Interrupting malaria transmission: quantifying the impact of interventions in regions of low to moderate transmission

Malaria has been eliminated from over 40 countries with an additional 39 currently planning for, or committed to, elimination. Information on the likely impact of available interventions, and the required time, is urgently needed to help plan resource allocation. Mathematical modelling has been used to investigate the impact of various interventions; the strength of the conclusions is boosted when several models with differing formulation produce similar data. Here we predict by using an individual-based stochastic simulation model of seasonal Plasmodium falciparum transmission that transmission can be interrupted and parasite reintroductions controlled in villages of 1,000 individuals where the entomological inoculation rate is <7 infectious bites per person per year using chemotherapy and bed net strategies. Above this transmission intensity bed nets and symptomatic treatment alone were not sufficient to interrupt transmission and control the importation of malaria for at least 150 days. Our model results suggest that 1) stochastic events impact the likelihood of successfully interrupting transmission with large variability in the times required, 2) the relative reduction in morbidity caused by the interventions were age-group specific, changing over time, and 3) the post-intervention changes in morbidity were larger than the corresponding impact on transmission. These results generally agree with the conclusions from previously published models. However the model also predicted changes in parasite population structure as a result of improved treatment of symptomatic individuals; the survival probability of introduced parasites reduced leading to an increase in the prevalence of sub-patent infections in semi-immune individuals. This novel finding requires further investigation in the field because, if confirmed, such a change would have a negative impact on attempts to eliminate the disease from areas of moderate transmission.

Integrating the impact of climate into event based failure models for water pipes

This paper presents an event-based failure model to predict the number of failures that occur in water distribution assets. Often, such models have been based on analysis of historical failure data combined with pipe characteristics and environmental conditions. In this paper weather data have been added to the model to take into account the commonly observed seasonal variation of the failure rate. The theoretical basis of existing logistic regression models is briefly described in this paper, along with the refinements made to the model for inclusion of seasonal variation of weather. The performance of these refinements is tested using data from two Australian water authorities.

Impact of child labor on academic performance : evidence from the program "Edúcame Primero Colombia"

In this study, the effects of different variables of child labor on academic performance are investigated. To this end, 3302 children participating in the child labor eradication program “Edúcame Primero Colombia” were interviewed. The interview format used for the children's enrollment into the program was a template from which socioeconomic conditions, academic performance, and child labor variables were evaluated. The academic performance factor was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The data were analyzed through a logistic regression model that took into account children who engaged in a type of labor (n = 921). The results showed that labor conditions, the number of weekly hours dedicated to work, and the presence of work scheduled in the morning negatively affected the academic performance of child laborers. These results show that the relationship between child labor and academic performance is based on the conflict between these two activities. These results do not indicate a linear and simple relationship associated with the recognition of the presence or absence of child labor. This study has implications for the formulation of policies, programs, and interventions for preventing, eradicating, and attenuating the negative effects of child labor on the social and educational development of children.

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach -- the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the SLA-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.

The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

Demographic faultlines in boards : impact of diversity and board size

Negative board diversity-organizational outcomes research findings have highlighted the importance of studying board demographic faultlines. Based on research gaps, this study focuses on gender diversity, age diversity, board size and faultlines formation in corporate boards. It proposes a positive linear diversity-faultlines relationship based on self-categorization and social identity theories, interaction effects of gender diversity and age diversity on faultlines based on contingency theories, and a U-shaped board size-faultlines strength relationship. The hypotheses were tested in 288 large companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange using archival data. The results provided partial support for the interaction effects relationships and support to the U-shaped board size-faultlines strength relationship. The findings indicate that boards with low levels of age diversity experience a negative linear relationship between gender diversity and faultlines such that higher representation of women leads to weaker faultlines. The results also suggest that small- and large-sized boards experience stronger faultlines strength than medium-sized board. These results inform practice and underline implications of board demographic diversity and board size.

Impact of community pharmacist intervention discussing patients’ beliefs to improve medication adherence

Background Adherence to evidence based medicines in patients who have experienced a myocardial infarction remains low. Individual’s beliefs towards their medicines are a strong predictor of adherence and may influence other factors that impact on adherence. Objective To investigate if community pharmacists discussing patients’ beliefs about their medicines improved medication adherence at 12 months post myocardial infarction. Setting This study included 200 patients discharged from a public teaching hospital in Queensland, Australia, following a myocardial infarction. Patients were randomised into intervention (n = 100) and control groups (n = 100) and followed for 12 months. Method All patients were interviewed between 5 to 6 weeks, at 6 and 12 months post discharge by the researcher using the repertory grid technique. This technique was used to elicit the patient’s individualised beliefs about their medicines for their myocardial infarction. In the intervention group, patients’ beliefs about their medicines were communicated by the researcher to their community pharmacist. The pharmacist used this information to tailor their discussion with the patient about their medication beliefs at designated time points (3 and 6 months post discharge). The control group was provided with usual care. Main outcome measure The difference in non-adherence measured using a medication possession ratio between the intervention and control groups at 12 months post myocardial infarction. Results There were 137 patients remaining in the study (intervention group n = 72, control group n = 65) at 12 months. In the intervention group 29 % (n = 20) of patients were non-adherent compared to 25 % (n = 16) of patients in control group. Conclusion Discussing patients’ beliefs about their medicines for their myocardial infarction did not improve medication adherence. Further research on patients beliefs should focus on targeting non-adherent patients whose reasons for their non-adherence is driven by their medication beliefs.

