Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Impact of instantaneous sea ice removal in a coupled general circulation model

The impact of extreme sea ice initial conditions on modelled climate is analysed for a fully coupled atmosphere ocean sea ice general circulation model, the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. A control run is chosen as reference experiment with greenhouse gas concentration fixed at preindustrial conditions. Sensitivity experiments show an almost complete recovery from total removal or strong increase of sea ice after four years. Thus, uncertainties in initial sea ice conditions seem to be unimportant for climate modelling on decadal or longer time scales. When the initial conditions of the ocean mixed layer were adjusted to ice-free conditions, a few substantial differences remained for more than 15 model years. But these differences are clearly smaller than the uncertainty of the HadCM3 run and all the other 19 IPCC fourth assessment report climate model preindustrial runs. It is an important task to improve climate models in simulating the past sea ice variability to enable them to make reliable projections for the 21st century.

Control and chaos for vibro-impact and non-ideal oscillators

In the paper, we discuss dynamics of two kinds of mechanical systems. Initially, we consider vibro-impact systems which have many implementations in applied mechanics, ranging from drilling machinery and metal cutting processes to gear boxes. Moreover, from the point of view of dynamical systems, vibro-impact systems exhibit a rich variety of phenomena, particularly chaotic motion. In this paper, we review recent works on the dynamics of vibro-impact systems, focusing on chaotic motion and its control. The considered systems are a gear-rattling model and a smart damper to suppress chaotic motion. Furthermore, we investigate systems with non-ideal energy source, represented by a limited power supply. As an example of a non-ideal system, we analyse chaotic dynamics of the damped Duffing oscillator coupled to a rotor. Then, we show how to use a tuned liquid damper to control the attractors of this non-ideal oscillator.

The Björling 'Opera' : A children's Nursery Academy and an Italian Conservatory in Miniature

The aim in this chapter is to develop a deeper understanding about the informal Björling 'School' in Sweden. Contextually the example is related to the micro history of opera education contributing to the macro perspective illuminating a provincial example of the concept of domestic opera schooling. The specific focus was on Karl David Björling (1873-1926), the teaching parent of the Swedish tenor Jussi Björling (1911-1960) and his brothers Gösta and Olle.   The Björling family model of opera schooling belongs to the classical canon of domestic home education which was common during the epoch. The phenomenon is also within the field of opera singing an important reference to the historical context of the Nordic opera history of vocal education.   The uniqueness concerning the Björling School seems to be the rigorous and exceptionally early training. David Björling’s pedagogy was rooted in earlier German theories of musical upbringing. It's clear from his results that he was familiar with the neo-humanistic ideal on which reformed music education was based. Of a specific interest is the term Gesang als Unterricht as a concept for developing childrens musical and memorising capacities.   Conceptually the roots of the Björling model are in the eighteenth-century Romantic view of prodigies and their abilities. The extensive touring is connected to the promotion of wonder-children, and David Björling’s educational style to the conservative Master-pupil tradition.   David Björling's vocal ideal was a part of the contemporary debate about “The decadence of the singing art”, and seems to have its roots in an older Italian tradition. There are recurring similarities between his educational methods and the didactic principles of the Lamperti School: Enjoying a revival around the late 1800s and early 1900s, it has been called the natural or the national school. Nevertheless, through authentic experiences and gramophone recordings the Italian tenor Enrico Caruso became David Björling’s pedagogical role model.

