3-5-Man chess data

This reports the work of Karrer and Wirth in identifying percentage results and, respectively, the Depth to Mate (DTM) and Depth to Conversion (DTC) data in all 2-5-man chess endgames.

Longevity, early emergence and body size in a pollinating fig wasp - implications for stability in a fig-pollinator mutualism

1. Fig trees (Ficus) are pollinated only by agaonid wasps, whose larvae also gall fig ovules. Each ovule develops into either a seed (when pollinated) or a wasp (when an egg is also laid inside) but not both. 2. Ovipositing wasps (foundresses) favour ovules near the centre of the enclosed inflorescence (syconium or 'fig'), leaving ovules near the outer wall to develop into seeds. This spatial stratification of wasps and seeds ensures reproduction in both partners, and thereby enables mutualism persistence. However, the mechanism(s) responsible remain(s) unknown. 3. Theory shows that foundresses will search for increasingly rare inner ovules and ignore outer ovules, as long as ovipositing in outer ovules is sufficiently slow and/or if inner ovules confer greater fitness to wasps. The fig-pollinator mutualism can therefore be stabilized by strong time constraints on foundresses and by offspring fitness gradients over variation in ovule position. 4. Female fig wasps cannot leave their galls without male assistance. We found that females in outer ovules were unlikely to be released. Inner ovules thus have added value to foundresses, because their female offspring are more likely to mate and disperse. 5. For those offspring that did emerge, gall position (inner/outer) and body size did not influence the order in which female pollinators exited syconia, nor did early emerging wasps enjoy increased life spans. 6. We also found that the life spans of female wasps nearly doubled when given access to moisture. We suggest that conflict resolution in the fig-pollinator mutualism may thus be influenced by tropical seasonality, because wasps may be less able to over-exploit ovules in dry periods due to time constraints.

Elephants and ivory

Counting elephants ought to be easy. It is not. Counting elephants lost to poaching is even harder. But, without knowledge of both, how can we know whether banning the sale of ivory is helping to save elephants?Bob Burn explains the problems.

Song development in birds: the role of early experience and its potential effect on rehabilitation success

Environmental conditions during the early life stages of birds can have significant effects on the quality of sexual signals in adulthood, especially song, and these ultimately have consequences for breeding success and fitness. This has wide-ranging implications for the rehabilitation protocols undertaken in wildlife hospitals which aim to return captive-reared animals to their natural habitat. Here we review the current literature on bird song development and learning in order to determine the potential impact that the rearing of juvenile songbirds in captivity can have on rehabilitation success. We quantify the effects of reduced learning on song structure and relate this to the possible effects on an individual's ability to defend a territory or attract a mate. We show the importance of providing a conspecific auditory model for birds to learn from in the early stages post-fledging, either via live- or tape-tutoring and provide suggestions for tutoring regimes. We also highlight the historical focus on learning in a few model species that has left an information gap in our knowledge for most species reared at wildlife hospitals.

Structural variations in Ni(II) complexes of salen type di-Schiff base ligands

Three di-Schiff-base ligands, N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,3-propanediamine (H(2)Salpn), N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,3-pentanedianiine (H(2)Salpen) and N,N'-bis(salicylidine)-ethylenediamine (H(2)Salen) react with Ni(SCN)(2). 4H(2)O in 2:3 molar ratios to form the complexes; mononuclear [Ni(HSalpn)(NCS)(H2O)]center dot H2O (1a), trinuclear [{Ni(Salpen)}(2)Ni(NCS)(2)] (2b) and trinuclear [{Ni(Salen)}(2)Ni(NCS)(2)] (3) respectively. All the complexes have been characterized by elemental analyses, IR and UV-VIS spectra, and room temperature magnetic susceptibility measurements. The structures of la and 2b have been confirmed by X-ray single crystal analysis. In complex la, the Ni(II) atom is coordinated equatorially by the tetradentate, mononegative Schiff-base, HSalpn. Axial coordination of isothiocyanate group and a water molecule completes its octahedral geometry. The hydrogen atom attached to one of the oxygen atoms of the Schiff base is involved in a very strong hydrogen bond with a neighboring unit to form a centrosymmetric dimer. In 2b, two square planar [Ni(Salpen)] units act as bide mate oxygen donor ligands to a central Ni(II) which is also coordinated by two mutually cis N-bonded thiocyanate ligands to complete its distorted octahedral geometry. Complex 3 possesses a similar structure to that of 2b. A dehydrated form of la and a hydrated form of 2b have been obtained and characterized. The importance of electronic and steric factors in the variation of the structures is discussed. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Western Chess: Endgame data

This spreadsheet contains key data about that part of the endgame of Western Chess for which Endgame Tables (EGTs) have been generated by computer. It is derived from the EGT work since 1969 of Thomas Ströhlein, Ken Thompson, Christopher Wirth, Eugene Nalimov, Marc Bourzutschky, John Tamplin and Yakov Konoval. The data includes %s of wins, draws and losses (wtm and btm), the maximum and average depths of win under various metrics (DTC = Depth to Conversion, DTM = Depth to Mate, DTZ = Depth to Conversion or Pawn-push), and examples of positions of maximum depth. It is essentially about sub-7-man Chess but is updated as news comes in of 7-man EGT computations.

