Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle in a high-resolution GCM

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the chief source of tropical intra-seasonal variability, but is simulated poorly by most state-of-the-art GCMs. Common errors include a lack of eastward propagation at the correct frequency and zonal extent, and too small a ratio of eastward- to westward-propagating variability. Here it is shown that HiGEM, a high-resolution GCM, simulates a very realistic MJO with approximately the correct spatial and temporal scale. Many MJO studies in GCMs are limited to diagnostics which average over a latitude band around the equator, allowing an analysis of the MJO’s structure in time and longitude only. In this study a wider range of diagnostics is applied. It is argued that such an approach is necessary for a comprehensive analysis of a model’s MJO. The standard analysis of Wheeler and Hendon (Mon Wea Rev 132(8):1917–1932, 2004; WH04) is applied to produce composites, which show a realistic spatial structure in the MJO envelopes but for the timing of the peak precipitation in the inter-tropical convergence zone, which bifurcates the MJO signal. Further diagnostics are developed to analyse the MJO’s episodic nature and the “MJO inertia” (the tendency to remain in the same WH04 phase from one day to the next). HiGEM favours phases 2, 3, 6 and 7; has too much MJO inertia; and dies out too frequently in phase 3. Recent research has shown that a key feature of the MJO is its interaction with the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent. This interaction is present in HiGEM but is unrealistically weak.

Using Distributed Temperature Sensing to monitor field scale dynamics of ground surface temperature and related substrate heat flux

We present one of the first studies of the use of Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) along fibre-optic cables to purposely monitor spatial and temporal variations in ground surface temperature (GST) and soil temperature, and provide an estimate of the heat flux at the base of the canopy layer and in the soil. Our field site was at a groundwater-fed wet meadow in the Netherlands covered by a canopy layer (between 0-0.5 m thickness) consisting of grass and sedges. At this site, we ran a single cable across the surface in parallel 40 m sections spaced by 2 m, to create a 40×40 m monitoring field for GST. We also buried a short length (≈10 m) of cable to depth of 0.1±0.02 m to measure soil temperature. We monitored the temperature along the entire cable continuously over a two-day period and captured the diurnal course of GST, and how it was affected by rainfall and canopy structure. The diurnal GST range, as observed by the DTS system, varied between 20.94 and 35.08◦C; precipitation events acted to suppress the range of GST. The spatial distribution of GST correlated with canopy vegetation height during both day and night. Using estimates of thermal inertia, combined with a harmonic analysis of GST and soil temperature, substrate and soil-heat fluxes were determined. Our observations demonstrate how the use of DTS shows great promise in better characterising area-average substrate/soil heat flux, their spatiotemporal variability, and how this variability is affected by canopy structure. The DTS system is able to provide a much richer data set than could be obtained from point temperature sensors. Furthermore, substrate heat fluxes derived from GST measurements may be able to provide improved closure of the land surface energy balance in micrometeorological field studies. This will enhance our understanding of how hydrometeorological processes interact with near-surface heat fluxes.

In situ observations in cyclones over Fram Strait

During the international FRAMZY expedition in March 2002 in-situ observations of Fram Strait cyclones were made by aircraft, ship and automatic buoys in order to study the interaction between cyclones and sea ice. The atmospheric characteristics of the observed cyclones are presented in this paper. The cyclones were generated in the baroclinic zone at the ice edge and moved NNE-ward along the ice edge. This was supported by warm air advection from WSW by an upper-level wave. The cyclones were rather small (diameter 200– 700 km) and shallow (1–1.5 km e-folding height for the horizontal pressure and temperature difference) with life times between 12 and 36 hours. In spite of the small space and time scales, remarkable extremes were observed within the cyclones. Winds reached maxima above 20 ms−1 lasting for only a few hours. The transition from the cold to the advancing warm air over sea ice occurred within narrow (5–30 km) frontal zones in which vorticity and convergence reached maxima on the order of 10−3 s−1. It is discussed whether the sea ice in spite of its inertia is able to react on these strong sub cyclone-scale processes and, thus, these processes have to be taken into account in models in order to simulate the cyclone-sea ice interaction properly.

