New directions in Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis

Decisions taken in modern organizations are often multi-dimensional, involving multiple decision makers and several criteria measured on different scales. Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods are designed to analyze and to give recommendations in this kind of situations. Among the numerous MCDM methods, two large families of methods are the multi-attribute utility theory based methods and the outranking methods. Traditionally both method families require exact values for technical parameters and criteria measurements, as well as for preferences expressed as weights. Often it is hard, if not impossible, to obtain exact values. Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods designed to help in this type of situations where exact values are not available. Different variants of SMAA allow handling all types of MCDM problems. They support defining the model through uncertain, imprecise, or completely missing values. The methods are based on simulation that is applied to obtain descriptive indices characterizing the problem. In this thesis we present new advances in the SMAA methodology. We present and analyze algorithms for the SMAA-2 method and its extension to handle ordinal preferences. We then present an application of SMAA-2 to an area where MCDM models have not been applied before: planning elevator groups for high-rise buildings. Following this, we introduce two new methods to the family: SMAA-TRI that extends ELECTRE TRI for sorting problems with uncertain parameter values, and SMAA-III that extends ELECTRE III in a similar way. An efficient software implementing these two methods has been developed in conjunction with this work, and is briefly presented in this thesis. The thesis is closed with a comprehensive survey of SMAA methodology including a definition of a unified framework.

Multiple introductions boosted genetic diversity in the invasive range of black cherry (Prunus serotina; Rosaceae).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a North American tree that is rapidly invading European forests. This species was introduced first as an ornamental plant, then it was massively planted by foresters in many countries, but its origins and the process of invasion remain poorly documented. Based on a genetic survey of both native and invasive ranges, the invasion history of black cherry was investigated by identifying putative source populations and then assessing the importance of multiple introductions on the maintenance of gene diversity. METHODS: Genetic variability and structure of 23 populations from the invasive range and 22 populations from the native range were analysed using eight nuclear microsatellite loci and five chloroplast DNA regions. KEY RESULTS: Chloroplast DNA diversity suggests there were multiple introductions from a single geographic region (the north-eastern United States). A low reduction of genetic diversity was observed in the invasive range for both nuclear and plastid genomes. High propagule pressure including both the size and number of introductions shaped the genetic structure in Europe and boosted genetic diversity. Populations from Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany showed high genetic diversity and low differentiation among populations, supporting the hypothesis that numerous introduction events, including multiple individuals and exchanges between sites, have taken place during two centuries of plantation. CONCLUSIONS: This study postulates that the invasive black cherry has originated from east of the Appalachian Mountains (mainly the Allegheny plateau) and its invasiveness in north-western Europe is mainly due to multiple introductions containing high numbers of individuals.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Superiority of the Triple Combination of Bortezomib-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone Over the Dual Combination of Thalidomide-Dexamethasone in Patients With Multiple Myeloma Progressing or Relapsing After Autologous Transplantation: The MMVAR/IFM 2005-04 Randomized Phase III Trial From the Chronic Leukemia Working Party of the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

PURPOSE This prospective multicenter phase III study compared the efficacy and safety of a triple combination (bortezomib-thalidomide-dexamethasone [VTD]) versus a dual combination (thalidomide-dexamethasone [TD]) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) progressing or relapsing after autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). PATIENTS AND METHODS Overall, 269 patients were randomly assigned to receive bortezomib (1.3 mg/m(2) intravenous bolus) or no bortezomib for 1 year, in combination with thalidomide (200 mg per day orally) and dexamethasone (40 mg orally once a day on 4 days once every 3 weeks). Bortezomib was administered on days 1, 4, 8, and 11 with a 10-day rest period (day 12 to day 21) for eight cycles (6 months), and then on days 1, 8, 15, and 22 with a 20-day rest period (day 23 to day 42) for four cycles (6 months). Results Median time to progression (primary end point) was significantly longer with VTD than TD (19.5 v 13.8 months; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.80; P = .001), the complete response plus near-complete response rate was higher (45% v 25%; P = .001), and the median duration of response was longer (17.2 v 13.4 months; P = .03). The 24-month survival rate was in favor of VTD (71% v 65%; P = .093). Grade 3 peripheral neuropathy was more frequent with VTD (29% v 12%; P = .001) as were the rates of grades 3 and 4 infection and thrombocytopenia. CONCLUSION VTD was more effective than TD in the treatment of patients with MM with progressive or relapsing disease post-ASCT but was associated with a higher incidence of grade 3 neurotoxicity.