Western Chess: Zugzwang data

This data is derived from Eugene Nalimov's Depth-to-Mate Endgame Tables for Western Chess. While having the move is normally advantageous, there are positions where the side-to-move would have a better theoretical result if it were the other side to move. These are (Type A) 'zugzwang' positions where the 'obligation to act' is unwelcome. This data provides lists of all zugzwangs in sub-7-man chess, and summary data about those sets of zugzwangs including exemplar zugzwangs of maximum depth.

Chess Endgame News

Three topics are discussed. First, an issue in the epistemology of computer simulation - that of the chess endgame 'becoming' what computer-generated data says it is. Secondly, the endgames of the longest known games are discussed, and the concept of a Bionic Game is defined. Lastly, the set of record-depth positions published by Bourzutschky and Konoval are evaluated by the new MVL tables in Moscow - alongside the deepest known mate of 549 moves.

Six-man Oracle Survey, 1

This is a list in GBR order of existing 6-man endgame tables (EGTs) created by Nalimov (DTM, Distance to Mate) or Thompson (DTC, Distance to Conversion).

Haworth's Law

The maximum 'Depth to Mate' (DTM(k)) data for k-man chess, k = 3-7, is now available: log(maxDTM(k)) demonstrates quasi-linear behaviour. This note predicts maxDTM for 8- to 10-man chess and the two-sigma distributions around these figures. 'Haworth's Law' is the conjecture that maxDTM will continue to demonstrate this behaviour for some time to come. The supporting datafile is a pgn of maxDTM positions, each having a DTM-minimaxing line of play from it to 'mate'.

Dissecting the illegal ivory trade: an analysis of ivory seizures data

Reliable evidence of trends in the illegal ivory trade is important for informing decision making for elephants but it is difficult to obtain due to the covert nature of the trade. The Elephant Trade Information System, a global database of reported seizures of illegal ivory, holds the only extensive information on illicit trade available. However inherent biases in seizure data make it difficult to infer trends; countries differ in their ability to make and report seizures and these differences cannot be directly measured. We developed a new modelling framework to provide quantitative evidence on trends in the illegal ivory trade from seizures data. The framework used Bayesian hierarchical latent variable models to reduce bias in seizures data by identifying proxy variables that describe the variability in seizure and reporting rates between countries and over time. Models produced bias-adjusted smoothed estimates of relative trends in illegal ivory activity for raw and worked ivory in three weight classes. Activity is represented by two indicators describing the number of illegal ivory transactions--Transactions Index--and the total weight of illegal ivory transactions--Weights Index--at global, regional or national levels. Globally, activity was found to be rapidly increasing and at its highest level for 16 years, more than doubling from 2007 to 2011 and tripling from 1998 to 2011. Over 70% of the Transactions Index is from shipments of worked ivory weighing less than 10 kg and the rapid increase since 2007 is mainly due to increased consumption in China. Over 70% of the Weights Index is from shipments of raw ivory weighing at least 100 kg mainly moving from Central and East Africa to Southeast and East Asia. The results tie together recent findings on trends in poaching rates, declining populations and consumption and provide detailed evidence to inform international decision making on elephants.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Biology and reproductive behavior of Murgantia histrionica (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae)

Life history parameters and reproductive behaviors of the harlequin bug, Murgantia histrionica Hahn (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae), were determined. Total developmental time from egg to adult was ≈48 d. After a sexual maturation period of ≈7 d, both sexes mated repeatedly, with females laying multiple egg masses of 12 eggs at intervals of 3 d. Adult females lived an average of 41 d, whereas adult males lived an average of 25 d. Courtship and copulation activities peaked in the middle of the photophase. In mating experiments in which mixed sex pairs of virgin and previously mated bugs were combined in all possible combinations, the durations of courtship and copulation by virgin males were significantly longer with both virgin and previously mated females than the same behaviors for previously mated males. When given a choice between a virgin or previously mated female, previously mated males preferred to mate with virgin females, whereas virgin males showed no preference for virgin over previously mated females. Analyses of mating behaviors with ethograms and behavioral transition matrices suggested that a primary reason for failure to copulate by virgin males was the incorrect rotation of their pygophores to the copulation position, so that successful alignment of the genitalia could not occur.

Disrupting the market for illegal rhino horn and ivory

This paper considers methods for regulating the trafficking of rhino horn and ivory, seen through the lens of compliance theories. It stresses the importance of the distinction between normative and instrumental motivations. It argues for a balanced set of strategies that include normative levers designed to change the behaviour of poachers, traffickers and consumers of these products. In particular it considers the options needed to achieve demand reduction in consumer countries, and those needed to provide incentives to local communities in producer countries to disengage from poaching.