What Ended the Great Depression? Re-Evaluating the Role of Fiscal Policy

Conventional wisdom contends that fiscal policy was of secondary importance for the economic recovery in the 1930s. The recovery is then connected to monetary policy that allowed non-sterilised gold inflows to increase the money supply. Often this is shown by measuring the fiscal multipliers and demonstrating that they were relatively small. This paper shows that problems with the conventional measures of fiscal multipliers in the 1930s may have created an incorrect consensus on the irrelevance of fiscal policy. The rehabilitation of fiscal policy is seen as a necessary step in the reinterpretation of the positive role of New Deal policies for the recovery.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth

Over the past four decades, the number of democracies in the world has increased exponentially. This project considers how democracy and FDI affect economic growth as well as whether the impact of FDI depends on the level of democracy in a country. Thus, I explore two major research questions: 1) Whether increased FDI speeds up economic growth, controlling for political regime type, urbanization and other developmental indicators; and 2) Whether an increase in political freedom helps or hinders economic growth, and specifically whether the impact of FDI varies depending on the political regime in the recipient country. To examine these questions, this paper used data from 150 countries over a period between 1980 and 2010 and utilized several models, testing variables such as institutions, agglomerations, urbanization, FDI and type of political regime, among others, for their impact on economic growth. I found that FDI does have a positive impact on economic growth, and that this impact is often magnified when it interacts with other relevant factors. I also found that, after controlling for other variables, FDI inflows do not have a different impact on economic growth in autocracies than they do in democracies. This may be partially explained by autocratic outliers such as China and the OPEC states, which have recently experienced rapid export-led growth. This suggests that factors such as education could have a greater impact on a country¿s economic growth than does its political system.

The IKK inhibitor BMS-345541 affects multiple mitotic cell cycle transitions

The IkappaB kinase (IKK) complex controls processes such as inflammation, immune responses, cell survival and the proliferation of both normal and tumor cells. By activating NFkappaB, the IKK complex contributes to G1/S transition and first evidence has been presented that IKKalpha also regulates entry into mitosis. At what stage IKK is required and whether IKK also contributes to progression through mitosis and cytokinesis, however, has not yet been determined. In this study, we use BMS-345541, a potent allosteric small molecule inhibitor of IKK, to inhibit IKK specifically during G2 and during mitosis. We show that BMS-345541 affects several mitotic cell cycle transitions, including mitotic entry, prometaphase to anaphase progression and cytokinesis. Adding BMS-345541 to the cells released from arrest in S-phase blocked the activation of Aurora A, B and C, Cdk1 activation and histone H3 phosphorylation. Additionally, treatment of the mitotic cells with BMS-345541 resulted in precocious cyclin B1 and securin degradation, defective chromosome separation and improper cytokinesis. BMS-345541 was also found to override the spindle checkpoint in nocodazole-arrested cells. In vitro kinase assays using BMS-345541 indicate that these effects are not primarily due to a direct inhibitory effect of BMS-345541 on mitotic kinases such as Cdk1, Aurora A or B, Plk1 or NEK2. This study points towards a new potential role of IKK in cell cycle progression. Since deregulation of the cell cycle is one of the hallmarks of tumor formation and progression, the newly discovered level of BMS-345541 function could be useful for cell cycle control studies and may provide valuable clues for the design of future therapeutics.

[Radiation protection in diagnostic radiology]

For every diagnostical X-ray radiation exposure the applied dose has to be limited to the smallest possible value. Within the scope of a general Swiss survey it has been found that in the various medical practices and hospitals the applied doses varied quite strongly. The main reasons leading to an overdose were the operating conditions of the X-ray and film processing equipment, the film and foil materials and improper filming techniques. The applied single dose served as a measure for the radiation protection assessment of diagnostical X-ray exposures. To prevent this in the future, individual patients who are exposed to unnecessary radiation loads should be regularly checked in quality-ensuring tests.

