Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries

Using Monte Carlo simulation for radiotherapy dose calculation can provide more accurate results when compared to the analytical methods usually found in modern treatment planning systems, especially in regions with a high degree of inhomogeneity. These more accurate results acquired using Monte Carlo simulation however, often require orders of magnitude more calculation time so as to attain high precision, thereby reducing its utility within the clinical environment. This work aims to improve the utility of Monte Carlo simulation within the clinical environment by developing techniques which enable faster Monte Carlo simulation of radiotherapy geometries. This is achieved principally through the use new high performance computing environments and simpler alternative, yet equivalent representations of complex geometries. Firstly the use of cloud computing technology and it application to radiotherapy dose calculation is demonstrated. As with other super-computer like environments, the time to complete a simulation decreases as 1=n with increasing n cloud based computers performing the calculation in parallel. Unlike traditional super computer infrastructure however, there is no initial outlay of cost, only modest ongoing usage fees; the simulations described in the following are performed using this cloud computing technology. The definition of geometry within the chosen Monte Carlo simulation environment - Geometry & Tracking 4 (GEANT4) in this case - is also addressed in this work. At the simulation implementation level, a new computer aided design interface is presented for use with GEANT4 enabling direct coupling between manufactured parts and their equivalent in the simulation environment, which is of particular importance when defining linear accelerator treatment head geometry. Further, a new technique for navigating tessellated or meshed geometries is described, allowing for up to 3 orders of magnitude performance improvement with the use of tetrahedral meshes in place of complex triangular surface meshes. The technique has application in the definition of both mechanical parts in a geometry as well as patient geometry. Static patient CT datasets like those found in typical radiotherapy treatment plans are often very large and present a significant performance penalty on a Monte Carlo simulation. By extracting the regions of interest in a radiotherapy treatment plan, and representing them in a mesh based form similar to those used in computer aided design, the above mentioned optimisation techniques can be used so as to reduce the time required to navigation the patient geometry in the simulation environment. Results presented in this work show that these equivalent yet much simplified patient geometry representations enable significant performance improvements over simulations that consider raw CT datasets alone. Furthermore, this mesh based representation allows for direct manipulation of the geometry enabling motion augmentation for time dependant dose calculation for example. Finally, an experimental dosimetry technique is described which allows the validation of time dependant Monte Carlo simulation, like the ones made possible by the afore mentioned patient geometry definition. A bespoke organic plastic scintillator dose rate meter is embedded in a gel dosimeter thereby enabling simultaneous 3D dose distribution and dose rate measurement. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of applying alternative and equivalent geometry definitions to complex geometries for the purposes of Monte Carlo simulation performance improvement. Additionally, these alternative geometry definitions allow for manipulations to be performed on otherwise static and rigid geometry.

The big data upgrade : new dimensions in data analysis - risks and opportunities [das big data upgrade : neue dimensionen der datennutzung – chancen und risiken]

Summary: More than ever before contemporary societies are characterised by the huge amounts of data being transferred. Authorities, companies, academia and other stakeholders refer to Big Data when discussing the importance of large and complex datasets and developing possible solutions for their use. Big Data promises to be the next frontier of innovation for institutions and individuals, yet it also offers possibilities to predict and influence human behaviour with ever-greater precision

The nature of intra-familial conflict in large-scale privately-held family businesses in Indonesia

This thesis is a qualitative study aimed at better capturing the complexity of conflict in family businesses. An inductive content analysis revealed two important issues: the dynamics of intergenerational conflicts and the escalation process of conflicts. The results demonstrated that conflicts are more likely to be intergenerational than intra-generational due to the role of senior members in daily business operations, generational differences, and a perception gap that exist between generations concerning each other’s competencies in doing the business. Furthermore, the set of factors contributing to conflict escalation is related to how family members handle the conflict, how they manage their emotions, and how they are able to avoid non-family employee involvement. These findings provide a foundation for taking preventative actions, implementing strategies for managing conflicts or devising effective solutions for resolving conflicts before they become more destructive.

