Caste, land, and migration : a preliminary analysis of a village survey in an underdeveloped state in India

This paper explores migration from Bihar, one of the most underdeveloped states in India, by paying particular attention to social class (caste) and landholdings. After describing details of individual migrants, we present our preliminary findings on the determinants of migration, based on our field survey of 200 households in four villages in 2011. In terms of social class, Muslims are more likely to migrate, but Scheduled Castes do not show a high propensity to migrate as is stated in some of the existing literature where the underclass is said to be more mobile. In terms of landholdings, the probability that someone will migrate is high among the landless and smaller landholders but it decreases as the size of the landholding increases. However, as the size of the landholding increases still further, a reverse effect of landholding on decisions regarding migration moves in, with the decline in probability becoming less and less. This result confirms a non-linear relationship between landholdings and the decision to migrate. Some further research questions are raised in the paper.

Dynamic analysis of road vehicle-bridge systems under turbulent wind by means of Finite Element Models

When an automobile passes over a bridge dynamic effects are produced in vehicle and structure. In addition, the bridge itself moves when exposed to the wind inducing dynamic effects on the vehicle that have to be considered. The main objective of this work is to understand the influence of the different parameters concerning the vehicle, the bridge, the road roughness or the wind in the comfort and safety of the vehicles when crossing bridges. Non linear finite element models are used for structures and multibody dynamic models are employed for vehicles. The interaction between the vehicle and the bridge is considered by contact methods. Road roughness is described by the power spectral density (PSD) proposed by the ISO 8608. To consider that the profiles under right and left wheels are different but not independent, the hypotheses of homogeneity and isotropy are assumed. To generate the wind velocity history along the road the Sandia method is employed. The global problem is solved by means of the finite element method. First the methodology for modelling the interaction is verified in a benchmark. Following, the case of a vehicle running along a rigid road and subjected to the action of the turbulent wind is analyzed and the road roughness is incorporated in a following step. Finally the flexibility of the bridge is added to the model by making the vehicle run over the structure. The application of this methodology will allow to understand the influence of the different parameters in the comfort and safety of road vehicles crossing wind exposed bridges. Those results will help to recommend measures to make the traffic over bridges more reliable without affecting the structural integrity of the viaduct

Complexity analysis of spontaneous brain activity: effects of depression and antidepressant treatment

Magnetoencephalography (MEG) allows the real-time recording of neural activity and oscillatory activity in distributed neural networks. We applied a non-linear complexity analysis to resting-state neural activity as measured using whole-head MEG. Recordings were obtained from 20 unmedicated patients with major depressive disorder and 19 matched healthy controls. Subsequently, after 6 months of pharmacological treatment with the antidepressant mirtazapine 30 mg/day, patients received a second MEG scan. A measure of the complexity of neural signals, the Lempel–Ziv Complexity (LZC), was derived from the MEG time series. We found that depressed patients showed higher pre-treatment complexity values compared with controls, and that complexity values decreased after 6 months of effective pharmacological treatment, although this effect was statistically significant only in younger patients. The main treatment effect was to recover the tendency observed in controls of a positive correlation between age and complexity values. Importantly, the reduction of complexity with treatment correlated with the degree of clinical symptom remission. We suggest that LZC, a formal measure of neural activity complexity, is sensitive to the dynamic physiological changes observed in depression and may potentially offer an objective marker of depression and its remission after treatment.

Automatic motion compensation of free breathing acquired myocardial perfusion data by using independent component analysis

Images acquired during free breathing using first-pass gadolinium-enhanced myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) exhibit a quasiperiodic motion pattern that needs to be compensated for if a further automatic analysis of the perfusion is to be executed. In this work, we present a method to compensate this movement by combining independent component analysis (ICA) and image registration: First, we use ICA and a time?frequency analysis to identify the motion and separate it from the intensity change induced by the contrast agent. Then, synthetic reference images are created by recombining all the independent components but the one related to the motion. Therefore, the resulting image series does not exhibit motion and its images have intensities similar to those of their original counterparts. Motion compensation is then achieved by using a multi-pass image registration procedure. We tested our method on 39 image series acquired from 13 patients, covering the basal, mid and apical areas of the left heart ventricle and consisting of 58 perfusion images each. We validated our method by comparing manually tracked intensity profiles of the myocardial sections to automatically generated ones before and after registration of 13 patient data sets (39 distinct slices). We compared linear, non-linear, and combined ICA based registration approaches and previously published motion compensation schemes. Considering run-time and accuracy, a two-step ICA based motion compensation scheme that first optimizes a translation and then for non-linear transformation performed best and achieves registration of the whole series in 32 ± 12 s on a recent workstation. The proposed scheme improves the Pearsons correlation coefficient between manually and automatically obtained time?intensity curves from .84 ± .19 before registration to .96 ± .06 after registration

Discontinuous solutions and boundary value problems for non-linearly elastic fibre-reinforced materials