Um modelo de implementação do capability maturity model integration nível 2

Apesar de o CMMI (Capability Maturity Model Integration) prover uma cobertura mais detalhada do ciclo de vida dos produtos que o uso isolado de outros processos de melhoria, ainda assim não pode ser visto como uma metodologia pronta para ser utilizada pelas organizações. Cada organização deve mapear as áreas de processo do nível CMMI desejado (caso a opção seja a representação por estágios, como veremos adiante) à sua metodologia, aos seus métodos e técnicas de desenvolvimento de produtos e sistemas, levando também em consideração os objetivos de negócio da organização. Tanto o CMMI como as demais normas e modelos de qualidade, dizem “o que” e não “como” fazer. Determinar este “como” é um trabalho adicional bastante grande que as organizações devem realizar quando da adoção destas normas. Para isto, normalmente as organizações buscam no mercado empresas de consultoria que possuem experiência na área. Essas consultorias são bastante indicadas porque aumentam significativamente a qualidade e a velocidade dos resultados. Este trabalho pretende facilitar as organizações interessadas na implementação de um modelo de qualidade, fornecendo descrições sobre alguns dos modelos de qualidade mais utilizados atualmente, bem como modelos de processos, guias e formulários que podem ser utilizados diretamente ou como uma base para a implementação do modelo desejado. Embora se aplique à implementação de qualquer modelo de qualidade, mais especificamente, este trabalho destina-se a auxiliar organizações que visem implementar o modelo CMMI nível 2 (doravante usaremos também a abreviação CMMI-N2). Para tanto, descreve de forma mais detalhada este modelo e fornece um caminho para a implementação do mesmo, incluindo a descrição de um processo mínimo de desenvolvimento de software, com base no RUP (Rational Unified Process) e o uso de um modelo de ciclo de vida de melhoria de processos, o IDEAL. Neste trabalho, propõe-se que seja utilizado o modelo IDEAL para a implementação do modelo de qualidade devido ao fato de este modelo ter sido concebido originalmente como um modelo de ciclo de vida para melhoria de processos de software com base no SW-CMM (Capability Maturity Model for Software). Associado a esse modelo, é sugerido que se utilize algumas técnicas e processos de gerência de projetos para cada área de processo do CMMI-N2, visando implantar cada área de processo através de um projeto. Para a implementação são propostos guias, modelos (formulários) de implementação e uma tabela que mapeia todas as áreas de processo do CMMI-N2, seus objetivos, práticas, produtos de trabalho e as ferramentas associadas.

Colecionar: do ideal temático às posses que lhe dão tangibilidade e concretude ao estender o eu (self) do colecionador

Este trabalho procura dar uma resposta à seguinte pergunta de pesquisa: quais variáveis influenciam o comportamento colecionar a partir da perspectiva do consumidor? Para tanto, faz uso de métodos complementares: uso de análise de conteúdo e de modelagem de equações estruturais. As seguintes variáveis foram identificadas: ideal temático, envolvimento, desejo, prazer, permanência, ocupação do espaço e exposição, conhecimento e autoridade. O construto ideal temático foi desenvolvido e escalas para medi-lo e às variáveis permanência, ocupação do espaço e exposição, conhecimento, autoridade e colecionar também foram desenvolvidas. Os resultados sugerem que o modelo estrutural de colecionar aqui desenvolvido é consistente, confiável e válido pelos diversos critérios de análise empregados (índices de adequação do modelo; verificação das hipóteses do modelo; coeficientes de determinação; efeitos diretos, indiretos e totais dos caminhos do modelo e análise de modelos alternativos) e que, portanto, representa uma construção cabível do fenômeno colecionar na área de comportamento do consumidor e que o colecionar é uma forma de estender o eu do colecionador, de uma forma diferenciada, especial. Neste estudo esse fato foi ligado à influência do ideal temático no colecionar.

Gestão organizacional X educação a distância: um estudo de caso da gestão da EAD na Faculdade Ideal-Faci

A presente pesquisa de caráter qualitativo, realizada no ano de 2009, teve como objetivo examinar o processo de Gestão da Educação a Distância, promovido na Instituição de Ensino Superior Faculdade Ideal, a fim de averiguar à satisfação dos clientes (alunos) e da equipe gestora (funcionários da administração, professores e diretores) em relação à qualidade (eficiência e eficácia) do processo. Nesse sentido, mediante um estudo de caso, procedeu-se a pesquisa em duas etapas: na primeira desenvolveu-se uma pesquisa bibliográfica e documental para a fundamentação teórica e apropriação documental que possibilitou o conhecimento da IES em questão; na segunda etapa foram realizadas a observação participante, as entrevistas e a aplicação dos questionários na IES objeto deste estudo ao envolvidos no processo, o que proporcionou a coleta dos dados e subsidiou a elaboração do referencial textual e as análises realizadas. Após a investigação, chegaram-se as considerações de que a IES desenvolve algumas estratégias de gestão do conhecimento que viabilizam o desenvolvimento e a sustentação de competências capazes de promovê-Ia. Também se observou que o modelo de gestão adotado promove uma educação (EAD) de qualidade (eficiente e eficaz), satisfazendo os participes do processo, os quais avaliaram os domlnios de competência como bom e ótimo. Além disso, detectou-se que o ponto forte do modelo de gestão adotado está sustentado nos domlnios de qualidade associado à tecnologia. A análise dos dados permitiu algumas inferências: os domlnios qualidade e tecnologia apresentaram altos nlveis de aprovação pela equipe gestora; já os alunos avaliaram o domlnio qualidade como ótimo e os demais como bons, isto é, três em cada quatro alunos estão satisfeitos ou muito satisfeitos com a qualidade da EAD ofertada na IES, disso resulta que se sentem atendidos e satisfeitos como clientes em relação à qualidade dos serviços ofertados e as suas necessidades educacionais. Entretanto, detectou-se que os respondentes não conseguiram identificar o tipo de gestão adotado na IES. Também se verificou que a empresa não possui nenhuma forma de recompensa ou reconhecimento para gerir o conhecimento do capital intelectual institucional. Conclui-se, portanto, que este trabalho possibilitou a esta pesquisadora reflexões intensas, levando-a a repensar o seu próprio exerclcio profissionalacadêmico. Faz-se necessário também informar que não se teve pretensão em abordar a totalidade das questões que permeiam a discussão deste assunto, intentando-se, tão-somente, apontá-Ias como relacionais. Assim, espera-se que esta pesquisa sirva de orientação para outros pesquisadores na área da gestão educacional da EAD e que a mesma, diferentemente de se tornar mais uma produção nas prateleiras da academia, suscite novas discussões e novos debates na área, inquietando alguns e em outros despertando "novos olhares" em direção a uma educação a distância de qualidade (eficiente e eficaz).

