The Millennium child with autism: Early childhood trajectories for health, education and economic wellbeing

Objective: Most of what we know about children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is based on post-diagnostic, retrospective, self-select studies. Oftentimes, there is no direct comparison between trajectories of children with ASD and children without ASD.

Methods: To circumvent both of these problems, the present secondary data analysis utilised a large-scale longitudinal general population survey of children born in the year 2000 (i.e. the Millennium Cohort Study; MCS; n=18522). Bi-annual MCS data were available from five data sweeps (children aged 9 months to 11 years of age).

Results: Pre-diagnostic data showed early health problems differentiated children later diagnosed with autism from non-diagnosed peers. Prevalence was much higher than previously estimated (3.5% for 11-year olds). Post-diagnosis, trajectories deteriorated significantly for the children with ASD and their families in relation to education, health and economic wellbeing.

Conclusion: These findings raise many issues for service delivery and the rights of persons with disabilities and their families.

Optical coherence tomography for the diagnosis, monitoring and guiding of treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration:a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration is the most common cause of sight impairment in the UK. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), vision worsens rapidly (over weeks) due to abnormal blood vessels developing that leak fluid and blood at the macula.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the optimal role of optical coherence tomography (OCT) in diagnosing people newly presenting with suspected nAMD and monitoring those previously diagnosed with the disease.

DATA SOURCES: Databases searched: MEDLINE (1946 to March 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (March 2013), EMBASE (1988 to March 2013), Biosciences Information Service (1995 to March 2013), Science Citation Index (1995 to March 2013), The Cochrane Library (Issue 2 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (inception to March 2013), Medion (inception to March 2013), Health Technology Assessment database (inception to March 2013).

REVIEW METHODS: Types of studies: direct/indirect studies reporting diagnostic outcomes.

INDEX TEST: time domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) or spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT).

COMPARATORS: clinical evaluation, visual acuity, Amsler grid, colour fundus photographs, infrared reflectance, red-free images/blue reflectance, fundus autofluorescence imaging, indocyanine green angiography, preferential hyperacuity perimetry, microperimetry. Reference standard: fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA). Risk of bias was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies, version 2. Meta-analysis models were fitted using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves. A Markov model was developed (65-year-old cohort, nAMD prevalence 70%), with nine strategies for diagnosis and/or monitoring, and cost-utility analysis conducted. NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was adopted. Costs (2011/12 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted (3.5%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS: In pooled estimates of diagnostic studies (all TD-OCT), sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88% (46% to 98%) and 78% (64% to 88%) respectively. For monitoring, the pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) was 85% (72% to 93%) and 48% (30% to 67%) respectively. The FFA for diagnosis and nurse-technician-led monitoring strategy had the lowest cost (£39,769; QALYs 10.473) and dominated all others except FFA for diagnosis and ophthalmologist-led monitoring (£44,649; QALYs 10.575; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £47,768). The least costly strategy had a 46.4% probability of being cost-effective at £30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

LIMITATIONS: Very few studies provided sufficient information for inclusion in meta-analyses. Only a few studies reported other tests; for some tests no studies were identified. The modelling was hampered by a lack of data on the diagnostic accuracy of strategies involving several tests.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on a small body of evidence of variable quality, OCT had high sensitivity and moderate specificity for diagnosis, and relatively high sensitivity but low specificity for monitoring. Strategies involving OCT alone for diagnosis and/or monitoring were unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research is required on (i) the performance of SD-OCT compared with FFA, especially for monitoring but also for diagnosis; (ii) the performance of strategies involving combinations/sequences of tests, for diagnosis and monitoring; (iii) the likelihood of active and inactive nAMD becoming inactive or active respectively; and (iv) assessment of treatment-associated utility weights (e.g. decrements), through a preference-based study.

STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012001930.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A self-learning teaching-learning based optimization for dynamic economic/environmental dispatch considering multiple plug-in electric vehicle loads

Economic and environmental load dispatch aims to determine the amount of electricity generated from power plants to meet load demand while minimizing fossil fuel costs and air pollution emissions subject to operational and licensing requirements. These two scheduling problems are commonly formulated with non-smooth cost functions respectively considering various effects and constraints, such as the valve point effect, power balance and ramp rate limits. The expected increase in plug-in electric vehicles is likely to see a significant impact on the power system due to high charging power consumption and significant uncertainty in charging times. In this paper, multiple electric vehicle charging profiles are comparatively integrated into a 24-hour load demand in an economic and environment dispatch model. Self-learning teaching-learning based optimization (TLBO) is employed to solve the non-convex non-linear dispatch problems. Numerical results on well-known benchmark functions, as well as test systems with different scales of generation units show the significance of the new scheduling method.

