591 resultados para Inferência Bayesiana
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O vídeo mostra um conceito da lógica proposicional que é a prova por resolução. A vantagem dessa aplicação é a simplicidade, pois emprega apenas uma regra de inferência. Para verificar se o argumento é válido, por exemplo, são necessário três passos: converter cada premissa para FNC e negar a conclusão, separar as cláusulas, e construir a árvore de derivação ou refutação.
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A indústria do turismo caracteriza-se pela sua heterogeneidade e pelo grande volume de transacções realizadas on-line. Cada vez mais os pequenos operadores turísticos optam por desenvolver os seus pequenos sistemas de reservas, para não terem de estar submetidos ao pagamento de comissões às entidades que gerem os grandes sistemas de informação turística. Devido a este facto, têm surgido um grande número de novas fontes de informação turística na Internet. A proliferação de informação turística torna complexo o planeamento das férias por parte do turista. A implementação de sistemas de integração de informação turística torna-se uma necessidade urgente. Ao mesmo tempo que ajudam o turista no planeamento das férias, também permitem aos operadores implementarem novas estratégias de marketing. Uma destas novas estratégias de marketing passa pela implementação do conceito de “Dynamic Packaging”. O “Dynamic Packaging” permite ao turista, ou ao agente turístico, a construção de pacotes que incluem produtos turísticos escolhidos por este sem qualquer limitação. Aos operadores turísticos, permite a criação de regras de negócio sobre a constituição de um pacote. As regras são depois aplicadas dinamicamente à medida que os pacotes são definidos. A arquitectura SEED define a implementação de um sistema de integração de informação turística. Pretende também disponibilizar a base para a implementação de sistemas que suportem o “Dynamic Packaging”. A integração da informação é realizada através da utilização das tecnologias associadas à Web Semântica. A implementação do “Dynamic Packaging” é suportada pela utilização de motores de inferência que permitem a definição e interpretação de regras semânticas.
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O usufruto de áreas protegidas com propósitos recreativos e turísticos é um fenómeno atual e em crescimento em todo o mundo e os desportos de natureza revelam-se uma manifestação moderna destas tendências. É por isso que o desporto merece atenção nos quadros do planeamento e gestão destes espaços, temática desta investigação, e consiste num estudo de caso desenvolvido no Parque Natural das Serras de Aire e Candeeiros. Teve como principal objetivo a formulação de um modelo de iniciação à gestão participada do subsetor do desporto, desenvolvido nos âmbitos da recreação e do turismo nesta área protegida. Metodologicamente adotou-se um método misto, predominantemente interpretativo e complementado com a aplicação de questionários. Fez-se recurso à triangulação de dados como principal processo metodológico de confirmação, inferência e validade dos resultados. O corpus de estudo é constituído por documentos (n=103) e por instituições de abrangência nacional, regional e local, denominados de stakeholders (n=36). Num primeiro nível de interpretação dos resultados, deparamo-nos com um país cuja história relacionada com as práticas de gestão deste subsetor tem sido caracterizada pela ausência e por oscilações constantes em termos ideológicos, revelando-se a falta de estratégia e de coordenação entre institutos públicos os principais fatores causadores deste estado. Num segundo, especificou-se o estudo de caso e os resultados revelaram um conjunto de stakeholders motivados para o desenvolvimento das atividades desportivas, recreativas e turísticas na área em estudo, com pontos de vista consonantes e reconhecedores dos seus benefícios, mas ao mesmo tempo, fortemente críticos face às atuais condições encontradas no planeamento e gestão. Concluímos que existem condições humanas que tornam possível o desenvolvimento de um processo de gestão participativo e o modelo proposto sugere que uma série de considerações prévias devem ser tidas em conta antes da iniciação efetiva de um processo desta natureza.