Clinical Utility of the 2 New Scales of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA): A Naturalistic, Prospective Study in a Psychiatric Unit for Adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to assess the clinical usefulness of the emotional symptoms (Emo) and externalizing problems (Ext) scales compared with the Total score on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). METHODS: The HoNOSCA was rated at admission and discharge for 260 adolescent inpatients. The primary outcomes assessed were (a) the sensitivity of the 3 HoNOSCA scores to clinical improvement; and (b) the between diagnoses discriminative value of these scores. RESULTS: Analyses of variances [2 (time: admission vs. discharge) ×5 (diagnostic groups)] revealed a main effect of time for the 3 scores, a main effect of the diagnostic group for the Total and Ext scores, and an interaction effect between time and diagnosis for the Emo score. A moderate correlation was observed between the change in Ext and Emo scores between admission and discharge. DISCUSSION: These 2 new scales of the HoNOSCA demonstrated good clinical utility and the ability to assess different aspects of clinical improvements. A significant discriminative value of both scores was observed. SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES: The clinical utility of the 2 new scales on the HoNOSCA was established. These 2 new scales provided a sensitive measure of clinical outcome for assessing improvement between admission and discharge on a psychiatric inpatient unit for adolescents, regardless of diagnostic group, and captured additional information about clinical improvements. Adolescents with psychosis and conduct disorders presented with higher externalizing symptoms than those with other disorders, as rated on the HoNOSCA, at admission and discharge. The Emo score differentiated between clinical improvement in patients with psychosis versus eating disorders. LIMITATIONS: The sample in this study represented a homogeneous population of adolescent inpatients, so that further research is needed before these findings can be generalized to outpatients. In addition, the small number of patients in some diagnostic groups did not allow for their inclusion in some of the statistical analyses.

A phase IIa randomised clinical study of GNbAC1, a humanised monoclonal antibody against the envelope protein of multiple sclerosis-associated endogenous retrovirus in multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND: GNbAC1 is an immunoglobulin (IgG4) humanised monoclonal antibody against multiple sclerosis-associated retrovirus (MSRV)-Env, a protein of endogenous retroviral origin, expressed in multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions, which is pro-inflammatory and inhibits oligodendrocyte precursor cell differentiation. OBJECTIVE: This is a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled dose-escalation study followed by a six-month open-label phase to test GNbAC1 in MS patients. The primary objective was to assess GNbAC1 safety in MS patients, and the other objectives were pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic assessments. METHODS: Ten MS patients were randomised into two cohorts to receive a single intravenous infusion of GNbAC1/placebo at doses of 2 or 6 mg/kg. Then all patients received five infusions of GNbAC1 at 2 or 6 mg/kg at four-week intervals in an open-label setting. Safety, brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), pharmacokinetics, immunogenicity, cytokines and MSRV RNA expression were studied. RESULTS: All patients completed the study. GNbAC1 was well tolerated in all patients. GNbAC1 pharmacokinetics is dose-linear with mean elimination half-life of 27-37 d. Anti-GNbAC1 antibodies were not detected. Cytokine analysis did not indicate an adverse effect. MSRV-transcripts showed a decline after the start of treatment. Nine patients had stable brain lesions at MRI. CONCLUSION: The safety, pharmacokinetic profile, and pharmacodynamic responses to GNbAC1 are favourable in MS patients over a six-month treatment period.

The Life-World and Its Multiple Realities: Alfred Schütz's Contribution to the Understanding of the Experience of Illness

Alfred Schütz original contribution to the social sciences refers to his analysis of the structure of the "life-world". This article aims to invigorate interest in the work of this author, little known in the field of health psychology. Key concepts of Schütz' approach will be presented in relation to their potential interest to the understanding of the experience of illness. In particular, we develop the main characteristics of the everyday life and its cognitive style, that is, its finite province of meaning. We propose to adopt this notion to define the experience of chronic or serious illness when the individual is confronted to the medical world. By articulating this analysis with literature in health psychology, we argue that Schütz's perspective brings useful insight to the field, namely because of its ability to study meaning constructions by overcoming the trap of solipsism by embracing intersubjectivity. The article concludes by outlining both, the limitations and research perspectives brought by this phenomenological analysis of the experiences of health and illness.

