Therapeutic drug monitoring of imatinib: Bayesian and alternative methods to predict trough levels

Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.

Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Family history of cancer: pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium.

Alcohol and tobacco consumption are well-recognized risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC). Evidence suggests that genetic predisposition may also play a role. Only a few epidemiologic studies, however, have considered the relation between HNC risk and family history of HNC and other cancers. We pooled individual-level data across 12 case-control studies including 8,967 HNC cases and 13,627 controls. We obtained pooled odds ratios (OR) using fixed and random effect models and adjusting for potential confounding factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. A family history of HNC in first-degree relatives increased the risk of HNC (OR=1.7, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.2-2.3). The risk was higher when the affected relative was a sibling (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.1) rather than a parent (OR=1.5, 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and for more distal HNC anatomic sites (hypopharynx and larynx). The risk was also higher, or limited to, in subjects exposed to tobacco. The OR rose to 7.2 (95% CI 5.5-9.5) among subjects with family history, who were alcohol and tobacco users. A weak but significant association (OR=1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2) emerged for family history of other tobacco-related neoplasms, particularly with laryngeal cancer (OR=1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5). No association was observed for family history of nontobacco-related neoplasms and the risk of HNC (OR=1.0, 95% CI 0.9-1.1). Familial factors play a role in the etiology of HNC. In both subjects with and without family history of HNC, avoidance of tobacco and alcohol exposure may be the best way to avoid HNC.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid population pharmacokinetics of temozolomide in malignant glioma patients

RESUME : Objectif: Le glioblastome multiforme (GBM) est la tumeur cérébrale maligne la plus agressive qui conduit au décès de la majorité des patients moins d'une année après le diagnostic. La plupart des agents chimiothérapeutiques actuellement disponibles ne traversent pas la barrière hémato¬encéphalique et ne peuvent par conséquent pas être utilisés pour ce type de tumeur. Le Temozolomide (TMZ) est un nouvel agent alkylant récemment développé pour le traitement des gliomes malins. A ce jour, très peu d'informations sont disponibles sur la pénétration intra-cérébrale de cet agent. Au cours d'une étude pilote de phase II menée auprès de 64 patients atteints de GBM, l'administration précoce de TMZ combinée à une radiothérapie standard (RT) afin d'intervenir au plus tôt dans l'évolution de la maladie, a permis de prolonger la survie de ces patients, résultat qui pu être confirmé par la suite lors de l'étude randomisée de phase III. L'objectif de cette étude a été de déterminer les paramètres pharmacocinétique du TMZ dans le plasma et le liquide céphalo-rachidien (LCR), d'évaluer l'influence de certains facteurs individuels (âge, sexe, surface corporelle, fonction rénale/hépatique, co-médications, RT concomitante) sur ces différents paramètres, et enfin d'explorer la relation existant entre l'exposition au TMZ et certains marqueurs cliniques d'efficacité et de toxicité. Matériel et Méthode: Les concentrations de TMZ ont été mesurées par chromatographie liquide à haute performance (HPLC) dans le plasma et le LCR de 35 patients atteints de GBM nouvellement diagnostiqués (étude pilote) ou de gliomes malins en récidive (étude récidive). L'analyse pharmacocinétique de population a été réalisée à l'aide du programme NONMEM. L'exposition systémique et cérébrale, définie par les AUC (Area Under the time-concentration Curve) dans le plasma et le LCR, a été estimée pour chaque patient et corrélée à la toxicité, la survie ainsi que la survie sans progression tumorale. Résultats: Un modèle à 1 compartiment avec une cinétique d'absorption et de transfert Kplasma -> LCR de ordre a été retenu afin de décrire le profil pharmacocinétique du TMZ. Les valeurs moyennes de population ont été de 10 L/h pour la clairance, de 30.3 L pour le volume de distribution, de 2.1 h pour la 1/2 vie d'élimination, de 5.78 hE-1 pour la constante d'absorption, de 7.2 10E4 hE-1 pour Kplasma->LCR et de 0.76 hE-1 pour KLCR plasma. La surface corporelle a montré une influence significative sur la clairance et le volume de distribution, alors que le sexe influence la clairance uniquement. L'AUC mesurée dans le LCR représente ~20% de celle du plasma et une augmentation de 15% de Kplasma->LCR a été observée lors du traitement concomitant de radiochimiothérapie. Conclusions: Cette étude est la première analyse pharmacocinétique effectuée chez l'homme permettant de quantifier la pénétration intra-cérébrale du TMZ. Le rapport AUC LCR/AUC Plasma a été de 20%. Le degré d'exposition systémique et cérébral au TMZ ne semble pas être un meilleur facteur prédictif de la survie ou de la tolérance au produit que ne l'est la dose cumulée seule. ABSTRACT Purpose: Scarce information is available on the brain penetration of temozolomide (TMZ), although this novel methylating agent is mainly used for the treatment of ma¬lignant brain tumors. The purpose was to assess TNIZ phar¬macokinetics in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) along with its inter-individual variability, to characterize covari¬ates and to explore relationships between systemic or cere¬bral drug exposure and clinical outcomes. Experimental Design: TMZ levels were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma and CSF samples from 35 patients with newly diagnosed or recurrent malignant gliomas. The population pharmacoki¬netic analysis was performed with nonlinear mixed-effect modeling software. Drug exposure, defined by the area un¬der the concentration-time curve (AUC) in plasma and CSF, was estimated for each patient and correlated with toxicity, survival, and progression-free survival. Results: A three-compartment model with first-order absorption and transfer rates between plasma and CSF described the data appropriately. Oral clearance was 10 liter/h; volume of distribution (VD), 30.3 liters; absorption constant rate, 5.8 hE-1; elimination half-time, 2.1 h; transfer rate from plasma to CSF (Kplasma->CSF), 7.2 x 10E-4hE-1 and the backwards rate, 0.76hE-1. Body surface area signifi¬cantly influenced both clearance and VD, and clearance was sex dependent. The AU CSF corresponded to 20% of the AUCplasma. A trend toward an increased K plasma->CSF of 15% was observed in case of concomitant radiochemo-therapy. No significant correlations between AUC in plasma or CSF and toxicity, survival, or progression-free survival were apparent after deduction of dose-effect. Conclusions: This is the first human pharmacokinetic study on TMZ to quantify CSF penetration. The AUC CSF/ AUC plasma ratio was 20%. Systemic or cerebral exposures are not better predictors than the cumulative dose alone for both efficacy and safety.