Tanker Mission Implication on a Civil Aerial Refuelling Transport System’s Benefit Evaluation

As the emphasis on initiatives that can improve environmental efficiency while simultaneously maintaining economic viability has escalated in recent years, attention has turned to more radical concepts of operation. In particular, the cruiser–feeder concept has shown potential for a new generation, environmentally friendly, air-transport system to alleviate the growing pressure on the passenger air-transportation network. However, a full evaluation of realizable benefits is needed to determine how the design and operation of potential feeder-aircraft configurations impact on the feasibility of the overall concept. This paper presents an analysis of a cruiser–feeder concept, in which fuel is transferred between the feeder and the cruiser in an aerial-refueling configuration to extend range while reducing cruiser weight, compared against the effects of escalating existing technology levels while retaining the existing passenger levels. Up to 14% fuel-burn and 12% operating-cost savings can be achieved when compared to a similar technology-level aircraft concept without aerial refueling, representing up to 26% in fuel burn and 25% in total operating cost over the existing operational model at today’s standard fleet technology and performance. However, these potential savings are not uniformly distributed across the network, and the system is highly sensitive to the routes serviced, with reductions in revenue-generation potential observed across the network for aerial-refueling operations due to reductions in passenger revenue.

Differential evolution combined with clonal selection for dynamic economic dispatch

Dynamic economic load dispatch (DELD) is one of the most important steps in power system operation. Various optimisation algorithms for solving the problem have been developed; however, due to the non-convex characteristics and large dimensionality of the problem, it is necessary to explore new methods to further improve the dispatch results and minimise the costs. This article proposes a hybrid differential evolution (DE) algorithm, namely clonal selection-based differential evolution (CSDE), to solve the problem. CSDE is an artificial intelligence technique that can be applied to complex optimisation problems which are for example nonlinear, large scale, non-convex and discontinuous. This hybrid algorithm combines the clonal selection algorithm (CSA) as the local search technique to update the best individual in the population, which enhances the diversity of the solutions and prevents premature convergence in DE. Furthermore, we investigate four mutation operations which are used in CSA as the hyper-mutation operations. Finally, an efficient solution repair method is designed for DELD to satisfy the complicated equality and inequality constraints of the power system to guarantee the feasibility of the solutions. Two benchmark power systems are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed CSDE/best/1 approach significantly outperforms nine other variants of CSDE and DE, as well as most other published methods, in terms of the quality of the solution and the convergence characteristics.

Economic evaluation and its place in dentistry

Objective: This review intends to examine current research surrounding economic assessment in the delivery of dental care. Economic evaluation is an acknowledged method of analysing dental care systems by means of efficiency, effectiveness, efficacy and availability. Though this is a widely used method in medicine, it is underappreciated in dentistry. As the delivery of health care changes there has been recent demand by the public, the profession, and those funding dental treatment to investigate current practices regarding programs themselves and resource allocation.
Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted regarding health economics. The initial search was carried out using Pubmed, Google Scholar, Science Direct, and The Cochrane Library with search terms “health AND economics AND dentistry”. A secondary search was conducted with the terms “heath care AND dentistry AND”. The third part of the entry was changed to address the aims and included the following terms: “cost benefit analysis”, “efficiency criteria”, “supply & demand”, “cost-effectiveness”, “cost minimisation”, “cost utility”, “resource allocation”, “QALY”, and “delivery and economics”. Limits were applied to all searches to only include papers published in English within the last eight years.
Results: Preliminary results demonstrated a limited number of economic evaluations conducted in dentistry. Those that were carried out were mainly confined to the United Kingdom. Furthermore analysis was mainly restricted to restorative dentistry, followed by orthodontics, and maxillofacial surgery, thereby demonstrating a need for investigation in all fields of dentistry.
Conclusion: Health economics has been overlooked in the past regarding delivery of dental care and resource allocation. Economic appraisal is a crucial part of generating an effective and efficient dental care system. It is becoming increasingly evident that there is a need for economic evaluation in all dental fields.