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

Multiple supernumerary teeth not associated with complex syndromes: a retrospective study

Objectives: To determine the epidemiology and describe the clinical and radiographic characteristics, the type of treatment, and the possible delayed appearance of new supernumerary teeth in patients with non-syndromic multiple hyperdontia. Patients and Methods: We conducted a small retrospective observational study of 8 patients diagnosed with nonsyndromic multiple hyperdontia. Multiple hyperdontia not associated to complex syndromes was defined as apparently generally healthy patients with one or more supernumerary teeth in two or more areas. Results: The average patient age was 16.23 years; males predominated (3:1). Multiple hyperodontia with a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 9 supernumerary teeth was found (total: 34 mean: 4.25). The most frequent location was the upper jaw (76.47%). Eumorphic teeth were seen at lower premolar level, while the rest were all heteromorphic. There was altered eruption of the contiguous teeth of 4 of the impacted supernumerary teeth all the rest being asymptomatic. Extraction was the treatment in all patients, and in one of them the delayed appearance of 4 supernumerary teeth was detected. Conclusions: Multiple hyperodontia rarely occurs without being associated with complex syndromes. Prophylactic surgical removal of the supernumerary teeth is generally the treatment of choice.

Task-Driven Activity Reduces the Cortical Activity Space of the Brain: Experiment and Whole-Brain Modeling.

How a stimulus or a task alters the spontaneous dynamics of the brain remains a fundamental open question in neuroscience. One of the most robust hallmarks of task/stimulus-driven brain dynamics is the decrease of variability with respect to the spontaneous level, an effect seen across multiple experimental conditions and in brain signals observed at different spatiotemporal scales. Recently, it was observed that the trial-to-trial variability and temporal variance of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals decrease in the task-driven activity. Here we examined the dynamics of a large-scale model of the human cortex to provide a mechanistic understanding of these observations. The model allows computing the statistics of synaptic activity in the spontaneous condition and in putative tasks determined by external inputs to a given subset of brain regions. We demonstrated that external inputs decrease the variance, increase the covariances, and decrease the autocovariance of synaptic activity as a consequence of single node and large-scale network dynamics. Altogether, these changes in network statistics imply a reduction of entropy, meaning that the spontaneous synaptic activity outlines a larger multidimensional activity space than does the task-driven activity. We tested this model's prediction on fMRI signals from healthy humans acquired during rest and task conditions and found a significant decrease of entropy in the stimulus-driven activity. Altogether, our study proposes a mechanism for increasing the information capacity of brain networks by enlarging the volume of possible activity configurations at rest and reliably settling into a confined stimulus-driven state to allow better transmission of stimulus-related information.

Multicontrast MRI Quantification of Focal Inflammation and Degeneration in Multiple Sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: Local microstructural pathology in multiple sclerosis patients might influence their clinical performance. This study applied multicontrast MRI to quantify inflammation and neurodegeneration in MS lesions. We explored the impact of MRI-based lesion pathology in cognition and disability. METHODS: 36 relapsing-remitting MS subjects and 18 healthy controls underwent neurological, cognitive, behavioural examinations and 3 T MRI including (i) fluid attenuated inversion recovery, double inversion recovery, and magnetization-prepared gradient echo for lesion count; (ii) T1, T2, and T2(*) relaxometry and magnetisation transfer imaging for lesion tissue characterization. Lesions were classified according to the extent of inflammation/neurodegeneration. A generalized linear model assessed the contribution of lesion groups to clinical performances. RESULTS: Four lesion groups were identified and characterized by (1) absence of significant alterations, (2) prevalent inflammation, (3) concomitant inflammation and microdegeneration, and (4) prevalent tissue loss. Groups 1, 3, 4 correlated with general disability (Adj-R (2) = 0.6; P = 0.0005), executive function (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.004), verbal memory (Adj-R (2) = 0.4; P = 0.02), and attention (Adj-R (2) = 0.5; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Multicontrast MRI provides a new approach to infer in vivo histopathology of plaques. Our results support evidence that neurodegeneration is the major determinant of patients' disability and cognitive dysfunction.

Multicontrast connectometry: A new tool to assess cerebellum alterations in early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Cerebellar pathology occurs in late multiple sclerosis (MS) but little is known about cerebellar changes during early disease stages. In this study, we propose a new multicontrast "connectometry" approach to assess the structural and functional integrity of cerebellar networks and connectivity in early MS. METHODS: We used diffusion spectrum and resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) to establish the structural and functional cerebellar connectomes in 28 early relapsing-remitting MS patients and 16 healthy controls (HC). We performed multicontrast "connectometry" by quantifying multiple MRI parameters along the structural tracts (generalized fractional anisotropy-GFA, T1/T2 relaxation times and magnetization transfer ratio) and functional connectivity measures. Subsequently, we assessed multivariate differences in local connections and network properties between MS and HC subjects; finally, we correlated detected alterations with lesion load, disease duration, and clinical scores. RESULTS: In MS patients, a subset of structural connections showed quantitative MRI changes suggesting loss of axonal microstructure and integrity (increased T1 and decreased GFA, P < 0.05). These alterations highly correlated with motor, memory and attention in patients, but were independent of cerebellar lesion load and disease duration. Neither network organization nor rs-fMRI abnormalities were observed at this early stage. CONCLUSION: Multicontrast cerebellar connectometry revealed subtle cerebellar alterations in MS patients, which were independent of conventional disease markers and highly correlated with patient function. Future work should assess the prognostic value of the observed damage. Hum Brain Mapp 36:1609-1619, 2015. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

