Concordance Probability and Discriminatory Power in Proportional Hazards Regression

The concordance probability is used to evaluate the discriminatory power and the predictive accuracy of nonlinear statistical models. We derive an analytic expression for the concordance probability in the Cox proportional hazards model. The proposed estimator is a function of the regression parameters and the covariate distribution only and does not use the observed event and censoring times. For this reason it is asymptotically unbiased, unlike Harrell's c-index based on informative pairs. The asymptotic distribution of the concordance probability estimate is derived using U-statistic theory and the methodology is applied to a predictive model in lung cancer.

Prediction of sepsis in the burn intensive care unit patient

Sepsis is a significant cause for multiple organ failure and death in the burn patient, yet identification in this population is confounded by chronic hypermetabolism and impaired immune function. The purpose of this study was twofold: 1) determine the ability of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria to predict sepsis in the burn patient; and 2) develop a model representing the best combination of clinical predictors associated with sepsis in the same population. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit (ICU) was conducted for the period January 2005 to September 2010. Blood culture results were paired with clinical condition: "positive-sick"; "negative-sick", and "screening-not sick". Data were collected for the 72 hours prior to each blood culture. The most significant predictors were evaluated using logistic regression, Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) and ROC area under the curve (AUC) analyses to assess model predictive ability. Bootstrapping methods were employed to evaluate potential model over-fitting. Fifty-nine subjects were included, representing 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not found to be associated with culture type, with an average of 98% of subjects meeting criteria in the 3 days prior. ABA sepsis criteria were significantly different among culture type only on the day prior (p = 0.004). The variables identified for the model included: heart rate>130 beats/min, mean blood pressure<60 mmHg, base deficit<-6 mEq/L, temperature>36°C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose>150 mg/d1. The model was significant in predicting "positive culture-sick" and sepsis state, with AUC of 0.775 (p < 0.001) and 0.714 (p < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (p = 0.028) and 0.597 (p = .035), respectively. SIRS criteria are not appropriate for identifying sepsis in the burn population. The ABA criteria perform better, but only for the day prior to positive blood culture results. The time period useful to diagnose sepsis using clinical criteria may be limited to 24 hours. A combination of predictors is superior to individual variable trends, yet algorithms or computer support will be necessary for the clinician to find such models useful. ^

Engineering an Ontology for Autonomous Systems - The OASys Ontology

This paper describes the development of an ontology for autonomous systems, as the initial stage of a research programe on autonomous systems’ engineering within a model-based control approach. The ontology aims at providing a unified conceptual framework for the autonomous systems’ stakeholders, from developers to software engineers. The modular ontology contains both generic and domain-specific concepts for autonomous systems description and engineering. The ontology serves as the basis in a methodology to obtain the autonomous system’s conceptual models. The objective is to obtain and to use these models as main input for the autonomous system’s model-based control system.

A contribution on modeling methodologies for multibody systems.

Multibody System Dynamics has been responsible for revolutionizing Mechanical Engineering Design by using mathematical models to simulate and optimize the dynamic behavior of a wide range of mechanical systems. These mathematical models not only can provide valuable informations about a system that could otherwise be obtained only by experiments with prototypes, but also have been responsible for the development of many model-based control systems. This work represents a contribution for dynamic modeling of multibody mechanical systems by developing a novel recursive modular methodology that unifies the main contributions of several Classical Mechanics formalisms. The reason for proposing such a methodology is to motivate the implementation of computational routines for modeling complex multibody mechanical systems without being dependent on closed source software and, consequently, to contribute for the teaching of Multibody System Dynamics in undergraduate and graduate levels. All the theoretical developments are based on and motivated by a critical literature review, leading to a general matrix form of the dynamic equations of motion of a multibody mechanical system (that can be expressed in terms of any set of variables adopted for the description of motions performed by the system, even if such a set includes redundant variables) and to a general recursive methodology for obtaining mathematical models of complex systems given a set of equations describing the dynamics of each of its uncoupled subsystems and another set describing the constraints among these subsystems in the assembled system. This work also includes some discussions on the description of motion (using any possible set of motion variables and admitting any kind of constraint that can be expressed by an invariant), and on the conditions for solving forward and inverse dynamics problems given a mathematical model of a multibody system. Finally, some examples of computational packages based on the novel methodology, along with some case studies, are presented, highlighting the contributions that can be achieved by using the proposed methodology.

