How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming?

Climate models provide compelling evidence that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at present rates, then key global temperature thresholds (such as the European Union limit of two degrees of warming since pre-industrial times) are very likely to be crossed in the next few decades. However, there is relatively little attention paid to whether, should a dangerous temperature level be exceeded, it is feasible for the global temperature to then return to safer levels in a usefully short time. We focus on the timescales needed to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases and associated temperatures back below potentially dangerous thresholds, using a state-of-the-art general circulation model. This analysis is extended with a simple climate model to provide uncertainty bounds. We find that even for very large reductions in emissions, temperature reduction is likely to occur at a low rate. Policy-makers need to consider such very long recovery timescales implicit in the Earth system when formulating future emission pathways that have the potential to 'overshoot' particular atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and, more importantly, related temperature levels that might be considered dangerous.

Insights into dietary flavonoids as molecular templates for the design of anti-platelet drugs

Flavonoids are low-molecular weight, aromatic compounds derived from fruits, vegetables, and other plant components. The consumption of these phytochemicals has been reported to be associated with reduced cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, attributed to their anti-inflammatory, anti-proliferative, and anti-thrombotic actions. Flavonoids exert these effects by a number of mechanisms which include attenuation of kinase activity mediated at the cell-receptor level and/or within cells, and are characterized as broad-spectrum kinase inhibitors. Therefore, flavonoid therapy for CVD is potentially complex; the use of these compounds as molecular templates for the design of selective and potent small-molecule inhibitors may be a simpler approach to treat this condition. Flavonoids as templates for drug design are, however, poorly exploited despite the development of analogues based on the flavonol, isoflavonone, and isoflavanone subgroups. Further exploitation of this family of compounds is warranted due to a structural diversity that presents great scope for creating novel kinase inhibitors. The use of computational methodologies to define the flavonoid pharmacophore together with biological investigations of their effects on kinase activity, in appropriate cellular systems, is the current approach to characterize key structural features that will inform drug design. This focussed review highlights the potential of flavonoids to guide the design of clinically safer, more selective, and potent small-molecule inhibitors of cell signalling, applicable to anti-platelet therapy.

Pesticide-handling practices of smallholder coffee farmers in Eastern Jamaica

Pesticide use among smallholder coffee producers in Jamaica has been associated with significant occupational health effects. Research on pesticide handling practices, however, has been scarce, especially in eastern Jamaica. This explorative study aims at filling this gap and provides a first basis to develop effective interventions to promote a safer pesticide use. A random sample of 81 coffee farmers was surveyed. The majority of farmers reported to suffer from at least one health symptom associated with pesticide handling, but safety practices were scarcely adopted. There was also the risk that other household members and the wider local community are exposed to pesticides. The lack of training on pesticide management, the role of health services and the cost for protective equipment seemed to be the most significant factors that influence current pesticide handling practices in eastern Jamaica. Further research is recommended to develop a systemic understanding of farmer���s behaviour to provide a more solid basis for the development of future intervention programmes.

Evolutionary and revolutionary effects of transcomputation

Mathematics in Defence 2011 Abstract. We review transreal arithmetic and present transcomplex arithmetic. These arithmetics have no exceptions. This leads to incremental improvements in computer hardware and software. For example, the range of real numbers, encoded by floating-point bits, is doubled when all of the Not-a-Number(NaN) states, in IEEE 754 arithmetic, are replaced with real numbers. The task of programming such systems is simplified and made safer by discarding the unordered relational operator,leaving only the operators less-than, equal-to, and greater than. The advantages of using a transarithmetic in a computation, or transcomputation as we prefer to call it, may be had by making small changes to compilers and processor designs. However, radical change is possible by exploiting the reliability of transcomputations to make pipelined dataflow machines with a large number of cores. Our initial designs are for a machine with order one million cores. Such a machine can complete the execution of multiple in-line programs each clock tick

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects��� average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an ���economic anomaly��� emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Dom��nech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; K��hberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