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3).

Two new species of Guatteria (Annonaceae) from the Atlantic Forest of Brazil

Guatteria emarginata and G. stenocarpa, two new species from the Atlantic Forest in Espirito Santo and Bahia, Brazil, are presented here. Guatteria emarginata is characterized by narrowly obovate, verruculose leaves, densely covered with cinereous hairs on the lower side and an emarginate apex. Guatteria stenocarpa is remarkable among the Atlantic Forest species of the genus for its narrowly ellipsoid to cylindric monocarps of 22-25 mm long.

A new species of Lauromacromia (Odonata: Corduliidae) from Southeastern Brazil, with a cladistic analysis of the genus and comments on Neotropical dragonfly biogeography

Lauromacromia melanica sp. nov. from Conceicao da Barra municipality, Espirito Santo State, Brazil, is described and illustrated based on two males (both in MNRJ n degrees 135). The new species is similar to L. picinguaba differing from it mainly by the absence of pale spots on S3-6 and by the ellipsoid shape of metepisternal pale stripe. A key for males of all species of the genus is provided. A cladistic analysis encompassing 43 external morphological male characters carried out in two distinct procedures, the first with all characters unordered and the second with two or three state characters ordered. The unordered analysis generated only one most-parsimonious tree (66 steps of length, CI = 0.69, RI = 0.62). The hypothesis of monophyly of Lauromacromia is supported and includes three groups, one formed by the Atlantic Forest species (L. melanica sp. nov. + L. picinguaba), and another by the Cerrado species (L. flaviae + (L. bedei + L. luismoojeni)), and L. dubitalis, positioned in polytomy with these two groups. The ordered analysis also generated only one most-parsimonious tree (68 steps of length, CI = 0.70, RI = 0.67), which maintained the monophyly of Lauromacromia but L. dubitalis positioned basally as sister-group to the Atlantic Forest + Cerrado species groups. The geographic distribution of Lauromacromia is updated with a new record of L. luismoojeni based on one adult male (Brazil: Mato Grosso do Sul State) and probable first Brazilian records for L. dubitalis (Amazonas and Para States) based on two larvae. A vicariance hypothesis is proposed to explain spatial evolution of Lauromacromia, and based on current biogeographical classifications we consider Gomphomacromia and Rialla apart from Neotropical biota. Some aspects of biology and ecology of Lauromacromia are also discussed.

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability in astrophysical plasmas

High-frequency extensions of magnetorotational instability driven by the Velikhov effect beyond the standard magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regime are studied. The existence of the well-known Hall regime and a new electron inertia regime is demonstrated. The electron inertia regime is realized for a lesser plasma magnetization of rotating plasma than that in the Hall regime. It includes the subregime of nonmagnetized electrons. It is shown that, in contrast to the standard MHD regime and the Hall regime, magnetorotational instability in this subregime can be driven only at positive values of dln Omega/dlnr, where Omega is the plasma rotation frequency and r is the radial coordinate. The permittivity of rotating plasma beyond the standard MHD regime, including both the Hall regime and the electron inertia regime, is calculated.

A inércia da inflação no regime de metas: os casos da Nova Zelandia, Reino Unido e Brasil

O objetivo da dissertação é avaliar o impacto da adoção do regime de metas na inércia da inflação. A inércia é analisada de acordo com procedimentos tradicionalmente adotados na literatura, através de modelos ARIMA. Em virtude das metas de inflação não serem imutáveis ao longo do tempo, propõe-se uma metodologia para se medir a inércia da taxa de inflação, onde esta possui dois componentes: a tendência e a parte transitória. A inércia da inflação será, então, medida pelo coeficiente com que a taxa de inflação converge para sua taxa de longo prazo.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

A descoberta da inflação inercial

Este artigo apresenta a minha versão da história da inflação inercial. A primeira formulação completa dessa teoria está num artigo meu e de Nakano, de 1983; e o primeiro artigo que propôs um choque de preços combinado com uma tabela de conversão é de 1984, também dos mesmos autores. Resende e Arida escreveram em 1984 o primeiro trabalho propondo uma moeda indexada para neutralizar a inércia; Francisco Lopes, também em 1984, relacionou a inflação inercial com hiperinflação. As principais referências estão aqui claramente apresentadas.