Aplicações baseadas em geolocalizações para gestão de instalações desportivas: exemplo de utilização da API da GOOGLE Maps no concelho de Guimarães

O contexto tecnológico em que vivemos é uma realidade. E a tendência é para ser assim também no futuro. Cada vez mais. É o caso das representações de locais e entidades em mapas digitais na web. Na visão de Crocker (2014), esta tendência é ainda mais acentuada, no âmbito das aplicações móveis, como mostram as mais diversas location-based applications. No setor do desporto e da respetiva gestão nem sempre foi fácil desenvolver aplicações, recorrendo a este tipo de representações espaciais. A tecnologia não era fácil e o know-how não era adequadamente qualificado. Mas, as empresas fornecedoras de tecnologia geoespacial simplificaram o desenvolvimento de aplicações web nesta área, através da utilização de application programming interfaces (API). Como refere Svennerberg (2010), estas API’s servem de interface entre um serviço proporcionado por uma empresa, caso da Google Maps (2013) e uma aplicação web ou móvel que utiliza esses serviços. Foi com este objetivo que desenvolvemos uma aplicação web, utilizando as metodologias próprias neste domínio, como a framework de Zachman (2009), tal como foi originalmente adaptada por Whitten e Bentley (2005), onde um dos módulos é precisamente a representação de espaços desportivos, recorrendo à utilização dos serviços da Google Maps. Para além disso, toda a aplicação é suportada numa abordagem Model-View-Control (MVC). Para conseguir representar as instalações desportivas num mapa, criámos uma base de dados MySQL, com dados de longitude e latitude, de cada instalação desportiva. Através de JavaScript criou-se o mapa propriamente dito, indicando o tipo (mapa de estradas, satélite ou street view) e as respetivas opções (nível de zoom, alinhamento, controlo de interface e posicionamente, entre muitas outras opções). O passo seguinte consistiu em passar os dados para o frontend da aplicação web. Para isso, recorreu-se à integração do PHP com as livrarias externas de código JavaSrcipt, criadas especificamente para o efeito (caso da MarkerManager). A implementação destas funcionalidades permite georeferenciar todos os tipos e géneros de espaços desportivos de um concelho, região ou País. Obteve-se ainda know-how, background e massa crítica, para o desenvolvimento de novas funcionalidades. A sua utilização em dispositivos móveis é outra das possibilidades atualmente já em desenvolvimento.

A Study of Shallow Groundwater Migration through Anthropogenic Fill along a Seawall

This report provides the findings and opinions of a historical document review, hydraulic balance calculation, and proposed additional study for a property that was historically used as a bulk petroleum storage and distribution facility. The property lies along the base, west, of a heavily vegetated bluff with a tidally influenced body of water west-adjacent to the property. The western portion of the property is bounded by a seawall spanning approximately 3,200 linear feet trending north-south. The seawall’s construction details are not known, save for a 225-foot section of driven sheet pile wall located within the northern portion of the property’s seawall. Due to the presence of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil and groundwater at the property, a cleanup action for the property will likely be overseen by the state regulatory agency. The property is currently undergoing remedial investigation in an effort to identify the lateral and vertical extent in which contaminants at the property have come to be located, also known as the “site” as defined by the Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA). The majority of the property bounded within the seawall area has been characterized; however, the shoreline sediments located immediately west-adjacent of the seawall have not been properly delineated. Identifying the bounds of the site to the west within sediment is pivotal for the purposes of the remedial investigation. Since the west-adjacent shoreline is so extensive, conducting a complete sediment sampling event along the entire shoreline would be cost-prohibitive due to analytical costs and logistical issues at the property. Because of the extensive nature of the shoreline, it would greatly benefit the client and project to focus sampling efforts at areas of greater risk for contaminants along the shoreline by identifying potential preferential pathways for contaminants to migrate off of the property and into adjacent shoreline sediments. The review of historical studies of the property yielded some useful information; however much of the findings included within the historical studies were lacking original raw data, therefore limiting the information obtained. The calculated hydraulic balance for the property yielded a relatively large surplus of recharge to groundwater after precipitation events, reinforcing the concept that contaminant have potentially historically, and currently, been migrating into the adjacent shoreline through preferential pathways along the seawall. Due to the limitation within the historical studies for the property as well as the groundwater recharge identified in the hydraulic balance, an additional study was proposed in an effort to provide additional aquifer characteristics along the seawall, and the ability to observe flow propagation at and proximate to the seawall in two-dimensions through time without the need to piece separate studies together. This proposed study includes a single simultaneous tidal study which comprises select monitoring points along the seawall. This report has identified the need for additional data that can be collected through available avenues for the property based upon the client’s desires and project needs. Ultimately, the proposed additional study is suggested based upon its relatively low capital investment, and ability meet the requirements relevant to the specific project needs and scope. Assuming preferential pathways are identified through the additional study proposed within this report, a representative and cost-effective sediment sampling plan can then be put in place in an effort to define the site.

