Where to find 1.5 million yr old ice for the IPICS "Oldest-Ice" ice core

The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this progression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic disturbance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre-site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that positions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to previous ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly suggest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melting. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumulation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700 m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined beforehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity commences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Three-dimensional Vortex Structures on Heated Micro-lattice in a Gas

This paper addresses the microscale heat transfer problem from heated lattice to the gas. A micro-device for enhanced heat transfer is presented and numerically investigated. Thermal creep induces 3-D vortex structures in the vicinity of the lattice. The gas flow is in the slip flow regime (Knudsen number Kn⩽0.1Kn⩽0.1). The simulations are performed using slip flow Navier–Stokes equations with boundary condition formulations proposed by Maxwell and Smoluchowski. In this study the wire thicknesses and distances of the heated lattice are varied. The surface geometrical properties alter significantly heat flux through the surface.

Ar-40/Ar-39 Evidence for Middle Proterozoic (1300-1500 Ma) Slow Cooling of the Southern Black Hills, South Dakota, Midcontinent, North America: Implications for Early Proterozoic P-T Evolution and Posttectonic Magmatism

Ar-40/Ar-39 total gas and plateau dates from muscovite and biotite in the southern Black Hills, South Dakota, provide evidence for a period of Middle Proterozoic slow cooling. Early Proterozoic (1600-1650 Ma) mica dates were obtained from metasedimentary rocks located in a synformal structure between the Harney Peak and Bear Mountain domes and also south of Bear Mountain. Metamorphic rocks from the dome areas and undeformed samples of the similar to 1710 Ma Harney Peak Granite (HPG) yield Middle Proterozoic mica dates (similar to 1270-1500 Ma). Two samples collected between the synform and Bear Mountain dome yield intermediate total gas mica dates of similar to 1550 Ma. We suggest two end-member interpretations to explain the map pattern of cooling ages: (1) subhorizontal slow cooling of an area which exhibits variation in mica Ar retention intervals or (2) mild folding of a Middle Proterozoic (similar to 1500 Ma) similar to 300 degrees C isotherm. According to the second interpretation, the preservation of older dates between the domes may reflect reactivation of a preexisting synformal structure (and downwarping of relatively cold rocks) during a period of approximately east-west contraction and slow uplift during the Middle Proterozoic. The mica data, together with hornblende data from the Black Hills published elsewhere, indicate that the ambient country-rock temperature at the 3-4 kbar depth of emplacement of the HPG was between 350 degrees C and 500 degrees C, suggesting that the average upper crustal geothermal gradient was 25 degrees-40 degrees C/km prior to intrusion. The thermochronologic data suggest HPG emplacement was followed by a similar to 200 m.y. period of stability and tectonic quiescence with little uplift. We propose that crust thickened during the Early Proterozoic was uplifted and erosionally(?) thinned prior to similar to 1710 Ma and that the HPG magma was emplaced into isostatically stable crust of relatively normal thickness. We speculate that uplift and crustal thinning prior to HPG intrusion was the result of differential thinning of the subcrustal lithosphere beneath the Black Hills. If so, this process would have also caused an increase in mantle heat flux across the Moho and triggered vapor-absent melting of biotite to produce the HPG magma. This scenario for posttectonic granite generation is supported, in part, by the fact that in the whole of the Black Hills, the HPG is spatially associated with the deepest exposed Early Proterozoic country rock.

A Numerical Investigation of the Gulf Stream and Its Meanders in Response to Cold Air Outbreaks

The three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is used to examine the modification of the Gulf Stream and its meanders by cold air outbreaks. Two types of Gulf Stream meanders are found in the model. Meanders on the shoreward side of the Gulf Stream are baroclinically unstable. They are affected little by the atmospheric forcing because their energy source is stored at the permanent thermocline, well below the influence of the surface forcing. Meanders on the seaward side of the stream are both barotropically and baroclinically unstable. The energy feeding these meanders is stored at the surface front separating the Gulf Stream and the Sargasso Seal which is greatly reduced in case of cold air outbreaks. Thus, meanders there reduce strength and also seem to slow their downstream propagation due to the southward Ekman flow. Heat budget calculations suggest two almost separable processes. The oceanic heal released to the atmosphere during these severe cooling episodes comes almost exclusively from the upper water column. Transport of heat by meanders from the Gulf Stream to the shelf, though it is large, does not disrupt the principal balance. It is balanced nicely with the net heat transport in the downstream direction.

Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

A Model Study of the Seasonal Circulation in the Gulf of Maine

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Gulf of Maine and its seasonal transition in response to wind, surface heat flux, river discharge, and the M-2 tide. The model has an orthogonal-curvature linear grid in the horizontal with variable spacing from 3 km nearshore to 7 km offshore and 19 levels in the vertical. It is initialized and forced at the open boundary with model results from the East Coast Forecast System. The first experiment is forced by monthly climatological wind and heat flux from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set; discharges from the Saint John, Penobscot, Kennebec, and Merrimack Rivers are added in the second experiment; the semidiurnal lunar tide (M-2) is included as part of the open boundary forcing in the third experiment. It is found that the surface heat flux plays an important role in regulating the annual cycle of the circulation in the Gulf of Maine. The spinup of the cyclonic circulation between April and June is likely caused by the differential heating between the interior gulf and the exterior shelf/slope region. From June to December the cyclonic circulation continues to strengthen, but gradually shrinks in size. When winter cooling erodes the stratification, the cyclonic circulation penetrates deeper into the water column. The circulation quickly spins down from December to February as most of the energy is consumed by bottom friction. While inclusion of river discharge changes details of the circulation pattern, the annual evolution of the circulation is largely unaffected. On the other hand, inclusion of the tide results in not only the anticyclonic circulation on Georges Bank but also modifications to the seasonal circulation.