Under the Crimson Flag: Fahle Burman's Two Trips to the Michigan Supreme Court

Erick Fahle Burman. a Swedish-born, Finnish-speaking labor and political activist, twice had cases argued on his behalf before the Michigan Supreme Court. In People vs. Burman, Burman, along with nine other defendants, had his conviction affirmed by the court and all ten were forced to pay a fine of $25 each for disturbing the peace. In People vs. Immonen, Burman and his co-defendant, Unto Immonen, had their convictions overturned because of improper evidence being admitted in their lower court trial. Though the conviction was overturned, the two men had already spent several months as prisoners at hard labor in Marquette State Prison located in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Over twenty-five years separate Burman's two trips to Michigan's high court. On the first occasion, his arrest came less than five years after his arrival as an immigrant to the U. S. On the second occasion, his arrest came less than two years after his return to the state after being away for nearly two decades. On both occasions, Burman was arrested for his involvement with red flags. Though separated by decades, these cases, taken together, are important indicators of the state of Finnish-American radicalism in the years surrounding the red flag incidents and provide interesting insights into the delicacies of political suppression. Examination of these cases within the larger career of Fahle Burman points up his overlooked importance in the history of Finnish-American socialism and communism.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Estimation of vertical groundwater fluxes into a streambed through continuous temperature profile monitoring and the relationship of groundwater fluxes to coaster brook trout spawning habitat

We hypothesized that the spatial distribution of groundwater inflows through river bottom sediments is a critical factor associated with the selection of coaster brook trout (a life history variant of Salvelinus fontinalis,) spawning sites. An 80-m reach of the Salmon Trout River, in the Huron Mountains of the upper peninsula of Michigan, was selected to test the hypothesis based on long-term documentation of coaster brook trout spawning at this site. Throughout this site, the river is relatively similar along its length with regard to stream channel and substrate features. A monitoring well system consisting of an array of 27 wells was installed to measure subsurface temperatures underneath the riverbed over a 13-month period. The monitoring well locations were separated into areas where spawning has and has not been observed. Over 200,000 total temperature measurements were collected from 5 depths within each of the 27 monitoring wells. Temperatures within the substrate at the spawning area were generally cooler and less variable than river temperatures. Substrate temperatures in the non-spawning area were generally warmer, more variable, and closely tracked temporal variations in river temperatures. Temperature data were inverted to obtain subsurface groundwater velocities using a numerical approximation of the heat transfer equation. Approximately 45,000 estimates of groundwater velocities were obtained. Estimated velocities in the spawning and non-spawning areas confirmed that groundwater velocities in the spawning area were primarily in the upward direction, and were generally greater in magnitude than velocities in the non-spawning area. In the non-spawning area there was a greater occurrence of velocities in the downward direction, and velocity estimates were generally lesser in magnitude than in the spawning area. Both the temperature and velocity results confirm the hypothesis that spawning sites correspond to areas of significant groundwater influx to the river bed.

Characterization Of Porous Media In Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Based on Percolation Studies

Water management in the porous media of proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, catalyst layer and porous transport layers (PTL) is confronted by two issues, flooding and dry out, both of which result in improper functioning of the fuel cell and lead to poor performance and degradation. The data that has been reported about water percolation and wettability within a fuel cell catalyst layer is limited to porosimetry. A new method and apparatus for measuring the percolation pressure in the catalyst layer has been developed. The experimental setup is similar to a Hele-Shaw experiment where samples are compressed and a fluid is injected into the sample. Pressure-Wetted Volume plots as well as Permeability plots for the catalyst layers were generated from the percolation testing. PTL samples were also characterizes using a Hele-Shaw method. Characterization for the PTLs was completed for the three states: new, conditioned and aged. This is represented in a Ce-t* plots, which show a large offset between new and aged samples.