En este trabajo se han analizado varios problemas en el contexto de la elasticidad no lineal basándose en modelos constitutivos representativos. En particular, se han analizado problemas relacionados con el fenómeno de perdida de estabilidad asociada con condiciones de contorno en el caso de material reforzados con fibras. Cada problema se ha formulado y se ha analizado por separado en diferentes capítulos. En primer lugar se ha mostrado el análisis del gradiente de deformación discontinuo para un material transversalmente isótropo, en particular, el modelo del material considerado consiste de una base neo-Hookeana isótropa incrustada con fibras de refuerzo direccional caracterizadas con un solo parámetro. La solución de este problema se vincula con instabilidades que dan lugar al mecanismo de fallo conocido como banda de cortante. La perdida de elipticidad de las ecuaciones diferenciales de equilibrio es una condición necesaria para que aparezca este tipo de soluciones y por tanto las inestabilidades asociadas. En segundo lugar se ha analizado una deformación combinada de extensión, inación y torsión de un tubo cilíndrico grueso donde se ha encontrado que la deformación citada anteriormente puede ser controlada solo para determinadas direcciones de las fibras refuerzo. Para entender el comportamiento elástico del tubo considerado se ha ilustrado numéricamente los resultados obtenidos para las direcciones admisibles de las fibras de refuerzo bajo la deformación considerada. En tercer lugar se ha estudiado el caso de un tubo cilíndrico grueso reforzado con dos familias de fibras sometido a cortante en la dirección azimutal para un modelo de refuerzo especial. En este problema se ha encontrado que las inestabilidades que aparecen en el material considerado están asociadas con lo que se llama soluciones múltiples de la ecuación diferencial de equilibrio. Se ha encontrado que el fenómeno de instabilidad ocurre en un estado de deformación previo al estado de deformación donde se pierde la elipticidad de la ecuación diferencial de equilibrio. También se ha demostrado que la condición de perdida de elipticidad y ^W=2 = 0 (la segunda derivada de la función de energía con respecto a la deformación) son dos condiciones necesarias para la existencia de soluciones múltiples. Finalmente, se ha analizado detalladamente en el contexto de elipticidad un problema de un tubo cilíndrico grueso sometido a una deformación combinada en las direcciones helicoidal, axial y radial para distintas geotermias de las fibras de refuerzo . In the present work four main problems have been addressed within the framework of non-linear elasticity based on representative constitutive models. Namely, problems related to the loss of stability phenomena associated with boundary value problems for fibre-reinforced materials. Each of the considered problems is formulated and analysed separately in different chapters. We first start with the analysis of discontinuous deformation gradients for a transversely isotropic material under plane deformation. In particular, the material model is an augmented neo-Hookean base with a simple unidirectional reinforcement characterised by a single parameter. The solution of this problem is related to material instabilities and it is associated with a shear band-type failure mode. The loss of ellipticity of the governing differential equations is a necessary condition for the existence of these material instabilities. The second problem involves a detailed analysis of the combined non-linear extension, inflation and torsion of a thick-walled circular cylindrical tube where it has been found that the aforementioned deformation is controllable only for certain preferred directions of transverse isotropy. Numerical results have been illustrated to understand the elastic behaviour of the tube for the admissible preferred directions under the considered deformation. The third problem deals with the analysis of a doubly fibre-reinforced thickwalled circular cylindrical tube undergoing pure azimuthal shear for a special class of the reinforcing model where multiple non-smooth solutions emerge. The associated instability phenomena are found to occur prior to the point where the nominal stress tensor changes monotonicity in a particular direction. It has been also shown that the loss of ellipticity condition that arises from the equilibrium equation and ^W=2 = 0 (the second derivative of the strain-energy function with respect to the deformation) are equivalent necessary conditions for the emergence of multiple solutions for the considered material. Finally, a detailed analysis in the basis of the loss of ellipticity of the governing differential equations for a combined helical, axial and radial elastic deformations of a fibre-reinforced circular cylindrical tube is carried out.