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Gasteroids fungi are characterized by the basidiospores maturation inside the basidioma, from which spores liberation occurs in a passive manner. These fungi were once seen as a well definite class of Basidiomycota, but nowadays they are considered an artificial assemblage, because the organisms have independent evolutionary histories forming a polyphyletic group with a vast morphological variety. Despite their diversity, studies with this group in the tropics are incipient, and the phylogenetic relationships of the species from temperate climate remain unknown. Thus, this work aimed to elucidate the phylogenetic relationships of gasteroids fungi from the Geastrales and Phallales orders, with the inclusion of tropical and temperate species, and with these analyses suggest a systematic position of species like Aseroë floriformis and Phallus roseus, as well as to verify if the lignicolous habit can indicate parental relationship in the Geastrum genus. For this, basidiomata were collected at Atlantic rain forest areas, during the rainy season, and the specimen identification followed specific literature for gasteroid fungi. The phylogenetic analyses were performed with Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian Analysis, making use of RPB2 and 28S nuclear genes and atp6 mitochondrial gene. It could be observed on the Phallales dendogram, that Aseroë floriformis did not cluster with A. rubra, and that it has an anterior divergence from all others species of the family Clathraceae used in this analysis, assuming a basal position in the clade. Phallus roseus, which once was recognized as Itajahya, has previous divergence from the group formed by Phallus species. At the Geastrales dendogram, in the group corresponding to Geastrum genus, it could be observed that species with lignicolous habitat clustered in a clade with high support values. So, the results suggest the creation of a new genus to accommodate A. floriformis, and the revalidation of Itajahya, as well as it can be affirmed that the lignicolous habitat on the Geastrum genus in fact indicates parental relationships, and that it has arised only once at the evolutionary history of the genus
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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The present study aimed to understand how and to what extent the electronic forró, currently hegemonic in the music market in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, establishes and maintains relations of domination in the social contexts in which it is produced, transmitted and received. Based, in significant form-content, on the writings of the first generation of theorists of the so-called Frankfurt School (Critical Theory), particularly with Theodor W. Adorno, and systematically using the contributions of the Cultural Studies (from the Centre for Contemporary Cultural Studies of Birmingham) and of the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu, this study aimed to perform, in the fertile intersection of these references, a critical possibility of interpretation of the electronic forró predominantly spread in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. To this end, aiming at a better apprehension of the so-called capital circuits/culture circuits , this study resulted from a qualitative investment of research, based on structured interviews with musicians, entrepreneurs of the sector and music consumers, as well as on the analysis of the themes contained in the official discography of the electronic forró band called Garota Safada (Shameless Girl). As a general empirical conclusion, it was possible to infer that far from the significant presence of domination or mere prevalence of oppositions, there is a relational pluralism of forms of domination and ways of resistances present in the production and consumption of electronic forró, regardless of gender, age, income, education or place of residence. However, the artifices of the cultural industry has been shown to be efficient: from large-scale businessmen to small producers enabled by the so-called open markets . The currentness of the concept of cultural industry is based on the idea that its products are offered systematically (the systematic insistence of everything to everyone) and on the notion that its production primarily meets the administrative criteria of control over the effects on the receiver (capacity of prescription of desires). Thus, the Adornian reflection on the pseudo-individualization leads to the inference that even in some of the most apparent ways of negotiation and/or refusal regarding the consumption of forró, certain behaviors of the cultural industry still prevail both in the very (re)interpretation of the forró and in the choice of other music genres also standardized, rationalized and massified. Therefore, despite the absence of cause-effect relation and the recognition of the popular capacity of re-elaboration and contestation of the media consumption, some world views prevailing in relation to the electronic forró establish or, at least, support some hegemonic ideologies, especially those concerning the life style, consumption and genre relations (fun by all means). Therefore, due the massification of certain songs, some ways of dissemination of values, beliefs and feelings are potentially experienced from the electronic forró. So, it is presumable that in the current advance of the process of semiformation (Halbbildung), the habitus of a part of the youth from the state of Rio Grande do Norte reinforces and is reinforced by the centrality of the trinomial fun, love and sex present in the songs, emphasized in some constructive practices of sense and in certain flows of social significance
