979 resultados para Markov Processes
Resumo:
Enterprise Systems (ES) provide standardized, off-theshelf support for operations and management within organizations. With the advent of ES based on a serviceoriented architecture (SOA) and an increasing demand of IT-supported interorganizational collaboration, implementation projects face paradigmatically new challenges. The configuration of ES is costly and error-prone. Dependencies between business processes and business documents are hardly explicit and foster component proliferation instead of reuse. Configurative modeling can support the problem in two ways: First, conceptual modeling abstracts from technical details and provides more intuitive access and overview. Second, configuration allows the projection of variants from master models providing manageable variants with controlled flexibility. We aim at tackling the problem by proposing an integrated model-based framework for configuring both, processes and business documents, on an equal basis; as together, they constitute the core business components of an ES.
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It is a basis of darwinian evolution that the microevolutionary mechanisms that can be studied in the present are sufficient to account for macroevolution. However, this idea needs to be tested explicitly, as highlighted here by the example of the superceding of dinosaurs and pterosaurs by birds and placental mammals that occurred near the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary approximately 65 million years ago. A major problem for testing the sufficiency of microevolutionary processes is that independent ideas (such as the existence of an extraterrestrial impact, and the extinction of dinosaurs) were linked without the evidence for each idea being evaluated separately. Here, we suggest and discuss five testable models for the times and divergences of modern mammals and birds. Determination of the model that best represents these events will enable the role of microevolutionary mechanisms to be evaluated. The question of the sufficiency of microevolutionary processes for macroevolution is solvable, and available evidence supports an important role for biological processes in the initial decline of dinosaurs and pterosaurs.
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As the world’s population is growing, so is the demand for agricultural products. However, natural nitrogen (N) fixation and phosphorus (P) availability cannot sustain the rising agricultural production, thus, the application of N and P fertilisers as additional nutrient sources is common. It is those anthropogenic activities that can contribute high amounts of organic and inorganic nutrients to both surface and groundwaters resulting in degradation of water quality and a possible reduction of aquatic life. In addition, runoff and sewage from urban and residential areas can contain high amounts of inorganic and organic nutrients which may also affect water quality. For example, blooms of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula along the coastline of southeast Queensland are an indicator of at least short term decreases of water quality. Although Australian catchments, including those with intensive forms of land use, show in general a low export of nutrients compared to North American and European catchments, certain land use practices may still have a detrimental effect on the coastal environment. Numerous studies are reported on nutrient cycling and associated processes on a catchment scale in the Northern Hemisphere. Comparable studies in Australia, in particular in subtropical regions are, however, limited and there is a paucity in the data, in particular for inorganic and organic forms of nitrogen and phosphorus; these nutrients are important limiting factors in surface waters to promote algal blooms. Therefore, the monitoring of N and P and understanding the sources and pathways of these nutrients within a catchment is important in coastal zone management. Although Australia is the driest continent, in subtropical regions such as southeast Queensland, rainfall patterns have a significant effect on runoff and thus the nutrient cycle at a catchment scale. Increasingly, these rainfall patterns are becoming variable. The monitoring of these climatic conditions and the hydrological response of agricultural catchments is therefore also important to reduce the anthropogenic effects on surface and groundwater quality. This study consists of an integrated hydrological–hydrochemical approach that assesses N and P in an environment with multiple land uses. The main aim is to determine the nutrient cycle within a representative coastal catchment in southeast Queensland, the Elimbah Creek catchment. In particular, the investigation confirms the influence associated with forestry and agriculture on N and P forms, sources, distribution and fate in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting. In addition, the study determines whether N and P are subject to transport into the adjacent estuary and thus into the marine environment; also considered is the effect of local topography, soils and geology on N and P sources and distribution. The thesis is structured on four components individually reported. The first paper determines the controls of catchment settings and processes on stream water, riverbank sediment, and shallow groundwater N and P concentrations, in particular during the extended dry conditions that were encountered during the study. Temporal and spatial factors such as seasonal changes, soil character, land use and catchment morphology