Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

A type system for value-dependent information flow analysis

Information systems are widespread and used by anyone with computing devices as well as corporations and governments. It is often the case that security leaks are introduced during the development of an application. Reasons for these security bugs are multiple but among them one can easily identify that it is very hard to define and enforce relevant security policies in modern software. This is because modern applications often rely on container sharing and multi-tenancy where, for instance, data can be stored in the same physical space but is logically mapped into different security compartments or data structures. In turn, these security compartments, to which data is classified into in security policies, can also be dynamic and depend on runtime data. In this thesis we introduce and develop the novel notion of dependent information flow types, and focus on the problem of ensuring data confidentiality in data-centric software. Dependent information flow types fit within the standard framework of dependent type theory, but, unlike usual dependent types, crucially allow the security level of a type, rather than just the structural data type itself, to depend on runtime values. Our dependent function and dependent sum information flow types provide a direct, natural and elegant way to express and enforce fine grained security policies on programs. Namely programs that manipulate structured data types in which the security level of a structure field may depend on values dynamically stored in other fields The main contribution of this work is an efficient analysis that allows programmers to verify, during the development phase, whether programs have information leaks, that is, it verifies whether programs protect the confidentiality of the information they manipulate. As such, we also implemented a prototype typechecker that can be found at http://ctp.di.fct.unl.pt/DIFTprototype/.

GEOCHEMISTRY AND GEOCHRONOLOGY OF SURFICIAL ACRE BASIN SEDIMENTS (WESTERN AMAZONIA): KEY INFORMATION FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION.

Geochemical and geochronological analyses of samples of surficial Acre Basin sediments and fossils indicate an extensive fluvial-lacustrine system, occupying this region, desiccated slowly during the last glacial cycle (LGC). This research documents direct evidence for aridity in western Amazonia during the LGC and is important in establishing boundary conditions for LGC climate models as well as in correlating marine and continental (LGC) climate conditions.

The role of information systems in business process redesign : a case of Turkish electricity market

This study is specifically concerned with the effect of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) on the Business Process Redesign (BPR). Researcher’s experience and the investigation on previous researches imply that BPR and ERP are deeply related to each other and a study to found the mentioned relation further is necessary. In order to elaborate the hypothesis, a case study, in particular Turkish electricity distribution market and the phase of privatization are investigated. Eight companies that have taken part in privatization process and executed BPR serve as cases in this study. During the research, the cases are evaluated through critical success factors on both BPR and ERP. It was seen that combining the ERP Solution features with business processes lead the companies to be successful in ERP and BPR implementation. When the companies’ success and efficiency were compared before and after the ERP implementation, a considerable change was observed in organizational structure. It was spotted that the team composition is important in the success of ERP projects. Additionally, when the ERP is in driver or enabler role, the companies can be considered successful. On the contrary, when the ERP has a neutral role of business processes, the project fails. In conclusion, it can be said that the companies, which have implemented the ERP successfully, have accomplished the goals of the BPR.

How to improve urban mobility in Lisbon: intermodality and information and ticketing systems

Urban mobility is one of the main challenges facing urban areas due to the growing population and to traffic congestion, resulting in environmental pressures. The pathway to urban sustainable mobility involves strengthening of intermodal mobility. The integrated use of different transport modes is getting more and more important and intermodality has been mentioned as a way for public transport compete with private cars. The aim of the current dissertation is to define a set of strategies to improve urban mobility in Lisbon and by consequence reduce the environmental impacts of transports. In order to do that several intermodal practices over Europe were analysed and the transport systems of Brussels and Lisbon were studied and compared, giving special attention to intermodal systems. In the case study was gathered data from both cities in the field, by using and observing the different transport modes, and two surveys were done to the cities users. As concluded by the study, Brussels and Lisbon present significant differences. In Brussels the measures to promote intermodality are evident, while in Lisbon a lot still needs to be done. It also made clear the necessity for improvements in Lisbon’s public transports to a more intermodal passenger transport system, through integration of different transport modes and better information and ticketing system. Some of the points requiring developments are: interchanges’ waiting areas; integration of bicycle in public transport; information about correspondences with other transport modes; real-time information to passengers pre-trip and on-trip, especially in buses and trams. After the identification of the best practices in Brussels and the weaknesses in Lisbon the possibility of applying some of the practices in Brussels to Lisbon was evaluated. Brussels demonstrated to be a good example of intermodality and for that reason some of the recommendations to improve intermodal mobility in Lisbon can follow the practices in place in Brussels.

Design of a case-based reasoner for information security in military organizations

Information security is concerned with the protection of information, which can be stored, processed or transmitted within critical information systems of the organizations, against loss of confidentiality, integrity or availability. Protection measures to prevent these problems result through the implementation of controls at several dimensions: technical, administrative or physical. A vital objective for military organizations is to ensure superiority in contexts of information warfare and competitive intelligence. Therefore, the problem of information security in military organizations has been a topic of intensive work at both national and transnational levels, and extensive conceptual and standardization work is being produced. A current effort is therefore to develop automated decision support systems to assist military decision makers, at different levels in the command chain, to provide suitable control measures that can effectively deal with potential attacks and, at the same time, prevent, detect and contain vulnerabilities targeted at their information systems. The concept and processes of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) methodology outstandingly resembles classical military processes and doctrine, in particular the analysis of “lessons learned” and definition of “modes of action”. Therefore, the present paper addresses the modeling and design of a CBR system with two key objectives: to support an effective response in context of information security for military organizations; to allow for scenario planning and analysis for training and auditing processes.