Ethanol prevents NMDA receptor reduction by maternal separation in neonatal rat hippocampus

We measured the effects of ethanol on glutamate receptor levels in the hippocampus of neonatal Wistar rats using a vapor chamber model. Two control groups were used; a normal suckle group and a maternal separation group. Levels of NMDA receptors were not significantly altered in ethanol-treated animals compared to the normal suckle control group, as shown by [H-3]MK-801 binding and Western blot analysis. However, MK-801 binding and NR1 subunit immunoreactivity were greatly reduced in the hippocampus of separation control animals. Neither ethanol treatment nor maternal separation altered levels of GluR1 or GluR2(4). These results have serious implications for the importance of maternal contact for normal brain development.

Otimização do sistema de supervisão e controle de uma planta de tratamento de resíduos utilizando plasma

A major and growing problems faced by modern society is the high production of waste and related effects they produce, such as environmental degradation and pollution of various ecosystems, with direct effects on quality of life. The thermal treatment technologies have been widely used in the treatment of these wastes and thermal plasma is gaining importance in processing blanketing. This work is focused on developing an optimized system of supervision and control applied to a processing plant and petrochemical waste effluents using thermal plasma. The system is basically composed of a inductive plasma torch reactors washing system / exhaust gases and RF power used to generate plasma. The process of supervision and control of the plant is of paramount importance in the development of the ultimate goal. For this reason, various subsidies were created in the search for greater efficiency in the process, generating events, graphics / distribution and storage of data for each subsystem of the plant, process execution, control and 3D visualization of each subsystem of the plant between others. A communication platform between the virtual 3D plant architecture and a real control structure (hardware) was created. The goal is to use the concepts of mixed reality and develop strategies for different types of controls that allow manipulating 3D plant without restrictions and schedules, optimize the actual process. Studies have shown that one of the best ways to implement the control of generation inductively coupled plasma techniques is to use intelligent control, both for their efficiency in the results is low for its implementation, without requiring a specific model. The control strategy using Fuzzy Logic (Fuzzy-PI) was developed and implemented, and the results showed satisfactory condition on response time and viability

Intern kontroll: En fallstudie på Trafikverket

Internal control is something that’s grown more important for enterprises to keep in mind. The community is increasingly affected by the IT-development which demands a bigger degree of security. Enterprises needs to make sure that their systems are up to date and secure enough to keep it safe from unauthorized to take part of sensitive information. Internal control can exist in a major part of the work. If an enterprise have a goal for no harm or serious injury at work, internal control is necessary to reach that goal. The purpose for this essay is to examine how five different departments of Trafikverket practices internal control. How internal control is described. How the guidance from the managements is described and how it reaches the rest of the enterprise. This will lead to a proposal of improvement of the internal control at Trafikverket. We focus our frame of reference on the COSO-model and its five components. The components included in the COSO-model are control environment, risk valuation, control activities, information and communication and monitoring. The essay is a case-study of Trafikverket. We have chosen a qualitative method and interviewed five respondents from the different departments on Trafikverket. The respondents we interviewed works with internal control in their everyday work or have a god insight in the subject. We used a semi structured interview guide with questions based on the COSO framework. The results from our study shows that it exist big variations between how the departments work with internal control. It emerged that there are new guidelines for how the work should be done. This makes it necessary with education to implement the new ways to work. How the departments use the COSO-model varies. Some of them have incorporated the model in their new ways to work others have never heard of it. The conclusion of our study shows that the COSO-model and it´s components contribute to a functioning internal control. Implementing the components is important and the most important feature to good internal control is the corporate management. Education within the enterprise is the most effective way to inform the staff about the model and to implement it.