The impact of litigation risk on the strategic timing of management earnings forecasts

This paper examines whether managers strategically time their earnings forecasts (MEFs) as litigation risk increases. We find as litigation risk increases, the propensity to release a delayed forecast until after the market is closed (AMC) or a Friday decreases but not proportionally more for bad news than for good news. Host costly this behaviour is to investors is questionable as share price returns do not reveal any under-reaction to strategically timed bad news MEF released AMC. We also find evidence consistent with managers timing their MEFs during a natural no-trading period to better disseminate information.

An observational analysis of the impact of board dynamics and directors’ participation on perceived board effectiveness

This study addresses calls for closer examination of board dynamics by offering an inside view of director interactions. Video-observations of three board meetings at each of two Australian corporations matched with director interviews and secondary data reveal distinct patterns of director interactions, their sources of variation and impact on perceived board effectiveness. Our data reveal that director interactions are multi-dimensional and dynamic: while group interactions across agenda items are similar, with a few directors leading the discussion, the contributing directors change across items. Moreover, directors’ inclusiveness and evenness of participation are associated with higher perceptions of board effectiveness. Last, we find that director interactions change with the nature of the items, board climate and board meeting arrangements. The study contributes to the literature by moving beyond the individual-level analysis of directors’ skills or independence, and offering a detailed view of how the joint group and individual dimensions of board dynamics affect board functioning.

Impact of al passivation and cosputter on the structural property of β-FeSi2 for Al-Doped β-FeSi2/ n -Si(100) based solar cells application

The aluminum (Al) doped polycrystalline p-type β-phase iron disilicide (p-β-FeSi2) is grown by thermal diffusion of Al from Al-passivated n-type Si(100) surface into FeSi2 during crystallization of amorphous FeSi2 to form a p-type β-FeSi 2/n-Si(100) heterostructure solar cell. The structural and photovoltaic properties of p-type β-FeSi2/n-type c-Si structures is then investigated in detail by using X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy analysis, and electrical characterization. The results are compared with Al-doped p-β-FeSi2 prepared by using cosputtering of Al and FeSi2 layers on Al-passivated n-Si(100) substrates. A significant improvement in the maximum open-circuit voltage (Voc) from 120 to 320 mV is achieved upon the introduction of Al doping through cosputtering of Al and amorphous FeSi2 layer. The improvement in Voc is attributed to better structural quality of Al-doped FeSi2 film through Al doping and to the formation of high quality crystalline interface between Al-doped β-FeSi2 and n-type c-Si. The effects of Al-out diffusion on the performance of heterostructure solar cells have been investigated and discussed in detail.

Possible impact of human CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the metabolism of acrylonitrile

Case reports of human accidental poisonings point to significant individual differences in human acrylonitrile metabolism and toxicity. A cohort of 59 persons with industrial handling of low levels of acrylonitrile has repetitively been studied from 1994 through 1999 as part of a medical surveillance programme. The analyses included adduct determinations of N-terminal N-(cyanoethyl)valine in haemoglobin and genotypings of the following cytochrome P-450 2E1 (CYP2E1) polymorphisms: G-1259C and C-1019T (two subjects heterozygous), A-316G (three subjects heterozygous), T-297A (15 subjects heterozygous), G-35T (eight subjects heterozygous), G4804A (two subjects heterozygous), T7668A (six subjects heterozygous). N-(Cyanoethyl)valine adduct levels were, if any, only slightly influenced by smoking and mainly determined by the external acrylonitrile exposures. The individual means and medians of N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels over the entire observation period were compared with the CYP2E1 variants (Wilcoxon rank sum test). No influences of the investigated CYP2E1 polymorphisms on the N-(cyanoethyl)valine levels appeared at the 5% level. However, there was a trend, at a level of P≃0.1, pointing to higher acrylonitrile-specific adduct levels in persons with the A-316G mutation. Higher adduct levels would be compatible with a slower CYP2E1-mediated metabolism of acrylonitrile and with lower extents of toxification to cyanide.

Exploring the impact of shared domain knowledge on strategic alignment in the Australian public sector

In this age of ever-increasing information technology (IT) driven environments, governments/or public sector organisations (PSOs) are expected to demonstrate the business value of the investment in IT and take advantage of the opportunities offered by technological advancements. Strategic alignment (SA) emerged as a mechanism to bridge the gap between business and IT missions, objectives, and plans in order to ensure value optimisation from investment in IT and enhance organisational performance. However, achieving and sustaining SA remains a challenge requiring even more agility nowadays to keep up with turbulent organisational environments. The shared domain knowledge (SDK) between the IT department and other diverse organisational groups is considered as one of the factors influencing the successful implementation of SA. However, SDK in PSOs has received relatively little empirical attention. This paper presents findings from a study which investigated the influence of SDK on SA within organisations in the Australian public sector. The developed research model examined the relationship of SDK between business and IT domains with SA using a survey of 56 public sector professionals and executives. A key research contribution is the empirical demonstration that increasing levels of SDK between IT and business groups leads to increased SA.

Remodelling the malignant phenotype : impact of EMT

Epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) is a highly conserved programme of events essential for normal development. As it underpins cell plasticity, migration and invasion in a number of settings it is an attractive concept to apply to the malignant phenotype. Much is known about the molecular events regulating EMT in a number of model organisms, including Drosophila, sea urchin, zebrafish, xenopus and the chick. It is increasingly apparent that EMT is a highly conserved process, and that discoveries made in these systems provide excellent insights into the understanding of the role of EMT in human malignancies.