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The study aims to answer the following question: what are the different profiles of infant mortality, according to demographic, socioeconomic, infrastructure and health care, for the micro-regions at the Northeast of Brazil? Thus, the main objective is to analyze the profiles or typologies associated mortality levels sociodemographic conditions of the micro-regions, in the year 2010. To this end, the databases of birth and death certificates of SIM and SINASC (DATASUS/MS), were taken from the 2010 population Census microdata and from SIDRA/IBGE. As a methodology, a weighted multiple linear regression model was used in the analysis in order to find the most significant variables in the explanation child mortality for the year 2010. Also a cluster analysis was performed, seeking evidence, initially, of homogeneous groups of micro-regions, from of the significant variables. The logit of the infant mortality rate was used as dependent variable, while variables such as demographic, socioeconomic, infrastructure and health care in the micro-regions were taken as the independent variables of the model. The Bayesian estimation technique was applied to the database of births and deaths, due to the inconvenient fact of underreporting and random fluctuations of small quantities in small areas. The techniques of Spatial Statistics were used to determine the spatial behavior of the distribution of rates from thematic maps. In conclusion, we used the method GoM (Grade of Membership), to find typologies of mortality, associated with the selected variables by micro-regions, in order to respond the main question of the study. The results points out to the formation of three profiles: Profile 1, high infant mortality and unfavorable social conditions; Profile 2, low infant mortality, with a median social conditions of life; and Profile 3, median and high infant mortality social conditions. With this classification, it was found that, out of 188 micro-regions, 20 (10%) fits the extreme profile 1, 59 (31.4%) was characterized in the extreme profile 2, 34 (18.1%) was characterized in the extreme profile 3 and only 9 (4.8%) was classified as amorphous profile. The other micro-regions framed up in the profiles mixed. Such profiles suggest the need for different interventions in terms of public policies aimed to reducing child mortality in the region
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El objetivo en esta tesis consistió en estudiar el proceso de los cambios de los conceptos de profesores de la educación infantil y de los años iníciales de la educación básica referente a la enseñanza de la matemática. La investigación se desenvolvió en la escuela Presidente Kennedy, en la ciudad de Natal, en Rio Grande do Norte, teniendo como participante 05 (cinco) profesores del curso normal superior a través de la educación superior del instituto relacionado. El trabajo asocia el programa a él Programa de Pós-Graduação em Educação da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, en la base de pesquisa Formação e Profissionalização Docente coordinada de los doctores Betânia Leite Ramalho e Isauro Beltran Núñez. El referencial teórico-metodológico en quien si apoya el trabajo se inserta en la señal conceptual usada por Giordan y de Vecchi (1996), de Carrillo y Contreras (1994), Ramalho; Núñez y Gauthier (2003), Ponte (1998), Guimarães (1988), Ernest (1989). En esta investigación, los conceptos de los profesores habían sido estudiados en el contexto educativo de la formación del nivel superior, usándola reflexiva crítico práctico como estrategia formativa. Estos conceptos se entienden como estructuras subyacentes al pensamiento del profesor. Dado la naturaleza del objeto del estudio, la información, para las intenciones de esta investigación, habían sido cosechados a través de los instrumentos siguientes: cuestionario, plan de la lección, entrevista diaria y del campo. El cuestionario fue constituido de preguntas abiertas y de las entrevistas de la mitad-structuralized. La organización de los datos permitió a La inferencia de los conceptos, usando la técnica de la triangulación de datos. La investigación divulgó que los conceptos de los profesores, a través del proceso formativo, se habían desarrollado de una plataforma para otra, yéndose puesto que los modelos didácticos tradicionales para otros modelos dirigidos a una tendencia didáctica de espontaneísta/investigativa. La reflexión crítica era considerada como elemento catalítico de los cambios de los conceptos de los profesores en la educación de las matemáticas, sin embargo déjenos verifican que estos cambios son difíciles de ocurrir para la naturaleza compleja de estos conceptos. Como facilitadores de los factores de estos cambios, encontramos y el investigativo el trabajo, la dinámica y la naturaleza de las actividades se convirtió en el colaborativo de proceso formativo, entre otros. Como obstáculos a los cambios, identificamos el contexto del trabajo de los profesores, de la cultura de los individualistas prácticos de sus profesores de los colegas, del concepto linear, estático y de los mecánicos de los procesos para enseñar, el conocimiento profesional construído durante la formación inicial, alineación con los modelos didácticos de sus viejos profesores, entre otros
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The study proposes an understanding of nurses training in reflexivity and the overcome the limits of biomedical formation model, from the thought of John Dewey, inserted in the panorama of the reflective practitioner introduced by Donald Schön and dialoguing with the perspective of the transforming action of Paulo Freire. We used a qualitative approach to collect empirical data through focus groups conducted with nursing students from 3rd to 5th year in the Faculty of Health Sciences, Trairi / UFRN in the year 2012. Data analysis occurred through the technique of thematic content analysis constituted of three stages: pre-analysis, exploration of the material, treatment of results, inference and interpretation of the material. Thus, the categories formulated by organizing, classifying and aggregating the the content of the speeches to groups who shared opinions approximations of thought generating a set of categories of analysis designed from the contents. The results present the experiences of nursing students and their reflections, demonstrating that the process of reflection permeates the journey of life. It is inferred that the knowledge acquired in these experiences do not always participate in this dialogue in this formative process, reducing previous experiences in the field of exemplification of everyday situations. We conclude that it is necessary to consolidate innovative pedagogical proposals that allow the continuous dialogue with reality, breaking with the decontextualized teaching process from reality insertion of the university. Rethinking of the structures is recommended, reinforcing the break with the biomedical model and the integration of knowledge dynamically