are considered as well as their effect on controls over distributions of N and P in surface waters and associated groundwater. A total number of 30 surface and 13 shallow groundwater sampling sites were established throughout the catchment to represent dominant soil types and the land use upstream of each sampling location. Sampling comprises five rounds and was conducted over one year between October 2008 and November 2009. Surface water and groundwater samples were analysed for all major dissolved inorganic forms of N and for total N. Phosphorus was determined in the form of dissolved reactive P (predominantly orthophosphate) and total P. In addition, extracts of stream bank sediments and soil grab samples were analysed for these N and P species. Findings show that major storm events, in particular after long periods of drought conditions, are the driving force of N cycling. This is expressed by higher inorganic N concentrations in the agricultural subcatchment compared to the forested subcatchment. Nitrate N is the dominant inorganic form of N in both the surface and groundwaters and values are significantly higher in the groundwaters. Concentrations in the surface water range from 0.03 to 0.34 mg N L..1; organic N concentrations are considerably higher (average range: 0.33 to 0.85 mg N L..1), in particular in the forested subcatchment. Average NO3-N in the groundwater has a range of 0.39 to 2.08 mg N L..1, and organic N averages between 0.07 and 0.3 mg N L..1. The stream bank sediments are dominated by organic N (range: 0.53 to 0.65 mg N L..1), and the dominant inorganic form of N is NH4-N with values ranging between 0.38 and 0.41 mg N L..1. Topography and soils, however, were not to have a significant effect on N and P concentrations in waters. Detectable phosphorus in the surface and groundwaters of the catchment is limited to several locations typically in the proximity of areas with intensive animal use; in soil and sediments, P is negligible. In the second paper, the stable isotopes of N (14N/15N) and H2O (16O/18O and 2H/H) in surface and groundwaters are used to identify sources of dissolved inorganic and organic N in these waters, and to determine their pathways within the catchment; specific emphasis is placed on the relation of forestry and agriculture. Forestry is predominantly concentrated in the northern subcatchment (Beerburrum Creek) while agriculture is mainly found in the southern subcatchment (Six Mile Creek). Results show that agriculture (horticulture, crops, grazing) is the main source of inorganic N in the surface waters of the agricultural subcatchment, and their isotopic signature shows a close link to evaporation processes that may occur during water storage in farm dams that are used for irrigation. Groundwaters are subject to denitrification processes that may result in reduced dissolved inorganic N concentrations. Soil organic matter delivers most of the inorganic N to the surface water in the forested subcatchment. Here, precipitation and subsequently runoff is the main source of the surface waters. Groundwater in this area is affected by agricultural processes. The findings also show that the catchment can attenuate the effects of anthropogenic land use on surface water quality. Riparian strips of natural remnant vegetation, commonly 50 to 100 m in width, act as buffer zones along the drainage lines in the catchment and remove inorganic N from the soil water before it enters the creek. These riparian buffer zones are common in most agricultural catchments of southeast Queensland and are indicated to reduce the impact of agriculture on stream water quality and subsequently on the estuary and marine environments. This reduction is expressed by a significant decrease in DIN concentrations from 1.6 mg N L..1 to 0.09 mg N L..1, and a decrease in the �15N signatures from upstream surface water locations downstream to the outlet of the agricultural subcatchment. Further testing is, however, necessary to confirm these processes. Most importantly, the amount of N that is transported to the adjacent estuary is shown to be negligible. The third and fourth components of the thesis use a hydrological catchment model approach to determine the water balance of the Elimbah Creek catchment. The model is then used to simulate the effects of land use on the water balance and nutrient loads of the study area. The tool that is used is the internationally widely applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Knowledge about the water cycle of a catchment is imperative in nutrient studies as processes such as rainfall, surface runoff, soil infiltration and routing of water through the drainage system are the driving forces of the catchment nutrient cycle. Long-term information about discharge volumes of the creeks and rivers do, however, not exist for a number of agricultural catchments in southeast Queensland, and such information is necessary to calibrate and validate numerical models. Therefore, a two-step modelling approach was used to calibrate and validate parameters values from a near-by gauged reference catchment as starting values for the ungauged Elimbah Creek catchment. Transposing monthly calibrated and validated parameter values from the reference catchment to the ungauged catchment significantly improved model performance showing that the hydrological model of the catchment of interest is a strong predictor of the water water balance. The model efficiency coefficient EF shows that 94% of the simulated discharge matches the observed flow whereas only 54% of the observed streamflow was simulated by the SWAT model prior to using