A statistical evaluation of the fixed dose procedure

The fixed-dose procedure (FDP) was introduced as OECD Test Guideline 420 in 1992, as an alternative to the conventional median lethal dose (LD50) test for the assessment of acute oral toxicity (OECD Test Guideline 401). The FDP uses fewer animals and causes less suffering than the conventional test, while providing information on the acute toxicity to allow substances to be ranked according to the EU hazard classification system. Recently the FDP has been revised, with the aim of providing further reductions and refinements, and classification according to the criteria of the Globally Harmonized Hazard Classification and Labelling scheme (GHS). This paper describes the revised FDP and analyses its properties, as determined by a statistical modelling approach. The analysis shows that the revised FDP classifies substances for acute oral toxicity generally in the same, or a more stringent, hazard class as that based on the LD50 value, according to either the GHS or the EU classification scheme. The likelihood of achieving the same classification is greatest for substances with a steep dose-response curve and median toxic dose (TD50) close to the LD50. The revised FDP usually requires five or six animals with two or fewer dying as a result of treatment in most cases.

Monitoring and evaluation in Malawi

When Ian Wilson and Carlos Barahona of the Statistical Services Centre at the University of Reading were asked to review an evaluation of the effectiveness of an aid package in Malawi, they expected a simple enough task. But few things in the developing world are simple. Where aid for the poorest is concerned, is evidence collected and analysed with enough rigour to enable well-informed decisions to be made?

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

Synthesis and Biological Evaluation of New Ozonides with Improved Plant Growth Regulatory Activity

The iron oxyallyl carbocation generated from 2,7-dibromocycloheptanone was induced to undergo [4 + 3] cycloaddition reactions with various furans, affording a series of 12-oxatricyclo-[4.4.1.1(2,5)]-dodec-3-en-11-one adducts. Similar methodology was used to prepare two additional cycloadducts using menthofuran and two homologous aliphatic dibromoketones. Dipolar cycloaddition of ozone to the adducts afforded the corresponding secondary ozonides (i.e., 1,2,4-trioxolanes) in variable yields. Ozonides were investigated by quantum mechanics at the B3LYP/6-31+G* level to study structural features including close contacts which may be responsible for enhancing ozonide stability. The effect of these ozonides and their corresponding precursor cycloadducts upon radicle growth of both Sorghum bicolor and Cucumis sativus was evaluated at 5.0 x 10(-4) mol L-1. The most active cycloadducts and ozonides were also evaluated against the weed species Ipomoea grandifolia and Brachiaria decumbens, and the results are discussed. Compared to ozonides previously synthesized in our laboratory, the new ozonides described herein present improved plant growth regulatory activity.

Evaluation of the binding ability of a novel dioxatetraazamacrocyclic receptor that contains two phenanthroline units: selective uptake of carboxylate anions

The novel dioxatetraaza macrocycle [26]phen(2)N(4)O(2), which incorporates two phenanthroline units, has been synthesized, and its acid-base behavior has been evaluated by potentiometric and H-1 NMR methods. Six protonation constants were determined, and the protonation sequence was established by NMR. The location of the fifth proton on the phen nitrogen was confirmed by X-ray determinations of the crystal structures of the receptor as bromide and chloride salts. The two compounds have the general molecular formula {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}X(n-1)(.)mH(2)O, where X = Cl, n = 3, and m = 6 or X = Br, n = 4, and m = 5.5. In the solid state, the (H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))(5+) cation adopts a "horseshoe" topology with sufficient room to encapsulate three or four halogen anions through the several N-(HX)-X-... hydrogen-bonding interactions. Two supermolecules {(H-5[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2))X-n(H2O)(5-n)}((5-n)+) form an interpenetrating dimeric species, which was also found by ESI mass spectrum. Binding studies of the protonated macrocycle with aliphatic (ox(2-), mal(2-), suc(2-), cit(3-), cta(3-)) and aromatic (bzc(-), naphc(-), anthc(-), pyrc(-), ph(2-), iph(2-), tph(2-), btc(3-)) anions were determined in water by potentiometric methods. These studies were complemented by H-1 NMR titrations in D2O of the receptor with selected anions. The H-i[26]phen(2)N(4)O(2)(i+) receptor can selectively uptake highly charged or extended aromatic carboxylate anions, such as btc(3-) and pyrc(-), in the pH ranges of 4.0-8.5 and < 4.0, respectively, from aqueous solution that contain the remaining anions as pollutants or contaminants. To obtain further insight into these structural and experimental findings, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were carried out in water solution.

Mapping fibre orientation in complex-shaped biological systems with micrometre resolution by scanning X-ray microdiffraction

A fully automated procedure to extract and to image local fibre orientation in biological tissues from scanning X-ray diffraction is presented. The preferred chitin fibre orientation in the flow sensing system of crickets is determined with high spatial resolution by applying synchrotron radiation based X-ray microbeam diffraction in conjunction with advanced sample sectioning using a UV micro-laser. The data analysis is based on an automated detection of azimuthal diffraction maxima after 2D convolution filtering (smoothing) of the 2D diffraction patterns. Under the assumption of crystallographic fibre symmetry around the morphological fibre axis, the evaluation method allows mapping the three-dimensional orientation of the fibre axes in space. The resulting two-dimensional maps of the local fibre orientations - together with the complex shape of the flow sensing system - may be useful for a better understanding of the mechanical optimization of such tissues.

