Systems medicine and integrated care to combat chronic noncommunicable diseases

We propose an innovative, integrated, cost-effective health system to combat major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular, chronic respiratory, metabolic, rheumatologic and neurologic disorders and cancers, which together are the predominant health problem of the 21st century. This proposed holistic strategy involves comprehensive patient-centered integrated care and multi-scale, multi-modal and multi-level systems approaches to tackle NCDs as a common group of diseases. Rather than studying each disease individually, it will take into account their intertwined gene-environment, socio-economic interactions and co-morbidities that lead to individual-specific complex phenotypes. It will implement a road map for predictive, preventive, personalized and participatory (P4) medicine based on a robust and extensive knowledge management infrastructure that contains individual patient information. It will be supported by strategic partnerships involving all stakeholders, including general practitioners associated with patient-centered care. This systems medicine strategy, which will take a holistic approach to disease, is designed to allow the results to be used globally, taking into account the needs and specificities of local economies and health systems.

Experiences in Monitoring and Assessment of Sustainable Land Management

Although sustainable land management (SLM) is widely promoted to prevent and mitigate land degradation and desertification, its monitoring and assessment (M&A) has received much less attention. This paper compiles methodological approaches which to date have been little reported in the literature. It draws lessons from these experiences and identifies common elements and future pathways as a basis for a global approach. The paper starts with local level methods where the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) framework catalogues SLM case studies. This tool has been included in the local level assessment of Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) and in the EU-DESIRE project. Complementary site-based approaches can enhance an ecological process-based understanding of SLM variation. At national and sub-national levels, a joint WOCAT/LADA/DESIRE spatial assessment based on land use systems identifies the status and trends of degradation and SLM, including causes, drivers and impacts on ecosystem services. Expert consultation is combined with scientific evidence and enhanced where necessary with secondary data and indicator databases. At the global level, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) knowledge from the land (KM:Land) initiative uses indicators to demonstrate impacts of SLM investments. Key lessons learnt include the need for a multi-scale approach, making use of common indicators and a variety of information sources, including scientific data and local knowledge through participatory methods. Methodological consistencies allow cross-scale analyses, and findings are analysed and documented for use by decision-makers at various levels. Effective M&A of SLM [e.g. for United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)] requires a comprehensive methodological framework agreed by the major players.

Critical review of coupled flux formulations for clay membranes based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics

Extensive research conducted over the past several decades has indicated that semipermeable membrane behavior (i.e., the ability of a porous medium to restrict the passage of solutes) may have a significant influence on solute migration through a wide variety of clay-rich soils, including both natural clay formations (aquitards, aquicludes) and engineered clay barriers (e.g., landfill liners and vertical cutoff walls). Restricted solute migration through clay membranes generally has been described using coupled flux formulations based on nonequilibrium (irreversible) thermodynamics. However, these formulations have differed depending on the assumptions inherent in the theoretical development, resulting in some confusion regarding the applicability of the formulations. Accordingly, a critical review of coupled flux formulations for liquid, current, and solutes through a semipermeable clay membrane under isothermal conditions is undertaken with the goals of explicitly resolving differences among the formulations and illustrating the significance of the differences from theoretical and practical perspectives. Formulations based on single-solute systems (i.e., uncharged solute), single-salt systems, and general systems containing multiple cations or anions are presented. Also, expressions relating the phenomenological coefficients in the coupled flux equations to relevant soil properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and effective diffusion coefficient) are summarized for each system. A major difference in the formulations is shown to exist depending on whether counter diffusion or salt diffusion is assumed. This difference between counter and salt diffusion is shown to affect the interpretation of values for the effective diffusion coefficient in a clay membrane based on previously published experimental data. Solute transport theories based on both counter and salt diffusion then are used to re-evaluate previously published column test data for the same clay membrane. The results indicate that, despite the theoretical inconsistency between the counter-diffusion assumption and the salt-diffusion conditions of the experiments, the predictive ability of solute transport theory based on the assumption of counter diffusion is not significantly different from that based on the assumption of salt diffusion, provided that the input parameters used in each theory are derived under the same assumption inherent in the theory. Nonetheless, salt-diffusion theory is fundamentally correct and, therefore, is more appropriate for problems involving salt diffusion in clay membranes. Finally, the fact that solute diffusion cannot occur in an ideal or perfect membrane is not explicitly captured in any of the theoretical expressions for total solute flux in clay membranes, but rather is generally accounted for via inclusion of an effective porosity, n(e), or a restrictive tortuosity factor, tau(r), in the formulation of Fick's first law for diffusion. Both n(e) and tau(r) have been correlated as a linear function of membrane efficiency. This linear correlation is supported theoretically by pore-scale modeling of solid-liquid interactions, but experimental support is limited. Additional data are needed to bolster the validity of the linear correlation for clay membranes. Copyright 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Critical Review of Coupled Flux Formulations for Clay Membranes Based on Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