Impingement adversely affects 10-year survivorship after periacetabular osteotomy for DDH

BACKGROUND Although periacetabular osteotomy (PAO) for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) provides conceptual advantages compared with other osteotomies and reportedly is associated with joint survivorship of 60% at 20 years, the beneficial effect of proper acetabular reorientation with concomitant arthrotomy and creation of femoral head-neck offset on 10-year hip survivorship remains unclear. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked the following questions: (1) Does the 10-year survivorship of the hip after PAO improve with proper acetabular reorientation and a spherical femoral head; (2) does the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score improve; (3) can the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) be slowed; and (4) what factors predict conversion to THA, progression of OA, or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15 points? METHODS We retrospectively reviewed 147 patients who underwent 165 PAOs for DDH with two matched groups: Group I (proper reorientation and spherical femoral head) and Group II (improper reorientation and aspherical femoral head). We compared the Kaplan-Meier survivorship, Merle d'Aubigné-Postel scores, and progression of OA in both groups. A Cox regression analysis (end points: THA, OA progression, or Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15) was performed to detect factors predicting failure. The minimum followup was 10 years (median, 11 years; range, 10-14 years). RESULTS An increased survivorship was found in Group I. The Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score did not differ. Progression of OA in Group I was slower than in Group II. Factors predicting failure included greater age, lower preoperative Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score, and the presence of a Trendelenburg sign, aspherical head, OA, subluxation, postoperative acetabular retroversion, excessive acetabular anteversion, and undercoverage. CONCLUSIONS Proper acetabular reorientation and the creation of a spherical femoral head improve long-term survivorship and decelerate OA progression in patients with DDH.

MODELING SPORADIC TUMOR FORMATION DRIVEN BY TELOMERE DYSFUNCTION IN THE GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT

Colorectal cancer is a complex disease that is thought to arise when cells accumulate mutations that allow for uncontrolled growth. There are several recognized mechanisms for generating such mutations in sporadic colon cancer; one of which is chromosomal instability (CIN). One hypothesized driver of CIN in cancer is the improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres. Telomeres comprise the linear ends of chromosomes and play a dual role in cancer. Its length is maintained by the ribonucleoprotein, telomerase, which is not a normally expressed in somatic cells and as cells divide, telomeres continuously shorten. Critically shortened telomeres are considered dysfunctional as they are recognized as sites of DNA damage and cells respond by entering into replicative senescence or apoptosis, a process that is p53-dependent and the mechanism for telomere-induced tumor suppression. Loss of this checkpoint and improper repair of dysfunctional telomeres can initiate a cycle of fusion, bridge and breakage that can lead to chromosomal changes and genomic instability, a process that can lead to transformation of normal cells to cancer cells. Mouse models of telomere dysfunction are currently based on knocking out the telomerase protein or RNA component; however, the naturally long telomeres of mice require multiple generational crosses of telomerase null mice to achieve critically short telomeres. Shelterin is a complex of six core proteins that bind to telomeres specifically. Pot1a is a highly conserved member of this complex that specifically binds to the telomeric single-stranded 3’ G-rich overhang. Previous work in our lab has shown that Pot1a is essential for chromosomal end protection as deletion of Pot1a in murine embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) leads to open telomere ends that initiate a DNA damage response mediated by ATR, resulting in p53-dependent cellular senescence. Loss of Pot1a in the background of p53 deficiency results in increased aberrant homologous recombination at telomeres and elevated genomic instability, which allows Pot1a-/-, p53-/- MEFs to form tumors when injected into SCID mice. These phenotypes are similar to those seen in cells with critically shortened telomeres. In this work, we created a mouse model of telomere ysfunction in the gastrointestinal tract through the conditional deletion of Pot1a that recapitulates the microscopic features seen in severe telomere attrition. Combined intestinal loss of Pot1a and p53 lead to formation of invasive adenocarcinomas in the small and large intestines. The tumors formed with long latency, low multiplicity and had complex genomes due to chromosomal instability, features similar to those seen in sporadic human colorectal cancers. Taken together, we have developed a novel mouse model of intestinal tumorigenesis based on genomic instability driven by telomere dysfunction.