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Trasnversal study, with the objective of evaluating the accuracy of clinical indicators of nursing diagnosis excessive fluid volume in patients undergoing hemodialysis. The study occurred in two stages, the first consisted of the evaluation of the diagnostic indicators in study; and the second, the diagnostic inference conducted by nurse diagnosticians. The first stage occurred from december 2012 to april 2013, in a University Hospital and a Hemodialysis Clinic in Northeastern of Brazil, with a sample of 100 chronic renal failure patients on hemodialysis. The data were selected through an interview form and a physical examination, organized into spreadsheets and analyzed as to the presence or absence of the indicators of diagnosis excessive fluid volume. In the second step, the spreadsheets were sent to three nurses diagnosticians, who judged the presence or absence of diagnosis in the clientele searched. This step was conducted from july to september 2013. For analysis of the data, we used descriptive and inferential statistics. In the descriptive analysis, we used measures of central tendency and dispersion. In inferential analysis, we used the tests Chi- square, Fisher and prevalence ratios. The accuracy of the clinical indicators pertaining to the diagnosis were measured as to the specificity, sensitivity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and Diagnostic Odds Ratio. Also developed a logistic regression. The results were organized in tables and discussed with literature. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee in Research of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, with Presentation Certificate for Ethics Appreciation nº 08696212.7.0000.5537. The results revealed that the diagnosis studied was present in 82% of patients. The characteristics with prevalence above 50 % that stood out were: azotemia, decreased hematocrit, electrolyte imbalance, intake exceeds output, anxiety, edema, decreased hemoglobin, oliguria and blood pressure changes. Eight defining characteristics were presented statistically significant association with the nursing diagnosis investigated: pulmonary congestion, intake exceeds output, electrolytes imbalance, jugular vein distension, edema, weight gain over short period of time, agitation and adventitious breath sounds. Among these, the 10 characteristics which showed higher prevalence ratios were: edema and weight gain over short period of time. The features with the highest sensitivity were edema, electrolytes imbalance and intake exceeds output and the standing out with greater specificity were: anasarca, weight gain over short period of time, change in respiratory pattern, adventitious breath sounds, pulmonary congestion, agitation and jugular vein distension. The indicators jugular vein distension, electrolytes imbalance, intake exceeds output, increased central venous pressure and edema, together, were identified in the logistic regression model as the most significant predictors. It is concluded that the identification of accurate clinical indicators allow a good prediction of the nursing diagnosis of excessive fluid volume in patients undergoing hemodialysis in order to assist the nurse in the inference process, which will contribute to the success of patient care. In addition, nurses will consider for diagnostic inference not only his clinical experience, but also scientific evidence of the occurrence of excessive fluid volume, contributing to the control of volemia in these patients
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O objetivo neste estudo foi estimar as correlações genéticas entre escores visuais e características de carcaça medidas por ultrassonografia em bovinos da raça Nelore utilizando a estatística bayesiana por meio da Amostragem de Gibbs, sob modelo animal linear-limiar. Foram estudadas as características categóricas morfológicas de musculosidade, estrutura física, conformação e sacro, avaliadas aos 15 e 22 meses de idade. Para as características de carcaça, foram avaliadas as características área de olho-de-lombo, espessura de gordura subcutânea, espessura de gordura subcutânea na garupa e altura na garupa. Os escores visuais devem ser empregados como critérios de seleção para aumentar o progresso genético para a característica área de olhode-lombo e, consequentemente, melhorar o rendimento de carcaça. As estimativas de correlação genética obtidas para musculosidade com espessura de gordura subcutânea e espessura de gordura subcutânea na garupa indicaram que a seleção para musculosidade pode levar a animais com melhor acabamento de carcaça. A seleção para a estrutura física e conformação aos 15 e 22 meses de idade pode promover resposta correlacionada para o aumento da altura na garupa.
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Os objetivos neste estudo foram estimar parâmetros genéticos das características categóricas musculosidade, estrutura física, aspectos raciais, conformação, ônfalo, pigmentação e sacro e predizer os valores genéticos utilizando-se a estatística bayesiana sob modelo animal de limiar, considerando diferentes idades de bovinos da raça Nelore. As informações de escores visuais foram obtidas nos anos de 2000 a 2005 de bovinos provenientes de 13 fazendas participantes do Programa Nelore Brasil. Nas análises bicaracterísticas, foram utilizados 500.000 até 1.100.000 ciclos para alcançar a convergência da cadeia de Gibbs. O descarte inicial e o intervalo amostral foram de 100.000 e 1.000 ciclos, respectivamente. As características de escores visuais avaliadas aos 8 e 22 meses de idade apresentaram estimativas de herdabilidades moderadas, indicando resposta rápida à seleção direta. Os escores visuais indicaram possibilidade de resposta rápida à seleção direta e, portanto, devem ser incorporados em programas de melhoramento genético como critérios de seleção. As estimativas de correlações genéticas entre musculosidade, estrutura física e conformação também indicam que a seleção direta para uma destas características trará progresso genético às outras. Recomenda-se utilizar os escores visuais como critérios de seleção em pelo menos duas fases de vida do animal, na desmama e ao sobreano.