Evaluation of milk urea nitrogen as a diagnostic of protein feeding

An evaluation of milk urea nitrogen (MUN) as a diagnostic of protein feeding in dairy cows was performed using mean treatment data (n = 306) from 50 production trials conducted in Finland (n = 48) and Sweden (n = 2). Data were used to assess the effects of diet composition and certain animal characteristics on MUN and to derive relationships between MUN and the efficiency of N utilization for milk production and urinary N excretion. Relationships were developed using regression analysis based on either models of fixed factors or using mixed models that account for between-experiment variations. Dietary crude protein (CP) content was the best single predictor of MUN and accounted for proportionately 0.778 of total variance [ MUN (mg/dL) = -14.2 + 0.17 x dietary CP content (g/kg dry matter)]. The proportion of variation explained by this relationship increased to 0.952 when a mixed model including the random effects of study was used, but both the intercept and slope remained unchanged. Use of rumen degradable CP concentration in excess of predicted requirements, or the ratio of dietary CP to metabolizable energy as single predictors, did not explain more of the variation in MUN (R-2 = 0.767 or 0.778, respectively) than dietary CP content. Inclusion of other dietary factors with dietary CP content in bivariate models resulted in only marginally better predictions of MUN (R-2 = 0.785 to 0.804). Closer relationships existed between MUN and dietary factors when nutrients (CP to metabolizable energy) were expressed as concentrations in the diet, rather than absolute intakes. Furthermore, both MUN and MUN secretion (g/d) provided more accurate predictions of urinary N excretion (R-2 = 0.787 and 0.835, respectively) than measurements of the efficiency of N utilization for milk production (R-2 = 0.769). It is concluded that dietary CP content is the most important nutritional factor influencing MUN, and that measurements of MUN can be utilized as a diagnostic of protein feeding in the dairy cow and used to predict urinary N excretion.

Isolation of culturable yeasts from market wines and evaluation of the 5 center dot 8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis for identification purposes

Aims: To test the possibility that wines available in the marketplace may contain culturable yeasts and to evaluate the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis as adequate means for the identification of isolates. Methods and Results: As a case study, typical Greek wines were surveyed. Sequence analysis of the 5.8S-ITS rDNA was tested for its robustness in species or strain identification. Sixteen isolates could be assigned into the species Brettanomyces bruxellensis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Rhodotorula pinicola, whereas four isolates could not be safely identified. B. bruxellensis was the dominant species present in house wines, while non-Saccharomyces sp. were viable in aged wines of high alcohol content. Conclusions: Yeast population depends on postfermentation procedures or storage conditions. Although 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is generally a rapid method to identify wine yeast isolates at the species level, or even below that, it may not be sufficient for some genera. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first report to show that commercial wines may possess diverse and potentially harmful yeast populations. The knowledge of yeasts able to reside in this niche environment is essential towards integrated quality assurance programmes. For selected species, the 5.8S-ITS rDNA sequence analysis is a rapid and accurate means.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties and potential prebiotic activity of Agave fructans

Aims: This study was carried out to evaluate in vitro the fermentation properties and the potential prebiotic activity of Agave-fructans extracted from Agave tequilana (Predilife). Methods and Results: Five different commercial prebiotics were compared using 24-h pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures inoculated with human faecal slurries. Measurement of prebiotic efficacy was obtained by comparing bacterial changes, and the production of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) was also determined. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota were monitored over 24 h incubations by fluorescence in situ hybridization. SCFA were measured by HPLC. Fermentation of the Agave fructans (Predilife) resulted in a large increase in numbers of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. Conclusions: Under the in vitro conditions used, this study has shown the differential impact of Predilife on the microbial ecology of the human gut. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study reporting of a potential prebiotic mode of activity for Agave fructans investigated which significantly increased populations of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli compared to cellulose used as a control.

The synthesis and cytotoxic evaluation of a series of benzodioxole substituted titanocenes

Using 6-benzo[1,3]dioxolefulvene (1a), a series of benzodioxole substituted titanocenes was synthesized. The benzyl-substituted titanocene bis[(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-5-methylcyclopentadienyl] titanium (IV) dichloride (2a) was synthesized from the reaction of Super Hydride with 1a. An X-ray determined crystal structure was obtained for 2a. The ansa-titanocene (1,2-di(cyclopentadienyl)1,2-di-(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-ethanediyl) titanium(IV) dichloride (2b) was synthesized by reductive dimerisation of la with titanium dichloride. The diarylmethyl substituted titanocene bis(di(benzo[1,3]dioxole)-S-methylcyclopentadienyl) titanium(IV) dichloride (20 was synthesized by reacting la with the para-lithiated benzodioxole followed by transmetallation with titanium tetrachloride. When titanocenes 2a-c were tested against pig kidney (LLC-PK) cells inhibitory concentrations (IC50) of 2.8 X 10(-4), 1.6 x 10(-4) and 7.6 x 10(-5) m, respectively, were observed. These values represent improved cytotoxicity against LLC-PK, when compared with unsubstituted titanocene dichloride, but are not as impressive as values obtained for titanocenes previously synthesized using the above methods. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Interventions to promote healthy eating habits: evaluation and recommendations

