Analysis for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized network

This paper provides fundamental understanding for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks. Analytical modeling is performed to generate cumulative plots based on the availability of data: a) Case-D, for detector data only; b) Case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) Case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The empirical study and sensitivity analysis based on simulation experiments have observed the consistency in performance for Case-DS and Case-DSS, whereas, for Case-D the performance is inconsistent. Case-D is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

Representational change and strategy use in children's number line estimation during the first years of primary school

Background: The objective of this study was to scrutinize number line estimation behaviors displayed by children in mathematics classrooms during the first three years of schooling. We extend existing research by not only mapping potential logarithmic-linear shifts but also provide a new perspective by studying in detail the estimation strategies of individual target digits within a number range familiar to children. Methods: Typically developing children (n = 67) from Years 1 – 3 completed a number-to-position numerical estimation task (0-20 number line). Estimation behaviors were first analyzed via logarithmic and linear regression modeling. Subsequently, using an analysis of variance we compared the estimation accuracy of each digit, thus identifying target digits that were estimated with the assistance of arithmetic strategy. Results: Our results further confirm a developmental logarithmic-linear shift when utilizing regression modeling; however, uniquely we have identified that children employ variable strategies when completing numerical estimation, with levels of strategy advancing with development. Conclusion: In terms of the existing cognitive research, this strategy factor highlights the limitations of any regression modeling approach, or alternatively, it could underpin the developmental time course of the logarithmic-linear shift. Future studies need to systematically investigate this relationship and also consider the implications for educational practice.

Graph rigidity for near-coplanar structure from motion

Recent algorithms for monocular motion capture (MoCap) estimate weak-perspective camera matrices between images using a small subset of approximately-rigid points on the human body (i.e. the torso and hip). A problem with this approach, however, is that these points are often close to coplanar, causing canonical linear factorisation algorithms for rigid structure from motion (SFM) to become extremely sensitive to noise. In this paper, we propose an alternative solution to weak-perspective SFM based on a convex relaxation of graph rigidity. We demonstrate the success of our algorithm on both synthetic and real world data, allowing for much improved solutions to marker less MoCap problems on human bodies. Finally, we propose an approach to solve the two-fold ambiguity over bone direction using a k-nearest neighbour kernel density estimator.

Estimation on disease burden related to hepatitis B virus infection in Shandong province of China [山东省乙型肝炎病毒感染所致相关疾病的疾病负担研究]

Objective: To comprehensively measure the burden of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer in Shandong province, using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the disease burden attribute to hepatitis B virus (HBV)infection. Methods: Based on the mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer derived from the third National Sampling Retrospective Survey for Causes of Death during 2004 and 2005, the incidence data of hepatitis B and the prevalence and the disability weights of liver cancer gained from the Shandong Cancer Prevalence Sampling Survey in 2007, we calculated the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and DALYs of three diseases following the procedures developed for the global burden of disease (GBD) study to ensure the comparability. Results: The total burden for hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 211 616 (39 377 YLLs and 172 239 YLDs), 16 783 (13 497 YLLs and 3286 YLDs) and 247 795 (240 236 YLLs and 7559 YLDs) DALYs in 2005 respectively, and men were 2.19, 2.36 and 3.16 times as that for women, respectively in Shandong province. The burden for hepatitis B was mainly because of disability (81.39%). However, most burden on liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were due to premature death (80.42% and 96.95%). The burden of each patient related to hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 4.8, 13.73 and 11.11 respectively. Conclusion: Hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer caused considerable burden to the people living in Shandong province, indicating that the control of hepatitis B virus infection would bring huge potential benefits.

Estimation on the mortality and disease burden attributed to selected risk factors in Shandong province [山东省主要危险因素的归因死亡和疾病负担分析]

Objective: To determine the major health related risk factors and provide evidence for policy-making,using health burden analysis on selected factors among general population from Shandong province. Methods: Based on data derived from the Third Death of Cause Sampling Survey in Shandong. Years of life lcrat(YLLs),yearS Iived with disability(YLDs)and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) were calculated according to the GBD ethodology.Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were than estimated together with the PAF data from GBD 2001 study.The indirect method was employed to estimate the YLDs. Results: 51.09%of the total dearlls and 31.83%of the total DALYs from the Shandong population were resulted from the 19 selected risk factors.High blood pre.ure,smoking,low fruit and vegetable intake,aleohol consumption,indoor smoke from solid fuels,high cholesterol,urban air pollution, physical inactivity,overweight and obesity and unsafe injections in health care settings were identified as the top 10 risk faetors for mortality which together caused 50.21%of the total deaths.Alcohol use,smoking,high blood pressure,Low fruit and vegetable intake, indoor smoke from solid fuels, overweight and obesity,high cholesterol, physical inactivity,urban air pollution and iron-deficiency anemia were proved as the top 10 risk factors related to disease burden and were responsible for 29.04%of the total DALYs. Conclusion: Alcohol use.smoking and high blood pressure were determined as the major risk factors which influencing the health of residents in Shandong. The mortality and burden of disease could be reduced significantly if these major factors were effectively under control.