Analysis of the static and dynamic behaviour of hydraulic fills

En la actualidad existe un gran conocimiento en la caracterización de rellenos hidráulicos, tanto en su caracterización estática, como dinámica. Sin embargo, son escasos en la literatura estudios más generales y globales de estos materiales, muy relacionados con sus usos y principales problemáticas en obras portuarias y mineras. Los procedimientos semi‐empíricos para la evaluación del efecto silo en las celdas de cajones portuarios, así como para el potencial de licuefacción de estos suelos durantes cargas instantáneas y terremotos, se basan en estudios donde la influencia de los parámetros que los rigen no se conocen en gran medida, dando lugar a resultados con considerable dispersión. Este es el caso, por ejemplo, de los daños notificados por el grupo de investigación del Puerto de Barcelona, la rotura de los cajones portuarios en el Puerto de Barcelona en 2007. Por estos motivos y otros, se ha decidido desarrollar un análisis para la evaluación de estos problemas mediante la propuesta de una metodología teórico‐numérica y empírica. El enfoque teórico‐numérico desarrollado en el presente estudio se centra en la determinación del marco teórico y las herramientas numéricas capaces de solventar los retos que presentan estos problemas. La complejidad del problema procede de varios aspectos fundamentales: el comportamiento no lineal de los suelos poco confinados o flojos en procesos de consolidación por preso propio; su alto potencial de licuefacción; la caracterización hidromecánica de los contactos entre estructuras y suelo (camino preferencial para el flujo de agua y consolidación lateral); el punto de partida de los problemas con un estado de tensiones efectivas prácticamente nulo. En cuanto al enfoque experimental, se ha propuesto una metodología de laboratorio muy sencilla para la caracterización hidromecánica del suelo y las interfaces, sin la necesidad de usar complejos aparatos de laboratorio o procedimientos excesivamente complicados. Este trabajo incluye por tanto un breve repaso a los aspectos relacionados con la ejecución de los rellenos hidráulicos, sus usos principales y los fenómenos relacionados, con el fin de establecer un punto de partida para el presente estudio. Este repaso abarca desde la evolución de las ecuaciones de consolidación tradicionales (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English & Hussey, 1967) y las metodologías de cálculo (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) hasta las contribuciones en relación al efecto silo (Ranssen, 1985) (Ravenet, 1977) y sobre el fenómeno de la licuefacción (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). Con motivo de este estudio se ha desarrollado exclusivamente un código basado en el método de los elementos finitos (MEF) empleando el programa MATLAB. Para ello, se ha esablecido un marco teórico (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz & Shiomi, 1984) (Segura & Caron, 2004) y numérico (Zienkiewicz & Taylor, 1989) (Huerta & Rodríguez, 1992) (Segura & Carol, 2008) para resolver problemas de consolidación multidimensional con condiciones de contorno friccionales, y los correspondientes modelos constitutivos (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fiu & Liu, 2011). Asimismo, se ha desarrollado una metodología experimental a través de una serie de ensayos de laboratorio para la calibración de los modelos constitutivos y de la caracterización de parámetros índice y de flujo (Castro, 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies, 2006). Para ello se han empleado arenas de Hostun como material (relleno hidráulico) de referencia. Como principal aportación se incluyen una serie de nuevos ensayos de corte directo para la caracterización hidromecánica de la interfaz suelo – estructura de hormigón, para diferentes tipos de encofrados y rugosidades. Finalmente, se han diseñado una serie de algoritmos específicos para la resolución del set de ecuaciones diferenciales de gobierno que definen este problema. Estos algoritmos son de gran importancia en este problema para tratar el procesamiento transitorio de la consolidación de los rellenos hidráulicos, y de otros efectos relacionados con su implementación en celdas de cajones, como el efecto silo y la licuefacciones autoinducida. Para ello, se ha establecido un modelo 2D axisimétrico, con formulación acoplada u‐p para elementos continuos y elementos interfaz (de espesor cero), que tratan de simular las condiciones de estos rellenos hidráulicos cuando se colocan en las celdas portuarias. Este caso de estudio hace referencia clara a materiales granulares en estado inicial muy suelto y con escasas tensiones efectivas, es decir, con prácticamente todas las sobrepresiones ocasionadas por el proceso de autoconsolidación (por peso propio). Por todo ello se requiere de algoritmos numéricos específicos, así como de modelos constitutivos particulares, para los elementos del continuo y para los elementos interfaz. En el caso de la simulación de diferentes procedimientos de puesta en obra de los rellenos se ha requerido la modificacion de los algoritmos empleados para poder así representar numéricamente la puesta en obra de estos materiales, además de poder realizar una comparativa de los resultados para los distintos procedimientos. La constante actualización de los parámetros del suelo, hace también de este algoritmo una potente herramienta que permite establecer un interesante juego de perfiles de variables, tales como la densidad, el índice de huecos, la fracción de sólidos, el exceso de presiones, y tensiones y deformaciones. En definitiva, el modelo otorga un mejor entendimiento del efecto silo, término comúnmente usado para definir el fenómeno transitorio del gradiente de presiones laterales en las estructuras de contención en forma de silo. Finalmente se incluyen una serie de comparativas entre los resultados del modelo y de diferentes estudios de la literatura técnica, tanto para el fenómeno de las consolidaciones por preso propio (Fredlund, Donaldson & Gitirana, 2009) como para el estudio del efecto silo (Puertos del Estado, 2006, EuroCódigo (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009), etc.). Para concluir, se propone el diseño de un prototipo de columna de decantación con paredes friccionales, como principal propuesta de futura línea de investigación. Wide research is nowadays available on the characterization of hydraulic fills in terms of either static or dynamic behavior. However, reported comprehensive analyses of these soils when meant for port or mining works are scarce. Moreover, the semi‐empirical procedures for assessing the silo effect on cells in floating caissons, and the liquefaction potential of these soils during sudden loads or earthquakes are based on studies where the underlying influence parameters are not well known, yielding results with significant scatter. This is the case, for instance, of hazards reported by the Barcelona Liquefaction working group, with the failure of harbor walls in 2007. By virtue of this, a complex approach has been undertaken to evaluate the problem by a proposal of numerical and laboratory methodology. Within a theoretical and numerical scope, the study is focused on the numerical tools capable to face the different challenges of this problem. The complexity is manifold; the highly non‐linear behavior of consolidating soft soils; their potentially liquefactable nature, the significance of the hydromechanics of the soil‐structure contact, the discontinuities as preferential paths for water flow, setting “negligible” effective stresses as initial conditions. Within an experimental scope, a straightforward laboratory methodology is introduced for the hydromechanical characterization of the soil and the interface without the need of complex laboratory devices or cumbersome procedures. Therefore, this study includes a brief overview of the hydraulic filling execution, main uses (land reclamation, filled cells, tailing dams, etc.) and the underlying phenomena (self‐weight consolidation, silo effect, liquefaction, etc.). It comprises from the evolution of the traditional consolidation equations (Terzaghi, 1943), (Gibson, English, & Hussey, 1967) and solving methodologies (Townsend & McVay, 1990) (Fredlund, Donaldson and Gitirana, 2009) to the contributions in terms of silo effect (Ranssen, 1895) (Ravenet, 1977) and liquefaction phenomena (Casagrande, 1936) (Castro, 1969) (Been & Jefferies, 1985) (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986). The novelty of the study lies on the development of a Finite Element Method (FEM) code, exclusively formulated for this problem. Subsequently, a theoretical (Biot, 1941) (Zienkiewicz and Shiomi, 1984) (Segura and Carol, 2004) and numerical approach (Zienkiewicz and Taylor, 1989) (Huerta, A. & Rodriguez, A., 1992) (Segura, J.M. & Carol, I., 2008) is introduced for multidimensional consolidation problems with frictional contacts and the corresponding constitutive models (Pastor & Zienkiewicz, 1986) (Fu & Liu, 2011). An experimental methodology is presented for the laboratory test and material characterization (Castro 1969) (Bahda 1997) (Been & Jefferies 2006) using Hostun sands as reference hydraulic fill. A series of singular interaction shear tests for the interface calibration is included. Finally, a specific model algorithm for the solution of the set of differential equations governing the problem is presented. The process of consolidation and settlements involves a comprehensive simulation of the transient process of decantation and the build‐up of the silo effect in cells and certain phenomena related to self‐compaction and liquefaction. For this, an implementation of a 2D axi‐syimmetric coupled model with continuum and interface elements, aimed at simulating conditions and self‐weight consolidation of hydraulic fills once placed into floating caisson cells or close to retaining structures. This basically concerns a loose granular soil with a negligible initial effective stress level at the onset of the process. The implementation requires a specific numerical algorithm as well as specific constitutive models for both the continuum and the interface elements. The simulation of implementation procedures for the fills has required the modification of the algorithm so that a numerical representation of these procedures is carried out. A comparison of the results for the different procedures is interesting for the global analysis. Furthermore, the continuous updating of the model provides an insightful logging of variable profiles such as density, void ratio and solid fraction profiles, total and excess pore pressure, stresses and strains. This will lead to a better understanding of complex phenomena such as the transient gradient in lateral pressures due to silo effect in saturated soils. Interesting model and literature comparisons for the self‐weight consolidation (Fredlund, Donaldson, & Gitirana, 2009) and the silo effect results (Puertos del Estado (2006), EuroCode (2006), Japan Tech, Stands. (2009)). This study closes with the design of a decantation column prototype with frictional walls as the main future line of research.