Modelo de volatilidade estocástica com saltos aplicado a commodities agrícolas

Mensalmente são publicados relatórios pelo Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos (USDA) onde são divulgados dados de condições das safras, oferta e demanda globais, nível dos estoques, que servem como referência para todos os participantes do mercado de commodities agrícolas. Esse mercado apresenta uma volatilidade acentuada no período de divulgação dos relatórios. Um modelo de volatilidade estocástica com saltos é utilizado para a dinâmica de preços de milho e de soja. Não existe um modelo ‘ideal’ para tal fim, cada um dos existentes têm suas vantagens e desvantagens. O modelo escolhido foi o de Oztukel e Wilmott (1998), que é um modelo de volatilidade estocástica empírica, incrementado com saltos determinísticos. Empiricamente foi demonstrado que um modelo de volatilidade estocástica pode ser bem ajustado ao mercado de commodities, e o processo de jump-diffusion pode representar bem os saltos que o mercado apresenta durante a divulgação dos relatórios. As opções de commodities agrícolas que são negociadas em bolsa são do tipo americanas, então alguns métodos disponíveis poderiam ser utilizados para precificar opções seguindo a dinâmica do modelo proposto. Dado que o modelo escolhido é um modelo multi-fatores, então o método apropriado para a precificação é o proposto por Longstaff e Schwartz (2001) chamado de Monte Carlo por mínimos quadrados (LSM). As opções precificadas pelo modelo são utilizadas em uma estratégia de hedge de uma posição física de milho e de soja, e a eficiência dessa estratégia é comparada com estratégias utilizando-se instrumentos disponíveis no mercado.

Growth and distribution: a revised classical model

This paper discusses distribution and the historical phases of capitalism. It assumes that technical progress and growth are taking place, and, given that, its question is on the functional distribution of income between labor and capital, having as reference classical theory of distribution and Marx’s falling tendency of the rate of profit. Based on the historical experience, it, first, inverts the model, making the rate of profit as the constant variable in the long run and the wage rate, as the residuum; second, it distinguishes three types of technical progress (capital-saving, neutral and capital-using) and applies it to the history of capitalism, having the UK and France as reference. Given these three types of technical progress, it distinguishes four phases of capitalist growth, where only the second is consistent with Marx prediction. The last phase, after World War II, should be, in principle, capital-saving, consistent with growth of wages above productivity. Instead, since the 1970s wages were kept stagnant in rich countries because of, first, the fact that the Information and Communication Technology Revolution proved to be highly capital using, opening room for a new wage of substitution of capital for labor; second, the new competition coming from developing countries; third, the emergence of the technobureaucratic or professional class; and, fourth, the new power of the neoliberal class coalition associating rentier capitalists and financiers

A consumption CAPM with a reference level

We study an intertemporal asset pricing model in which a representative consumer maximizes expected utility derived from both the ratio of his consumption to some reference level and this level itself. If the reference consumption level is assumed to be determined by past consumption levels, the model generalizes the usual habit formation specifications. When the reference level growth rate is made dependent on the market portfolio return and on past consumption growth, the model mixes a consumption CAPM with habit formation together with the CAPM. It therefore provides, in an expected utility framework, a generalization of the non-expected recursive utility model of Epstein and Zin (1989). When we estimate this specification with aggregate per capita consumption, we obtain economically plausible values of the preference parameters, in contrast with the habit formation or the Epstein-Zin cases taken separately. All tests performed with various preference specifications confirm that the reference level enters significantly in the pricing kernel.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ideal Mariano e docência: a identidade feminina da Proposta Educativa Marista