Tidally Driven Exchange in an Archipelago Strait: Biological and Optical Responses

Measurements in San Bernardino Strait, one of two major connections between the Pacific Ocean and the interior waters of the Philippine Archipelago, captured 2-3 m s(-1) tidal currents that drove vertical mixing and net landward transport. A TRIAXUS towed profiling vehicle equipped with physical and optical sensors was used to repeatedly map subregions within the strait, employing survey patterns designed to resolve tidal variability of physical and optical properties. Strong flow over the sill between Luzon and Capul islands resulted in upward transport and mixing of deeper high-salinity, low-oxygen, high-particle-and-nutrient-concentration water into the upper water column, landward of the sill. During the high-velocity ebb flow, topography influences the vertical distribution of water, but without the diapycnal mixing observed during flood tide. The surveys captured a net landward flux of water through the narrowest part of the strait. The tidally varying velocities contribute to strong vertical transport and diapycnal mixing of the deeper water into the upper layer, contributing to the observed higher phytoplankton biomass within the interior of the strait.

Kuroshio Intrusion and the Circulation in the South China Sea

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) and its seasonal transition. Kuroshio enters ( leaves) the SCS through the southern ( northern) portion of the Luzon Strait. The annually averaged net volume flux through the Luzon Strait is similar to2 Sv into the SCS with seasonal reversals. The inflow season is from May to January with the maximum intrusion of Kuroshio water reaching the western SCS during fall in compensation of summertime surface offshore transport associated with coastal upwelling. From February to April the net transport reverses from the SCS to the Pacific. The intruded Kuroshio often forms an anticyclonic current loop west of the Luzon Strait. The current loop separates near the Dongsha Islands with the northward branch continuously feeding the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) near the shelf break and the westward branch becoming the South China Sea Branch of Kuroshio on the slope, which is most apparent in the fall. The SCSWC appears from December to February on the seaward side of the shelf break, flowing eastward against the prevailing wind. Diagnosis shows that the onshore Ekman transport due to northeasterly monsoon generates upwelling when moving upslope, and the particular distributions of the density and sea level associated with the cross shelf motion supports the SCSWC.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 1. Simulations and Comparison with Observations

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation features in the Pearl River Estuary and their responses to tide, river discharge, wind, and heat flux in the winter dry and summer wet seasons. The model has an orthogonal curvilinear grid in the horizontal plane with variable spacing from 0.5 km in the estuary to 1 km on the shelf and 15 sigma levels in the vertical direction. The initial conditions and the subtidal open boundary forcing are obtained from an associated larger-scale model of the northern South China Sea. Buoyancy forcing uses the climatological monthly heat fluxes and river discharges, and both the climatological monthly wind and the realistic wind are used in the sensitivity experiments. The tidal forcing is represented by sinusoidal functions with the observed amplitudes and phases. In this paper, the simulated tide is first examined. The simulated seasonal distributions of the salinity, as well as the temporal variations of the salinity and velocity over a tidal cycle are described and then compared with the in situ survey data from July 1999 and January 2000. The model successfully reproduces the main hydrodynamic processes, such as the stratification, mixing, frontal dynamics, summer upwelling, two-layer gravitational circulation, etc., and the distributions of hydrodynamic parameters in the Pearl River Estuary and coastal waters for both the winter and the summer season.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Effects of Surface Forcing on Interannual Variability of the Fall Phytoplankton Bloom in the Gulf of Maine Revealed Using a Process-Oriented Model

SeaWiFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) chlorophyll data revealed strong interannual variability in fall phytoplankton dynamics in the Gulf of Maine, with 3 general features in any one year: (1) rapid chlorophyll increases in response to storm events in fall; (2) gradual chlorophyll increases in response to seasonal wind-and cooling-induced mixing that gradually deepens the mixed layer; and (3) the absence of any observable fall bloom. We applied a mixed-layer box model and a 1-dimensional physical-biological numerical model to examine the influence of physical forcing (surface wind, heat flux, and freshening) on the mixed-layer dynamics and its impact on the entrainment of deep-water nutrients and thus on the appearance of fall bloom. The model results suggest that during early fall, the surface mixed-layer depth is controlled by both wind-and cooling-induced mixing. Strong interannual variability in mixed-layer depth has a direct impact on short-and long-term vertical nutrient fluxes and thus the fall bloom. Phytoplankton concentrations over time are sensitive to initial pre-bloom profiles of nutrients. The strength of the initial stratification can affect the modeled phytoplankton concentration, while the timing of intermittent freshening events is related to the significant interannual variability of fall blooms.