The use of non-reflecting boundary conditions in soil dynamics

In this paper some aspects of the use of non-reflecting boundaries in dynamic problems, analyzed in time domain, are considered. Current trends for treating the above mentioned problems are summarized with a particular emphasis on the use of numerical techniques, such as Boundary Element Method (BEM) or mixed and hybrid formulations, Finite Element Method (FEM) plus BEM. As an alternative to these methods, an easy time domain boundary condition, obtained from the well known consistent transmitting boundary developed by Waas for frequency domain analysis, can be applied to represent the reactions of the unbounded soil on the interest zone. The behaviour of this proposed boundary condition is studied when waves of different frequency to the one used for its obtention are acting on the physical edge of the model. As an application example,an analysis is made of the soil-structure interaction of a rigid strip foundation on a horizontal non-linear elastic layer on bed rock. The results obtained suggest the need of time domain solutions for this type of problem

Analysis of the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries

A pesar de los importantes avances en la reducción del hambre, la seguridad alimentaria continúa siendo un reto de dimensión internacional. La seguridad alimentaria es un concepto amplio y multidimensional, cuyo análisis abarca distintas escalas y horizontes temporales. Dada su complejidad, la identificación de las causas de la inseguridad alimentaria y la priorización de las medias para abordarlas, son dos cuestiones que suscitan un intenso debate en la actualidad. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el impacto de la globalización y el crecimiento económico en la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo, desde una perspectiva macro y un horizonte temporal a largo plazo. La influencia de la globalización se aborda de una manera secuencial. En primer lugar, se analiza la relación entre la inversión público-privada en infraestructuras y las exportaciones agrarias. A continuación, se estudia el impacto de las exportaciones agrarias en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. El estudio del impacto del crecimiento económico aborda los cambios paralelos en la distribución de la renta, y cómo la inequidad influye en el comportamiento de la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Además, se analiza en qué medida el crecimiento económico contribuye a acelerar el proceso de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. Con el fin de conseguir los objetivos mencionados, se llevan a cabo varios análisis econométricos basados en datos de panel, en el que se combinan datos de corte transversal de 52 países y datos temporales comprendidos en el periodo 1991-2012. Se analizan tanto variables en niveles como variables en tasas de cambio anual. Se aplican los modelos de estimación de efectos variables y efectos fijos, ambos en niveles y en primeras diferencias. La tesis incluye cuatro tipos de modelos econométricos, cada uno de ellos con sus correspondientes pruebas de robustez y especificaciones. Los resultados matizan la importancia de la globalización y el crecimiento económico como mecanismos de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. Se obtienen dos conclusiones relativas a la globalización. En primer lugar, los resultados sugieren que la promoción de las inversiones privadas en infraestructuras contribuye a aumentar las exportaciones agrarias. En segundo lugar, se observa que las exportaciones agrarias pueden tener un impacto negativo en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. La combinación de estas dos conclusiones sugiere que la apertura comercial y financiera no contribuye por sí misma a la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. La apertura internacional de los países en desarrollo ha de ir acompañada de políticas e inversiones que desarrollen sectores productivos de alto valor añadido, que fortalezcan la economía nacional y reduzcan su dependencia exterior. En relación al crecimiento económico, a pesar del incuestionable hecho de que el crecimiento económico es una condición necesaria para reducir los niveles de subnutrición, no es una condición suficiente. Se han identificado tres estrategias adicionales que han de acompañar al crecimiento económico con el fin de intensificar su impacto positivo sobre la subnutrición. Primero, es necesario que el crecimiento económico sea acompañado de una distribución más equitativa de los ingresos. Segundo, el crecimiento económico ha de reflejarse en un aumento de inversiones en salud, agua y saneamiento y educación. Se observa que, incluso en ausencia de crecimiento económico, mejoras en el acceso a agua potable contribuyen a reducir los niveles de población subnutrida. Tercero, el crecimiento económico sostenible en el largo plazo parece tener un mayor impacto positivo sobre la seguridad alimentaria que el crecimiento económico más volátil o inestable en el corto plazo. La estabilidad macroeconómica se identifica como una condición necesaria para alcanzar una mayor mejora en la seguridad alimentaria, incluso habiéndose mejorado la equidad en la distribución de los ingresos. Por último, la tesis encuentra que los países en desarrollo analizados han experimentado diferentes trayectorias no lineales en su proceso de mejora de sus niveles de subnutrición. Los resultados sugieren que un mayor nivel inicial de subnutrición y el crecimiento económico son responsables de una respuesta más rápida al reto de la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. ABSTRACT Despite the significant reductions of hunger, food security still remains a global challenge. Food security is a wide concept that embraces multiple dimensions, and has spatial-temporal scales. Because of its complexity, the identification of the drivers underpinning food insecurity and the prioritization of measures to address them are a subject of intensive debate. This thesis attempts to assess the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries with a macro level scale (country) and using a long-term approach. The influence of globalization is addressed in a sequential way. First, the impact of public-private investment in infrastructure on agricultural exports in developing countries is analyzed. Secondly, an assessment is conducted to determine the impact of agricultural exports on food security indicators. The impact of economic growth focuses on the parallel changes in income inequality and how the income distribution influences countries' food security performance. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes to what extent economic growth helps accelerating food security improvements. To address the above mentioned goals, various econometric models are formulated. Models use panel data procedures combining cross-sectional data of 52 countries and time series data from 1991 to 2012. Yearly data are expressed both in levels and in changes. The estimation models applied are random effects estimation and fixed effects estimations, both in levels and in first differences. The thesis includes four families of econometric models, each with its own set of robustness checks and specifications. The results qualify the relevance of globalization and economic growth as enabling mechanisms for improving food security in developing countries. Concerning globalization, two main conclusions can be drawn. First, results showed that enhancing foreign private investment in infrastructures contributes to increase agricultural exports. Second, agricultural exports appear to have a negative impact on national food security indicators. These two conclusions suggest that trade and financial openness per se do not contribute directly to improve food security in development countries. Both measures should be accompanied by investments and policies to support the development of national high value productive sectors, to strengthen the domestic economy and reduce its external dependency. Referring to economic growth, despite the unquestionable fact that income growth is a pre-requisite for reducing undernourishment, results suggest that it is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Three additional strategies should accompany economic growth to intensifying its impact on food security. Firstly, it is necessary that income growth should be accompanied by a better distribution of income. Secondly, income growth needs to be followed by investments and policies in health, sanitation and education to improve food security. Even if economic growth falters, sustained improvements in the access to drinking water may still give rise to reductions in the percentage of undernourished people. And thirdly, long-term economic growth appears to have a greater impact on reducing hunger than growth regimes that combine periods of growth peaks followed by troughs. Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for accelerating food security. Finally, the thesis finds that the developing countries analyzed have experienced different non-linear paths toward improving food security. Results also show that a higher initial level of undernourishment and economic growth result in a faster response for improving food security.