A hybrid harmony search with arithmetic crossover operation for economic dispatch

Economic dispatch (ED) problems often exhibit non-linear, non-convex characteristics due to the valve point effects. Further, various constraints and factors, such as prohibited operation zones, ramp rate limits and security constraints imposed by the generating units, and power loss in transmission make it even more challenging to obtain the global optimum using conventional mathematical methods. Meta-heuristic approaches are capable of solving non-linear, non-continuous and non-convex problems effectively as they impose no requirements on the optimization problems. However, most methods reported so far mainly focus on a specific type of ED problems, such as static or dynamic ED problems. This paper proposes a hybrid harmony search with arithmetic crossover operation, namely ACHS, for solving five different types of ED problems, including static ED with valve point effects, ED with prohibited operating zones, ED considering multiple fuel cells, combined heat and power ED, and dynamic ED. In this proposed ACHS, the global best information and arithmetic crossover are used to update the newly generated solution and speed up the convergence, which contributes to the algorithm exploitation capability. To balance the exploitation and exploration capabilities, the opposition based learning (OBL) strategy is employed to enhance the diversity of solutions. Further, four commonly used crossover operators are also investigated, and the arithmetic crossover shows its efficiency than the others when they are incorporated into HS. To make a comprehensive study on its scalability, ACHS is first tested on a group of benchmark functions with a 100 dimensions and compared with several state-of-the-art methods. Then it is used to solve seven different ED cases and compared with the results reported in literatures. All the results confirm the superiority of the ACHS for different optimization problems.

An efficient harmony search with new pitch adjustment for dynamic economic dispatch

A simple yet efficient harmony search (HS) method with a new pitch adjustment rule (NPAHS) is proposed for dynamic economic dispatch (DED) of electrical power systems, a large-scale non-linear real time optimization problem imposed by a number of complex constraints. The new pitch adjustment rule is based on the perturbation information and the mean value of the harmony memory, which is simple to implement and helps to enhance solution quality and convergence speed. A new constraint handling technique is also developed to effectively handle various constraints in the DED problem, and the violation of ramp rate limits between the first and last scheduling intervals that is often ignored by existing approaches for DED problems is effectively eliminated. To validate the effectiveness, the NPAHS is first tested on 10 popular benchmark functions with 100 dimensions, in comparison with four HS variants and five state-of-the-art evolutionary algorithms. Then, NPAHS is used to solve three 24-h DED systems with 5, 15 and 54 units, which consider the valve point effects, transmission loss, emission and prohibited operating zones. Simulation results on all these systems show the scalability and superiority of the proposed NPAHS on various large scale problems.

Marine Biosilica as a Tool to Understand the Therapeutic Benefit of Silica in Bone Repair

It is widely accepted that silicon-substituted materials enhance bone formation, yet the mechanism by which this occurs is poorly understood. This work investigates the potential of using diatom frustules to answer on fundamental questions surrounding the role of silica in bone healing. Biosilica with frustules 20m were isolated from Cyclotella meneghiniana a unicellular microalgae that was sourced from the Mississippi River, USA. Silanisation chemistry was used to modify the surface of C. meneghiniana with amine (–NH2) and thiol (–SH) terminated silanes. Untreated frustules and both functionalised groups were soaked in culture medium for 24hrs. Following the culture period, frustules were separated from the conditioned medium by centrifugation and both were tested separately in vitro for cytotoxicity using murine-monocyte macrophage (J774) cell line. Cytotoxicity was measured using LDH release to measure damage to cell membrane, MTS to measure cell viability and live-dead staining. The expression and release of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and TNF) were measured using ELISA. Our results found that diatom frustules and those functionalised with amino groups showed no cytotoxicity or elevated cytokine release. Diatom frustules functionalised with thiol groups showed higher levels of cytotoxicity. Diatom frustules and those functionalised with amino groups were taken forward to an in vivo mouse toxicity model, whereby the immunological response, organ toxicity and route of metabolism/excretion of silica were investigated. Histological results showed no organ toxicity in any of the groups relative to control. Analysis of blood Si levels suggests that modified frustules are metabolised quicker than functionalised frustules, suggesting that physiochemical attributes influence their biodistribution. Our results show that diatom frustules are non cytotoxic and are promising materials to better understand the role of silica in bone healing.

The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons

This study provides estimates of the macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) inChina and India for the period 2012–2030. Our estimates are derived using the World Health Organization’sEPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply andcapital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronicrespiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost ofthe five main NCDs will total USD 23.03 trillion for China and USD 4.58 trillion for India (in 2010 USD).For both countries, the most costly domain is cardiovascular disease. Our analyses also reveal that thecosts are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China’s higher and steeper income trajectory,and to a lesser extent its older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO’s best buys foraddressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia

The Economics of Non-Communicable Diseases in Indonesia provides new data on the economic burden of NCDs in the country, and puts it in perspective by drawing a comparison with India and China. With this new addition to the series on the economics of NCDs, the World Economic Forum aims to advance the understanding of the expected economic output loss at the country level, particularly in countries in economic and epidemiological transition. The evidence presented provides a starting point in reorienting the dialogue on investing in healthy living and NCD prevention in Indonesia towards the view that a healthy population is an important factor for sustainable growth.