Virtual birding : extending an environmental pastime into the virtual world for citizen science

This paper investigates engaging experienced birders, as volunteer citizen scientists, to analyze large recorded audio datasets gathered through environmental acoustic monitoring. Although audio data is straightforward to gather, automated analysis remains a challenging task; the existing expertise, local knowledge and motivation of the birder community can complement computational approaches and provide distinct benefits. We explored both the culture and practice of birders, and paradigms for interacting with recorded audio data. A variety of candidate design elements were tested with birders. This study contributes an understanding of how virtual interactions and practices can be developed to complement existing practices of experienced birders in the physical world. In so doing this study contributes a new approach to engagement in e-science. Whereas most citizen science projects task lay participants with discrete real world or artificial activities, sometimes using extrinsic motivators, this approach builds on existing intrinsically satisfying practices.

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the regenerative potential of osteoblasts versus bone marrow derived mesenchymal stem cells in the reconstruction of critical sized segmental tibial bone defects in a large animal model

This thesis is about the use of different cells for bone tissue engineering. The cells were used in combination with a novel biomaterial in a large tibial bone defects in a sheep model. Furthermore this study developed a novel cell delivery procedure for bone tissue engineering. This novel procedure of cell delivery could overcome the current problems of cell-based tissue engineering and serve as a baseline for the translation of novel concepts into clinical application.

Sleepless nights : the effect of socioeconomic status, physical activity, and lifestyle factors on sleep quality in a large cohort of Australian women

The aims of this study were to examine: (1) the association between sociodemographic and lifestyle factors and sleep quality in a population-based cohort of Australian women and (2) possible influence of reproductive status and mental and physical health factors on these associations. Data on 3,655 women (mean age046.6 years, range 34.3–67.4) were obtained from the Mater Hospital University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy for this cross-sectional study. Self-rated sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. For the purpose of this study, two cutoff points (scores 5 and 10) were used to divide women into three categories: normal (65.2 %), moderately poor (26.4 %), and very poor sleep quality (8.5 %). Other covariates were measured at 21-year follow-up as well. After adjusting for reproductive status, mental and physical health, there were significant associations between moderately poor sleep quality and education and between very poor sleep quality and unemployment, both measures of socioeconomic status. In addition, work-related exertion was associated with increased rates of moderately poor sleep quality, whereas those women undertaking moderate exercise were less likely to experience very poor sleep quality. Independent associations between sociodemographic factors and exercise with moderately poor and very poor sleep quality were identified. These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between exercise/exertion, socioeconomic status, and sleep quality and highlight the importance of taking these into consideration when dealing with issues of poor sleep quality in women.

The Cube : a very large-scale interactive engagement space

“The Cube” is a unique facility that combines 48 large multi-touch screens and very large-scale projection surfaces to form one of the world’s largest interactive learning and engagement spaces. The Cube facility is part of the Queensland University of Technology’s (QUT) newly established Science and Engineering Centre, designed to showcase QUT’s teaching and research capabilities in the STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) disciplines. In this application paper we describe, the Cube, its technical capabilities, design rationale and practical day-to-day operations, supporting up to 70,000 visitors per week. Essential to the Cube’s operation are five interactive applications designed and developed in tandem with the Cube’s technical infrastructure. Each of the Cube’s launch applications was designed and delivered by an independent team, while the overall vision of the Cube was shepherded by a small executive team. The diversity of design, implementation and integration approaches pursued by these five teams provides some insight into the challenges, and opportunities, presented when working with large distributed interaction technologies. We describe each of these applications in order to discuss the different challenges and user needs they address, which types of interactions they support and how they utilise the capabilities of the Cube facility.

CubIT : Large-scale multi-user presentation and collaboration

CubIT is a multi-user, large-scale presentation and collaboration framework installed at the Queensland University of Technology’s (QUT) Cube facility, an interactive facility made up 48 multi-touch screens and very large projected display screens. CubIT was built to make the Cube facility accessible to QUT’s academic and student population. The system allows users to upload, interact with and share media content on the Cube’s very large display surfaces. CubIT implements a unique combination of features including RFID authentication, content management through multiple interfaces, multi-user shared workspace support, drag and drop upload and sharing, dynamic state control between different parts of the system and execution and synchronisation of the system across multiple computing nodes.