Analysis of Combined Bending and Punching Tests of Reinforced Concrete Slabs within IMPACT III Project

The paper reports on a collaborative effort between the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and their consultants Principia and Stangenberg. As part of the IMPACT III project, reduced scale impact tests of reinforced concrete structures were carried out. The simulation of test X3 is presented here and the numerical results are compared with those obtained in the test, carried out in August 2013. The general object is to improve the safety of nuclear facilities and, more specifically, to demonstrate the capabilities of current simulation techniques to reproduce the behaviour of a reinforced concrete structure impacted by a soft missile. The missile is a steel tube with a mass of 50 kg and travelling at 140 m/s. The target is a 250 mm thick, 2,1 m by 2,1 m reinforced concrete wall, held in a stiff supporting frame. The reinforcement includes both longitudinal and transverse rebars. Calculations were carried out before and after the test with Abaqus (Principia) and SOFiSTiK (Stangenberg). In the Abaqus simulation the concrete is modelled using solid elements and a damaged plasticity formulation, the rebars with embedded beam elements, and the missile with shell elements. In SOFiSTiK the target is modelled with non-linear, layered shell elements for the reinforcement on both sides; non-linear shear deformations of shell/plate elements are approximately included. The results generally indicate a good agreement between calculations and measurements.

Análisis de sistemas dinámicos y complejos en la Liga Profesional de Balonmano de España = Complex and dynamical systems analysis in Spanish Professional Handball League