In the teaching history course it s found the female teacher entering, reflecting significantly in the continuous process of her identity redefinitions and reconstruction. This entering brings, even in a silent and not explicit way, the confluence of gender identity to professional identity, in which are present the relations of the proper to female. In the mastership case, these relations are found imbricated in the teaching identity construction and in the translation of this profession as female, based in Virgin Mary, through Mariano ideal diffused by the catholic church. Therefore there is a lanck in educational historiography towards the register of female teachers presence, mainly in male religious institute, the reason of this study, in which we seek to investigate: how to explain that a female identity can give support to a highly male educational project? What relations can we establish between this female identity and the entering of female teachers in Maristas Province Schools of North Brazil? We performed a bibliographic research in Maristas Schools Libraries, of Marista historial, in Recife, of Pontificia Universidade Católica do Paraná (Catholic University), in Curitiba-PR. We searched for support in studies about pedagogy history, of Marista Institute, Catholic Church, Brasilian Education and of Women; Mariologic studies, the referring to Marista Educational Proposal, to feminization and to teaching identity; and feminist theology productions. The empirical research included 10 schools from referred province and Marista Schools from Lisbon Portugal. Through semi-estructured interviews, we interviewed pioneer female teachers, Marista former Brothers and Brothers from those schools, due to their presence and action within the study period and for the concern to save their memories about the theme. The study reveals the particularities of Mariano ideal as female model and teaching, and her presence in Marista Educational Proposal. This study, in a historical approach, aims to contribute to give visibility to the woman in history and teaching construction in Brazil, mainly in religious institutions from male origin

Compreensão do típico ideal de técnicos de enfermagem acerca da sistematização da assistência de enfermagem

This study aimed to understand the typical ideal of the nursing technician about the systematization of nursing care in the light of the theoretical framework of Alfred Schutz. It is a comprehensive phenomenological research, using the theoretical framework of Alfred Schutz. For the unveiling of the phenomenon (the typical ideal of the nursing technician about the systematization of nursing care), the search process was configured from the proposed guiding principles for a research methodology based on the work itself of Schutz held by Zeferino (2010) in his PhD. For data collection, we used the focus group technique, counting on the collaboration of thirteen practical nurses working in a university hospital in Rio Grande do Norte, who responded positively to the inclusion criteria: working in the study hospital, performing care direct to patients. Forty-four subjects showed interest in participating, being held a draw for selection of the research sample, consisting of 14 professionals, one of whom did not attend the gathering of data collection. The focus group, entitled "What I think about the systematization of nursing care", took place on February 15th, 2013, totaling 101 minutes. It was performed according to the Experiential Education Humanescent using building posters as projective technique, from the key question: "What is the systematization of nursing care for you?". In order to understand some of the biographical situation of the participants, a questionnaire was administered to study participants. From the agreement of the subjects, the focus group was recorded and photographed with the cooperation of one reporter and two other employees. We used Microsoft Word 2010 to perform the transcript of the meeting and Microsoft Excel 2010 for synthesizing the results via a spreadsheet. The study followed the ethical and legal principles that govern scientific research on humans, recommended in Resolution nº 196/96, it was approved by Opinion Embodied Ethics Committee in Research of UFRN (Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte), nº 98 424, of August 31th, 2012, CAAE No. 05906912.0.0000.5537. The analysis of the nursing staff speeches, along with the contemplation of their posters and their written descriptions, allowed from the guiding principles of Zeferino (2010), in light of the reference of Alfred Schutz, unveiling the typical ideal of nursing technicians about the systematization of nursing care, passing four themes: typing of the concept of systematization of nursing care; benefits, which resulted in the reasons to believe in the positivity of this working tool; experienced problems, revealing the world of everyday life of nursing professionals, and possibilities for improvement. It was concluded that the nursing technicians are unaware of the systematization of nursing care. However, they typify a very positive perception about the same, especially with regard to improvements that may foster care

Ultrasonic density measurement cell design and simulation of non-ideal effects

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of a density measurement cell using an unidimensional model composed by acoustic and electroacoustic transmission lines in order to simulate non-ideal effects. The model is implemented using matrix operations, and is used to design the cell considering its geometry, materials used in sensor assembly, range of liquid sample properties and signal analysis techniques. The sensor performance in non-ideal conditions is studied, considering the thicknesses of adhesive and metallization layers, and the effect of residue of liquid sample which can impregnate on the sample chamber surfaces. These layers are taken into account in the model, and their effects are compensated to reduce the error on density measurement. The results show the contribution of residue layer thickness to density error and its behavior when two signal analysis methods are used. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.