A national program of research for soil and land use /

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A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia

An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.

Effects of group status on responses to sustainable land use campaigns

A number of survey studies were conducted with landholders throughout Queensland to assess the effectiveness and perceived influence of campaigns promotng sustainable land use. While previous studies have addressed the role of group membership in persuasive communications, the current line of research extends this by focusing on the intergroup context, namely, the perceptions of group status. Across a range of samples it was found that landholders' perceptions of lower status in relation to urban people were associated with increased support for ingroup messages and decreased support for outgroup messages. These results are broadly consistent with research that suggests that threats to group identity (such as an infiuence attempt by a higher status group) will be responded to in a negative way and highlights the importance of considering relations between groups when attempting to change attiutudes.

Standing in front of bulldozers? Explaining policy stability in land use planning

Policy towards planning presents scholars of politics and public policy with a significant puzzle. Since 1947, there has been a surprising level of stability in the system used to plan the use of land. On the other hand, there has been growing evidence that insufficient land has been released for development. The paper considers the question why, in spite of the planning system demonstrably failing to allocate sufficient land, fundamental reform of the system has not been achieved. In answering the question, the paper considers in particular attempts at reform under the Labour governments from 1997 to 2010. It argues that there is an interplay of interests, ideas and institutions: public attitudes, the interests of certain sections of the population, and institutions which are responsive to these attitudes and interests combined to stymie policy reform. As a consequence, radical reform was not achieved, and the paper concludes that attempt to find a technical “fix” to the planning system are unlikely to succeed. A diagnosis recognising the political and distributive nature of the problem will be required.

A methodology, using aerial photographs, for mapping urban land-use in Nigeria

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Land use monitoring in the Nigerian savanna using aerial photographs

Aerial photography was used to determine the land use in a test area of the Nigerian savanna in 1950 and 1972. Changes in land use were determined and correlated with accessibility, appropriate low technology methods being used to make it easy to extend the investigation to other areas without incurring great expense. A test area of 750 sq km was chosen located in Kaduna State of Nigeria. The geography of the area is summarised together with the local knowledge which is essential for accurate photo interpretation. A land use classification was devised and tested for use with medium scale aerial photography of the savanna. The two sets of aerial photography at 1:25 000 scale were sampled using systematic dot grids. A dot density of 8 1/2 dots per sq km was calculated to give an acceptable estimate of land use. Problems of interpretation included gradation between categories, sample position uncertainty and personal bias. The results showed that in 22 years the amount of cultivated land in the test area had doubled while there had been a corresponding decrease in the amount of uncultivated land particularly woodland. The intensity of land use had generally increased. The distribution of land use changes was analysed and correlated with accessibility. Highly significant correlations were found for 1972 which had not existed in 1950. Changes in land use could also be correlated with accessibility. It was concluded that in the 22 year test period there had been intensification of land use, movement of human activity towards the main road, and a decrease in natural vegetation particularly close to the road. The classification of land use and the dot grid method of survey were shown to be applicable to a savanna test area.

Land use change and the planning process in historic town centres

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Building homes for 'One Nation'? Opportunities for reform of land-use planning

Chapter in a report that brings together a series of contributions from major figures in urban and rural planning to consider the challenges and opportunities facing an incoming Labour Government in 2015.

Planning the neighbourhood economy:land-use plans and the economic potential of urban residential neighbourhoods in the Netherlands

This article investigates the relationship between zoning by-laws, as put forward in governmental land-use plans and the viability of urban residential neighbourhood economies. The Dutch planning tradition has long been characterized by strict separation of functions and top-down planning. We argue that profound changes in social and economic structures make land-use planning practices less suitable for the current policy formula of "mixed urban milieus". Although the residential neighbourhood might not be the location of large firms, it definitely attracts small ones, and facilitates starting businesses whose presence (and potential growth) can be beneficial to the city as a whole. We present a typology of spatial patterns of neighbourhood economies based on land-use plans and describe whether these are related to the distinctive economic development of the neighbourhood over the period 1999-2007. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.