Although in several EU Member States many public interventions have been running for the prevention and/or management of obesity and other nutrition-related health conditions, few have yet been formally evaluated. The multidisciplinary team of the EATWELL project will gather benchmark data on healthy eating interventions in EU Member States and review existing information on the effectiveness of interventions using a three-stage procedure (i) Assessment of the intervention's impact on consumer attitudes, consumer behaviour and diets; (ii) The impact of the change in diets on obesity and health and (iii) The value attached by society to these changes, measured in life years gained, cost savings and quality-adjusted life years. Where evaluations have been inadequate, EATWELL will gather secondary data and analyse them with a multidisciplinary approach incorporating models from the psychology and economics disciplines. Particular attention will be paid to lessons that can be learned from private sector that are transferable to the healthy eating campaigns in the public sector. Through consumer surveys and workshops with other stakeholders, EATWELL will assess the acceptability of the range of potential interventions. Armed with scientific quantitative evaluations of policy interventions and their acceptability to stakeholders, EATWELL expects to recommend more appropriate interventions for Member States and the EU, providing a one-stop guide to methods and measures in interventions evaluation, and outline data collection priorities for the future.

Prebiotic evaluation of cocoa-derived flavanols in healthy humans by using a randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover intervention study

BACKGROUND: The absorption of cocoa flavanols in the small intestine is limited, and the majority of the flavanols reach the large intestine where they may be metabolized by resident microbiota. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the prebiotic potential of cocoa flavanols in a randomized, double-blind, crossover, controlled intervention study. DESIGN: Twenty-two healthy human volunteers were randomly assigned to either a high-cocoa flavanol (HCF) group (494 mg cocoa flavanols/d) or a low-cocoa flavanol (LCF) group (23 mg cocoa flavanols/d) for 4 wk. This was followed by a 4-wk washout period before volunteers crossed to the alternant arm. Fecal samples were recovered before and after each intervention, and bacterial numbers were measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization. A number of other biochemical and physiologic markers were measured. RESULTS: Compared with the consumption of the LCF drink, the daily consumption of the HCF drink for 4 wk significantly increased the bifidobacterial (P < 0.01) and lactobacilli (P < 0.001) populations but significantly decreased clostridia counts (P < 0.001). These microbial changes were paralleled by significant reductions in plasma triacylglycerol (P < 0.05) and C-reactive protein (P < 0.05) concentrations. Furthermore, changes in C-reactive protein concentrations were linked to changes in lactobacilli counts (P < 0.05, R(2) = -0.33 for the model). These in vivo changes were closely paralleled by cocoa flavanol-induced bacterial changes in mixed-batch culture experiments. CONCLUSION: This study shows, for the first time to our knowledge, that consumption of cocoa flavanols can significantly affect the growth of select gut microflora in humans, which suggests the potential prebiotic benefits associated with the dietary inclusion of flavanol-rich foods. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01091922.

Estimated intake of dietary phytoestrogens in Australian women and evaluation of correlates of phytoestrogen intake

The role of dietary phytoestrogens in health has been of continued interest and debate, but available data on the distribution of intake in the Australian diet is scarce. Therefore, we aimed to estimate phytoestrogen consumption in Australian women, describe the pattern of intake and identify correlates of high phytoestrogen intake. Study participants were 2078 control women (18-79 y) from two population-based case-control studies on gyneacological cancers (2002-2007). Dietary information was obtained using a 135-item semiquantitative FFQ and intakes of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans and coumestans, including their individual components, were estimated using a database of phytoestrogen content in food developed in the UK. Median total intake (energy-adjusted) of phytoestrogens was 1.29 mg/d, of isoflavones 611 μg/d, of lignans 639 μg/d, of enterolignans 21μg/d and of coumestrol 8 μg/d. Both isoflavone and lignan intake were strongly skewed towards higher values and positively correlated with age. Women consumed on average 2 serves of soy foods/week. Compared to low phytoestrogen consumers (≤1.29 mg/d, median split), high phytoestrogen consumers (>1.29 mg/d) were slightly older, less likely to be smokers, had a higher educational and physical activity level, lower BMI, lower intake of dietary fat, and higher intake of fibre, selected micronutrient and soy food (all p<0.03). The daily intake of phytoestrogens in Australian women with predominantly Caucasian ethnicity is approximately 1 mg, similar to other Western populations, but considerably lower than among Asian women. However, those with a relatively high phytoestrogen diet seem to have healthier lifestyle and more favourable dietary profile compared to others.