El propósito de esta tesis fue estudiar el rendimiento ofensivo de los equipos de balonmano de élite cuando se considera el balonmano como un sistema dinámico complejo no lineal. La perspectiva de análisis dinámica dependiente del tiempo fue adoptada para evaluar el rendimiento de los equipos durante el partido. La muestra general comprendió los 240 partidos jugados en la temporada 2011-2012 de la liga profesional masculina de balonmano de España (Liga ASOBAL). En el análisis posterior solo se consideraron los partidos ajustados (diferencia final de goles ≤ 5; n = 142). El estado del marcador, la localización del partido, el nivel de los oponentes y el periodo de juego fueron incorporados al análisis como variables situacionales. Tres estudios compusieron el núcleo de la tesis. En el primer estudio, analizamos la coordinación entre las series temporales que representan el proceso goleador a lo largo del partido de cada uno de los dos equipos que se enfrentan. Autocorrelaciones, correlaciones cruzadas, doble media móvil y transformada de Hilbert fueron usadas para el análisis. El proceso goleador de los equipos presentó una alta consistencia a lo largo de todos los partidos, así como fuertes modos de coordinación en fase en todos los contextos de juego. Las únicas diferencias se encontraron en relación al periodo de juego. La coordinación en los procesos goleadores de los equipos fue significativamente menor en el 1er y 2º periodo (0–10 min y 10–20 min), mostrando una clara coordinación creciente a medida que el partido avanzaba. Esto sugiere que son los 20 primeros minutos aquellos que rompen los partidos. En el segundo estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales (efecto inmediato, a corto y a medio plazo) de los tiempos muertos en el rendimiento goleador de los equipos. Modelos de regresión lineal múltiple fueron empleados para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron incrementos de 0.59, 1.40 y 1.85 goles para los periodos que comprenden la primera, tercera y quinta posesión de los equipos que pidieron el tiempo muerto. Inversamente, se encontraron efectos significativamente negativos para los equipos rivales, con decrementos de 0.50, 1.43 y 2.05 goles en los mismos periodos respectivamente. La influencia de las variables situacionales solo se registró en ciertos periodos de juego. Finalmente, en el tercer estudio, analizamos los efectos temporales de las exclusiones de los jugadores sobre el rendimiento goleador de los equipos, tanto para los equipos que sufren la exclusión (inferioridad numérica) como para los rivales (superioridad numérica). Se emplearon modelos de regresión lineal múltiple para el análisis. Los resultados mostraron efectos negativos significativos en el número de goles marcados por los equipos con un jugador menos, con decrementos de 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62 y 0.57 goles para los periodos que comprenden el primer, segundo, tercer, cuarto y quinto minutos previos y posteriores a la exclusión. Para los rivales, los resultados mostraron efectos positivos significativos, con incrementos de la misma magnitud en los mismos periodos. Esta tendencia no se vio afectada por el estado del marcador, localización del partido, nivel de los oponentes o periodo de juego. Los incrementos goleadores fueron menores de lo que se podría esperar de una superioridad numérica de 2 minutos. Diferentes teorías psicológicas como la paralización ante situaciones de presión donde se espera un gran rendimiento pueden ayudar a explicar este hecho. Los últimos capítulos de la tesis enumeran las conclusiones principales y presentan diferentes aplicaciones prácticas que surgen de los tres estudios. Por último, se presentan las limitaciones y futuras líneas de investigación. ABSTRACT The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the offensive performance of elite handball teams when considering handball as a complex non-linear dynamical system. The time-dependent dynamic approach was adopted to assess teams’ performance during the game. The overall sample comprised the 240 games played in the season 2011-2012 of men’s Spanish Professional Handball League (ASOBAL League). In the subsequent analyses, only close games (final goal-difference ≤ 5; n = 142) were considered. Match status, game location, quality of opposition, and game period situational variables were incorporated into the analysis. Three studies composed the core of the thesis. In the first study, we analyzed the game-scoring coordination between the time series representing the scoring processes of the two opposing teams throughout the game. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, double moving average, and Hilbert transform were used for analysis. The scoring processes of the teams presented a high consistency across all the games as well as strong in-phase modes of coordination in all the game contexts. The only differences were found when controlling for the game period. The coordination in the scoring processes of the teams was significantly lower for the 1st and 2nd period (0–10 min and 10–20 min), showing a clear increasing coordination behavior as the game progressed. This suggests that the first 20 minutes are those that break the game-scoring. In the second study, we analyzed the temporal effects (immediate effect, short-term effect, and medium-term effect) of team timeouts on teams’ scoring performance. Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed increments of 0.59, 1.40 and 1.85 goals for the periods within the first, third and fifth timeout ball possessions for the teams that requested the timeout. Conversely, significant negative effects on goals scored were found for the opponent teams, with decrements of 0.59, 1.43 and 2.04 goals for the same periods, respectively. The influence of situational variables on the scoring performance was only registered in certain game periods. Finally, in the third study, we analyzed the players’ exclusions temporal effects on teams’ scoring performance, for the teams that suffer the exclusion (numerical inferiority) and for the opponents (numerical superiority). Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed significant negative effects on the number of goals scored for the teams with one less player, with decrements of 0.25, 0.40, 0.61, 0.62, and 0.57 goals for the periods within the previous and post one, two, three, four and five minutes of play. For the opponent teams, the results showed positive effects, with increments of the same magnitude in the same game periods. This trend was not affected by match status, game location, quality of opposition, or game period. The scoring increments were smaller than might be expected from a 2-minute numerical playing superiority. Psychological theories such as choking under pressure situations where good performance is expected could contribute to explain this finding. The final chapters of the thesis enumerate the main conclusions and underline the main practical applications that arise from the three studies. Lastly, limitations and future research directions are described.

Analysis of fire behaviour simulations over Spain with WRF-FIRE

Wildland fire spread and behaviour are complex phenomena owing to both the number of involved physico-chemical factors, and the non-linear relationship between variables. Spain is plagued by forest and brush fires every summer, when the extremely dry weather sets in along with high temperatures. The use of fire behaviour models requires the availability of high resolution environmental and fuel data; in the absence of real data, errors on the simulated fire spread can be compounded to affect the spatial and temporal accuracy of predicted data. The effect of input values on the accuracy of WRF-FIRE simulations was evaluated to assess the capabilities of the new system for wildland fire in accurately forecasting fire behaviour. The results confirm that the use of accurate meteorological data and a custom fuel moisture content model is crucial to obtain precise simulations of fire behaviour.

Automated wordlength optimization framework for multi-source statistical interval-based analysis of nonlinear systems with control-flow structures