Extensive research conducted over the past several decades has indicated that semipermeable membrane behavior (i.e., the ability of a porous medium to restrict the passage of solutes) may have a significant influence on solute migration through a wide variety of clay-rich soils, including both natural clay formations (aquitards, aquicludes) and engineered clay barriers (e.g., landfill liners and vertical cutoff walls). Restricted solute migration through clay membranes generally has been described using coupled flux formulations based on nonequilibrium (irreversible) thermodynamics. However, these formulations have differed depending on the assumptions inherent in the theoretical development, resulting in some confusion regarding the applicability of the formulations. Accordingly, a critical review of coupled flux formulations for liquid, current, and solutes through a semipermeable clay membrane under isothermal conditions is undertaken with the goals of explicitly resolving differences among the formulations and illustrating the significance of the differences from theoretical and practical perspectives. Formulations based on single-solute systems (i.e., uncharged solute), single-salt systems, and general systems containing multiple cations or anions are presented. Also, expressions relating the phenomenological coefficients in the coupled flux equations to relevant soil properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and effective diffusion coefficient) are summarized for each system. A major difference in the formulations is shown to exist depending on whether counter diffusion or salt diffusion is assumed. This difference between counter and salt diffusion is shown to affect the interpretation of values for the effective diffusion coefficient in a clay membrane based on previously published experimental data. Solute transport theories based on both counter and salt diffusion then are used to re-evaluate previously published column test data for the same clay membrane. The results indicate that, despite the theoretical inconsistency between the counter-diffusion assumption and the salt-diffusion conditions of the experiments, the predictive ability of solute transport theory based on the assumption of counter diffusion is not significantly different from that based on the assumption of salt diffusion, provided that the input parameters used in each theory are derived under the same assumption inherent in the theory. Nonetheless, salt-diffusion theory is fundamentally correct and, therefore, is more appropriate for problems involving salt diffusion in clay membranes. Finally, the fact that solute diffusion cannot occur in an ideal or perfect membrane is not explicitly captured in any of the theoretical expressions for total solute flux in clay membranes, but rather is generally accounted for via inclusion of an effective porosity, ne, or a restrictive tortuosity factor, tr, in the formulation of Fick's first law for diffusion. Both ne and tr have been correlated as a linear function of membrane efficiency. This linear correlation is supported theoretically by pore-scale modeling of solid-liquid interactions, but experimental support is limited. Additional data are needed to bolster the validity of the linear correlation for clay membranes.

Cortical local and long-range synchronization interplay in human absence seizure initiation

Brain activity relies on transient, fluctuating interactions between segregated neuronal populations. Synchronization within a single and between distributed neuronal clusters reflects the dynamics of these cooperative patterns. Thus absence epilepsy can be used as a model for integrated, large-scale investigation of the emergence of pathological collective dynamics in the brain. Indeed, spike-wave discharges (SWD) of an absence seizure are thought to reflect abnormal cortical hypersynchronization. In this paper, we address two questions: how and where do SWD arise in the human brain? Therefore, we explored the spatio-temporal dynamics of interactions within and between widely distributed cortical sites using magneto-encephalographic recordings of spontaneous absence seizures. We then extracted, from their time-frequency analysis, local synchronization of cortical sources and long-range synchronization linking distant sites. Our analyses revealed a reproducible sequence of 1) long-range desynchronization, 2) increased local synchronization and 3) increased long-range synchronization. Although both local and long-range synchronization displayed different spatio-temporal profiles, their cortical projection within an initiation time window overlap and reveal a multifocal fronto-central network. These observations contradict the classical view of sudden generalized synchronous activities in absence epilepsy. Furthermore, they suggest that brain states transition may rely on multi-scale processes involving both local and distant interactions.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges.

Comparative carbon cycle dynamics of the present and last interglacial

Changes in temperature and carbon dioxide during glacial cycles recorded in Antarctic ice cores are tightly coupled. However, this relationship does not hold for interglacials. While climate cooled towards the end of both the last (Eemian) and present (Holocene) interglacials, CO₂ remained stable during the Eemian while rising in the Holocene. We identify and review twelve biogeochemical mechanisms of terrestrial (vegetation dynamics and CO₂ fertilization, land use, wild fire, accumulation of peat, changes in permafrost carbon, subaerial volcanic outgassing) and marine origin (changes in sea surface temperature, carbonate compensation to deglaciation and terrestrial biosphere regrowth, shallow-water carbonate sedimentation, changes in the soft tissue pump, and methane hydrates), which potentially may have contributed to the CO₂ dynamics during interglacials but which remain not well quantified. We use three Earth System Models (ESMs) of intermediate complexity to compare effects of selected mechanisms on the interglacial CO₂ and δ¹³ CO₂ changes, focusing on those with substantial potential impacts: namely carbonate sedimentation in shallow waters, peat growth, and (in the case of the Holocene) human land use. A set of specified carbon cycle forcings could qualitatively explain atmospheric CO₂ dynamics from 8ka BP to the pre-industrial. However, when applied to Eemian boundary conditions from 126 to 115 ka BP, the same set of forcings led to disagreement with the observed direction of CO₂ changes after 122 ka BP. This failure to simulate late-Eemian CO₂ dynamics could be a result of the imposed forcings such as prescribed CaCO₃ accumulation and/or an incorrect response of simulated terrestrial carbon to the surface cooling at the end of the interglacial. These experiments also reveal that key natural processes of interglacial CO₂ dynamics eshallow water CaCO₃ accumulation, peat and permafrost carbon dynamics are not well represented in the current ESMs. Global-scale modeling of these long-term carbon cycle components started only in the last decade, and uncertainty in parameterization of these mechanisms is a main limitation in the successful modeling of interglacial CO₂ dynamics.