Estimation of energy saving of commercial building by living wall and green facade in sub-tropical climate of Australia

This paper investigates energy saving potential of commercial building by living wall and green façade system using Envelope Thermal Transfer Value (ETTV) equation in Sub-tropical climate of Australia. Energy saving of four commercial buildings was quantified by applying living wall and green façade system to the west facing wall. A field experimental facility, from which temperature data of living wall system was collected, was used to quantify wall temperatures and heat gain under controlled conditions. The experimental parameters were accumulated with extensive data of existing commercial building to quantify energy saving. Based on temperature data of living wall system comprised of Australian native plants, equivalent temperature of living wall system has been computed. Then, shading coefficient of plants in green façade system has been included in mathematical equation and in graphical analysis. To minimize the air-conditioned load of commercial building, therefore to minimize the heat gain of commercial building, an analysis of building heat gain reduction by living wall and green façade system has been performed. Overall, cooling energy performance of commercial building before and after living wall and green façade system application has been examined. The quantified energy saving showed that only living wall system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 8-13 % of cooling energy consumption where as only green façade system on opaque part of west facing wall can save 9.5-18% cooling energy consumption of commercial building. Again, green façade system on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 28-35 % of cooling energy consumption where as combination of both living wall on opaque part of west facing wall and green façade on fenestration system on west facing wall can save 35-40% cooling energy consumption of commercial building in sub-tropical climate of Australia.

Next generation low-cost motion capture systems can provide comparable spatial accuracy to high-end systems

The objective quantification of three-dimensional kinematics during different functional and occupational tasks is now more in demand than ever. The introduction of new generation of low-cost passive motion capture systems from a number of manufacturers has made this technology accessible for teaching, clinical practice and in small/medium industry. Despite the attractive nature of these systems, their accuracy remains unproved in independent tests. We assessed static linear accuracy, dynamic linear accuracy and compared gait kinematics from a Vicon MX20 system to a Natural Point OptiTrack system. In all experiments data were sampled simultaneously. We identified both systems perform excellently in linear accuracy tests with absolute errors not exceeding 1%. In gait data there was again strong agreement between the two systems in sagittal and coronal plane kinematics. Transverse plane kinematics differed by up to 3 at the knee and hip, which we attributed to the impact of soft tissue artifact accelerations on the data. We suggest that low-cost systems are comparably accurate to their high-end competitors and offer a platform with accuracy acceptable in research for laboratories with a limited budget.

A radiological method to determine the accuracy of motion capture marker placement on palpable anatomical landmarks through a shoe

The accuracy of marker placement on palpable surface anatomical landmarks is an important consideration in biomechanics. Although marker placement reliability has been studied in some depth, it remains unclear whether or not the markers are accurately positioned over the intended landmark in order to define the static position and orientation of the segment. A novel method using commonly available X-ray imaging was developed to identify the accuracy of markers placed on the shoe surface by palpating landmarks through the shoe. An anterior–posterior and lateral–medial X-ray was taken on 24 participants with a newly developed marker set applied to both the skin and shoe. The vector magnitude of both skin- and shoe-mounted markers from the anatomical landmark was calculated, as well as the mean marker offset between skin- and shoe-mounted markers. The accuracy of placing markers on the shoe relative to the skin-mounted markers, accounting for shoe thickness, was less than 5mm for all markers studied. Further, when using the developed guidelines provided in this study, the method was deemed reliable (Intra-rater ICCs¼0.50–0.92). In conclusion, the method proposed here can reliably assess marker placement accuracy on the shoe surface relative to chosen anatomical landmarks beneath the skin.

A comparison of two commercially available motion capture systems for gait analysis : high end vs low-cost

In 1999 Richards compared the accuracy of commercially available motion capture systems commonly used in biomechanics. Richards identified that in static tests the optical motion capture systems generally produced RMS errors of less than 1.0 mm. During dynamic tests, the RMS error increased to up to 4.2 mm in some systems. In the last 12 years motion capture systems have continued to evolve and now include high-resolution CCD or CMOS image sensors, wireless communication, and high full frame sampling frequencies. In addition to hardware advances, there have also been a number of advances in software, which includes improved calibration and tracking algorithms, real time data streaming, and the introduction of the c3d standard. These advances have allowed the system manufactures to maintain a high retail price in the name of advancement. In areas such as gait analysis and ergonomics many of the advanced features such as high resolution image sensors and high sampling frequencies are not required due to the nature of the task often investigated. Recently Natural Point introduced low cost cameras, which on face value appear to be suitable as at very least a high quality teaching tool in biomechanics and possibly even a research tool when coupled with the correct calibration and tracking software. The aim of the study was therefore to compare both the linear accuracy and quality of angular kinematics from a typical high end motion capture system and a low cost system during a simple task.

Integrated approach for HP-LNG pump diagnosis and prognostics based on health state probability estimation

This paper presents an innovative prognostics model based on health state probability estimation embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. To employ an appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed prognostic model, the comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault levels of three faults in HP-LNG pump. Two sets of impeller-rubbing data were employed for the prediction of pump remnant life based on estimation of discrete health state probability using an outstanding capability of SVM and a feature selection technique. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.