El uso de aritmética de punto fijo es una opción de diseño muy extendida en sistemas con fuertes restricciones de área, consumo o rendimiento. Para producir implementaciones donde los costes se minimicen sin impactar negativamente en la precisión de los resultados debemos llevar a cabo una asignación cuidadosa de anchuras de palabra. Encontrar la combinación óptima de anchuras de palabra en coma fija para un sistema dado es un problema combinatorio NP-hard al que los diseñadores dedican entre el 25 y el 50 % del ciclo de diseño. Las plataformas hardware reconfigurables, como son las FPGAs, también se benefician de las ventajas que ofrece la aritmética de coma fija, ya que éstas compensan las frecuencias de reloj más bajas y el uso más ineficiente del hardware que hacen estas plataformas respecto a los ASICs. A medida que las FPGAs se popularizan para su uso en computación científica los diseños aumentan de tamaño y complejidad hasta llegar al punto en que no pueden ser manejados eficientemente por las técnicas actuales de modelado de señal y ruido de cuantificación y de optimización de anchura de palabra. En esta Tesis Doctoral exploramos distintos aspectos del problema de la cuantificación y presentamos nuevas metodologías para cada uno de ellos: Las técnicas basadas en extensiones de intervalos han permitido obtener modelos de propagación de señal y ruido de cuantificación muy precisos en sistemas con operaciones no lineales. Nosotros llevamos esta aproximación un paso más allá introduciendo elementos de Multi-Element Generalized Polynomial Chaos (ME-gPC) y combinándolos con una técnica moderna basada en Modified Affine Arithmetic (MAA) estadístico para así modelar sistemas que contienen estructuras de control de flujo. Nuestra metodología genera los distintos caminos de ejecución automáticamente, determina las regiones del dominio de entrada que ejercitarán cada uno de ellos y extrae los momentos estadísticos del sistema a partir de dichas soluciones parciales. Utilizamos esta técnica para estimar tanto el rango dinámico como el ruido de redondeo en sistemas con las ya mencionadas estructuras de control de flujo y mostramos la precisión de nuestra aproximación, que en determinados casos de uso con operadores no lineales llega a tener tan solo una desviación del 0.04% con respecto a los valores de referencia obtenidos mediante simulación. Un inconveniente conocido de las técnicas basadas en extensiones de intervalos es la explosión combinacional de términos a medida que el tamaño de los sistemas a estudiar crece, lo cual conlleva problemas de escalabilidad. Para afrontar este problema presen tamos una técnica de inyección de ruidos agrupados que hace grupos con las señales del sistema, introduce las fuentes de ruido para cada uno de los grupos por separado y finalmente combina los resultados de cada uno de ellos. De esta forma, el número de fuentes de ruido queda controlado en cada momento y, debido a ello, la explosión combinatoria se minimiza. También presentamos un algoritmo de particionado multi-vía destinado a minimizar la desviación de los resultados a causa de la pérdida de correlación entre términos de ruido con el objetivo de mantener los resultados tan precisos como sea posible. La presente Tesis Doctoral también aborda el desarrollo de metodologías de optimización de anchura de palabra basadas en simulaciones de Monte-Cario que se ejecuten en tiempos razonables. Para ello presentamos dos nuevas técnicas que exploran la reducción del tiempo de ejecución desde distintos ángulos: En primer lugar, el método interpolativo aplica un interpolador sencillo pero preciso para estimar la sensibilidad de cada señal, y que es usado después durante la etapa de optimización. En segundo lugar, el método incremental gira en torno al hecho de que, aunque es estrictamente necesario mantener un intervalo de confianza dado para los resultados finales de nuestra búsqueda, podemos emplear niveles de confianza más relajados, lo cual deriva en un menor número de pruebas por simulación, en las etapas iniciales de la búsqueda, cuando todavía estamos lejos de las soluciones optimizadas. Mediante estas dos aproximaciones demostramos que podemos acelerar el tiempo de ejecución de los algoritmos clásicos de búsqueda voraz en factores de hasta x240 para problemas de tamaño pequeño/mediano. Finalmente, este libro presenta HOPLITE, una infraestructura de cuantificación automatizada, flexible y modular que incluye la implementación de las técnicas anteriores y se proporciona de forma pública. Su objetivo es ofrecer a desabolladores e investigadores un entorno común para prototipar y verificar nuevas metodologías de cuantificación de forma sencilla. Describimos el flujo de trabajo, justificamos las decisiones de diseño tomadas, explicamos su API pública y hacemos una demostración paso a paso de su funcionamiento. Además mostramos, a través de un ejemplo sencillo, la forma en que conectar nuevas extensiones a la herramienta con las interfaces ya existentes para poder así expandir y mejorar las capacidades de HOPLITE. ABSTRACT Using fixed-point arithmetic is one of the most common design choices for systems where area, power or throughput are heavily constrained. In order to produce implementations where the cost is minimized without negatively impacting the accuracy of the results, a careful assignment of word-lengths is required. The problem of finding the optimal combination of fixed-point word-lengths for a given system is a combinatorial NP-hard problem to which developers devote between 25 and 50% of the design-cycle time. Reconfigurable hardware platforms such as FPGAs also benefit of the advantages of fixed-point arithmetic, as it compensates for the slower clock frequencies and less efficient area utilization of the hardware platform with respect to ASICs. As FPGAs become commonly used for scientific computation, designs constantly grow larger and more complex, up to the point where they cannot be handled efficiently by current signal and quantization noise modelling and word-length optimization methodologies. In this Ph.D. Thesis we explore different aspects of the quantization problem and we present new methodologies for each of them: The techniques based on extensions of intervals have allowed to obtain accurate models of the signal and quantization noise propagation in systems with non-linear operations. We take this approach a step further by introducing elements of MultiElement Generalized Polynomial Chaos (ME-gPC) and combining them with an stateof- the-art Statistical Modified Affine Arithmetic (MAA) based methodology in order to model systems that contain control-flow structures. Our methodology produces the different execution paths automatically, determines the regions of the input domain that will exercise them, and extracts the system statistical moments from the partial results. We use this technique to estimate both the dynamic range and the round-off noise in systems with the aforementioned control-flow structures. We show the good accuracy of our approach, which in some case studies with non-linear operators shows a 0.04 % deviation respect to the simulation-based reference values. A known drawback of the techniques based on extensions of intervals is the combinatorial explosion of terms as the size of the targeted systems grows, which leads to scalability problems. To address this issue we present a clustered noise injection technique that groups the signals in the system, introduces the noise terms in each group independently and then combines the results at the end. In this way, the number of noise sources in the system at a given time is controlled and, because of this, the combinato rial explosion is minimized. We also present a multi-way partitioning algorithm aimed at minimizing the deviation of the results due to the loss of correlation between noise terms, in order to keep the results as accurate as possible. This Ph.D. Thesis also covers the development of methodologies for word-length optimization based on Monte-Carlo simulations in reasonable times. We do so by presenting two novel techniques that explore the reduction of the execution times approaching the problem in two different ways: First, the interpolative method applies a simple but precise interpolator to estimate the sensitivity of each signal, which is later used to guide the optimization effort. Second, the incremental method revolves on the fact that, although we strictly need to guarantee a certain confidence level in the simulations for the final results of the optimization process, we can do it with more relaxed levels, which in turn implies using a considerably smaller amount of samples, in the initial stages of the process, when we are still far from the optimized solution. Through these two approaches we demonstrate that the execution time of classical greedy techniques can be accelerated by factors of up to ×240 for small/medium sized problems. Finally, this book introduces HOPLITE, an automated, flexible and modular framework for quantization that includes the implementation of the previous techniques and is provided for public access. The aim is to offer a common ground for developers and researches for prototyping and verifying new techniques for system modelling and word-length optimization easily. We describe its work flow, justifying the taken design decisions, explain its public API and we do a step-by-step demonstration of its execution. We also show, through an example, the way new extensions to the flow should be connected to the existing interfaces in order to expand and improve the capabilities of HOPLITE.