From farmers��� perspective : pesticide use and pest control

Many studies have shown that farmers in developing countries often overuse pesticides and do not adopt safety practices. Policies and interventions to promote a safer use of pesticides are often based on a limited understanding of the farmers��� own perspective of pesticide use. This often results in ineffective policies and the persistence of significant pesticide-related health and environmental problems, especially in developing countries. This chapter explores potentials and limitations of different approaches to study pesticide use in agriculture from the farmers��� perspective. In contrast to the reductionist and mono-disciplinary approaches often adopted, this chapter calls for integrative methodological approaches to provide a realistic and thorough understanding of the farmers��� perspective on pesticide use and illustrates the added value of such an approach with three case studies of pesticide use in Iran, India, and Colombia.

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Self-concept clarity and compulsive Internet use: the role of preference for virtual interactions and employment status in British and North-American samples

Background and Aims Compulsive Internet Use (CIU) describes a maladaptive relationship with the Internet characterised by loss of control and conflict. Although also affecting adults, most studies use teenage samples, and theoretical development on risk factors is scarce. According to Davis (2001), the social connectivity function of the Internet is key in identifying traits associated with CIU. Since Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) is strongly related to social anxiety, and virtual interactions allow ���self-edition���, we hypothesized that individuals low in SCC could choose virtual interactions as safer alternative to satisfy their social needs. This could in turn increase the risk of CIU. Building on a previous study, we also expected CIU to be more harmful in the unemployed. Methods We collected samples from the UK (N���=���532) and US (N���=���502) with equal distribution of employed and unemployed individuals. We ran Measurement Invariance tests to confirm that the constructs were equivalent across countries. Subsequently, we conducted mediation and moderation analysis to test our hypothesis with Multigroup Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Results Measurement Invariance was confirmed. The relationship between SCC and CIU was partially mediated by preference of virtual interactions in both countries. This preference was significantly related to lower social support. Short term unemployment seemed to accentuate the negative impact of CIU on life satisfaction in both countries, although only marginally significantly in the US. The unemployed reported significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. Conclusion We demonstrated that SCC is a key vulnerability factor to CIU in adults, and confirmed the additional risks for the unemployed.

Differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani in the isolated rat muscle: a multiple comparison study using simultaneous confidence intervals

In the present work a comparative quantitative evaluation of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani was performed, encompassing: atracurium, cisatracurium, mivacurium, pancuronium, rocuronium and vecuronium. The sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat was used, in vitro. Twitches were evoked at 0.1 Hz and tetani at 50 Hz. The differential effects of the studied compounds on twitches and tetani were statistically compared using simultaneous confidence intervals for the ratios between mean IC(50) for the block of twitches and mean IC(50) for the block of tetani. The results of ratios of mean IC(50) together with their corresponding 95% simultaneous confidence intervals were: vecuronium: 2.5 (1.8-3.5); mivacurium: 3.8 (3.0-4.9); pancuronium: 3.9 (2.0-7.6); rocuronium: 6.1 (3.8-9.9); atracurium: 9.0 (6.4-12.6); cisatracurium: 13.1 (6.0-28.4). Using the criteria that neuromuscular blockers displaying disjunct confidence intervals for the ratios of mean IC(50) differ statistically with regard to differential effects on twitches and tetani, significant differences in ratios of IC(50) were detected in the following cases: vecuronium vs. rocuronium, vs. atracurium and vs. cisatracurium and mivacurium vs: cisatracurium and vs. atracurium. The results show that the magnitude of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani, as evaluated in the present work in the form of ratios of mean IC(50), does not depend on the chemical structure (comparing steroidal and isoquinolinic compounds), but seems to depend on differential pre- and post-synaptic effects of the compounds. It is also suggested that the greater the ability of a compound to block twitches and tetani in a differential manner, the safer is the compound from the clinical anesthesiology viewpoint.