Custos de ajustamento e a dinâmica da estrutura de capital em empresas brasileiras

Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Análise dos impactos do novo modelo de competitividade do sistema financeiro nacional no desempenho dos empregados dos Bancos Públicos de Varejo: o caso do BRC S/A

o estudo tem como principal foco apresentar uma referência de análise do comportamento individual dos empregados dos bancos de varejo diante da necessidade de adequação à estratégia utilizada para enfrentar o atual mercado competitivo. Mostra a importância da análise da dimensão simbólica para as organizações, os negócios e as relações entre os atores no contexto empresarial. Demonstra as principais mudanças recentes no Sistema Financeiro Nacional, que tem levado as organizações aí inseridas a buscar formas de adaptações, entre elas rever seus processos de gestão e de programas de treinamento e desenvolvimento de pessoas. Traça o perfil atual do Banco BRC SIA, fazendo um breve histórico e abordando os recursos humanos, a informatização, o projeto de saneamento fmanceiro e o desempenho operacional dos últimos anos. Conclui que as características culturais do Banco BRC SI A, em sua maIOrIa, reduzem a sua capacidade de adequar-se à forma de atuação dos bancos privados. Existem poucos traços culturais que favorecem a adaptabilidade do banco, entre os quais podemos citar o compromisso, a dedicação e a lealdade do pessoal ao banco (que já foram maiores no passado). Outros fatores também contribuem para dificultar a sua adaptabilidade, tais como o paternalismo, o formalismo, a impunidade, a postura de expectador, entre outras, características estas comuns às empresas brasileiras, conforme veremos no primeiro capítulo. Com relação a isto, será necessária uma forte dose de persistência e desejo de quebrar a inércia da organização, bem como uma constância de propósitos, para que as transformações aconteçam e o banco consiga se adaptar ao mercado. No caso, este deve ser o papel da liderança: ser persistente, perspicaz e flexível o suficiente para chamar o processo a si e conduzi-lo de forma eficaz. Ainda, contatou-se que existem resistências e dificuldades para a viabilização das transformações necessárias para que o banco atue como um banco privado. Algumas resistências são comuns e outras são específicas e próprias de cada situação observada.

Meta inflação: uma nova abordagem para a política monetária

Este estudo introduz uma nova abordagem estratégica para a política monetária: o regime de meta de inflação. O trabalho começa com uma revisão da literatura sobre política monetária desde a Curva de Phillips, a seguir os regimes clássicos de política monetária são analisados e se introduz a estrutura conceitual do regime de meta de inflação. As experiências práticas de quatro países (Alemanha, Nova Zelândia, Canadá e Inglaterra) são detalhadamente examinadas. A análise de séries temporais é empregada para comparar o padrão de autoregressividade da inflação sob o novo regime com o período precedente. O estudo aponta o regime de meta de inflação como uma estratégia mais eficiente no longo prazo porque responde melhor aos desafios da teoria e da prática.