Projeto, implementação e análise de um conversor CC-CC de alto ganho e alto rendimento para aplicações fotovoltaicas

In recent years the photovoltaic generation has had greater insertion in the energy mix of the most developed countries, growing at annual rates of over 30%. The pressure for the reduction of pollutant emissions, diversification of the energy mix and the drop in prices are the main factors driving this growth. Grid tied systems plays an important role in alleviating the energy crisis and diversification of energy sources. Among the grid tied systems, building integrated photovoltaic systems suffers from partial shading of the photovoltaic modules and consequently the energy yield is reduced. In such cases, classical forms of modules connection do not produce good results and new techniques have been developed to increase the amount of energy produced by a set of modules. In the parallel connection technique of photovoltaic modules, a high voltage gain DC-DC converter is required, which is relatively complex to build with high efficiency. The current-fed isolated converters explored in this work have some desirable characteristics for this type of application, such as: low input current ripple and input voltage ripple, high voltage gain, galvanic isolation, feature high power capacity and it achieve soft switching in a wide operating range. This study presents contributions to the study of a high gain and high efficiency DC-DC converter for use in a parallel system of photovoltaic generation, being possible the use in a microinverter or with central inverter. The main contributions of this work are: analysis of the active clamping circuit operation proposing that the clamp capacitor connection must be done on the negative node of the power supply to reduce the input current ripple and thus reduce the filter requirements; use of a voltage doubler in the output rectifier to reduce the number of components and to extend the gain of the converter; detailed study of the converter components in order to raise the efficiency; obtaining the AC equivalent model and control system design. As a result, a DC-DC converter with high gain, high efficiency and without electrolytic capacitors in the power stage was developed. In the final part of this work the DC-DC converter operation connected to an inverter is presented. Besides, the DC bus controller is designed and are implemented two maximum power point tracking algorithms. Experimental results of full system operation connected to an emulator and subsequently to a real photovoltaic module are also given.

Student, school, and country differences in sustained test-taking effort in the 2009 PISA reading assessment

In this article, the change in examinee effort during an assessment, which we will refer to as persistence, is modeled as an effect of item position. A multilevel extension is proposed to analyze hierarchically structured data and decompose the individual differences in persistence. Data from the 2009 Program of International Student Achievement (PISA) reading assessment from N = 467,819 students from 65 countries are analyzed with the proposed model, and the results are compared across countries. A decrease in examinee effort during the PISA reading assessment was found consistently across countries, with individual differences within and between schools. Both the decrease and the individual differences are more pronounced in lower performing countries. Within schools, persistence is slightly negatively correlated with reading ability; but at the school level, this correlation is positive in most countries. The results of our analyses indicate that it is important to model and control examinee effort in low-stakes assessments. (DIPF/Orig.)