Strategier som kan f��rb��ttra sjuksk��terskors kommunikation vid ��verrapportering inom somatisk slutenv��rd : En litteratur��versikt

Bakgrund: Sjuksk��terskor har i sitt dagliga arbete till uppgift att ge och ta emot rapport om patienterna hen v��rdar. En god kommunikation kr��vs f��r att s��kerst��lla att relevant information f��rmedlas och inte patients��kerheten hotas. Syfte: Att beskriva strategier f��r hur kommunikationen kan f��rb��ttras vid ��verrapportering mellan sjuksk��terskor inom den somatiska slutenv��rden. Metod: Litteratur��versikten ��r baserad p�� 15 vetenskapliga artiklar med kvalitativ, kvantitativ och mixad ansats. Artiklarna identifierades via s��kningar i databaserna Cinahl, PubMed och Web of Science. Resultat: Tre strategier framkom: personlig ��verrapportering, anv��ndandet av standardiserade formul��r och ��verrapportering vid patientens s��ng. Strategierna gav en effektivare, s��krare och mer tidssparande ��verrapportering. Slutsats: En god kommunikation mellan sjuksk��terskorna ��r oerh��rt viktigt f��r att bibeh��lla en trygg och s��ker v��rd f��r patienterna. F��r att f�� en f��rb��ttrad kommunikation mellan sjuksk��terskor vid ��verrapportering kan olika strategier anv��ndas. D�� sjuksk��terskorna ofta har en h��g arbetsbelastning s�� kr��vs det att ��verrapporteringarna ��r strukturerade f��r att inte tappa bort viktig information.

Describing Web Service Architectures through Design-by-Contract

Architectural description languages (ADLs) are used to specify a high-level, compositional view of a software application, specifying how a system is to be composed from coarse-grain components. ADLs usually come equipped with a formal dynamic semantics, facilitating specification and analysis of distributed and event-based systems. In this paper, we describe the TrustME, an ADL framework that provides both a process and a structural view of web service-based systems. We use Petri-net descriptions to give a dynamic view of business workflow for web service collaboration. We adapt the approach of Schmidt to define a form of Meyer's design-by-contract for configuring workflow architectures. This serves as a configuration-level means of constructing safer, more robust systems.

Protecting Your Search Privacy: A Lesson Plan

Each year search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo, complete trillions of search queries online. Students are especially dependent on these search tools because of their popularity, convenience and accessibility. However, what students are unaware of, by choice or naivet�� is the amount of personal information that is collected during each search session, how that data is used and who is interested in their online behavior profile. Privacy policies are frequently updated in favor of the search companies but are lengthy and often are perused briefly or ignored entirely with little thought about how personal web habits are being exploited for analytics and marketing. As an Information Literacy instructor, and a member of the Electronic Frontier Foundation, I believe in the importance of educating college students and web users in general that they have a right to privacy online. Class discussions on the topic of web privacy have yielded an interesting perspective on internet search usage. Students are unaware of how their online behavior is recorded and have consistently expressed their hesitancy to use tools that disguise or delete their IP address because of the stigma that it may imply they have something to hide or are engaging in illegal activity. Additionally, students fear they will have to surrender the convenience of uber connectivity in their applications to maintain their privacy. The purpose of this lightning presentation is to provide educators with a lesson plan highlighting and simplifying the privacy terms for the three major search engines, Google, Bing and Yahoo. This presentation focuses on what data these search engines collect about users, how that data is used and alternative search solutions, like DuckDuckGo, for increased privacy. Students will directly benefit from this lesson because informed internet users can protect their data, feel safer online and become more effective web searchers.