Global Optimization with Sparse and Local Gaussian Process Models

We present a novel surrogate model-based global optimization framework allowing a large number of function evaluations. The method, called SpLEGO, is based on a multi-scale expected improvement (EI) framework relying on both sparse and local Gaussian process (GP) models. First, a bi-objective approach relying on a global sparse GP model is used to determine potential next sampling regions. Local GP models are then constructed within each selected region. The method subsequently employs the standard expected improvement criterion to deal with the exploration-exploitation trade-off within selected local models, leading to a decision on where to perform the next function evaluation(s). The potential of our approach is demonstrated using the so-called Sparse Pseudo-input GP as a global model. The algorithm is tested on four benchmark problems, whose number of starting points ranges from 102 to 104. Our results show that SpLEGO is effective and capable of solving problems with large number of starting points, and it even provides significant advantages when compared with state-of-the-art EI algorithms.

Importance of Nuclear Data Uncertainties in Criticality Calculations

To study the propagation of the uncertainty from basic data across different scale and physics phenomena -> through complex coupled multi-physics and multi-scale simulations

On the Extension of the Analytic Nodal Diffusion Solver ANDES to Sodium Fast Reactors

Within the framework of the Collaborative Project for a European Sodium Fast Reactor, the reactor physics group at UPM is working on the extension of its in-house multi-scale advanced deterministic code COBAYA3 to Sodium Fast Reactors (SFR). COBAYA3 is a 3D multigroup neutron kinetics diffusion code that can be used either as a pin-by-pin code or as a stand-alone nodal code by using the analytic nodal diffusion solver ANDES. It is coupled with thermalhydraulics codes such as COBRA-TF and FLICA, allowing transient analysis of LWR at both fine-mesh and coarse-mesh scales. In order to enable also 3D pin-by-pin and nodal coupled NK-TH simulations of SFR, different developments are in progress. This paper presents the first steps towards the application of COBAYA3 to this type of reactors. ANDES solver, already extended to triangular-Z geometry, has been applied to fast reactor steady-state calculations. The required cross section libraries were generated with ERANOS code for several configurations. The limitations encountered in the application of the Analytic Coarse Mesh Finite Difference (ACMFD) method –implemented inside ANDES– to fast reactors are presented and the sensitivity of the method when using a high number of energy groups is studied. ANDES performance is assessed by comparison with the results provided by ERANOS, using a mini-core model in 33 energy groups. Furthermore, a benchmark from the NEA for a small 3D FBR in hexagonal-Z geometry and 4 energy groups is also employed to verify the behavior of the code with few energy groups.

Hydration of C3S, C2S and their Blends. Micro- and Nanoscale Characterization

This study forms part of wider research conducted under a EU 7 th Framework Programme (COmputationally Driven design of Innovative CEment-based materials or CODICE). The ultimate aim is the multi-scale modelling of the variations in mechanical performance in degraded and non-degraded cementitious matrices. The model is being experimentally validated by hydrating the main tri-calcium silicate (T1-C3S) and bi-calcium silicate (β-C2S), phases present in Portland cement and their blends. The present paper discusses micro- and nanoscale studies of the cementitious skeletons forming during the hydration of C3S, C2S and 70 % / 30 % blends of both C3S/C2S and C2S/C3S with a water/cement ratio of 0.4. The hydrated pastes were characterized at different curing ages with 29 Si NMR, SEM/TEM/EDS, BET, and nanoindentation. The findings served as a basis for the micro- and nanoscale characterization of the hydration products formed, especially C-S-H gels. Differences were identified in composition, structure and mechanical behaviour (nanoindentation), depending on whether the gels formed in C3S or C2S pastes. The C3S gels had more compact morphologies, smaller BET-N2 specific surface area and lesser porosity than the gels from C2S-rich pastes. The results of nanoindentation tests appear to indicate that the various C-S-H phases formed in hydrated C3S and C2S have the same mechanical properties as those formed in Portland cement paste. Compared to the C3S sample, the hydrated C2S specimen was dominated by the loose-packed (LP) and the low-density (LD) C-S-H phases, and had a much lower content of the high density (HD) C-S-H phase