72, P < 0.001), a Glasgow Coma Scale < 11 (OR 9.88, P = 0.009) and age ? 55 years (OR 3.29, P = 0.038) were associated with primary OM. 159 patients (77.2%) qualified for a non-surgical approach (NOM), which was successful in 89.9% (143/159). The overall splenic salvage rate amounted to 69.4% (143/206). Multiple logistic regression analysis found age ? 40 years to be the only factor significantly and independently related to the failure of NOM (OR 13.58, P = 0.001). Conclusion: Advanced age is associated with an increased failure rate of NOM in patients with blunt splenic injuries.

Building a Social Accounting Matrix within the ESA95 Framework: Obtaining a Dataset for Applied General Equilibrium Modelling

This research provides a description of the process followed in order to assemble a "Social Accounting Matrix" for Spain corresponding to the year 2000 (SAMSP00). As argued in the paper, this process attempts to reconcile ESA95 conventions with requirements of applied general equilibrium modelling. Particularly, problems related to the level of aggregation of net taxation data, and to the valuation system used for expressing the monetary value of input-output transactions have deserved special attention. Since the adoption of ESA95 conventions, input-output transactions have been preferably valued at basic prices, which impose additional difficulties on modellers interested in computing applied general equilibrium models. This paper addresses these difficulties by developing a procedure that allows SAM-builders to change the valuation system of input-output transactions conveniently. In addition, this procedure produces new data related to net taxation information.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Small-scale non-industrial private forest ownership in the United States : rationale and implications for forest management

Abstract