Impact of artifact correction methods on R-R interbeat signals to quantifying heart rate variability (HRV) according to linear and nonlinear methods.

In the analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) are used temporal series that contains the distances between successive heartbeats in order to assess autonomic regulation of the cardiovascular system. These series are obtained from the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal analysis, which can be affected by different types of artifacts leading to incorrect interpretations in the analysis of the HRV signals. Classic approach to deal with these artifacts implies the use of correction methods, some of them based on interpolation, substitution or statistical techniques. However, there are few studies that shows the accuracy and performance of these correction methods on real HRV signals. This study aims to determine the performance of some linear and non-linear correction methods on HRV signals with induced artefacts by quantification of its linear and nonlinear HRV parameters. As part of the methodology, ECG signals of rats measured using the technique of telemetry were used to generate real heart rate variability signals without any error. In these series were simulated missing points (beats) in different quantities in order to emulate a real experimental situation as accurately as possible. In order to compare recovering efficiency, deletion (DEL), linear interpolation (LI), cubic spline interpolation (CI), moving average window (MAW) and nonlinear predictive interpolation (NPI) were used as correction methods for the series with induced artifacts. The accuracy of each correction method was known through the results obtained after the measurement of the mean value of the series (AVNN), standard deviation (SDNN), root mean square error of the differences between successive heartbeats (RMSSD), Lomb\'s periodogram (LSP), Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), multiscale entropy (MSE) and symbolic dynamics (SD) on each HRV signal with and without artifacts. The results show that, at low levels of missing points the performance of all correction techniques are very similar with very close values for each HRV parameter. However, at higher levels of losses only the NPI method allows to obtain HRV parameters with low error values and low quantity of significant differences in comparison to the values calculated for the same signals without the presence of missing points.

Development of a novel pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry method for the analysis of poly(lactic acid) thermal degradation products

Thermal degradation of PLA is a complex process since it comprises many simultaneous reactions. The use of analytical techniques, such as differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry (TGA), yields useful information but a more sensitive analytical technique would be necessary to identify and quantify the PLA degradation products. In this work the thermal degradation of PLA at high temperatures was studied by using a pyrolyzer coupled to a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometry detection (Py-GC/MS). Pyrolysis conditions (temperature and time) were optimized in order to obtain an adequate chromatographic separation of the compounds formed during heating. The best resolution of chromatographic peaks was obtained by pyrolyzing the material from room temperature to 600 °C during 0.5 s. These conditions allowed identifying and quantifying the major compounds produced during the PLA thermal degradation in inert atmosphere. The strategy followed to select these operation parameters was by using sequential pyrolysis based on the adaptation of mathematical models. By application of this strategy it was demonstrated that PLA is degraded at high temperatures by following a non-linear behaviour. The application of logistic and Boltzmann models leads to good fittings to the experimental results, despite the Boltzmann model provided the best approach to calculate the time at which 50% of PLA was degraded. In conclusion, the Boltzmann method can be applied as a tool for simulating the PLA thermal degradation.

Carotid artery intimal medial thickness, brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation and cardiovascular risk factors in diabetic and non-diabetic indigenous Australians

Background: Indigenous Australians are at high risk for cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Carotid artery intimal medial thickness (CIMT) and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation (FMD) are ultrasound imaging based surrogate markers of cardiovascular risk. This study examines the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors on CIMT and FMD in adult Indigenous Australians with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: One hundred and nineteen Indigenous Australians were recruited. Physical and biochemical markers of cardiovascular risk, together with CIMT and FMD were meausred for all subjects. Results: Fifty-three Indigenous Australians subjects (45%) had type 2 diabetes mellitus. There was a significantly greater mean CIMT in diabetic versus non-diabetic subjects (p = 0.049). In the non-diabetic group with non-parametric analyses, there were significant correlations between CIMT and: age (r = 0.64, p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (r = 0.47, p < 0.001) and non-smokers (r = -0.30, p = 0.018). In the diabetic group, non-parametric analysis showed correlations between CIMT, age (r = 0.36, p = 0.009) and duration of diabetes (r = 0.30, p = 0.035) only. Adjusting forage, sex, smoking and history of cardiovascular disease, Hb(A1c) became the sole significant correlate of CIMT (r = 0.35,p = 0.01) in the diabetic group. In non-parametric analysis, age was the sole significant correlate of FMD (r = -0.31,p = 0.013), and only in non-diabetic subjects. Linear regression analysis showed significant associations between CIMT and age (t = 4.6,p < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (t = 2.6, p = 0.010) and Hb(A1c) (t = 2.6, p = 0.012), smoking (t = 2.1, p = 0.04) and fasting LDL-cholesterol (t = 2.1, p = 0.04). There were no significant associations between FMD and examined cardiovascular risk factors with linear regression analysis Conclusions: CIMT appears to be a useful surrogate marker of cardiovascular risk in this sample of Indigenous Australian subjects, correlating better than FMD with established cardiovascular risk factors. A lifestyle intervention programme may alleviate the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians by reducing central obesity, lowering blood pressure, correcting dyslipidaemia and improving glycaemic control. CIMT may prove to be a useful tool to assess efficacy of such an intervention programme. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.