Latin America and the Caribbean: options to reduce the debt burden

This document contains the Secretariat's considered point of view, as perceived from a Latin American and Caribbean vantage point, on how the debt overhang could be dealt with constructively and consensually. In the absence of better and more equitable management of the problem, it is difficult to see how development can be put back on track in the present decade.

Climate change in Central América: Potential impacts and public policy options

Since 2008 we have supported the collaborative initiative "Economics of Climate Change in Central America" aimed at demonstrating the impacts of climate variability and change and fostering a discussion on public policies in key sectors. The initiative has been led by the Ministries of Environment and Treasury or Finance of Central America, with the support of their ministerial councils, CCAD, COSEFIN, and Economic Integration Secretariat, SIECA. The Ministries of Agriculture and of Health, with their councils, CAC and COMISCA, have also joined the effort; and the Dominican Republic came on board in 2015.

Options for the Control of Disease 3: Targeting the Environment

Management of wildlife disease can be targeted at pathogens, hosts or vector populations, but may also focus on the environment. As constituent elements of any given environment, resident wildlife populations, and their pathogens, may be profoundly influenced by environmental change, in terms of their abundance, distribution and behavior. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that incorporation of environmental manipulation into a program to control wildlife diseases may potentially result in outcomes as effective as direct intervention aimed at hosts, pathogens and vectors.

RP94-217 No. 18 Use of Crop Futures and Options by the Nontrader

Crop producers make a number of decisions that are market related. They may be categorized as financial decisions, production decisions, or marketing decisions. All three decisions depend on what prices are likely to be at some specific time in the future. The marketing decisions is complex. This research publication discusses the number of alternatives that are available even for the producer who does not directly buy or sell futures or options contracts.

Cancer-related deaths among different treatment options in chronic coronary artery disease: results of a 6-year follow-up of the MASS II study

Introduction The primary end points of randomized clinical trials evaluating the outcome of therapeutic strategies for coronary artery disease (CAD) have included nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, the need for further revascularization, and overall mortality. Noncardiac causes of death may distort the interpretation of the long-term effects of coronary revascularization. Materials and methods This post-hoc analysis of the second Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study evaluates the cause of mortality of patients with multivessel CAD undergoing medical treatment, percutaneous coronary intervention, or surgical myocardial revascularization [coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG)] after a 6-year follow-up. Mortality was classified as cardiac and noncardiac death, and the causes of noncardiac death were reported. Results Patients were randomized into CABG and non-CABG groups (percutaneous coronary intervention plus medical treatment). No statistical differences were observed in overall mortality (P = 0.824). A significant difference in the distribution of causes of mortality was observed among the CABG and non-CABG groups (P = 0.003). In the CABG group, of the 203 randomized patients, the overall number of deaths was 34. Sixteen patients (47.1%) died of cardiac causes and 18 patients (52.9%) died of noncardiac causes. Of these, seven deaths (20.6%) were due to neoplasia. In the non-CABG group, comprising 408 patients, the overall number of deaths was 69. Fifty-three patients (77%) died of cardiac causes and 16 patients (23%) died of noncardiac causes. Only five deaths (7.2%) were due to neoplasia. Conclusion Different treatment options for multivessel coronary artery disease have similar overall mortality: CABG patients had the lowest incidence of cardiac death, but the highest incidence of noncardiac causes of death, and specifically a higher tendency toward cancer-related deaths. Coron Artery Dis 23:79-84 (C) 2012 Wolters Kluwer Health | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Le scelte di investimento delle aziende agricole e la PAC post-2013: valutazione di scenari mediante un modello real options

Negli ultimi decenni la Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) è stata sottoposta a diverse revisioni, più o meno programmate, che ne hanno modificato gli obiettivi operativi e gli strumenti per perseguirli. In letteratura economica agraria sono state eseguite diverse ricerche che affrontano analisi ex-ante sui possibili impatti delle riforme politiche, in particolare al disaccoppiamento, riguardo all’allocazione dei terreni alle diverse colture e all’adozione di tecniche di coltivazione più efficienti. Ma tale argomento, nonostante sia di grande importanza, non è stato finora affrontato come altri temi del mondo agricolo. Le principali lacune si riscontrano infatti nella carenza di analisi ex-ante, di modelli che includano le preferenze e le aspettative degli agricoltori. Questo studio valuta le scelte di investimento in terreno di un’azienda agricola di fronte a possibili scenari PAC post-2013, in condizioni di incertezza circa le specifiche condizioni in cui ciascuno scenario verrebbe a verificarsi. L’obiettivo è di ottenere indicazioni utili in termini di comprensione delle scelte di investimento dell’agricoltore in presenza di incertezza sul futuro. L’elemento maggiormente innovativo della ricerca consiste nell’applicazione di un approccio real options e nell’interazione tra la presenza di diversi scenari sul futuro del settore agricolo post-2013, e la componente di incertezza che incide e gravita su di essi. La metodologia adottata nel seguente lavoro si basa sulla modellizzazione di un’azienda agricola, in cui viene simulato il comportamento dell’azienda agricola in reazione alle riforme della PAC e alla variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti in presenza di incertezza. Mediante un modello di Real Option viene valutata la scelta della tempistica ottimale per investire nell’acquisto di terreno (caratterizzato da incertezza e irreversibilità). Dai risultati emerge come in presenza di incertezza all’agricoltore convenga rimandare la decisione a dopo il 2013 e in base alle maggiori informazioni disponibili eseguire l’investimento solo in presenza di condizioni favorevoli. La variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti influenza le scelte più dell’incertezza dei contributi PAC. Il Real Option sembra interpretare meglio il comportamento dell’agricoltore rispetto all’approccio classico del Net Present Value.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.

Analysis of cumulative effects of multiple stressors on saltmarshes and consideration of management options

Natural systems face pressures exerted by natural physical-chemical forcings and a myriad of co-occurring human stressors that may interact to cause larger than expected effects, thereby presenting a challenge to ecosystem management. This thesis aimed to develop new information that can contribute to reduce the existing knowledge gaps hampering the holistic management of multiple stressors. I undertook a review of the state-of-the-art methods to detect, quantify and predict stressor interactions, identifying techniques that could be applied in this thesis research. Then, I conducted a systematic review of saltmarsh multiple stressor studies in conjunction with a multiple stressor mapping exercise for the study system in order to infer potential important synergistic stressor interactions. This analysis identified key stressors that are affecting the study system, but also pointed to data gaps in terms of driver and pressure data and raised issues for potentially overlooked stressors. Using field mesocosms, I explored how a local stressor (nutrient availability) affects the responses of saltmarsh vegetation to a global stressor (increased inundation) in different soil types. Results indicate that saltmarsh vegetation would be more drastically affected by increased inundation in low than in medium organic matter soils, and especially in estuaries already under high nutrient availability. In another field experiment, I examined the challenges of managing co-occurring and potentially interacting local stressors on saltmarsh vegetation: recreational trampling and smothering by deposition of excess macroalgal wrack due to high nutrient loads. Trampling and wrack prevention had interacting effects, causing non-linear responses of the vegetation to simulated management of these stressors, such that vegetation recovered only in those treatments simulating the combined prevention of both stressors. During this research I detected, using molecular genetic methods, a widespread presence of S. anglica (and to a lesser extent S. townsendii), two previously unrecorded non-native Spartinas in the study areas.