Desesperança de vida: homicídio em Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo: 1981 a 1997

Esse trabalho tem como objetivo estudar o comportamento da taxa de homicídio na população masculina e sua relação com variáveis econômicas nos estados de Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo entre 1981 e 1997. Nossa abordagem se diferencia do tratamento usual da literatura pela construção de taxas de homicídio específicas para cada idade entre 15 e 40 anos. As variáveis econômicas apresentam coeficientes significativamente diferente de zero para a população entre 15 e 19 anos. Como esperado, um aumento do salário real e uma queda da desigualdade reduzem a taxa de homicídio. Surpreendentemente, uma queda do desemprego parece aumentar a taxa de homicídio. A maior parte dos coeficientes, porém, converge para zero com o aumento da idade, tornando-se não significativos a partir dos 20 anos. Além disso, identificamos a existência de inércia nas taxas de homicídio: gerações com maior taxa de homicídio quando jovem tendem a apresentar maiores taxas de homicídio durante todo o restante do seu ciclo de vida. Dessa forma, se as variáveis econômicas induzem uma alta taxa de homicídio entre os jovens em determinado ano, essa taxa tende a permanecer elevada para a geração durante seu ciclo de vida independente do comportamento posterior da economia. Utilizamos, nessa análise, uma reformulação do tradicional modelo Logit que incorpora a variável dependente defasada.

Processos produtivos e trabalho-educação: a incorporação do caboclo catarinense na indústria madeireira

The object theme of the present study is a population of caboclos that absorbed as manual workers in the saw-mills which were mounted in the highland region of Santa Catarina since 1950. The abundance of araucaria (native kind of pine) the opening of markets, and the corroboration of other industrial exploration conditions encouraged a great crowd of small en.- trepreneurs, coming basically from the state of Rio Grande do Sul, to migrate and settle down, building up a lot of saw-mills near rich forests and fields. The saw-mills started aprosperous production of timber sawn in planks. The process of industriali zation was so intensive, the destruction of pine woods soviolent that, in less than three decades, the forests ran out of tree reserves. The caboclos, absorbed as manual workers in production of timber, lived traditionally in an system of subsistense, either from the cultivation of pine the economic their land (planter caboclo) or as labourers in cattle-growing farms (farm hand caboclos). Nevertheless, the 'advantages' that were offered them by the new-comer entrepreneurs (a salary paid in money, a new house in a village, and other favours) helped the great majority of caboclos to abandon their traditional work and enlist as "workmen" in saw-mills. The new job, besides being a novelty, was an opportunity for a change in status. Subsequently, the running out of forests of araucaria and the resultant progressive shut-down of saw-mills caused the crowd of workmen to be out of imployment and to form to form a migratory flood toward the most important town of the region, Lages. The town of Lages, however, having made of the timber i ts main economic support wi thout the implantation of an alternative industry, was unable to offer the migrantssufficient 'work places'. In this way, the 'marginal crowd' began to settle down in the suburbs of the city. This study, in the context of the object theme, analyses two main questions related to the reality 'WOlLQ' and to the economic exploitation forms: ~) the relations of production in the economic regime of subsistence and in the capitalist regime of industrial production with the consequent 'positions' of the workman in the productive processj ~~) the deriving educative effects of the productive process, either in the economic regime of subsistence, or in the capitalist industrial regime. The two questions are theoretically debated andconfro~ ted with the proposed reality, giving origin to conclusions that, in a general formulation, can be summarized as follows: a) the caboclos of the highland region of Santa Catari na, when under an economic regime of subsistence, held in fee the productive processj there was a social division of the work and aclimate of freedom which made possible the development of knowledge from their life and work experience, the production of most of their tools, and the making of necessary manufactures adapted to their own surrounding ditionsi -- - --- other con- ------ b) however, these same caboclos, when absorbed by the capitalist industrial process of production - tipified by the work in saw-mills - lost the control of the productive processj this was caused by the technologic division of the work, since each man began to perform a dull and repeti tive action, directed by the speed of the 'major-saw' j man resigned form his skill and inventive power and surrendered to an executive authority which turned him into a 'collective worker'j the new productive process, besides rnaking each rnan a copy of a pattern, put the caboclos in a situation in which the daily work experiencedidn't add anything in terrns of autogenesis of knowledgei and even the environrnental educative rneans were reduced to new forrns of adaptation to the productive process, relegating rnan's inventive power to inertia.