Illegitimate Tasks: Accumulating Evidence for a New Stressor Concept

INTRODUCTION: Task stressors typically refer to characteristics such as not having enough time or resources, ambiguous demands, or the like. We suggest the perceived lack of legitimacy as an additional feature of tasks as a source of stress. Tasks are “illegitimate” to the extent that it is perceived as improper to expect employees to execute them – not because of difficulties in executing them, but because of their content for a given person, time, and situation; they are illegitimate because a) they are not conforming to a specific occupational role, as in “non-nursing activities” (called unreasonable) or b) there is no legitimate need for them to exist (called unnecessary; Semmer et al., 2007). These features make illegitimate tasks a unique task-related stressor. The concept of illegitimate tasks grew from the “Stress-as-Offense-to-Self” theory (SOS; Semmer et al, 2007); it is conceptually related to role stress (Kahn et al., 1964; Beehr & Glazer, 2005) and the organizational justice tradition (Cropanzano et al., 2001; Greenberg, 2010). SOS argues that a threat to one’s self-image is at the core of many stressful experiences. Violating role expectations, illegitimate tasks can be regarded as a special case of role conflict. As roles shape identities, this violation is postulated to constitute a threat to one’s professional identity. Being assigned a task considered illegitimate is likely to be considered unfair. Lack of fairness, in turn, contains a message about one’s social standing, and thus, the self. However, the aspects discussed have not received much attention in the role stress or the justice/fairness tradition. OBJECTIVE: Illegitimate tasks are a rather recent concept that has to be established as a construct in its own right by showing that it is associated with well-being/strain while controlling for other stressors, most notably role conflict and lack of justice. The aim of the presentation is to present the evidence accumulated so far. METHODS AND RESULTS: We present several studies employing different designs, using different control variables, and testing associations with different criteria. Study 1 demonstrates associations of illegitimate tasks with self-esteem, feelings of resentment against one’s organization, and burnout, controlling for distributive justice, role conflict, and social stressors (i.e. tensions). Study 2 yielded comparable results, using the same outcome variables but controlling for distributive as well as procedural / interactional justice. Study 3 demonstrated associations between illegitimate tasks and feelings of stress, sleeping problems, and emotional exhaustion, controlling for demands, control, and social support among medical doctors. Study 4 showed that feeling appreciated by one’s superior acted as a mediator between illegitimate tasks and job satisfaction and resentments towards the military in Swiss military officers. Study 5 demonstrated an association of illegitimate tasks with counterproductive work behavior (Semmer et al. 2010). Studies 1 to 5 were cross-sectional. In Study 6, illegitimate demands predicted irritability and resentments towards one’s organization longitudinally. Study 7 also was longitudinal, focusing on intra-individual variation in multilevel modeling; occasion-specific illegitimate tasks predicted cortisol among those who judged their health as comparatively poor. Studies 1-3 and 6 used SEM, and measurement models that used unreasonable and unnecessary tasks as indicators (isolated parceling) yielded a good fit. IMPLICATIONS & CONCLUSIONS: These studies demonstrate that illegitimate tasks are a stressor in its own right that is worth studying. It illuminates the social meaning of job design, emphasizing the implications of tasks for the (professional) self, and thus combining aspects that are traditionally treated as separate, that is, social aspects and task characteristics. Practical implications are that supervisors and managers should be alerted to the social messages that may be contained in task assignments (cf. Semmer & Beehr, in press).

EVALUATION OF INTENSITY MODULATED RADIATION THERAPY (IMRT) DELIVERY ERROR DUE TO IMRT TREATMENT PLAN COMPLEXITY AND IMPROPERLY MATCHED DOSIMETRY DATA

Intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) is a technique that delivers a highly conformal dose distribution to a target volume while attempting to maximally spare the surrounding normal tissues. IMRT is a common treatment modality used for treating head and neck (H&N) cancers, and the presence of many critical structures in this region requires accurate treatment delivery. The Radiological Physics Center (RPC) acts as both a remote and on-site quality assurance agency that credentials institutions participating in clinical trials. To date, about 30% of all IMRT participants have failed the RPC’s remote audit using the IMRT H&N phantom. The purpose of this project is to evaluate possible causes of H&N IMRT delivery errors observed by the RPC, specifically IMRT treatment plan complexity and the use of improper dosimetry data from machines that were thought to be matched but in reality were not. Eight H&N IMRT plans with a range of complexity defined by total MU (1460-3466), number of segments (54-225), and modulation complexity scores (MCS) (0.181-0.609) were created in Pinnacle v.8m. These plans were delivered to the RPC’s H&N phantom on a single Varian Clinac. One of the IMRT plans (1851 MU, 88 segments, and MCS=0.469) was equivalent to the median H&N plan from 130 previous RPC H&N phantom irradiations. This average IMRT plan was also delivered on four matched Varian Clinac machines and the dose distribution calculated using a different 6MV beam model. Radiochromic film and TLD within the phantom were used to analyze the dose profiles and absolute doses, respectively. The measured and calculated were compared to evaluate the dosimetric accuracy. All deliveries met the RPC acceptance criteria of ±7% absolute dose difference and 4 mm distance-to-agreement (DTA). Additionally, gamma index analysis was performed for all deliveries using a ±7%/4mm and ±5%/3mm criteria. Increasing the treatment plan complexity by varying the MU, number of segments, or varying the MCS resulted in no clear trend toward an increase in dosimetric error determined by the absolute dose difference, DTA, or gamma index. Varying the delivery machines as well as the beam model (use of a Clinac 6EX 6MV beam model vs. Clinac 21EX 6MV model), also did not show any clear trend towards an increased dosimetric error using the same criteria indicated above.

Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Projecting a relevant "next": Instruction sequences in driving lessons

Car interaction and the organisation of multi-activity in cars have become a fertile topic of research within CA and EM (Laurier 2005, Haddington & Keisanen 2009). While previous research has focused exclusively on everyday car rides, in this paper we will analyse a specific kind of car interaction, namely driving lessons. In addition to"driving" and"talking", as the two main parallel activities in everyday car rides (Mondada in press), in driving lessons a central activity is"instructing", that we understand to be a collaborative accomplishment (Sanchez Svensson et al. 2009). Drawing on a corpus of 7 video-recorded driving lessons, we will analyse the sequential organisation of"instruction sequences", i.e. of those actions that are initiated by the driving instructor with a turn projecting the next relevant action to be executed by the learner. Learners carry out next actions in two different ways: a) as"single" actions (e.g. using the indicator); b) as a complex series of overlapping or parallel actions. We will show that"single" actions occur as responses to instructions concerning the learner's command of the car, while complex actions occur when the instructors formulate direction indications. The aims of our analyses are twofold. Firstly, we will analyse how instruction sequences are fitted to the emerging contingencies of the car ride (movement in space, changing environment): we will show that a) the turn format of the instruction initiation displays the degree of"urgency" of the requested action; b) learners have the possibility to start the relevant"next" before the instruction initiation comes to completion. Secondly, we will focus on those"seconds" that the driving instructor treats as problematic by initiating a repair sequence (e.g. an improper use of the indicator). Our research contributes to the discussion about the multimodal resources that participants can employ to fulfil a projected action. In addition, it offers insights in a hitherto scarcely investigated topic, namely the organisation of instructions and the ecology of apprenticeship. References HADDINGTON, P. & KEISANEN, T. (2009) Location, mobility and the body as resources in selecting a route. Journal of Pragmatics 41 (10), 1938-1961. LAURIER, Eric (2005): Searching for a parking space. Intellectica 41-42/2-3: 101-116. MONDADA, Lorenza (in press). Talking and driving: multi-activity in the car. Semiotica. SANCHEZ SVENSSON, M. et al. (2009) "Embedding instruction in practice: contingency and collaboration during surgical training", Sociology of Health & Illness, 31/6: 889-906.

Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimonious lake water balance model. The soil water balance shows that 370 mm yr−1 (25%) of the precipitation in the catchment contributes to the runoff and baseflow whereas 1100 mm yr−1 (75%) contributes to the evapotranspiration. A review of the lake water balance resulted in the following estimates of hydrological contributions: 55%, 25%, and 20% of the overall inputs from precipitation, surface inflows, and subaquatic groundwater discharge, respectively. The overall losses were 58% and 42% for lake surface evaporation and outflow discharge, respectively. The hydrological model used indicated a remarkable sensitivity of the lake water levels to hydrometeorological variability up to 1977, when the outflow bed was artificially widened.