the validated values from the reference catchment. In addition, the hydrological model confirmed that total surface runoff contributes the majority of flow to the surface water in the catchment (65%). Only a small proportion of the water in the creek is contributed by total base-flow (35%). This finding supports the results of the stable isotopes 16O/18O and 2H/H, which show the main source of water in the creeks is either from local precipitation or irrigation waters delivered by surface runoff; a contribution from the groundwater (baseflow) to the creeks could not be identified using 16O/18O and 2H/H. In addition, the SWAT model calculated that around 68% of the rainfall occurring in the catchment is lost through evapotranspiration reflecting the prevailing long-term drought conditions that were observed prior and during the study. Stream discharge from the forested subcatchment was an order of magnitude lower than discharge from the agricultural Six Mile Creek subcatchment. A change in land use from forestry to agriculture did not significantly change the catchment water balance, however, nutrient loads increased considerably. Conversely, a simulated change from agriculture to forestry resulted in a significant decrease of nitrogen loads. The findings of the thesis and the approach used are shown to be of value to catchment water quality monitoring on a wider scale, in particular the implications of mixed land use on nutrient forms, distributions and concentrations. The study confirms that in the tropics and subtropics the water balance is affected by extended dry periods and seasonal rainfall with intensive storm events. In particular, the comprehensive data set of inorganic and organic N and P forms in the surface and groundwaters of this subtropical setting acquired during the one year sampling program may be used in similar catchment hydrological studies where these detailed information is missing. Also, the study concludes that riparian buffer zones along the catchment drainage system attenuate the transport of nitrogen from agricultural sources in the surface water. Concentrations of N decreased from upstream to downstream locations and were negligible at the outlet of the catchment.
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We examine which capabilities technologies provide to support collaborative process modeling. We develop a model that explains how technology capabilities impact cognitive group processes, and how they lead to improved modeling outcomes and positive technology beliefs. We test this model through a free simulation experiment of collaborative process modelers structured around a set of modeling tasks. With our study, we provide an understanding of the process of collaborative process modeling, and detail implications for research and guidelines for the practical design of collaborative process modeling.
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Video presented as part of ACIS 2009 conference in Melbourne Australia. This movie is a demonstration of the use of 3D Virtual Environments to visualise 3D BPMN Process Models, and in particular, to highlight any issues with the process model that are spatial in nature. This work is part of a paper accepted for the Asia-Pacific Conference on Conceptual Modelling (APCCM 2010) to be held in Brisbane - http://2010.apccm.org/
Resumo:
Situated on Youtube, and shown in various locations. In this video we show a 3D mock up of a personal house purchasing process. A path traversal metaphor is used to give a sense of progression along the process stages. The intention is to be able to use console devices like an Xbox to consume business processes. This is so businesses can expose their internal processes to consumers using sophisticated user interfaces. The demonstrator was developed using Microsoft XNA, with assistance from the Suncorp Bank and the Smart Services CRC. More information at: www.bpmve.org
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A dual-scale model of the torrefaction of wood was developed and used to study industrial configurations. At the local scale, the computational code solves the coupled heat and mass transfer and the thermal degradation mechanisms of the wood components. At the global scale, the two-way coupling between the boards and the stack channels is treated as an integral component of the process. This model is used to investigate the effect of the stack configuration on the heat treatment of the boards. The simulations highlight that the exothermic reactions occurring in each single board can be accumulated along the stack. This phenomenon may result in a dramatic eterogeneity of the process and poses a serious risk of thermal runaway, which is often observed in industrial plants. The model is used to explain how thermal runaway can be lowered by increasing the airflow velocity, the sticker thickness or by gas flow reversal.
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When organizational scandals occur, the common refrain among commentators is: 'Where was the board in all this?' 'How could the directors not have known what was going on?''Why didn't the board intervene?' The scandals demonstrate that board monitoring or oganizational performance is a matter of great importance. By monitoring, we mean the act of keeping the organization under review. In many English-speaking countries, directors have a legal duty of care, which includes duties to monitor the performance of their organizations (Hopt and von Hippel 2010). However, statutory law typically merely states the duty, while providing little guidance on how that duty can be met.