STRATEGIC-1: A multiple-lines, randomized, open-label GERCOR phase III study in patients with unresectable wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: The management of unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a comprehensive treatment strategy involving several lines of therapy, maintenance, salvage surgery, and treatment-free intervals. Besides chemotherapy (fluoropyrimidine, oxaliplatin, irinotecan), molecular-targeted agents such as anti-angiogenic agents (bevacizumab, aflibercept, regorafenib) and anti-epidermal growth factor receptor agents (cetuximab, panitumumab) have become available. Ultimately, given the increasing cost of new active compounds, new strategy trials are needed to define the optimal use and the best sequencing of these agents. Such new clinical trials require alternative endpoints that can capture the effect of several treatment lines and be measured earlier than overall survival to help shorten the duration and reduce the size and cost of trials. METHODS/DESIGN: STRATEGIC-1 is an international, open-label, randomized, multicenter phase III trial designed to determine an optimally personalized treatment sequence of the available treatment modalities in patients with unresectable RAS wild-type mCRC. Two standard treatment strategies are compared: first-line FOLFIRI-cetuximab, followed by oxaliplatin-based second-line chemotherapy with bevacizumab (Arm A) vs. first-line OPTIMOX-bevacizumab, followed by irinotecan-based second-line chemotherapy with bevacizumab, and by an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor monoclonal antibody with or without irinotecan as third-line treatment (Arm B). The primary endpoint is duration of disease control. A total of 500 patients will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio to one of the two treatment strategies. DISCUSSION: The STRATEGIC-1 trial is designed to give global information on the therapeutic sequences in patients with unresectable RAS wild-type mCRC that in turn is likely to have a significant impact on the management of this patient population. The trial is open for inclusion since August 2013. TRIAL REGISTRATION: STRATEGIC-1 is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01910610, 23 July, 2013. STRATEGIC-1 is registered at EudraCT-No.: 2013-001928-19, 25 April, 2013.

Interleukin-22 is increased in multiple sclerosis patients and targets astrocytes.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidences link T helper 17 (Th17) cells with multiple sclerosis (MS). In this context, interleukin-22 (IL-22), a Th17-linked cytokine, has been implicated in blood brain barrier breakdown and lymphocyte infiltration. Furthermore, polymorphism between MS patients and controls has been recently described in the gene coding for IL-22 binding protein (IL-22BP). Here, we aimed to better characterize IL-22 in the context of MS. METHODS: IL-22 and IL-22BP expressions were assessed by ELISA and qPCR in the following compartments of MS patients and control subjects: (1) the serum, (2) the cerebrospinal fluid, and (3) immune cells of peripheral blood. Identification of the IL-22 receptor subunit, IL-22R1, was performed by immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence in human brain tissues and human primary astrocytes. The role of IL-22 on human primary astrocytes was evaluated using 7-AAD and annexin V, markers of cell viability and apoptosis, respectively. RESULTS: In a cohort of 141 MS patients and healthy control (HC) subjects, we found that serum levels of IL-22 were significantly higher in relapsing MS patients than in HC but also remitting and progressive MS patients. Monocytes and monocyte-derived dendritic cells contained an enhanced expression of mRNA coding for IL-22BP as compared to HC. Using immunohistochemistry and confocal microscopy, we found that IL-22 and its receptor were detected on astrocytes of brain tissues from both control subjects and MS patients, although in the latter, the expression was higher around blood vessels and in MS plaques. Cytometry-based functional assays revealed that addition of IL-22 improved the survival of human primary astrocytes. Furthermore, tumor necrosis factor α-treated astrocytes had a better long-term survival capacity upon IL-22 co-treatment. This protective effect of IL-22 seemed to be conferred, at least partially, by a decreased apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS: We show that (1) there is a dysregulation in the expression of IL-22 and its antagonist, IL-22BP, in MS patients, (2) IL-22 targets specifically astrocytes in the human brain, and (3) this cytokine confers an increased survival of the latter cells.

Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.