Assessing heterogeneity of effects on blood pressure in a meta-analysis of pharmacist interventions trials

Background: Recent reviews of randomized control trials have shown that pharmacist interventions improve cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk factors in outpatients. Various interventions were evaluated in different settings, and a substantial heterogeneity was observed in the effect estimates. To better express uncertainties in the effect estimates, prediction intervals (PI) have been proposed but are, however, rarely reported. Objective: Pooling data from two systematic reviews, we estimated the effect of pharmacist interventions on systolic blood pressure (BP), computed PI, and evaluated potential causes of heterogeneity. Methods: Data were pooled from systematic reviews assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on CVD risk factors in patients with or without diabetes, respectively. Effects were estimated using random effect models. Results: Systolic BP was the outcome in 31 trials including 12 373 patients. Pharmacist interventions included patient educational interventions, patient-reminder systems, measurement of BP, medication management and feedback to physician, or educational intervention to health care professionals. Pharmacist interventions were associated with a large reduction in systolic BP (-7.5 mmHg; 95% CI: -9.0 to -5.9). There was a substantial heterogeneity (I2: 66%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.0 mmHg. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was conducted in a community pharmacy and if the pharmacist intervened at least monthly. Conclusion: On average, the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP was substantial. However, the wide PI suggests that the effect differed between interventions, with some having modest effects and others very large effects on BP. Part of the heterogeneity could be due to differences in the setting and in the frequency of the interventions.

Improving blood pressure control through pharmacist interventions: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Control of blood pressure (BP) remains a major challenge in primary care. Innovative interventions to improve BP control are therefore needed. By updating and combining data from 2 previous systematic reviews, we assess the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP and identify potential determinants of heterogeneity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the effect of pharmacist interventions on BP among outpatients with or without diabetes were identified from MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. Weighted mean differences in BP were estimated using random effect models. Prediction intervals (PI) were computed to better express uncertainties in the effect estimates. Thirty-nine RCTs were included with 14 224 patients. Pharmacist interventions mainly included patient education, feedback to physician, and medication management. Compared with usual care, pharmacist interventions showed greater reduction in systolic BP (-7.6 mm Hg, 95% CI: -9.0 to -6.3; I(2)=67%) and diastolic BP (-3.9 mm Hg, 95% CI: -5.1 to -2.8; I(2)=83%). The 95% PI ranged from -13.9 to -1.4 mm Hg for systolic BP and from -9.9 to +2.0 mm Hg for diastolic BP. The effect tended to be larger if the intervention was led by the pharmacist and was done at least monthly. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacist interventions - alone or in collaboration with other healthcare professionals - improved BP management. Nevertheless, pharmacist interventions had differential effects on BP, from very large to modest or no effect; and determinants of heterogeneity could not be identified. Determining the most efficient, cost-effective, and least time-consuming intervention should be addressed with further research.

Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter.

The classical approach to predicting the geographical extent of species invasions consists of training models in the native range and projecting them in distinct, potentially invasible areas. However, recent studies have demonstrated that this approach could be hampered by a change of the realized climatic niche, allowing invasive species to spread into habitats in the invaded ranges that are climatically distinct from those occupied in the native range. We propose an alternative approach that involves fitting models with pooled data from all ranges. We show that this pooled approach improves prediction of the extent of invasion of spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa) in North America on models based solely on the European native range. Furthermore, it performs equally well on models based on the invaded range, while ensuring the inclusion of areas with similar climate to the European niche, where the species is likely to spread further. We then compare projections from these models for 2080 under a severe climate warming scenario. Projections from the pooled models show fewer areas of intermediate climatic suitability than projections from the native or invaded range models, suggesting a better consensus among modelling techniques and reduced uncertainty.

Randomized controlled trial of olanzapine or chlorpromazine as addition to lithium in the treatment of a first manic episode with psychotic features: an 8-week, flexible dose, single-blind trial

Background: Association of mood stabiliser and antipsychotic medication is indicated in psychotic mania, but specific guidelines for the treatment of a first episode of psychotic mania are needed. Aims: To compare safety and efficacy profiles of chlorpromazine and olanzapine augmentation of lithium treatment in a first episode of psychotic mania. Methods: A total of 83 patients were randomised to either lithium + chlorpromazine or lithium + olanzapine in an 8-week trial. Data was collected on side effects, vital signs and weight modifications, as well as on clinical variables. Results: There were no differences in the safety profiles of both medications, but patients in the olanzapine group were significantly more likely to have reached mania remission criteria after 8 weeks. Mixed effects models repeated measures analysis of variance showed that patients in the olanzapine group reached mania remission significantly earlier than those in the chlorpromazine group. Conclusions: These results suggest that while olanzapine and chlorpromazine have a similar safety profile in a cohort of patients with first episode of psychotic mania, the former has a greater efficacy on manic symptoms. On this basis, it may be a better choice for such conditions.

Monitoring the effects of adult psychotherapy in routine practice in Switzerland: A feasibility trial

Background: Several studies have been published on the effects of psychotherapy in routine practice. Complementing traditional views summarised as 'dose-effect models', Stiles et al. put forward data consistent with the responsive regulation model underlining the importance of the client's active participant role in defining length of treatment. One may ask what level of change reached by a patient is considered to be the 'good enough level' (GEL) and if it is related to the duration of psychotherapy. Aims: The main objective of the present feasibility trial was to monitor the patient's session-by-session evolution using a self-report questionnaire in order to define the GEL, i.e. the number of sessions necessary for the patient to reach significant change. Method: A total of N=13 patients undergoing psychotherapy in routine practice participated in the study, completing the Outcome Questionnaire - 45.2 (OQ-45), which assesses the symptom level, interpersonal relationships and social role after every psychotherapy session. The data was analysed using multi-level analyses (HLMs). Results: High feasibility of fine-grained assessment of effects of psychotherapy in routine practice in Switzerland was shown; response rates being acceptable; however, detailed analysis of the GEL was not feasible within the short study time-frame. Conclusions: Reflections on the political context of monitoring in the specific case of routine psychiatric practice in Switzerland are discussed.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.

Parameterized expectations approach; Some practical issues

We discuss some practical issues related to the use of the Parameterized Expectations Approach (PEA) for solving non-linear stochastic dynamic models with rational expectations. This approach has been applied in models of macroeconomics, financial economics, economic growth, contracttheory, etc. It turns out to be a convenient algorithm, especially when there is a large number of state variables and stochastic shocks in the conditional expectations. We discuss some practical issues having to do with the application of the algorithm, and we discuss a Fortran program for implementing the algorithm that is available through the internet.We discuss these issues in a battery of six examples.

Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

CD4(+) T cell count decreases by ethnicity among untreated patients with HIV infection in South Africa and Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the decrease in CD4(+) cell counts in untreated patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are important for patient care and public health. We analyzed CD4(+) cell count decreases in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We used mixed-effects models and joint models that allowed for the correlation between CD4(+) cell count decreases and survival and stratified analyses by the initial cell count (50-199, 200-349, 350-499, and 500-750 cells/microL). Results are presented as the mean decrease in CD4(+) cell count with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the first year after the initial CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: A total of 784 South African (629 nonwhite) and 2030 Swiss (218 nonwhite) patients with HIV infection contributed 13,388 CD4(+) cell counts. Decreases in CD4(+) cell count were steeper in white patients, patients with higher initial CD4(+) cell counts, and older patients. Decreases ranged from a mean of 38 cells/microL (95% CI, 24-54 cells/microL) in nonwhite patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 15-39 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 200-349 cells/microL to a mean of 210 cells/microL (95% CI, 143-268 cells/microL) in white patients in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort > or =40 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 500-750 cells/microL. CONCLUSIONS: Among both patients from Switzerland and patients from South Africa, CD4(+) cell count decreases were greater in white patients with HIV infection than they were in nonwhite patients with HIV infection.

Anemia and brain oxygen after severe traumatic brain injury.

PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between hemoglobin (Hgb) and brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO(2)) after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to examine its impact on outcome. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort of severe TBI patients whose PbtO(2) was monitored. The relationship between Hgb-categorized into four quartiles (≤9; 9-10; 10.1-11; >11 g/dl)-and PbtO(2) was analyzed using mixed-effects models. Anemia with compromised PbtO(2) was defined as episodes of Hgb ≤ 9 g/dl with simultaneous PbtO(2) < 20 mmHg. Outcome was assessed at 30 days using the Glasgow outcome score (GOS), dichotomized as favorable (GOS 4-5) vs. unfavorable (GOS 1-3). RESULTS: We analyzed 474 simultaneous Hgb and PbtO(2) samples from 80 patients (mean age 44 ± 20 years, median GCS 4 (3-7)). Using Hgb > 11 g/dl as the reference level, and controlling for important physiologic covariates (CPP, PaO(2), PaCO(2)), Hgb ≤ 9 g/dl was the only Hgb level that was associated with lower PbtO(2) (coefficient -6.53 (95 % CI -9.13; -3.94), p < 0.001). Anemia with simultaneous PbtO(2) < 20 mmHg, but not anemia alone, increased the risk of unfavorable outcome (odds ratio 6.24 (95 % CI 1.61; 24.22), p = 0.008), controlling for age, GCS, Marshall CT grade, and APACHE II score. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of severe TBI patients whose PbtO(2) was monitored, a Hgb level no greater than 9 g/dl was associated with compromised PbtO(2). Anemia with simultaneous compromised PbtO(2), but not anemia alone, was a risk factor for unfavorable outcome, irrespective of injury severity.

Brain volumetric correlates of autism spectrum disorder symptoms in attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) symptoms frequently occur in subjects with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). While there is evidence that both ADHD and ASD have differential structural correlates, no study to date has investigated these structural correlates within a framework that robustly accounts for the phenotypic overlap between the two disorders. The presence of ASD symptoms was measured by the parent-reported Children's Social and Behavioural Questionnaire (CSBQ) in ADHD subjects (n = 180), their unaffected siblings (n = 118) and healthy controls (n = 146). ADHD symptoms were assessed by a structured interview (K-SADS-PL) and the Conners' ADHD questionnaires. Whole brain T1-weighted MPRAGE images were acquired and the structural MRI correlates of ASD symptom scores were analysed by modelling ASD symptom scores against white matter (WM) and grey matter (GM) volumes using mixed effects models which controlled for ADHD symptom levels. ASD symptoms were significantly elevated in ADHD subjects relative to both controls and unaffected siblings. ASD scores were predicted by the interaction between WM and GM volumes. Increasing ASD score was associated with greater GM volume. Equivocal results from previous structural studies in ADHD and ASD may be due to the fact that comorbidity has not been taken into account in studies to date. The current findings stress the need to account for issues of ASD comorbidity in ADHD.