Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease

Aims/hypothesis: Subclinical left ventricular (LV) dysfunction has been shown by tissue Doppler and strain imaging in diabetic patients in the absence of coronary disease or LV hypertrophy, but the prevalence and aetiology of this finding remain unclear. This study sought to identify the prevalence and the determinants of subclinical diabetic heart disease. Methods: A group of 219 unselected patients with type 2 diabetes without known cardiac disease underwent resting and stress echocardiography. After exclusion of coronary artery disease or LV hypertrophy, the remaining 120 patients ( age 57 +/- 10 years, 73 male) were studied with tissue Doppler imaging. Peak systolic strain of each wall and systolic (Sm) and diastolic ( Em) velocity of each basal segment were measured from the three apical views and averaged for each patient. Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was identified according to Sm and Em normal ranges adjusted by age and sex. Strain and Em were correlated with clinical, therapeutic, echocardiographic and biochemical variables, and significant independent associations were sought using a multiple linear regressionmodel. Results: Significant subclinical LV dysfunction was present in 27% diabetic patients. Myocardial systolic dysfunction by peak strain was independently associated with glycosylated haemoglobin level ( p< 0.001) and lack of angiotensin- converting enzyme inhibitor treatment ( p= 0.003). Myocardial diastolic function ( Em) was independently predicted by age ( p= 0.013), hypertension ( p= 0.001), insulin ( p= 0.008) and metformin ( p= 0.01) treatment. Conclusions/ interpretation: In patients with diabetes mellitus, subclinical LV dysfunction is common and associated with poor diabetic control, advancing age, hypertension and metformin treatment; ACE inhibitor and insulin therapies appear to be protective.

Screening for heart disease in diabetic subjects

Background The prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), coronary artery disease, and subclinical cardiomyopathy in diabetic patients without known cardiac disease is unclear. We sought the frequency of these findings to determine whether plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) could be used as an alternative screening tool to identify subclinical LV dysfunction. Methods Asymptomatic patients with diabetes mellitus without known cardiac disease (n = 10 1) underwent clinical evaluation, measurement of BNP, exercise stress testing, and detailed echocardiographic assessment. After exclusion of overt dysfunction or ischemia, subclinical myocardial function was sought on the basis of myocardial systolic (Sm) and diastolic velocity (Em). Association was. sought between subclinical dysfunction and clinical, biochemical, exercise, and echocardiographic variables. Results Of 101 patients, 22 had LVH and 16 had ischemia evidenced by exercise-induced wall motion abnormalities. Only 4 patients had abnormal BNP levels; BNP was significantly increased in patients with LVH. After exclusion of LVH and coronary artery disease, subclinical cardiomyopathy was identified in 24 of 66 patients: Subclinical disease could not be predicted by BNP. Conclusions Even after exclusion of asymptomatic ischemia and hypertrophy, subclinical systolic and diastolic dysfunction occurs in a significant number of patients with type 2 diabetes. However, screening approaches, including BNP, do not appear to be sufficiently sensitive to identify subclinical dysfunction, which requires sophisticated echocardiographic analysis.

Mapping the emergence of heart disease in a black, urban population in Africa: The Heart of Soweto Study

Background: There is increasing evidence that many populations in the developing world are in epidemiologic transition with the subsequent emergence of more affluent disease states. The Heart of Soweto Study will systematically investigate the emergence of heart disease (HD) in a large urban population in South Africa. Methods: Part of the conurbation of Johannesburg, South Africa, Soweto is a predominantly Black African community of I million individuals. During an initial two year period, all individuals presenting to the local Baragwanath Hospital (3500 beds) with any form of HD will be studied. Demographic and diagnostic coding data in those with pre-established HD will form an abbreviated clinical registry of > 12,000 prevalent cases. Similarly, socio-demographic, clinical and diagnostic data (e.g. echocardiography and ECG) in newly diagnosed patients will form a more detailed clinical registry of > 5000 incident cases. Sub-studies of the relationship between HIV status and H D and the optimal management of chronic heart failure will also be performed. Results: These data will provide a unique insight into the causes and consequences of a broad spectrum of HD-related conditions in a developing world community in epidemiologic transition. Initially documented Population rates, in addition to detailed examinations of the underlying risk factors and causes of HD-related morbidity/mortality will provide an important platform for future stages of the study: a community-based, population screening program and culturally specific primary and secondary programs of care. Conclusion: There is an urgent need to systematically track the emergence of HD in the developing world. Initially involving more than 15,000 individuals, the unique Heart of Soweto Study has the potential to provide a wealth of information in this regard. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diabetic heart disease

Diabetes mellitus is responsible for a spectrum of cardiovascular disease. The best known complications arise from endothelial dysfunction, oxidation, inflammation, and vascular remodelling and contribute to atherogenesis. However, the effects on the heart also relate to concurrent hypertensive heart disease, as well as direct effects of diabetes on the myocardium. Diabetic heart disease, defined as myocardial disease in patients with diabetes that cannot be ascribed to hypertension, coronary artery disease, or other known cardiac disease, is reviewed.

Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

Structural ambiguity of the Chinese version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in patients with coronary heart disease

Background The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is a widely used screening tool designed as a case detector for clinically relevant anxiety and depression. Recent studies of the HADS in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in European countries suggest it comprises three, rather than two, underlying sub-scale dimensions. The factor structure of the Chinese version of the HADS was evaluated in patients with CHD in mainland China. Methods Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was conducted on self-report HADS forms from 154 Chinese CHD patients. Results Little difference was observed in model fit between best performing three-factor and two-factor models. Conclusion The current observations are inconsistent with recent studies highlighting a dominant underlying tri-dimensional structure to the HADS in CHD patients. The Chinese version of the HADS may perform differently to European language versions of the instrument in patients with CHD.