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An estuary is formed at the mouth of a river where the tides meet a freshwater flow and it may be classified as a function of the salinity distribution and density stratification. An overview of the broad characteristics of the estuaries of South-East Queensland(Australia) is presented herein, where the small peri-urban estuaries may provide an useful indicator of potential changes which might occur in larger systems with growing urbanisation. Small peri-urban estuaries exhibits many key hydrological features and associated with ecosystem types of larger estuaries, albeit at smaller scales, often with a greater extent of urban development as a proportion of catchment area. We explore the potential for some smaller peri-urban estuaries to be used as natural laboratories to gain some much needed information on the estuarine processes, although any dynamics similarity is presently limited by critical absence of in-depth physical investigation in larger estuarine systems. The absence of the detailed turbulence and sedimentary data hampers the understanding and modelling of the estuarine zones. The interactions between the various stake holders are likely to define the vision for the future of South-East Queensland's peri-urban estuaries. This will require a solid understanding of the bio-physical function and capacity of the peri-urban estuaries. Based upon the knowledge gap, it is recommended that an adaptive trial and error approach be adopted for the future of investigation and management strategies.
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Groundwater flow models are usually characterized as being either transient flow models or steady state flow models. Given that steady state groundwater flow conditions arise as a long time asymptotic limit of a particular transient response, it is natural for us to seek a finite estimate of the amount of time required for a particular transient flow problem to effectively reach steady state. Here, we introduce the concept of mean action time (MAT) to address a fundamental question: How long does it take for a groundwater recharge process or discharge processes to effectively reach steady state? This concept relies on identifying a cumulative distribution function, $F(t;x)$, which varies from $F(0;x)=0$ to $F(t;x) \to \infty$ as $t\to \infty$, thereby providing us with a measurement of the progress of the system towards steady state. The MAT corresponds to the mean of the associated probability density function $f(t;x) = \dfrac{dF}{dt}$, and we demonstrate that this framework provides useful analytical insight by explicitly showing how the MAT depends on the parameters in the model and the geometry of the problem. Additional theoretical results relating to the variance of $f(t;x)$, known as the variance of action time (VAT), are also presented. To test our theoretical predictions we include measurements from a laboratory–scale experiment describing flow through a homogeneous porous medium. The laboratory data confirms that the theoretical MAT predictions are in good agreement with measurements from the physical model.
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Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.
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Purpose: Flat-detector, cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. Methods: The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field (MRF) model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk (OAR). The voxel labels are estimated using the iterated conditional modes (ICM) algorithm. Results: The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom (CIRS, Inc. model 062). The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. Conclusions: By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.
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The importance of applying unsaturated soil mechanics to geotechnical engineering design has been well understood. However, the consumption of time and the necessity for a specific laboratory testing apparatus when measuring unsaturated soil properties have limited the application of unsaturated soil mechanics theories in practice. Although methods for predicting unsaturated soil properties have been developed, the verification of these methods for a wide range of soil types is required in order to increase the confidence of practicing engineers in using these methods. In this study, a new permeameter was developed to measure the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils using the steady-state method and directly measured suction (negative pore-water pressure) values. The apparatus is instrumented with two tensiometers for the direct measurement of suction during the tests. The apparatus can be used to obtain the hydraulic conductivity function of sandy soil over a low suction range (0-10 kPa). Firstly, the repeatability of the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity measurement, using the new permeameter, was verified by conducting tests on two identical sandy soil specimens and obtaining similar results. The hydraulic conductivity functions of the two sandy soils were then measured during the drying and wetting processes of the soils. A significant hysteresis was observed when the hydraulic conductivity was plotted against the suction. However, the hysteresis effects were not apparent when the conductivity was plotted against the volumetric water content. Furthermore, the measured unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions were compared with predictions using three different predictive methods that are widely incorporated into numerical software. The results suggest that these predictive methods are capable of capturing the measured behavior with reasonable agreement.
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Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.
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Packaged software is pre-built with the intention of licensing it to users in domestic settings and work organisations. This thesis focuses upon the work organisation where packaged software has been characterised as one of the latest ‘solutions’ to the problems of information systems. The study investigates the packaged software selection process that has, to date, been largely viewed as objective and rational. In contrast, this interpretive study is based on a 21⁄2 year long field study of organisational experiences with packaged software selection at T.Co, a consultancy organisation based in the United Kingdom. Emerging from the iterative process of case study and action research is an alternative theory of packaged software selection. The research argues that packaged software selection is far from the rationalistic and linear process that previous studies suggest. Instead, the study finds that aspects of the traditional process of selection incorporating the activities of gathering requirements, evaluation and selection based on ‘best fit’ may or may not take place. Furthermore, even where these aspects occur they may not have equal weight or impact upon implementation and usage as may be expected. This is due to the influence of those multiple realities which originate from the organisational and market environments within which packages are created, selected and used, the lack of homogeneity in organisational contexts and the variously interpreted characteristics of the package in question.