Rotinas para a otimizacao experimental de misturas

No cen��rio atual, onde a globaliza����o, aliada a um maior n��vel de exig��ncia por parte do cliente, imp��em ��s empresas um maior empenho por competitividade, a agdidade no desenvolvimento e otimiza����o de produtos torna-se crucial para a sobreviv��ncia das mesmas no mercado. Neste contexto, procurou-se compilar v��rias t��cnicas utilizadas em E n g e h dd Qd& em um m��todo integrado para a Ot+o Expmmid de MWtwa. Essas t��cnicas fornecem resultados muito mais r��pidos e econ��micos do que a tradicional pr��tica de variar um componente de cada vez na mistura, devido ao menor n��mero de ensaios necess��rios. Entretanto, apesar de n��o serem t��o recentes, as ferramentas aplic��veis �� otimiza����o de misturas n��o t��m sido utilizadas pelo seu maior benefici��rio (a ind��stria), provavelmente por falta de divulga����o de sua exist��ncia, ou, principalmente, devido �� complexidade dos c��lculos envolvidos. Dessa forma, al��m do m��todo proposto, desenvolveu-se tamb��m um sofiwa~q ue irnplementa todas os passos sugeridos, com o intuito de facilitar ainda mais a aplica����o dos mesmos por pessoas n��o especializadas em t��cnicas estat��sticas. Atrav��s do software (OptiMix), o m��todo foi testado em uma situa����o real e em um estudo comparativo com um relato da literatura, a fim de testar sua validade, necessidade de adapta����es e consist��ncia dos resultados. A avalia��io dos estudos de caso demonstrou que o m��todo proposto fornece resultados coerentes com os de outras t��cnicas alternativas, com a vantagem de o usu��rio n��o precisar realizar c��lculos, evitando assim, erros e agilizando o processo de otimiza����o.

Satisfa����o dos clientes de terceira idade com o auto-atendimento em uma ag��ncia do Banco do Brasil

Este trabalho de conclus��o tem como seu objetivo principal verificar os servi��os que s��o oferecidos nas Salas de Auto-Atendimento (SAA) para a terceira idade, em uma ag��ncia do Banco do Brasil, em Porto Alegre. Interessa saber como �� a percep����o desse p��blico com rela����o ao tema proposto para sugerir �� institui����o banc��ria melhorias, bem como comprova����o em futuros estudos. Diante das impress��es dos consumidores dos produtos e servi��os oferecidos no ambiente ora analisado, percebe-se que este p��blico tem pouca familiaridade quando lida com a automa����o banc��ria, embora outros problemas paralelos foram destacados, como a necessidade permanente de funcion��rios para auxili��-los durante as opera����es, as filas ocasionando cansa��o f��sico, a seguran��a nas SAA, a pouca privacidade quando utilizam as m��quinas e a necessidade de conforto nesse ambiente, como a disponibiliza����o de cadeiras, bebedouros e vasos com plantas. A grande maioria ainda prefere o atendimento tradicional, ou seja, o contato humano. Para este p��blico, este �� o caminho mais seguro e agrad��vel para acessar os produtos e servi��os banc��rios. Notou-se a reduzida oferta de estudos sobre o assunto quando se trata de relacionar a automa����o banc��ria versus terceira idade, bem como a inexist��ncia de uma pol��tica diferenciada de atendimento para esse p��blico.

Metodologia para avalia����o de cinem��tica de part��culas gasosas em fluidos de viscosidade vari��vel com o tempo e sua aplica����o na constru����o de po��os de petr��leo

Many challenges have been presented in petroleum industry. One of them is the preventing of fluids influx during drilling and cementing. Gas migration can occur as result of pressure imbalance inside the well when well pressure becomes lower than gas zone pressure and in cementing operation this occurs during cement slurry transition period (solid to fluid). In this work it was developed a methodology to evaluate gas migration during drilling and cementing operations. It was considered gel strength concept and through experimental tests determined gas migration initial time. A mechanistic model was developed to obtain equation that evaluates bubble displacement through the fluid while it gels. Being a time-dependant behavior, dynamic rheological measurements were made to evaluate viscosity along the time. For drilling fluids analyzed it was verified that it is desirable fast and non-progressive gelation in order to reduce gas migration without affect operational window (difference between pore and fracture pressure). For cement slurries analyzed, the most appropriate is that remains fluid for more time below critical gel strength, maintaining hydrostatic pressure above gas zone pressure, and after that gels quickly, reducing gas migration. The model developed simulates previously operational conditions and allow changes in operational and fluids design to obtain a safer condition for well construction