Plataforma interactiva para edifícios inteligentes com controlo preditivo

Esta dissertação desenvolve uma plataforma de controlo interactiva para edifícios inteligentes através de um sistema SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition). Este sistema SCADA integra diferentes tipos de informações provenientes das várias tecnologias presentes em edifícios modernos (controlo da ventilação, temperatura, iluminação, etc.). A estratégia de controlo desenvolvida implementa um controlador em cascada hierárquica onde os "loops" interiores são executados pelos PLC's locais (Programmable Logic Controller), e o "loop" exterior é gerido pelo sistema SCADA centralizado, que interage com a rede local de PLC's. Nesta dissertação é implementado um controlador preditivo na plataforma SCADA centralizada. São apresentados testes efectuados para o controlo da temperatura e luminosidade de salas com uma grande área. O controlador preditivo desenvolvido tenta optimizar a satisfação dos utilizadores, com base nas preferências introduzidas em várias interfaces distribuídas, sujeito às restrições de minimização do desperdício de energia. De forma a executar o controlador preditivo na plataforma SCADA foi desenvolvido um canal de comunicação para permitir a comunicação entre a aplicação SCADA e a aplicação MATLAB, onde o controlador preditivo é executado. ABSTRACT: This dissertation develops an operational control platform for intelligent buildings using a SCADA system (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition). This SCADA system integrates different types of information coming from the several technologies present in modem buildings (control of ventilation, temperature, illumination, etc.). The developed control strategy implements a hierarchical cascade controller where inner loops are performed by local PLCs (Programmable Logic Controller), and the outer loop is managed by the centralized SCADA system, which interacts with the entire local PLC network. ln this dissertation a Predictive Controller is implemented at the centralized SCADA platform. Tests applied to the control of temperature and luminosity in huge­area rooms are presented. The developed Predictive Controller tries to optimize the satisfaction of user explicit preferences coming from several distributed user-interfaces, subjected to the constraints of energy waste minimization. ln order to run the Predictive Controller at the SCADA platform a communication channel was developed to allow communication between the SCADA application and the MATLAB application where the Predictive Controller runs.

Location analysis of city sections: socio-demographic segmentation and restaurant potentiality estimation : a case study of Lisbon

One of the objectives of this study is to perform classification of socio-demographic components for the level of city section in City of Lisbon. In order to accomplish suitable platform for the restaurant potentiality map, the socio-demographic components were selected to produce a map of spatial clusters in accordance to restaurant suitability. Consequently, the second objective is to obtain potentiality map in terms of underestimation and overestimation in number of restaurants. To the best of our knowledge there has not been found identical methodology for the estimation of restaurant potentiality. The results were achieved with combination of SOM (Self-Organized Map) which provides a segmentation map and GAM (Generalized Additive Model) with spatial component for restaurant potentiality. Final results indicate that the highest influence in restaurant potentiality is given to tourist sites, spatial autocorrelation in terms of neighboring restaurants (spatial component), and tax value, where lower importance is given to household with 1 or 2 members and employed population, respectively. In addition, an important conclusion is that the most attractive market sites have shown no change or moderate underestimation in terms of restaurants potentiality.

Controle preditivo neural aplicado à processos petroquímicos

A pesquisa tem como objetivo desenvolver uma estrutura de controle preditivo neural, com o intuito de controlar um processo de pH, caracterizado por ser um sistema SISO (Single Input - Single Output). O controle de pH é um processo de grande importância na indústria petroquímica, onde se deseja manter constante o nível de acidez de um produto ou neutralizar o afluente de uma planta de tratamento de fluidos. O processo de controle de pH exige robustez do sistema de controle, pois este processo pode ter ganho estático e dinâmica nãolineares. O controlador preditivo neural envolve duas outras teorias para o seu desenvolvimento, a primeira referente ao controle preditivo e a outra a redes neurais artificiais (RNA s). Este controlador pode ser dividido em dois blocos, um responsável pela identificação e outro pelo o cálculo do sinal de controle. Para realizar a identificação neural é utilizada uma RNA com arquitetura feedforward multicamadas com aprendizagem baseada na metodologia da Propagação Retroativa do Erro (Error Back Propagation). A partir de dados de entrada e saída da planta é iniciado o treinamento offline da rede. Dessa forma, os pesos sinápticos são ajustados e a rede está apta para representar o sistema com a máxima precisão possível. O modelo neural gerado é usado para predizer as saídas futuras do sistema, com isso o otimizador calcula uma série de ações de controle, através da minimização de uma função objetivo quadrática, fazendo com que a saída do processo siga um sinal de referência desejado. Foram desenvolvidos dois aplicativos, ambos na plataforma Builder C++, o primeiro realiza a identificação, via redes neurais e o segundo é responsável pelo controle do processo. As ferramentas aqui implementadas e aplicadas são genéricas, ambas permitem a aplicação da estrutura de controle a qualquer novo processo