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The progressing cavity pump artificial lift system, PCP, is a main lift system used in oil production industry. As this artificial lift application grows the knowledge of it s dynamics behavior, the application of automatic control and the developing of equipment selection design specialist systems are more useful. This work presents tools for dynamic analysis, control technics and a specialist system for selecting lift equipments for this artificial lift technology. The PCP artificial lift system consists of a progressing cavity pump installed downhole in the production tubing edge. The pump consists of two parts, a stator and a rotor, and is set in motion by the rotation of the rotor transmitted through a rod string installed in the tubing. The surface equipment generates and transmits the rotation to the rod string. First, is presented the developing of a complete mathematical dynamic model of PCP system. This model is simplified for use in several conditions, including steady state for sizing PCP equipments, like pump, rod string and drive head. This model is used to implement a computer simulator able to help in system analysis and to operates as a well with a controller and allows testing and developing of control algorithms. The next developing applies control technics to PCP system to optimize pumping velocity to achieve productivity and durability of downhole components. The mathematical model is linearized to apply conventional control technics including observability and controllability of the system and develop design rules for PI controller. Stability conditions are stated for operation point of the system. A fuzzy rule-based control system are developed from a PI controller using a inference machine based on Mandami operators. The fuzzy logic is applied to develop a specialist system that selects PCP equipments too. The developed technics to simulate and the linearized model was used in an actual well where a control system is installed. This control system consists of a pump intake pressure sensor, an industrial controller and a variable speed drive. The PI control was applied and fuzzy controller was applied to optimize simulated and actual well operation and the results was compared. The simulated and actual open loop response was compared to validate simulation. A case study was accomplished to validate equipment selection specialist system
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Artificial Intelligence techniques are applied to improve performance of a simulated oil distillation system. The chosen system was a debutanizer column. At this process, the feed, which comes to the column, is segmented by heating. The lightest components become steams, by forming the LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas). The others components, C5+, continue liquid. In the composition of the LPG, ideally, we have only propane and butanes, but, in practice, there are contaminants, for example, pentanes. The objective of this work is to control pentane amount in LPG, by means of intelligent set points (SP s) determination for PID controllers that are present in original instrumentation (regulatory control) of the column. A fuzzy system will be responsible for adjusting the SP's, driven by the comparison between the molar fraction of the pentane present in the output of the plant (LPG) and the desired amount. However, the molar fraction of pentane is difficult to measure on-line, due to constraints such as: long intervals of measurement, high reliability and low cost. Therefore, an inference system was used, based on a multilayer neural network, to infer the pentane molar fraction through secondary variables of the column. Finally, the results shown that the proposed control system were able to control the value of pentane molar fraction under different operational situations
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Modelos de regressão aleatória foram utilizados neste estudo para estimar parâmetros genéticos da produção de leite no dia do controle (PLDC) em caprinos leiteiros da raça Alpina, por meio da metodologia Bayesiana. As estimativas geradas foram comparadas às obtidas com análise de regressão aleatória, utilizando-se o REML. As herdabilidades encontradas pela análise Bayesiana variaram de 0,18 a 0,37, enquanto, pelo REML, variaram de 0,09 a 0,32. As correlações genéticas entre dias de controle próximos se aproximaram da unidade, decrescendo gradualmente conforme a distância entre os dias de controle aumentou. Os resultados obtidos indicam que: a estrutura de covariâncias da PLDC em caprinos ao longo da lactação pode ser modelada adequadamente por meio da regressão aleatória; a predição de ganhos genéticos e a seleção de animais geneticamente superiores é viável ao longo de toda a trajetória da lactação; os resultados gerados pelas análises de regressão aleatória utilizando-se a Amostragem de Gibbs e o REML foram semelhantes, embora as estimativas das variâncias genéticas e das herdabilidades tenham sido levemente superiores na análise Bayesiana, utilizando-se a Amostragem de Gibbs.