Iowa Flood Mitigation Board Annual Report, 2015

The Iowa Flood Mitigation Program is created within Code of Iowa, Chapter 418. The Program seeks to provide funds for fl ood mitigation projects that otherwise would not be funded. The Flood Mitigation Board is responsible for the implementation of Code of Iowa Chapter 418. The membership of the Board is comprised of four voting public members appointed by the Governor, five voting members representing state agencies, four non-voting ex officio members of the legislature, and one non-voting ex officio member representing a state agency.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Protéger la main au travail : une exposition itinérante ou l'utilisation d'un moyen de communication dans les actions de prévention

Après une revue de la littérature concernant les médias utilisés dans le cadre de campagne de prévention, le matériel d'exposition est présenté. Le contenu et les moyens mis en oeuvre ne sont traités que dans la mesure où ils influencent directement la présentation du matériel. Enfin pour clore ce travail, une discussion concernant les possibilités et difficultés d'évaluation de ces actions de diffusion de l'information. [Auteur, p. 2]

ML estimator and hybrid beamformer for multipath and interference mitigation in GNSS receivers

This paper addresses the estimation of the code-phase(pseudorange) and the carrier-phase of the direct signal received from a direct-sequence spread-spectrum satellite transmitter. Thesignal is received by an antenna array in a scenario with interferenceand multipath propagation. These two effects are generallythe limiting error sources in most high-precision positioning applications.A new estimator of the code- and carrier-phases is derivedby using a simplified signal model and the maximum likelihood(ML) principle. The simplified model consists essentially ofgathering all signals, except for the direct one, in a component withunknown spatial correlation. The estimator exploits the knowledgeof the direction-of-arrival of the direct signal and is much simplerthan other estimators derived under more detailed signal models.Moreover, we present an iterative algorithm, that is adequate for apractical implementation and explores an interesting link betweenthe ML estimator and a hybrid beamformer. The mean squarederror and bias of the new estimator are computed for a numberof scenarios and compared with those of other methods. The presentedestimator and the hybrid beamforming outperform the existingtechniques of comparable complexity and attains, in manysituations, the Cramér–Rao lower bound of the problem at hand.

Kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskenta kunnassa

Kiihtyvän kasvihuoneilmiön aiheuttama ilmaston lämpeneminen on modernin yhteiskunnan suurimpia haasteita. Ympäristöteknologian tavoitteena on hidastaa tämän ilmiön haitallisia vaikutuksia maailmanlaajuisesti, kansallisesti sekäkunnallisella tasolla. Tässä työssä on selvitetty, kuinka kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskenta toteutetaan ja voidaanko siitä saada luotettavia tuloksia. Lisäksi tulosten pohjalta on laadittu kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kehitysennuste sekä toimenpide-ehdotus päästöjen leikkaamiseksi. Esimerkkikuntana on Lappeenrannan kaupunki ja päästölaskenta on kohdistettu vuoteen 2004. Lappeenrannan kaupungin alueen kasvihuonekaasupäästöt vuonna 2004 olivat 1 156 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Alueen luonnon nieluvaikutus oli 23 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Laskennassa käytetty aineisto, eli yritysten ja kunnallisten toimintojen päästö- ja polttoainetiedot, saatiin kirjallisuudesta, virallislähteistä sekä henkilökohtaisina tiedonantoina. Laskentaohjelmistona käytettiin Suomen Kuntaliiton kehittämää Excel-pohjaista kasvihuonekaasu-ja energiataseohjelmisto KASVENER:ia. Työssä on osoitettu, että kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskennan tarkkuus ja onnistuminen ovat riippuvaisia käytettävissä olevista resursseista, ennen kaikkea laskennan lähtötietojen laajuudesta ja tarkkuudesta. Laskentatuloksista selviää, että esimerkkikunnan kasvihuonekaasupäästöt ovat kasvaneet Suomen keskiarvoa vastaavalla tavalla. Toimenpide-ehdotuksia listatessa kävi lisäksi ilmi, että kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen leikkaaminen on melko helppoa olemassa olevalla teknologialla tiettyyn pisteeseen asti. Isompien tavoitteiden saavuttaminen edellyttää laajamittaisia investointeja ja kunnan infrastruktuurin muuttamista.

Rousseau's Child: Preschoolers Expect Strangers to Favor Prosocial Actions

Modern thinking about human nature is notoriously divided between two contradictory notions: The Hobbesian tradition portrays men as driven by selfish desires, while the Rousseauian tradition recognizes altruistic proclivities as truemotivations to cooperate. We tested preschoolers' predictions about the prosocial or antisocial manner in which people would behave toward each other. Four stories were presented to 3- and 4-year-old children. In each story, the protagonists could either cooperate, act in terms of their own interests, or adopt a behavior unrelated to the ongoing scenario. Children as young as 3 years of age expected the protagonists to behave prosocially - and even more so if the protagonists were female. The results suggest that, even at an early age, children are inclined to adopt a "Rousseau-like" stance rather than a "suspicious" or "pessimistic" Hobbesian stance.

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.

Low-frequency transcranial magnetic stimulation over left dorsal premotor cortex improves the dynamic control of visuospatially cued actions.

Left rostral dorsal premotor cortex (rPMd) and supramarginal gyrus (SMG) have been implicated in the dynamic control of actions. In 12 right-handed healthy individuals, we applied 30 min of low-frequency (1 Hz) repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over left rPMd to investigate the involvement of left rPMd and SMG in the rapid adjustment of actions guided by visuospatial cues. After rTMS, subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while making spatially congruent button presses with the right or left index finger in response to a left- or right-sided target. Subjects were asked to covertly prepare motor responses as indicated by a directional cue presented 1 s before the target. On 20% of trials, the cue was invalid, requiring subjects to readjust their motor plan according to the target location. Compared with sham rTMS, real rTMS increased the number of correct responses in invalidly cued trials. After real rTMS, task-related activity of the stimulated left rPMd showed increased task-related coupling with activity in ipsilateral SMG and the adjacent anterior intraparietal area (AIP). Individuals who showed a stronger increase in left-hemispheric premotor-parietal connectivity also made fewer errors on invalidly cued trials after rTMS. The results suggest that rTMS over left rPMd improved the ability to dynamically adjust visuospatial response mapping by strengthening left-hemispheric connectivity between rPMd and the SMG-AIP region. These results support the notion that left rPMd and SMG-AIP contribute toward dynamic control of actions and demonstrate that low-frequency rTMS can enhance functional coupling between task-relevant brain regions and improve some aspects of motor performance.