Aplicação do Building Information Modeling na gestão de projetos de construção

Dissertação de mestrado em Construção e Reabilitação Sustentáveis

Information systems assessment in pathologic anatomy service

Information technologies changed the way of how the health organizations work, contributing to their effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability. Hospital Information Systems (HIS) are emerging on all of health institutions, helping health professionals and patients. However, HIS are not always implemented and used in the best way, leading to low levels of benefits and acceptance by users of these systems. In order to mitigate this problem, it is essential to take measures able to ensure if the HIS and their interfaces are designed in a simple and interactive way. With this in mind, a study to measure the user satisfaction and their opinion was made. It was applied the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) on a HIS implemented on various hospital centers (AIDA), being used the Pathologic Anatomy Service. The study identified weakness and strengths features of AIDA and it pointed some solutions to improve the medical record.

Measurement of the top pair production cross-section in 8 TeV proton-proton collisions using kinematic information in the lepton+jets final state with ATLAS

A measurement is presented of the tt¯ inclusive production cross section in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s√=8  TeV using data collected by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement was performed in the lepton+jets final state using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1. The cross section was obtained using a likelihood discriminant fit and b-jet identification was used to improve the signal-to-background ratio. The inclusive tt¯ production cross section was measured to be 260±1(stat)+22−23(stat)±8(lumi)±4(beam)  pb assuming a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV, in good agreement with the theoretical prediction of 253+13−15  pb. The tt¯→(e,μ)+jets production cross section in the fiducial region determined by the detector acceptance is also reported.

Bimodal information increases spontaneous interpersonal synchronization of goal directed upper limb movements

When interacting with each other, people often synchronize spontaneously their movements, e.g. during pendulum swinging, chair rocking[5], walking [4][7], and when executing periodic forearm movements[3].Although the spatiotemporal information that establishes the coupling, leading to synchronization, might be provided by several perceptual systems, the systematic study of different sensory modalities contribution is widely neglected. Considering a) differences in the sensory dominance on the spatial and temporal dimension[5] , b) different cue combination and integration strategies [1][2], and c) that sensory information might provide different aspects of the same event, synchronization should be moderated by the type of sensory modality. Here, 9 naïve participants placed a bottle periodically between two target zones, 40 times, in 12 conditions while sitting in front of a confederate executing the same task. The participant could a) see and hear, b) see , c) hear the confederate, d) or audiovisual information about the movements of the confederate was absent. The couple started in 3 different relative positions (i.e., in-phase, anti-phase, out of phase). A retro-reflective marker was attached to the top of the bottles. Bottle displacement was captured by a motion capture system. We analyzed the variability of the continuous relative phase reflecting the degree of synchronization. Results indicate the emergence of spontaneous synchronization, an increase with bimodal information, and an influence of the initial phase relation on the particular synchronization pattern. Results have theoretical implication for studying cue combination in interpersonal coordination and are consistent with coupled oscillator models.

Extracting kinetic information from literature with KineticRE

To better understand the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks in a wide variety of conditions, the field of Systems Biology has increased its interest in the use of kinetic models. The different databases, available these days, do not contain enough data regarding this topic. Given that a significant part of the relevant information for the development of such models is still wide spread in the literature, it becomes essential to develop specific and powerful text mining tools to collect these data. In this context, this work has as main objective the development of a text mining tool to extract, from scientific literature, kinetic parameters, their respective values and their relations with enzymes and metabolites. The approach proposed integrates the development of a novel plug-in over the text mining framework @Note2. In the end, the pipeline developed was validated with a case study on Kluyveromyces lactis, spanning the analysis and results of 20 full text documents.

Libellulidae (Insecta: Odonata) from Itapiracó reserve, Maranhão, Brazil: new records and species distribution information

In this work, I apply a simple protocol to species occurrence inventory of Odonata in a region of Maranhão state which has very few distributional records. Some relations between species occurrence and environmental characteristics are discussed, mainly in relation to the high occurrence of Erythemis. Eighteen new records are presented discussing the role of this approach to generate useful information for conservation purposes.

OPM3® Portugal project: information systems and technologies organizations: outcome analysis

Increasing the maturity in Project Management (PM) has become a goal for many organizations, leading them to adopt maturity models to assess the current state of its PM practices and compare them with the best practices in the industry where the organization is inserted. One of the main PM maturity models is the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3®), developed by the Project Management Institute. This paper presents the Information Systems and Technologies organizations outcome analysis, of the assesses made by the OPM3® Portugal Project, identifying the PM processes that are “best” implemented in this particular industry and those in which it is urgent to improve. Additionally, a comparison between the different organizations’ size analyzed is presented.

Implementação de um sistema de customer relationship management na broaden information solutions

Dissertação de mestrado em Sistemas de Informação