The Large Allen Cognitive Level Screen as an indicator for medication adherence among adults accessing community mental health services

Background: Medication remains the cornerstone treatment for mental illness. Cognition is one of the strongest predictors of non-adherence. The aim of this preliminary investigation was to examine the association between the Large Allen Cognitive Level Screen (LACLS) and medication adherence among a small sample of mental health service users to determine whether the LACLS has potential as a screening tool for capacity to manage medication regimens. Method: Demographic and clinical information was collected from a small sample of people who had recently accessed community mental health services. Participants then completed the LACLS and the Medication Adherence Rating Scale (MARS) at a single time point. The strength of association between the LACLS and MARS was examined using Spearman rank-order correlation. Results: A strong positive correlation between the LACLS and medication adherence (r = 0.71, p = 0.01) was evident. No participants reported the use of medication aids despite evidence of impaired cognitive functioning. Conclusion: This investigation has provided the first empirical evidence indicating that the LACLS may have utility as a screening instrument for capacity to manage medication adherence among this population. While promising, this finding should be interpreted with caveats given its preliminary nature.

Development of a large scale flexible LED display matrix for the screen industry

This project addresses the viability of lightweight, low power consumption, flexible, large format LED screens. The investigation encompasses all aspects of the electrical and mechanical design, individually and as a system, and achieves a successful full scale prototype. The prototype implements novel techniques to achieve large displacement colour aliasing, a purely passive thermal management solution, a rapid deployment system, individual seven bit LED current control with two way display communication, auto-configuration and complete signal redundancy, all of which are in direct response to industry needs.

Supporting collaboration in large-scale multi-user workspaces

CubIT is a multi-user, large-scale presentation and collaboration framework installed at the Queensland University of Technology’s (QUT) Cube facility, an interactive facility made up 48 multi-touch screens and very large projected display screens. The CubIT system allows users to upload, interact with and share their own content on the Cube’s display surfaces. This paper outlines the collaborative features of CubIT which are implemented via three user interfaces, a large-screen multi-touch interface, a mobile phone and tablet application and a web-based content management system. Each of these applications plays a different role and supports different interaction mechanisms supporting a wide range of collaborative features including multi-user shared workspaces, drag and drop upload and sharing between users, session management and dynamic state control between different parts of the system.

Large-scale association study identifies ICAM gene region as breast and prostate cancer susceptibility locus

We conducted a large-scale association study to identify genes that influence nonfamilial breast cancer risk using a collection of German cases and matched controls and >25,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms located within 16,000 genes. One of the candidate loci identified was located on chromosome 19p13.2 [odds ratio (OR) = 1.5, P = 0.001]. The effect was substantially stronger in the subset of cases with reported family history of breast cancer (OR = 3.4, P = 0.001). The finding was subsequently replicated in two independent collections (combined OR = 1.4, P < 0.001) and was also associated with predisposition to prostate cancer in an independent sample set of prostate cancer cases and matched controls (OR = 1.4, P = 0.002). High-density single nucleotide polymorphism mapping showed that the extent of association spans 20 kb and includes the intercellular adhesion molecule genes ICAM1, ICAM4, and ICAM5. Although genetic variants in ICAM5 showed the strongest association with disease status, ICAM1 is expressed at highest levels in normal and tumor breast tissue. A variant in ICAM5 was also associated with disease progression and prognosis. Because ICAMs are suitable targets for antibodies and small molecules, these findings may not only provide diagnostic and prognostic markers but also new therapeutic opportunities in breast and prostate cancer.

Diurnal variation of small and large ion concentrations in an urban location

A Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer (NAIS) was used to monitor the concentration of airborne ions on 258 full days between Nov 2011 and Dec 2012 in Brisbane, Australia. The air was sampled from outside a window on the sixth floor of a building close to the city centre, approximately 100 m away from a busy freeway. The NAIS detects all ions and charged particles smaller than 42 nm. It was operated in a 4 min measurement cycle, with ion data recorded at 10 s intervals over 2 min during each cycle. The data were analysed to derive the diurnal variation of small, large and total ion concentrations in the environment. We adapt the definition of Horrak et al (2000) and classify small ions as molecular clusters smaller than 1.6 nm and large ions as charged particles larger than this size...

Association of oestrogen-receptor gene (ESR1) polymorphisms with migraine in the large Norfolk Island pedigree

BACKGROUND: Oestrogen receptor 1 ( ESR1) is located in region 6q25.1 and encodes a ligand-activated transcription factor composed of several domains important for hormone binding and transcription activation. Progesterone receptor ( PGR) is located in 11q22-23 and mediates the role of progesterone interacting with different transcriptional co-regulators. ESR1 and PGR have previously been implicated in migraine susceptibility. Here, we report the results of an association study of these genes in a migraine pedigree from the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island, a population descended from a small number of Isle of Man "Bounty Mutineer" and Tahitian founders.